Tag: Daytona

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Daytona, Coke Zero 400

Post author By Bill Hnat
Post date July 3, 2014
1 Comment on NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Daytona, Coke Zero 400

After a Kentucky race that made you ecstatic if you started Brad Keselowski, we travel south for the holiday weekend to Daytona. Daytona is one of the most exciting tracks of the season and will make you want to tear your hair out in Fantasy NASCAR. With restrictor plates, big crashes, and unpredictable results, the end result is that choosing a successful lineup has more to do with luck than skill. The good news is that there are plenty of low cost options with the ability to finish in the top twenty. This week provides a great opportunity to gain or lose on your opponents.

The driver with the most fantasy live points over the course of the last five summer races is Tony Stewart. Stewart started the 2014 season slowly, but has improved as the summer races began. Stewart has led the most laps of any driver since 2008. He also averages an eighth place finish in the same period of time. Stewart has a high probability to run near the top this week.

After Stewart, there are six drivers who have averaged a thirteenth place finish or better over the last five years. Who you choose from this pack of driver should be determined by your personal preference because little separates these drivers statistically. The drivers in this second group include Kevin Harvick, Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch, Ricky Stenhouse, and Brian Vickers.

Using the process of elimination, we can trim down this second group of drivers. Kasey Kahne and Brian Vickers have not led a lap in five years, and I cannot recommend drivers who have led fewer laps than Joe Nemecheck at Daytona. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished in 11th place last year, and I cannot recommend him because of the small sample at the track.

Because of the salary cap restrictions, we can only choose two of the three remaining drivers for our roster. Matt Kenseth has led 107 laps over the last five races, second only to Stewart. He has also led a lap in four of the five races showing consistency. With a 12th place average since 2003, Kenseth proves to be a solid option.

There is little to separate Harvick from Kurt Busch. Harvick has led a few more laps and has won two races in 2014, but I would recommend Kurt Busch over Harvick due to Kurt Busch’s lower salary cap figure. Kurt Busch has the second-best average of any driver over the past ten summer races at Daytona.

With a 14th place finish last year at Daytona and a history of providing value on restrictor plate tracks, Danica Patrick is my fourth choice for this week’s roster. Patrick has shown improvement over the course of 2014, and she will be worth picking if she continues the trend. With only $10.75 remaining for the fifth driver, the last pick goes to David Ragan, who is an overachiever at Daytona and Talladega. Ragan has averaged a 20th place finish over the last five summer races, and I am glad there was enough salary cap money left over for Ragan. I like Michael Waltrip and the Labontes as fantasy live options this week and could be used depending on how you manage this week’s lineup.

Our salary cap value formula basically determines average total number of fantasy live points over the past five summer Daytona races and divides that total by the salary cap figure provided by fantasy live on nascar.com. We can then determine how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

The Fantasy Live scoring system is a combination of laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential.

For additional clarification on our formula, please review Kevin Harvick’s details below.

KEVIN HARVICK AT DAYTONA

Total laps led at the last five summer Daytona races: 44 (8.80 per race = 4.40 points)
Fast laps: cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
Final position: 12th place average = 32 points
Start to finish differential: Plus seven = 7 points
Total points per race: 43.40
Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.25
Points ranking: 43.4/$23.75= 1.59 points per fantasy dollar

For rookies with no history at the track, we will use the data from the 2014 to help you know how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. You will notice that there is more value picks than average. This week’s picks are in bold along with the fantasy points-per-dollar for all drivers.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

Kevin Harvick 1.59
Matt Kenseth 1.38
Kasey Kahne 1.23
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.15
Kyle Busch 1.04
Joey Logano 1.04
Brad Keselowski 1.01
Jimmie Johnson 0.88
Carl Edwards 0.86
Jeff Gordon 0.66
Clint Bowyer 0.51

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

Tony Stewart 2.40
Brian Vickers 2.02
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.65
Kurt Busch 1.62
Denny Hamlin 1.44
Jamie McMurray 1.40
Austin Dillon 1.40
Greg Biffle 1.36
Aric Almirola 1.26
Ryan Newman 1.15
Kyle Larson 1.13
Marcus Ambrose 0.87
Paul Menard 0.84
Martin Truex Jr. 0.15

