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NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Charlotte Motor Speedway, Coca-Cola 600

2014 NASCAR Brad Keselowski Coca-Cola 600

After taking a week off in Fantasy NASCAR due to the All-Star race, the action returns to Charlotte Motor Speedway on Memorial Day weekend.

Fantasy NASCAR players are generally hoping that this week’s race is as predictable as Kansas, where most of the top drivers performed as expected. Many of the top drivers have a history of success at the Charlotte and we could see high point totals this week.

Nascar.com Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format for its fantasy league. In order to prevent players from choosing the top drivers every week, the website provides a $100 salary cap. The scoring format combines point totals from start position to finish position differential, laps led, fast laps, and final position.

This article looks at the total points for the last five Charlotte spring races, and divides that number by the league salary cap figure. This final number shows the amount of points to expect per salary cap dollar for every driver.

Please note that fast laps cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy. For additional clarification, see the details for Kasey Kahne in Charlotte.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

NASCAR.com fantasy rankings use a salary cap formula that limits the quality of drivers than you can pick each week. The point total combines the laps led, fast laps, differential between start and finish, and final standings to determine the winner. The formula used in this article uses the total points earned by a driver divided by his or her salary cap figure. The end result is a number that determines the total number of points to expect for each fantasy dollar.

Though fast laps information is available, the fast lap data is not used for this article because the data cannot be calculated into the salary cap point format with 100% accuracy.

KASEY KAHNE AT CHARLOTTE

Kasey Kahne’s data from this week can help provide you with a clearer picture on how this formula works below.

  • Average starting position to finish position differential at Charlotte: (-1)
  • Combined spring Charlotte laps led last five years: 285 (57 laps per race)
  • Average laps led fantasy points per race: 28.5
  • Average finish position last five years: 8th (36 points)
  • Average points per race last five years: 63.5
  • Salary Cap Figure per Fantasy Live: $25.25
  • Points per fantasy dollar: 2.52

Kahne has struggled for most of 2014, but Charlotte is his best track. With an average finish of 8.8 over the last five years, Kahne is the most consistent driver. His car looked excellent in the All-Star race. His points-per-fantasy-dollar number of 2.52 is second only to Kurt Busch.

HIGH-RISK & HIGH-REWARD

Both of the Busch brothers are high-risk, high-reward picks.

Kurt Busch runs well in Charlotte, but he will be driving 500 miles at Indianapolis and flying to Charlotte before a long race. Kyle Busch has led the most laps in spring Charlotte races over the last five years. He is also the only driver to lead laps in all five races.

Because NASCAR.com Fantasy Live is weighted towards laps led, you can benefit from choosing Kyle Busch. The drawback to this pick is that Kyle Busch only has an average finish of 24th over the last three spring races.

I am taking a risk and picking both Busch brothers.

NOT STRONG DATA…BUT A HUNCH

A couple of drivers have a chance to succeed even if the data does not completely support picking them. Kevin Harvick has had a dominant car and won two of the last three spring races. Though his team has been consistent lately, Harvick has not led a bunch of laps in either victory.

Jamie McMurray won the All-Star race and could be at the top even if the historical numbers are average.

Joey Logano has been on fire lately and drives well in Charlotte.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kurt Busch 2.58
  • Kasey Kahne 2.52
  • Kyle Busch 2.16
  • Carl Edwards 1.81
  • Kevin Harvick 1.61
  • Joey Logano 1.59
  • Matt Kenseth 1.49
  • Brad Keselowski 1.02
  • Jeff Gordon 0.99
  • Clint Bowyer 0.94
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.74
  • Jimmie Johnson 0.30

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.75)

  • Greg Biffle 1.93
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.86
  • Brian Vickers 1.70
  • Denny Hamlin 1.65
  • Tony Stewart 1.54
  • Jamie McMurray 1.51
  • Kyle Larson 1.35
  • Austin Dillon 1.35
  • Ryan Newman 1.24
  • Marcose Ambrose 1.12
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.90
  • Aric Almirola 0.25

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.75)

  • AJ Allmendinger 1.08
  • Justin Allgaier 1.11
  • Danica Patrick 1.00
  • Casey Mears 0.96

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.50)

  • David Ragan 2.74
  • Trevor Bayne 1.92
  • David Gilliland 1.70

GROUP E ($9.75 or lower)

