For your sake, I hope that Kevin Harvick found his way onto your fantasy lineups last week. After watching the #4 team dominate the 312 lap effort in Phoenix, NASCAR moves to the third track in the west coast swing. Although there are many drivers with favorable track data, Auto Club is a challenging track to choose as there are not too many standout drivers.
For those of you who have already dropped in the standings, there is an opportunity to gain points with riskier picks. Some of us have seen a positive start to the season and can settle on safer picks. My advice to you is to continue to front-load your lineup with the top drivers and fill your bottom two spots with budget picks.
The driver with the best numbers in California, Kyle Busch, is out indefinitely with a broken leg. As a result, I am going to lean towards drivers who have long-term success at the track. Kyle Larson and Brian Vickers have a successful history at the track, but I am going to choose other options because both drivers have limited race data. Either driver can help a lineup near the bottom of the standings. Although not my suggestion, there is value for several drivers in the $15.00 to $19.75 range, and five average drivers may prove to be an effective strategy.
The active driver with the best lap-to-lap performance at the track over the last five years is Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has ten top-5 finishes in the race in California. During the same time span, Johnson has spent 93% of his laps in the top-15 and has an average running position of 5.8. As a west coast driver, I like his chances in a track close to home. Since he has seen early success in 2015, the #48 team has a high probability for success this week.
My choice for the second roster spot is one of the safest drivers to pick in the series. For some reason, it seems to me that Matt Kenseth is consistently running in 8th place at all times this season. His numbers reflect this at Auto Club, where he has an average finish position of 8.8 since 2005. In the same time span, Kenseth has the third-most laps led. He has also seen recent success as evidenced by a 12.2 average finish position over his last five races in California. He has earned 12 top-10 finishes in his last 16 races. If you are at the top of your league in points, Kenseth is a dependable roster option.
As we continue the theme of safe drivers, Kevin Harvick has been on fire since late last year. While this race is not one of his best, his numbers are favorable enough to justify his roster spot. With only 10 laps led and a 12th place average finish, Harvick has finished near the top. Also, he has eight top-10 finishes in 16 races. Based on his string of 1st and 2nd place finishes, Harvick has to be considered as a lock in your lineup as long as he stays hot.
With a front-loaded lineup, there is not much wiggle room for the last two roster spots. Cole Whitt finished in 18th place last year. While, I am not anticipating a repeat finish, there is enough potential reward for his bargain price. For the same reason, the 5th roster spot will go to Michael Annett. Annett finished in 19th place last year. Like Whitt, the sample size is small, but worth the risk at a low dollar value.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five races at a given track. Then, we divide this number by the salary cap number in Fantasy Live. The end result is a number that shows which drivers should provide value for your salary cap budget each week. Carl Edwards has decent numbers at Auto Club, and we will use his numbers at the track to illustrate the formula.
CARL EDWARDS AT AUTO CLUB
- Average finish position last five Auto Club races: 11.8 equals 32.2 points per race
- Start-to-finish position last five Auto Club races: Plus 4.8 equals 4.8 points per race
- Total laps led last five Auto Club races: 0 laps equals 0 points per race
- Fast laps led last five Auto Club races: 11 laps equals 1.1 points per race
- Total points per race: 38.1 points
- Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $22.00
- Fantasy Live points per dollar: 38.1/ 22 = 1.73
The points per race for each driver this week is listed below. Suggested drivers are highlighted in bold. Good luck in the fifth week of the Fantasy NASCAR season.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Jimmie Johnson 2.10
- Kyle Larson 2.00
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.59
- Jeff Gordon 1.57
- Kevin Harvick 1.39
- Matt Kenseth 1.30
- Kasey Kahne 1.15
- Jamie McMurray 0.86
- Denny Hamlin 0.65
- Joey Logano 0.61
- Brad Keselowski 0.54
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Kurt Busch 2.00
- Paul Menard 1.81
- Ryan Newman 1.75
- Carl Edwards 1.73
- Clint Bowyer 1.52
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Tony Stewart 2.85
- Brian Vickers 2.61
- Austin Dillon 2.37
- Sam Hornish Jr. 2.21
- AJ Allmendinger 2.18
- Martin Truex Jr. 1.32
- Aric Almirola 0.69
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- Danica Patrick 3.00
- Casey Mears 1.99
- David Gilliland 1.93
- David Ragan 1.71
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.43
- Trevor Bayne 0.97
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Alex Bowman 5.33
- Cole Whitt 4.80
- Michael Annett 3.74
- Brett Moffitt 3.50*
- Mike Bliss 2.29*
- Landon Cassill 2.18
- Matt DiBenedetto 1.71*
- Josh Wise 1.52*
- JJ Yeley 1.49
- Brian Scott 1.42
- JJ Yeley 1.35*
- Reed Sorenson (-0.88)*
- Brandan Gaughan (-0.95)
- Mike Wallace (-2.08)*
* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.