Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Crown Royal Presents the John Wayne Walding 400

After taking a much needed week off, NASCAR returns to action this week at the Brickyard. This is the second most coveted trophy right behind winning the Daytona 500 in all of NASCAR and that means you won’t be seeing teams taking chances with their setups heading into this race. Every driver wants to win this weekend in the worst way and that will show on the track.

CROWN ROYAL PRESENTS THE JOHN WAYNE WALDING 400

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has won four races at this track and more importantly he has finished in the top ten in sixteen of his twenty starts here. Those are pretty good odds for him to score a lot of points this week. I am taking him to win this race because he has been very consistent all season and he really excels on this type of track.

Tony Stewart: Tony got into a Sprint car race for the first time since breaking his leg last year in one of the very same races and he went right to victory lane. That tells me that he is 100% healthy and he is heading to his home state this week. Tony has won a race at the Brickyard and wants to get his first win of the season and get qualified for the Chase. He won’t hold anything back this week.

Jimmie Johnson: After two terrible races in a row, I think this team goes back to what won them six championships and just make the correct adjustments to a good car this week. Jimmie has won four races here and would like to get his fourth win of the season and get back on track as we get closer to the start of the Chase. The Hendrick cars are always very good and there is no reason to try anything special this weekend.

Brad Keselowski: Brad would love to keep his momentum going and pick up his first win at Indy this week. The way the Penske cars have looked all season, Brad should have a great car and he is very good on the long flat tracks. I think he will be towards the front for most of the race and be in position to win at the end. I also look for him to qualify in the top five once again this week.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has yet to win at the Brickyard himself, but he has finished in the top ten in seven of the nine races he has run here. That makes him almost as good of a choice as Jeff Gordon to come away with another top ten finish and maybe a visit to victory lane for the first time in his career at this track. He is definitely on my team this week.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won a race here back in 2003 and has finished in the top ten in seven of his thirteen starts at Indianapolis. This team has had fast cars all season and that could be enough to get Kevin another win here. I wish I could start all of the top tier drivers this week because that is just how good they are at this track, and like I said before, every driver wants to win this race.

Jamie McMurray: Jamie has won a race here in his career and has looked very good over the past month plus. This is the type of track that he runs very well at and is a good pick in the B group in Yahoo. This team has flown under the radar much of this season, but Jamie could pick up a win this week and qualify himself for the Chase. Once your in, you have a chance to be a champion.

Matt Kenseth: Matt would love to get his first career victory at this track this week. That would also guarantee him a spot in the Chase, although I don’t think he has to worry about that too much. He would however love to pick up some bonus points for winning a race when the Chase does start. This team is due for a win and I think they will get one before the Chase starts.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey is another driver who is looking for his first win of the season and at this track. He has finished in the top ten in half of the races he has run here and needs a win to make the Chase. This team doesn’t seem to be improving much as the season progresses and I’m not sure that they have what it takes to put an entire race together right now. They have a great driver and great equipment, but they don’t seem to be on the same page communication wise right now.

Denny Hamlin: Denny is always good at this type of track and should have the equipment he needs to get the job done this weekend. This is another team that hasn’t really stepped up their program throughout the season and they are hit and miss each week. However, this race means a lot to all of the drivers and I think this team comes with their A game this week.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR INDIANAPOLIS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jeff Gordon
  • Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Tony Stewart
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Jamie McMurray
  • Greg Biffle

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Juan Pablo Montoya

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT INDIANAPOLIS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Jeff Gordon
  2. Brad Keselowski
  3. Kyle Busch
  4. Tony Stewart
  5. Jimmie Johnson

Dark Horse: Paul Menard

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 New Hampshire, Camping World RV Sales 301

As a Fantasy NASCAR analyst, I am glad to be finished with a restrictor plate track and back to a more predictable track in Loudon. Hats off to you if you benefited from selecting Aric Almirola, Brian Vickers, and Casey Mears. For the rest of us, we saw our weekly lineup decimated by the two major incidents. New Hampshire provides us the opportunity to lick our wounds from Florida and start the second half of the NASCAR season on a positive note.