  • Reed Sorenson 2.22
  • Landon Cassill 2.00
  • Josh Wise 1.68
  • Cole Whitt 1.41
  • Michael Annett 1.10
  • Joe Nemecheck (-0.78)

MY RECOMMENDED STARTERS FOR CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Kasey Kahne $25.25
  2. Kurt Busch $23.75
  3. Kyle Busch $27.50
  4. David Ragan $10.50
  5. Trevor Bayne $10.25
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Charlotte Motor Speedway, Coca-Cola 600

Congratulations to Jamie McMurray on winning the Sprint All-Star race this past weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

This is the track the drivers will take to over the Memorial Day weekend, but first and foremost I would like to take this time to remember all of the men and women who made the ultimate sacrifice to keep our nation free and let us live the lives we live each and every day. Thank you to everyone that has ever served in the armed forces!

NOW COMES THE TRUE TEST

The race this week is going to test man and machine alike.

A 600-mile race will take its toll on engines, tires, and the mental focus of the drivers and crews. The All-Star race was run in segments. The Coca-Cola 600 will be run without any delays if mother nature allows it to, so everyone needs to be ready for a long afternoon and evening. Those who are fast early in the race will need to make adjustments later as the track conditions change, and those not so fast early will need to be patient as they will have plenty of time to get their cars running the way they would like them at the end of the race.

COCA-COLA 600

Kasey Kahne: I am picking Kasey to win the race this weekend. He had an awesomely fast car during the All-Star race, as did all of the Hendrick drivers, which is the first reason I am picking him. He has also finished first or second in each of the last three points races he has run at this track. Kasey needs to be patient early in the race and make sure he is around at the end to claim the victory.

Kevin Harvick: I am not forgetting about Kevin who has had a fast car every week this season. The only question I have is whether the machine will hold up for the 600-mile race. The Stewart-Haas teams have had a multitude of mechanical failures during the season and this will be the longest race they run all year. Kevin will be fast, but will the mechanical side hold up?

Jeff Gordon: Jeff sits on the top of the standings and has been competitive all year. Like I said, all of the Hendrick cars were fast on Saturday night and the engines in these cars seem to be able to handle the grueling task of a 600-mile race. Jeff knows that no matter how his car is handling at the beginning of the race, he will have to get the right adjustments to be able to contend at the end of the race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Another of the Hendrick drivers who has been fast and competitive all season. I think the big thing for Dale in this race is to be patient. He can’t get too upset when his car doesn’t handle the best after making adjustments early in the race. Just do the best you can until the next time you stop and make further adjustments. You will all see comers and goers as the race progresses and the track changes from the start to the finish. The key is to have your best handling car at the end of the race.

Jimmie Johnson: Finally the last of the Hendrick drivers in the field this weekend. Jimmie is still looking for his first win of the season and this is the place that he would love to get that win. Charlotte Motor Speedway aka Lowe’s Motor Speedway is his self-proclaimed home track as it has the same sponsor as is on his car. Jimmie has won more points races here than any other active driver, so he knows how to get the job done in this race.


Matt Kenseth: Matt is always a patient driver and that really helps the longer the races are. He also knows how the track will change and gives excellent feed back to his crew chief during the race. This helps Jason Ratcliff determine what adjustments he wants to make to the car when they pit. I think these two work as well together as Jimmie and Chad do when it comes to communications and making the correct decisions.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has finished in the top ten in seven straight points races at Charlotte and had a fast car during both practice and the race last weekend. This team is still confident after getting the win at Talladega a few weeks ago and this is one of the tracks they always run well at. Denny knows not to get upset early in this race and has the patience to keep his car in good shape for a run late in the race.

Carl Edwards: Carl has yet to win a points race at this track, but he has five straight top ten finished here. He was another driver with a very fast car on Saturday night and the Roush/Fenway engines seem to hold up well over the longer races. This season Carl seems to be one of the drivers you don’t hear much about until late in the race when he gets his car dialed in and starts to make himself known at the front of the pack.