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

Danica Patrick 1.77
Justin Allgaier 1.35
Casey Mears 1.14
AJ Allmendinger 1.03

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

Bobby Labonte 3.70
David Ragan 3.00
Michael Waltrip 2.58
David Gilliland 2.18
Cole Whitt 1.62
Trevor Bayne (-0.16)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

Terry Labonte 4.90
Reed Sorenson 3.85
Landon Cassill 3.20
Josh Wise 2.04
Michael Annett 1.95
Joe Nemecheck 1.31
Ryan Truex 0.78
Michael McDowell (-2.00)

Tags Daytona

Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Daytona International Speedway, Coke Zero 400

Post author By Jeff Gutowski
Post date June 29, 2014
2 Comments on 2014 Daytona International Speedway, Coke Zero 400

I think things are going to start heating up in the Sprint Cup Series as we are now only nine races away from the start of the Chase. Right now we have ten different winners, so that leaves six spots up to the point standings. As of right now Tony Stewart and Kasey Kahne would be on the outside looking in, so they have some work to do. If we get a couple of new winners over the next nine races there will only be four spots available for those trying to qualify on points. That is why wins are so important at this stage of the game.

This week the series heads back to Daytona International Speedway for another Saturday night race and the third restrictor plate race of the season. Like always, these races can be one by any driver that starts from any position and stays out of trouble early in the race. That means another Chase spot can go to anyone this week. I caution those of you in the Yahoo league to pick your drivers carefully this week as this race is just a crap shoot.

COKE ZERO 400

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: I am picking Dale to come away with his third victory of the season this week at Daytona. He won the Daytona 500 this year and has finished first or second in three of his last five point races at this track. This team is hitting on all cylinders right now and has proven they know how to get the job done at the restrictor plate tracks as well as all other tracks on the circuit.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has always run well at the restrictor plate tracks and will be in contention once again this weekend if he can avoid trouble early in the race. That includes on the track, pit road, and mechanically. I think most of his poor finishes are the result of mechanical issues and there isn’t anything the driver can do about that. However, he proved how in tune with his car is last week when he realized he had a tire going down and made it to pit road before it could blow out on him and that saved him a top five finish.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin is another driver that always seems to be in contention at the end in these races. He usually rides around at the back of the pack early in the race to avoid trouble and then comes from the back to the front in the last twenty laps or so. The way he has performed this year, and all of the fast cars he has had makes me believe that he will have a shot at another win this weekend.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has put together a very nice season so far and has won six points races at Daytona during his career. Jeff seems to know who he drafts well with before the race starts and finds those drivers when he really needs them late in these races. Watch some of the practice sessions next week and see who Jeff picks to run with in the drafting session. He will find that same driver during the race and move to the front of the field with them.

Jimmie Johnson: Let’s not forget about Jimmie Johnson. With three victories already this season we know that this team has nothing to lose by going for the win this weekend. he is guaranteed a spot in the Chase and would like to get a few more wins to pad his points once the Chase starts. He has won three points races at Daytona, and Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart are the only active drivers with more career victories at Daytona than Jimmie who is tied with Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Michael Waltrip with those three wins.

Tony Stewart: As I just mentioned, Tony has won four points races at Daytona during his career and will be going all out to secure his spot in the Chase this weekend. This team has had an up and down year so far, but I think they have turned the corner and are now on the upswing. This is the type of race that Tony can win if he stays clean early on during the race and I believe he will be another driver that runs at the back of the pack for the majority of the race before making his move at the end.

Michael Waltrip: I believe Michael will be coming out of semi-retirement once again this week to give Daytona another shot. Michael runs all of the restrictor plate races during the season, and why not? He has three wins in point races at Daytona and has shown that he knows how to draft to get his car to the front of the pack. He will also ride around at the back of the pack until late in the race when he will joint the rest of the drivers at the back and make the move to the front and go for the win.