My preferred strategy for Nascar.com Fantasy Live is to pick my three favorite drivers, then find the best value with the remaining salary cap money. The driver with the most Fantasy Live points at New Hampshire since 2008 is Jimmie Johnson. Johnson’s value has dipped slightly after his Daytona wreck. Johnson is consistent at the track, averaging an eighth place finish over the last ten years. He has led laps in four of the last five summer races. Only an unexpected circumstance will keep the 48 team from running near the top this weekend.

Tony Stewart has led the most laps of any driver over the past five years in Loudon. Stewart was also involved in the Lap 21 wreck last week and should provide better value in New Hampshire as a result. Stewart has averaged a top ten finish and is the only driver to lead at least one lap in each of the last five summer races. Needing a win to make the chase, Stewart will drive aggressively for the next few weeks.

I was torn between Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, and Kurt Busch for the third spot. Kurt Busch has led the second-most laps since 2008, but has finished inconsistently over the last few years. I love Jeff Gordon’s consistency, but he has a higher price tag than Denny Hamlin. Hamlin has averaged a ninth-place finish over the last ten years. Hamlin was dominant in 2012, leading 193 laps on his way to victory. Hamlin should outperform his salary cap figure this week.

Deciding between the last two drivers is challenging because there was more cap room available than expected. Reed Sorenson has averaged a 21st place finish in two summer starts in Loudon. With only a $7 salary cap tag, his bargain value was too high to ignore. With $19.75 remaining, there are more options for the fifth spot than expected. Jeff Burton is racing this week for Michael Waltrip racing. With a 17th place average over the last five years, Burton should help your team with a modest cost of $15.25. My original choice was Burton, but had enough salary cap room for AJ Allmendinger. Allmendinger has averaged a 19th place finish since 2008 so he should be a valuable fifth starter for my team.

Our salary cap value formula basically determines average total number of fantasy live points over the past five summer New Hampshire races and divides that total by the salary cap figure provided by fantasy live on nascar.com. We can then determine how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

The Fantasy Live scoring system is a combination of laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential.

For additional clarification on our formula, please review Kasey Kahne’s details below:

KASEY KAHNE AT NEW HAMPSHIRE

  • Total laps led at the last five summer New Hampshire races: 116 (23.2 per race = 11.2 points)
  • Fast laps: cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Final position: 12th place average = 32 points
  • Start to finish differential: Negative Six = (-6 points)
  • Total points per race: 37.6
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $25
  • Points ranking: 37.6 points/$25 = 1.50 points per fantasy dollar

For rookies with no history at the track, we will use the data from the 2014 to help you know how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. This week’s picks are in bold along with the fantasy points-per-dollar for all drivers.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 2.28
  • Jeff Gordon 1.71
  • Matt Kenseth 1.51
  • Kasey Kahne 1.50
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.49
  • Kevin Harvick 1.33
  • Joey Logano 1.33
  • Clint Bowyer 1.25
  • Kyle Busch 1.25
  • Brad Keselowski 1.06
  • Carl Edwards 0.98

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Tony Stewart 2.50
  • Denny Hamlin 2.31
  • Kurt Busch 1.76
  • Greg Biffle 1.43
  • Austin Dillon 1.38
  • Aric Almirola 1.36
  • Ryan Newman 1.28
  • Kyle Larson 1.19
  • Marcus Ambrose 1.14
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.13
  • Brian Vickers 0.97
  • Jamie McMurray 0.92
  • Paul Menard 0.60

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 1.80
  • Jeff Burton 1.51
  • Justin Allgaier 1.35
  • Casey Mears 0.59
  • Danica Patrick 0.13
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-0.05)

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Gilliland 2.08
  • David Ragan 1.85
  • Cole Whitt 1.52

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Reed Sorenson 4.30
  • JJ Yeley 2.46
  • Landon Cassill 2.40
  • Michael Annett 2.36
  • Alex Bowman 1.71
  • Ryan Truex 1.00
  • Josh Wise 0.80
  • Joe Nemecheck 0.35
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Camping World RV Sales 301

We are now half-way through the season and there are only eight more races left to run before the start of the Chase. Aric Almirola most likely ensured himself a spot in the Chase with his win at Daytona last weekend. Now there are only five spots left for drivers without a win and that number could get even smaller if we can get a few more first time winners this year in the next eight races.