Greg Biffle: Greg had a very fast car last weekend also. He has the mentality to keep his focus over the long haul and can drive with the best of them. He is one of the drivers that can stay on the lead lap with an ill handling car until he can get in the pits and make adjustments to get the handling better. I can’t stress enough how much the track will change this weekend as we go from afternoon to evening. The track temperature will cool down considerably from the start of the race to the end and that really affects the handling.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has finished in the top five in three of his last four starts here. I think the biggest issue with Kyle is his patience in this long race. He always wants to be up front and race everyone hard. You need to take this race like a restrictor plate race. Keep yourself out of trouble, don’t take unnecessary chances early in the race and maintain your equipment so you can make the run late in the race. He just needs to remind himself of this early next week and he will be fine once again.

Check back later this week for possible changes to the Yahoo C group once the entry list is made available.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kasey Kahne
  • Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Denny Hamlin
  • Carl Edwards
  • Greg Biffle
  • Joey Logano

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Trevor Bayne
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Kasey Kahne
  2. Kevin Harvick
  3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  4. Jimmie Johnson
  5. Jeff Gordon

Dark Horse: Aric Almirola

Stay Away From: Tony Stewart

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Kansas Speedway, 5-Hour Energy 400

Clint Bowyer #15 Boston Marathon

The unpredictable nature of Talladega took a heavy toll on last week’s salary cap picks for Talladega Superspeedway. Four of the five choices did not finish due to accidents and mechanical difficulties. Sometimes all the data points to an expected outcome, and the results are significantly different than expected. This reality is what makes us love and hate fantasy racing.

The results from Kansas will likely improve from last week as Kansas is one of the more predictable races in the NASCAR schedule.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

NASCAR.com fantasy rankings use a salary cap formula that limits the quality of drivers than you can pick each week. The point total combines the laps led, fast laps, differential between start and finish, and final standings to determine the winner. The formula used in this article uses the total points earned by a driver divided by his or her salary cap figure. The end result is a number that determines the total number of points to expect for each fantasy dollar.

Though fast laps information is available, the fast lap data is not used for this article because the data cannot be calculated into the salary cap point format with 100% accuracy.

MATT KENSETH AT KANSAS

Matt Kenseth’s data from this week can help provide you with a clearer picture on how this formula works below.

  • Matt Kenseth total laps led last 3 spring races: 165
  • Laps led per race: 55
  • Nascar.com laps led points per race: 27.5 (1 point for every 2 laps led)
  • Starting position to finish position differential: 9
  • Average finish: 3rd place (41 points)
  • Total points per race: 77.5
  • Nascar.com salary cap value: $28.25
  • Kansas points per salary cap dollar: 77.5/28.25 = 2.74 points per dollar

KANSAS SPEEDWAY SALARY CAP DARKHORSE

Of the major drivers, the one with the highest points per fantasy dollar is Martin Truex Jr. with 3.28. With 219 laps led over the last two years, Martin has experienced success at this type of track. The general inconsistency of the Furniture Row team is cause for concern, but the upside makes Martin Truex Jr. a viable option.

THE MORE CONSISTENT DRIVERS

Matt Kenseth (see statistical details above) has averaged a top four finish at Kansas over the last three spring races. Jimmie Johnson has been nearly as consistent here without as many laps led. Kansas could be the track where the 48 car leads half the race on its way to victory. There seems to be a hex over this team in 2014, which may be the direct result of the overplayed Lowe’s “boom confetti” commercial. Hopefully, they shake off the bad luck soon.

Other drivers with more than two points per dollar include Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Brad Keselowski. Feel free to use any of these drivers as your picks.

With results at this track leaning towards predictable finishes, the value choices at the bottom of the salary cap are slim. Reed Sorensen passed 14 cars last race and has the highest points per dollar of any driver this week (4.44). Justin Allgaier has been emerging as the third-best rookie over the last few weeks. With 1.6 points per fantasy dollar in 2014, he has better value in salary cap terms than his rookie counterparts Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson.

Best Value Picks

  • Reed Sorensen 4.44 (points per fantasy dollar)
  • Martin Treux Jr. 3.28
  • Matt Kenseth 2.74
  • Denny Hamlin 2.65
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.19
  • Brad Keselowski 2.18
  • Josh Wise 2.13
  • Kurt Busch 2.12

Worst Value Picks

  • Joe Nemecheck (-0.22) (points per fantasy dollar)
  • AJ Allmendinger (-0.05)
  • Joey Logano 0.11
  • Brian Vickers 0.32
  • Kyle Busch 0.60
  • Casey Mears 0.74
  • Clint Bowyer 0.77

Notable Drivers

  • Kasey Kahne 1.82 (points per fantasy dollar)
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.73
  • Jeff Gordon 1.69
  • Tony Stewart 1.61
  • Carl Edwards 1.56
  • Greg Biffle 1.53
  • Aric Almirola 1.38
  • Kevin Harvick 1.31
  • Jamie McMurray 1.30
  • Paul Menard 1.13
  • Ryan Newman 0.97

MY RECOMMENDED STARTERS FOR KANSAS SPEEDWAY

  1. Matt Kenseth $28.25
  2. Jimmie Johnson $27.25
  3. Martin Truex Jr. $21.50
  4. Justin Allgaier $16.25
  5. Reed Sorensen $6.75
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Kansas Speedway, 5-Hour ENERGY 400

Matt Kenseth checkered flag kansas

Congratulations goes out to Denny Hamlin who picked up his first victory of the season by avoiding the big wreck that always seems to happen in the restrictor plate races. Denny ended up in the right lane late in the race and got excellent drafting help in passing Kevin Harvick after a late race restart and he held onto the lead as the caution came out on the last lap for debris on the track. That should be enough to propel him into the Chase.

This week the series heads to Kansas City, KS for the running of the 5-Hour Energy 400. Kansas Speedway is another of the mile and a half tracks on the circuit that make up the majority of schedule. I just hope that there aren’t a lot of tire issues again this weekend.

5-HOUR ENERGY 400

Matt Kenseth: I am picking Matt to get his first win of the season this week at Kansas. Matt has won two of the last three races at Kansas and has finished no worse than eleventh in his last seven starts there. They would like nothing better than to get their first win of the season and get the monkey off their backs and gain a spot in the Chase.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has finished in the top ten in ten straight races at Kansas including two victories during that stretch. This is another team that is still looking for their first win of the season so they can lock up a spot in the Chase themselves. I think this could be an all out battle between two of last seasons best drivers with a spot in the Chase up for grabs.

Greg Biffle: Greg came close to getting his first win of the season last Sunday at Talladega and he has always been very good at Kansas. He has won twice here and has finished in the top five in seven of his fifteen starts. This is the type of track that Greg excels on and this weekend should be no different.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff won the first two races ever run at Kansas Speedway. Even though he hasn’t won here since then he has finished in the top five in nine of his sixteen starts at this track. Jeff currently sits in the top spot in the standings, but he would really like to get his first victory of the season and get his spot in the Chase. There are only sixteen races left until the Chase starts and a lot of drivers who are looking for their first win yet.

Carl Edwards: Carl has already won a race this season, but he would like to get his second win before the Chase starts too. Although he has never won a race here he has finished in the top ten in nine of his thirteen starts at this track. I think that the Roush/Fenway engines are some of the best out there this season and can help these drivers get to victory lane.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won the race here last fall and has looked very good every week this season. As I have said before, if it weren’t for a lot of mechanical failures early this season, Kevin would probably have more than two wins and be sitting on top of the standings right now. He also has seven top ten finishes in his sixteen starts at this track.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has never won at Kansas yet, but he has finished in the top ten in seven of his fifteen career starts here. This team has slipped a little bit lately, but this is the type of track where they can get back into victory lane and get back on track like they were at the beginning of the season. Dale has been very good all year at this type of track.

Brad Keselowski: Brad took the blame for a wreck last weekend at Talladega that took out many of the big name drivers. This weekend he will try to redeem himself and should be able to do just that. Both of the Penske teams have been very fast in qualifying all season long and I look for them to continue qualifying well this week also.

Joey Logano: Joey is the other Penske driver that has started towards the front of the field all season long. He also has two wins to go along with his good starting positions and could very easily get his third win of the season this weekend at Kansas Speedway.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR KANSAS SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Matt Kenseth
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Greg Biffle
  • Joey Logano
  • Carl Edwards

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT KANSAS SPEEDWAY

  1. Matt Kenseth
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Greg Biffle
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Martin Truex Jr.

Stay Away From: Kyle Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Talladega Superspeedway, Aaron’s 499

NASCAR 2013 Talladega Crash Greg Biffle and Kyle Busch

Sunday’s race in Talladega will be hard-pressed to top a Richmond track that had a fantastic finish accompanied by hot tempers and one black eye!

Last week’s picks for Richmond yielded 199 points (1.99 points per fantasy dollar). The final standings were decent; however, my choices did not lead enough laps to win the league. This week’s most valuable driver is Reed Sorensen, even though his data is only from one race (5.33 points per dollar). He passed thirty cars for an 11th place finish in his only spring race at the track. Drivers with five races at the track with the most value were David Gilliland and David Ragan. Both drivers had consistent success at the track.

From the perspective of Fantasy Nascar advice, the Alabama track is nearly impossible to predict. Drivers quickly move to the front and back of the field. All we can do is make the best picks that we can hoping the crashes miss our choices, and they find the right line when the race comes to a close.

With the new playoff format, this will be a highly competitive race that offers a potential playoff spot to teams that usually do not run at the top of the field.

TALLADEGA IS UNPREDICTABLE, BUT…

Even with the unpredictable nature of restrictor plate tracks, some drivers have better performances at Talladega than others.

The most consistent driver over the last ten years is Dale Earnhardt Jr. Over the last ten spring races, Dale has an average finish of eleventh. Matt Kenseth is also a solid option and has led the most laps over the last five years.

Other drivers with recent success at the track include Kurt Busch, Dave Ragan, and Clint Bowyer.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Nascar.com uses a salary cap format, which limits you from selecting all of the top drivers.

Using a combination of final race standing, fast laps, laps led, and differential from start to finish, this format forces uses to find the diamonds in the rough each week. In order to discover the value drivers, this article looks at the total points accumulated by each driver over their last five spring races at Talladega.

The only data point that will not be included is the fast laps because I cannot promise 100% accuracy of the data.

Basically, the formula that is used is simply dividing the average points accumulated per week for each driver divided by their salary cap number listed on www.nascar.com. The end result is the total number of points earned per salary cap dollar.

This data below from Matt Kenseth’s last five spring Talladega races should help.

MATT KENSETH AT TALLADEGA

  • Matt Kenseth Total number of laps led last five years: 234 (46.8 per race average)
  • Matt Kenseth Average lap points on nascar.com format (1 point/2 laps led): 23.4 per race
  • Matt Kenseth Average point differential: (-7)
  • Matt Kenseth Average finish: 18th (26 fantasy points)
  • Current Matt Kenseth salary on www.nascar.com: 28.25
  • Matt Kenseth’s Fantasy NASCAR Live points per dollar: 42.4/28.25 = 1.5 points per fantasy dollar

POINTS PER FANTASY DOLLAR FOR TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

In order to incorporate the rookies with no history at Talladega, my formula is using their results for the 2014 season instead of the track data. Another suggestion for success this week is to select drivers who qualify at the back of the field. Their potential to move up the field is very high with restrictor plates and well worth the risk for reliable drivers.

Best Value Picks

  • Reed Sorensen 5.33 (points per fantasy dollar)
  • JJ Yeley 3.71
  • David Ragan 3.43
  • David Gilliland 3.31
  • Michael McDowell 2.67
  • Terry Labonte 2.27
  • Michael Waltrip 2.05

Notable Rookies

  • Michael Annett 3.2 (points per fantasy dollar)
  • Justin Allgaier 3.13
  • Alex Bowman 2.81
  • Cole Whitt 2.81
  • Austin Dillon 2.67
  • Kyle Larson 2.57
  • Brian Scott 2.4

Notable Drivers

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.88 (points per fantasy dollar)
  • Kurt Busch 1.59
  • Matt Kenseth 1.5
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.5
  • Jamie McMurray 1.39
  • Clint Bowyer 1.34
  • Tony Stewart 1.15
  • Brad Keselowski 1.12
  • Kyle Bush 1.11
  • Denny Hamlin 1.05
  • Carl Edwards 0.98
  • Kevin Harvick 0.87
  • Joey Logano 0.86
  • Jimmie Johnson 0.78
  • Jeff Gordon 0.32

MY RECOMMENDED STARTERS FOR TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

Based on my formula for salary cap drivers here is my line-up for this week’s race at Talladega. My total salary cap used is $100.00

  1. Kurt Busch $27.25
  2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. $27.25
  3. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $21.25
  4. David Gilliland $13.00
  5. David Ragan $11.25