Jamie McMurray: Jamie has won two points races at Daytona during his career and always seems to have a great car here. However, something disastrous seems to happen to him during the race. Whether it be a mechanical problem or getting caught up in the big one, Jamie would like a little more luck on his side as he tries to get a win in a points race so he can qualify for the Chase.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has never won a points race at Daytona or Talladega, but he has been very good at both tracks amassing twenty-six top ten finishes in fifty-four starts. Eventually he will break into the win column at both of these tracks because he runs at the front of the pack more often than not.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Driver Group B

Aric Almirola
David Ragan
Jamie McMurray
Brian Vickers

Yahoo Driver Group C

Michael Waltrip
Trevor Bayne

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Matt Kenseth
Jeff Gordon
Kurt Busch
Tony Stewart

Dark Horse: Jamie McMurray

Stay Away From: Clint Bowyer

Tags Daytona, Yahoo! Fantasy Racing

Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Daytona International Speedway, Daytona 500

Post author By Jeff Gutowski
Post date February 21, 2014

Welcome back race fans! The first points race of the 2014 season kicks off this Sunday at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona, FL. As I was watching the Duels last evening I was wondering what is really going to happen this season. Who will win the championship with the new format where the last race of the season determines the champion between four drivers? Is this the right way to determine a champion after 36 weeks of racing? Who will be the most improved driver? Which drivers will have disappointing season’s? Who will be the rookie of the year?

Those questions can only be answered by watching the races and seeing how the season develops. The first duel was quite tame last evening, with Matt Kenseth proving that once again this season he is going to have great equipment. The second duel started out just like the first until the last lap when all heck broke loose. However, Denny Hamlin proved this week that he is back in top form after a disappointing season last year when he was knocked out of a few races and drove the final races when he was not 100% healthy after a crash that injured his back.

So, lets see what we think is going to happen this week, predict a winner and then set our lineup for the first race of the year. One thing that I would like to caution everyone on that is in a Yahoo league you only get to start each driver nine times throughout the year, so don’t use your best drivers at restrictor plate tracks! There are just too many unknowns at these tracks, and any driver can get caught up in the big one no matter how well they have run the entire race.

DAYTONA 500

Now, with that said I am going to pick Denny Hamlin to win the Daytona 500 this year, but I won’t be starting him in my Yahoo lineup for the reasons that I stated above. Denny is one of the best drivers in the B list and I will probably use him nine other times during the season. I do like the way that he ran all week at Daytona and the Joe Gibbs cars all looked good the whole week.

The driver that will give Denny a run for his money this weekend is going to be Matt Kenseth. Matt is another of the Joe Gibbs drivers that has run well all week. Matt has made a few mistakes on the track and that has cost him and some other drivers a lot of headaches. I think Matt has learned a lot like all of the drivers have about the closing rates of the cars, how they draft this year, and how and where they are the most unstable.

Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano both drive for Penske Racing and both of those cars looked great in the draft last night. Brad made a mistake on pit road that cost him a chance at winning a Duel, but I am sure that he learned a lot from that experience. I think that most drivers trust both of these guys not to make mistakes on the track, so they shouldn’t have trouble teaming up with other drivers to draft with.

Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle both race for Roush/Fenway Racing and they both had extremely fast race cars during Speedweek, but neither of them looked good in the draft last night. Daytona is all about drafting and if you can’t draft well, you will find yourself alone on the track. I am staying away from both of these drivers this week.

Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, and Danica Patrick are all driving for Stewart/Haas Racing, both Kevin and Kurt are in their first year with the organization and this is only Danica’s second full year in the Cup series. Both Danica and Tony lost engines earlier this week and that concerns me about all of these drivers this weekend. Kevin ran well in his Duel and finished second, but his car didn’t pass post-race inspection. Once again I am going to stay away from all of these drivers this weekend.

Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kasey Kahne are all part of the Hendrick Motorsports stable and every one of these drivers has had good cars this week. However, they have made multiple mistakes that have cost themselves, their teammates, and other drivers their original cars. The cars aren’t the big deal for the Hendrick teams, but they can’t make any more mistakes, because the next mistake ends their weekend.

That is the way that I see this weekend shaping up. Now I will give you my starting Yahoo lineup and predict the top five finishers in this week’s race.