CAMPING WORLD RV SALES 301

This week the series heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the running of the Camping World RV Sales 301. NHMS is slightly longer than a mile and this is one of the shortest races of the season. This short flat track will be a huge difference for the drivers as compared to racing at Daytona last weekend. The closer we get to the Chase, the more desperate some drivers are becoming and we could see a lot of fireworks over the next couple of months.

Tony Stewart: I am giving the nod to Tony this week after a disappointing weekend at Daytona for this team. Tony has won three races at this track during his career and has finished in the top five in almost half of all the races he has run here. Tony is going to let it all hang out to get a win and get his team into the Chase and he isn’t going to wait for the last few races to do that. He makes the Chase this week.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has won a couple of races at this track and has also finished in the top five in just under half of the races he has run at this track. Denny would like to get another win before the Chase starts and build some momentum for his team as they get ready to compete for a championship. Denny is good on all of the short, flat tracks and this weekend should be no different.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has won three races at Loudon and this team has looked very good over the past month. I think they will be very good once again this weekend and will probably trade a lot of information with Tony Stewart to get both of those cars set up for a shot at visiting victory lane this weekend. Kurt is a good pick for someone who wants to make a move in their leagues this week.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has three wins at this track and has also finished in the top ten in seventeen of his twenty-four starts here. This team would like nothing better than to eliminate drivers they think would be a threat to them winning another championship and they will take chances to get another win and take that spot away from someone who really needs it.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff is another driver with multiple wins at this track and has looked very good on all of the short tracks this season. They would love to get another win and start building more confidence that they not only can compete every week, but win races which is what it is going to take to win the championship this season.

Matt Kenseth: Matt won the race here last September and although he is sitting in a good spot points wise, he would really like to get a win or two before the Chase starts to guarantee the spot and get some bonus points. He has finished in the top ten in half of the races he has run here. I think the only way he gets knocked out of the Chase is if he takes too many wild chances and starts finishing races in the garage instead of on the track.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won his only race here back in 2006, but he has also finished in the top ten in half of the races he has run here. The way this team has looked all year you can’t bet against them at anytime. I think Kevin will be very fast right off the hauler this week and will probably qualify in the top five. That gets you a great spot on pit road and that can make all the difference between winning and losing here.

Ryan Newman: Ryan has three wins here during his career and has finished in the top ten in almost two-thirds of the races he has run here. This team has been average for the last couple of months, but this could be the place they break out of that funk and could easily get their first win of the season this week and get that coveted spot in the Chase. Even though he is the second driver in points without a win and will probably make the Chase anyway, a few poor weeks could drop him out of that spot.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has yet to win a race at this track, but he has only run here nine times. In those nine races he has come away with five top ten finishes and this is the type of track that he really loves to compete on. With the speeds they have put up in qualifying this season and the importance of pit selections at New Hampshire, this team could find themselves starting up front once again with the best pit stall too.

Kyle Busch: Kyle finished second in both of the races run at Loudon last season and wants to improve on those spots this weekend. He has eight top ten finishes in eighteen starts here and won a race here back in 2006. This team is still looking for more consistency as we near the Chase.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kurt Busch
  • Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Tony Stewart
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Ryan Newman

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Jeff Burton
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Tony Stewart
  2. Denny Hamlin
  3. Kurt Busch
  4. Kyle Busch
  5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Ryan Newman

Stay Away From: Jamie McMurray

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Daytona, Coke Zero 400

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Daytona

After a Kentucky race that made you ecstatic if you started Brad Keselowski, we travel south for the holiday weekend to Daytona. Daytona is one of the most exciting tracks of the season and will make you want to tear your hair out in Fantasy NASCAR. With restrictor plates, big crashes, and unpredictable results, the end result is that choosing a successful lineup has more to do with luck than skill. The good news is that there are plenty of low cost options with the ability to finish in the top twenty. This week provides a great opportunity to gain or lose on your opponents.

The driver with the most fantasy live points over the course of the last five summer races is Tony Stewart. Stewart started the 2014 season slowly, but has improved as the summer races began. Stewart has led the most laps of any driver since 2008. He also averages an eighth place finish in the same period of time. Stewart has a high probability to run near the top this week.

After Stewart, there are six drivers who have averaged a thirteenth place finish or better over the last five years. Who you choose from this pack of driver should be determined by your personal preference because little separates these drivers statistically. The drivers in this second group include Kevin Harvick, Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch, Ricky Stenhouse, and Brian Vickers.

Using the process of elimination, we can trim down this second group of drivers. Kasey Kahne and Brian Vickers have not led a lap in five years, and I cannot recommend drivers who have led fewer laps than Joe Nemecheck at Daytona. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished in 11th place last year, and I cannot recommend him because of the small sample at the track.

Because of the salary cap restrictions, we can only choose two of the three remaining drivers for our roster. Matt Kenseth has led 107 laps over the last five races, second only to Stewart. He has also led a lap in four of the five races showing consistency. With a 12th place average since 2003, Kenseth proves to be a solid option.

There is little to separate Harvick from Kurt Busch. Harvick has led a few more laps and has won two races in 2014, but I would recommend Kurt Busch over Harvick due to Kurt Busch’s lower salary cap figure. Kurt Busch has the second-best average of any driver over the past ten summer races at Daytona.

With a 14th place finish last year at Daytona and a history of providing value on restrictor plate tracks, Danica Patrick is my fourth choice for this week’s roster. Patrick has shown improvement over the course of 2014, and she will be worth picking if she continues the trend. With only $10.75 remaining for the fifth driver, the last pick goes to David Ragan, who is an overachiever at Daytona and Talladega. Ragan has averaged a 20th place finish over the last five summer races, and I am glad there was enough salary cap money left over for Ragan. I like Michael Waltrip and the Labontes as fantasy live options this week and could be used depending on how you manage this week’s lineup.

Our salary cap value formula basically determines average total number of fantasy live points over the past five summer Daytona races and divides that total by the salary cap figure provided by fantasy live on nascar.com. We can then determine how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

The Fantasy Live scoring system is a combination of laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential.

For additional clarification on our formula, please review Kevin Harvick’s details below.

KEVIN HARVICK AT DAYTONA

  • Total laps led at the last five summer Daytona races: 44 (8.80 per race = 4.40 points)
  • Fast laps: cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Final position: 12th place average = 32 points
  • Start to finish differential: Plus seven = 7 points
  • Total points per race: 43.40
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.25
  • Points ranking: 43.4/$23.75= 1.59 points per fantasy dollar

For rookies with no history at the track, we will use the data from the 2014 to help you know how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. You will notice that there is more value picks than average. This week’s picks are in bold along with the fantasy points-per-dollar for all drivers.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 1.59
  • Matt Kenseth 1.38
  • Kasey Kahne 1.23
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.15
  • Kyle Busch 1.04
  • Joey Logano 1.04
  • Brad Keselowski 1.01
  • Jimmie Johnson 0.88
  • Carl Edwards 0.86
  • Jeff Gordon 0.66
  • Clint Bowyer 0.51

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Tony Stewart 2.40
  • Brian Vickers 2.02
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.65
  • Kurt Busch 1.62
  • Denny Hamlin 1.44
  • Jamie McMurray 1.40
  • Austin Dillon 1.40
  • Greg Biffle 1.36
  • Aric Almirola 1.26
  • Ryan Newman 1.15
  • Kyle Larson 1.13
  • Marcus Ambrose 0.87
  • Paul Menard 0.84
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.15

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Danica Patrick 1.77
  • Justin Allgaier 1.35
  • Casey Mears 1.14
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.03

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Bobby Labonte 3.70
  • David Ragan 3.00
  • Michael Waltrip 2.58
  • David Gilliland 2.18
  • Cole Whitt 1.62
  • Trevor Bayne (-0.16)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Terry Labonte 4.90
  • Reed Sorenson 3.85
  • Landon Cassill 3.20
  • Josh Wise 2.04
  • Michael Annett 1.95
  • Joe Nemecheck 1.31
  • Ryan Truex 0.78
  • Michael McDowell (-2.00)
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Daytona International Speedway, Coke Zero 400

I think things are going to start heating up in the Sprint Cup Series as we are now only nine races away from the start of the Chase. Right now we have ten different winners, so that leaves six spots up to the point standings. As of right now Tony Stewart and Kasey Kahne would be on the outside looking in, so they have some work to do. If we get a couple of new winners over the next nine races there will only be four spots available for those trying to qualify on points. That is why wins are so important at this stage of the game.

This week the series heads back to Daytona International Speedway for another Saturday night race and the third restrictor plate race of the season. Like always, these races can be one by any driver that starts from any position and stays out of trouble early in the race. That means another Chase spot can go to anyone this week. I caution those of you in the Yahoo league to pick your drivers carefully this week as this race is just a crap shoot.

COKE ZERO 400

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: I am picking Dale to come away with his third victory of the season this week at Daytona. He won the Daytona 500 this year and has finished first or second in three of his last five point races at this track. This team is hitting on all cylinders right now and has proven they know how to get the job done at the restrictor plate tracks as well as all other tracks on the circuit.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has always run well at the restrictor plate tracks and will be in contention once again this weekend if he can avoid trouble early in the race. That includes on the track, pit road, and mechanically. I think most of his poor finishes are the result of mechanical issues and there isn’t anything the driver can do about that. However, he proved how in tune with his car is last week when he realized he had a tire going down and made it to pit road before it could blow out on him and that saved him a top five finish.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin is another driver that always seems to be in contention at the end in these races. He usually rides around at the back of the pack early in the race to avoid trouble and then comes from the back to the front in the last twenty laps or so. The way he has performed this year, and all of the fast cars he has had makes me believe that he will have a shot at another win this weekend.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has put together a very nice season so far and has won six points races at Daytona during his career. Jeff seems to know who he drafts well with before the race starts and finds those drivers when he really needs them late in these races. Watch some of the practice sessions next week and see who Jeff picks to run with in the drafting session. He will find that same driver during the race and move to the front of the field with them.

Jimmie Johnson: Let’s not forget about Jimmie Johnson. With three victories already this season we know that this team has nothing to lose by going for the win this weekend. he is guaranteed a spot in the Chase and would like to get a few more wins to pad his points once the Chase starts. He has won three points races at Daytona, and Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart are the only active drivers with more career victories at Daytona than Jimmie who is tied with Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Michael Waltrip with those three wins.

Tony Stewart: As I just mentioned, Tony has won four points races at Daytona during his career and will be going all out to secure his spot in the Chase this weekend. This team has had an up and down year so far, but I think they have turned the corner and are now on the upswing. This is the type of race that Tony can win if he stays clean early on during the race and I believe he will be another driver that runs at the back of the pack for the majority of the race before making his move at the end.

Michael Waltrip: I believe Michael will be coming out of semi-retirement once again this week to give Daytona another shot. Michael runs all of the restrictor plate races during the season, and why not? He has three wins in point races at Daytona and has shown that he knows how to draft to get his car to the front of the pack. He will also ride around at the back of the pack until late in the race when he will joint the rest of the drivers at the back and make the move to the front and go for the win.

Jamie McMurray: Jamie has won two points races at Daytona during his career and always seems to have a great car here. However, something disastrous seems to happen to him during the race. Whether it be a mechanical problem or getting caught up in the big one, