Tag: charlotte

With the first cuts of the playoffs past us, the pressure is on once again for the 12 survivors to claim one of the eight available spots for the next cut.

As the first leg of the race, Charlotte should favor the drivers who have a good record on intermediate tracks. With over four months since the Memorial Day race, my only conscious memories of it were that the race was very long and Carl Edwards won. Though slightly shorter than the 600 miles in May, you should still front-load your lineup in an effort to capture the all-important laps led and fast lap numbers.

The top suggested driver for your weekly lineup continues to be Kevin Harvick. Harvick has the combination of track success, track type success, and 2015 success that provides a high probability for success in Charlotte. With a top-10 finish in every Charlotte race since 2013, Harvick is likely to run near the front of the field. He has two wins and the most laps led and fast laps over the last five races. In the May race at Charlotte, Harvick ended up finishing in 9th. This would be considered a success most most drivers, but is actually worse than his 4th place average. Harvick has a 7th place average finish position in large oval tracks in 2015. I cannot ignore his history at the track and will keep having the #4 team in my lineup.

After Harvick, the next two roster spots were difficult to decide. There were many good options, but not any great options for your roster. The choice for spots #2 and #3 were between Joey Logano, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, and Kurt Busch. With the drivers appearing equal, I leaned more toward the May race as a barometer of who to add to my roster. Carl Edwards won the May race, although he only stayed out front for 25 laps. Edwards has enjoyed four top-10 finishes in his last five races at the track. He is averaging a top-10 finish for all large oval tracks. He started out slowly in 2015, but has improved as the season progressed.

I chose the driver who led the most laps in the May race for the 3rd roster spot. Kurt Busch led 118 laps in the 600-mile race on his way to a 10th place finish. With only two top-10 finishes at Charlotte in his last five races, he has not enjoyed the success at Charlotte as some of the other drivers. Kurt Busch is 3rd in the series in laps led and fast laps through 26 races. Kurt Busch will be a member of my roster with a hope that he matches his May effort. Keep a close eye on Logano and Kenseth in practice and qualifying to see if they deserve the top spot.

With a front-loaded lineup, there is not much salary cap flexibility for the bottom two spots on my roster. I get frustrated with the caution-causing Alex Bowman during many races, but I think he could outperform his salary value this week. Bowman finished in 26th during the May race and has a 29th place career average finish at the track. If Bowman can stay off the wall and finish inside the top-30, he will provide value for your team. Michael Annett has an underwhelming average finish position of 31st in three races at Charlotte. I will check qualifying and consider a bottom driver for this roster spot, but Annett should be okay this week. As with most weeks, qualifying may have an impact on who rounds out the bottom spots of my roster.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the five best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the total number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the past five Charlotte races. Next, we divide that number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure to determine how much value to expect from each driver. Kasey Kahne has a history of success at Charlotte, but is too erratic in 2015 to consider for my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use his 2015 numbers to further illustrate our formula.

KASEY KAHNE AT CHARLOTTE

• Average finish position last five Charlotte races: 8th place equals 36 Fantasy Live points
• Start-to-finish differential: Plus 5.2 equals 5.2 Fantasy Live points
• Laps led: 299 equals 29.9 Fantasy Live points
• Fast laps: 202 equals 20.2 Fantasy Live points
• Total Fantasy Live points per race: 91.3
• Fantasy Live Salary Cap figure: $20.75
• Fantasy Live points per dollar: 91.3 divided by $20.75 equals 4.40 points per dollar

Below you will find the value numbers for the last five races at Charlotte. There are only a handful of races remaining in the 2015 season, so be sure to make your picks count.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

• Kevin Harvick 3.44
• Jimmie Johnson 2.49
• Matt Kenseth 2.38
• Kurt Busch 1.83
• Denny Hamlin 1.69
• Brad Keselowski 1.68
• Kyle Busch 1.56
• Joey Logano 1.41
• Dale Earnhardt 0.93

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

• Kasey Kahne 4.40
• Martin Truex Jr. 2.18
• Jeff Gordon 2.09
• Carl Edwards 2.00
• Ryan Newman 1.91
• Jamie McMurray 1.91
• Kyle Larson 1.18
• Clint Bowyer 1.06
• Paul Menard 1.03
• Aric Almirola 0.87

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

• Austin Dillon 2.46
• Sam Hornish Jr. 1.73
• Greg Biffle 1.00

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

• AJ Allmendinger 2.26
• Ricky Stenhouse 2.10
• Tony Stewart 2.08
• Trevor Bayne 2.07
• Cole Whitt 1.68
• Casey Mears 1.60
• Danica Patrick 0.79

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

• Timmy Hill 3.60
• Michael Annett 3.52
• Alex Kennedy 2.73
• Matt DiBenedetto 2.62
• Alex Bowman 2.32
• Reed Sorenson 2.15
• David Gilliland 1.84
• Brett Moffitt 1.72
• Landon Cassill 1.61
• Josh Wise 1.49
• JJ Yeley 1.40
• David Ragan 0.80
• Justin Allgaier 0.46

After a week off from fantasy racing due to the All-Star race, we stay at Charlotte this weekend for the longest race of the NASCAR season. 600-miles is a battle of attrition to the drivers and teams in NASCAR and can also feel like a battle of attrition to those of us watching with young kids in the house. Difficulties aside, Memorial Day is always an exciting racing weekend. Due to the extra laps, front-loading your lineup is important this week. My suggestion, like most weeks, is to choose your three favorite drivers and fill in the rest of your roster with the best budget options available.

The driver who has the highest probability for success this week is Kevin Harvick. For the 2015 season, Harvick is rewarding us with a series-best 4.87 points per Fantasy Live dollar. He should be considered for your lineup every week. Combined with his 2015 numbers, Harvick also has a series best average finish position of 5.2 over the last five Charlotte races. During the same time span, he has spent an astounding 97% of his laps running in the top-15. Even though he has a commanding salary cap figure, you have to keep starting Kevin Harvick in all fantasy NASCAR formats.

The next driver for my suggested lineup is a high-risk high-reward racer on most weeks. At Charlotte, Kasey Kahne is among the most successful drivers in the series. With a 7.2 average finish position over the past five Charlotte races, Kahne has the second best average finish position in the series. He also has the second-most laps led in the series. With 13 top-10 finishes in his last 20 races at the North Carolina track, Kahne is a lower risk than most weeks. His salary cap figure is slightly lower than the other front-runners and should provide a little more flexibility at the bottom of your roster.

With 347 laps led over the last five Charlotte races, Jimmie Johnson will likely find success this week. Johnson has already won three races this season and is one of the top drivers in the series over the last few weeks. His 93% of his laps in the top-15 is second-best in the series to Kevin Harvick. Over the first 11 races in 2015, Jimmie Johnson is rewarding fantasy owners with 2.80 points per fantasy dollar. For the top drivers in the series, he is providing the second-most value per dollar.

With high dollar options for the top three drivers on my roster, there is little salary cap room for the final two spots. I have ignored David Gilliland for the 2015 season because he consistently runs in the bottom third. His track data, as evidenced by his 29th place average over the last five Charlotte races, is not overly impressive. In 2015, he is offering over three points per fantasy dollar. Most of this is due to a plus nine start-to-finish differential. Gilliland will stay on my roster unless he qualifies better than average. I may sub Chase Elliott for Gilliland depending on practice times and qualifying.

Another driver who benefits from start-to-finish differential is Matt DiBenedetto. With a plus seven figure and an average finish position of 30th, he is providing great value in 2015. While these numbers do not sound overly impressive, the translation is 3.78 fantasy points per dollar this year. This value is third-best in the series behind Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Charlotte races. Next, we divide this number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure. The end result is that we know which drivers will provide the most value each week. Kurt Busch does not have the track history at Charlotte, but has provided the second-most value of any driver in the series in 2015. As a consolation prize, we will use his Charlotte numbers to further illustrate the formula.

KURT BUSCH AT CHARLOTTE

• Laps Led last five Charlotte races: 10 laps equals 1 points per race
• Fast laps last five Charlotte races: 37 laps equals 3.7 points per race
• Average finish position: 17.8 equals 26.2 points per race
• Start-to-finish differential: Negative 3.4 equals (-3.4) points per race
• Average number of points last five Charlotte races: 27.50
• Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $25.50
• Points per dollar: 27.5 divided by 25.5 equals 1.08 points per dollar

Below you will find the points per dollar rankings for each driver. For drivers with no track history, we will use 2015 numbers. Feel free to add your team to the comments section and check the comments after qualifying for any additional updates.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

• Jimmie Johnson 3.16
• Kevin Harvick 3.09
• Brad Keselowski 2.33
• Matt Kenseth 2.24
• Denny Hamlin 1.89
• Jamie McMurray 1.89
• Jeff Gordon 1.82
• Kyle Busch 1.73
• Joey Logano 1.50
• Kyle Larson 1.31
• Kurt Busch 1.08
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.60

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

• Kasey Kahne 3.62
• Carl Edwards 2.23
• Ryan Newman 1.58
• Clint Bowyer 1.42
• Martin Truex Jr. 1.42
• Greg Biffle 1.33
• Aric Almirola 0.94
• Paul Menard 0.82

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

• Austin Dillon 2.58
• Sam Hornish Jr. 2.20
• Tony Stewart 2.12

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

• Trevor Bayne 2.35
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.94
• David Gilliland 1.90
• Casey Mears 1.37
• David Ragan 1.21
• Ryan Blaney 0.77*
• Danica Patrick 0.52

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

• Matt DiBenedetto 3.78*
• Michael Annett 3.28
• Landon Cassill 2.24
• Chase Elliott 2.22*
• Brendan Gaughan 2.13*
• Cole Whitt 1.94
• Alex Bowman 1.86
• Jeb Burton 1.42*
• Josh Wise 1.15
• Michael McDowell 1.00
• JJ Yeley 0.67
• Brett Moffitt 0.34

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

We saw some playoff contenders with poor finishes last week at Kansas. Kansas is usually a predictable race, and those of us who selected Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski, or Dale Earnhardt Jr. are reeling from last week’s picks. This week in North Carolina, we see a track where there is not a dominant driver. Instead, there is a pool of about a dozen racers who have a clear shot at success. The next two weeks, we will see some exciting races with high stakes and some separation in our fantasy leagues.

My first roster pick has already qualified for the next round of the playoffs. With the success of the Penske tandem this season, I want to roster one Penske driver if practical. Although his lap-to-lap performance is not excellent, Logano has the second-best average finish position in the series. With 58% of his laps in the Top 15 since 2005, Logano is eighth in the series in lap-to-lap performance. Based on his 2014 season, Logano should help my team this week.

The second pick on my roster performs better at Charlotte than any other track in the series and has the best average finish position in the series since 2005. Kasey Kahne has 9 Top 5 finishes in his last 19 Charlotte races. Kahne is second in the series in laps led and fast laps during this time span. Over the past five races, Kahne has the most laps led of any driver in the series. Kahne’s biggest drawback is that he did not lead any laps earlier in the year.

Jimmie Johnson won the Charlotte race earlier this year and has great track performance. However, he has disappointed my team a few times this year, and I am admittedly biased against him for at least a couple of weeks. Feel free to choose Johnson, but the third roster spot for my team will be Matt Kenseth. Although winless in 2014, Kenseth has been one of the best drivers in 2014. Matt Kenseth ranks between fourth and sixth in all statistical categories at the track. Kenseth has 10 Top Ten finishes in his last 19 races at the track.

With limited salary cap space for the remaining two roster spots, we needed to find a couple of budget drivers. I am glad to have researched this article because I discovered Trevor Bayne as an entered driver. Trevor Bayne maintains a 23rd place average at the track. He is worth his $11.75 price tag. Michael Annett, with a 28th place finish earlier this year, is the choice for the fifth roster spot.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers ever week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of points for the last five Charlotte races and divides this number by the salary cap figure for each driver. The end result is a number that helps predicts how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. I suggested Keselowski last week, and he rewarded my insight by finishing dead last in fantasy live points. As a result, I chose Logano over him this week. Keselowski can win at any track this year. As a consolation prize, I will use Keselowski’s Charlotte numbers to further illustrate our formula.

BRAD KESELOWSKI AT CHARLOTTE

• Total laps led last five Charlotte races: 197 laps equals 19.7 fantasy live points per race
• Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
• Average finish position: 12th place equals 32 fantasy live points per race
• Start-to-finish differential: Plus 5 equals 5 fantasy live points per race
• Total fantasy live points per Charlotte race: 56.7
• Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $28.00
• Points per Salary Cap Dollar: 56.7 / $28.00 equals 2.03 fantasy points per dollar

See this week’s fantasy live points per dollar numbers below with highlighted picks in bold. Good luck with your picks in Charlotte.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

• Jimmie Johnson 2.44
• Brad Keselowski 2.03
• Kevin Harvick 1.98
• Matt Kenseth 1.91
• Carl Edwards 1.87
• Kyle Busch 1.57
• Ryan Newman 1.41
• Clint Bowyer 1.27
• Jeff Gordon 1.26
• Joey Logano 1.21
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.68

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

• Kasey Kahne 3.28
• Austin Dillon 2.07
• Greg Biffle 2.06
• Denny Hamlin 1.87
• Tony Stewart 1.85
• Jamie McMurray 1.69
• Brian Vickers 1.54
• Martin Truex Jr. 1.30
• Paul Menard 1.18
• Kurt Busch 0.97
• Aric Almirola 0.86
• Marcus Ambrose 0.63
• Kyle Larson 0.57

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.21
• Casey Mears 1.14
• AJ Allmendinger 0.87
• Danica Patrick 0.68

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

• Trevor Bayne 1.87
• David Gilliland 1.53
• David Ragan 1.07
• Cole Whitt 0.47
• Justin Allgaier (-0.88)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

• Michael Annett 3.09
• Landon Cassill 2.28
• David Stremme 1.57
• Josh Wise 1.14
• Michael McDowell 0.92
• Alex Bowman 0.82
• Reed Sorenson 0.53
• Ryan Truex 0.48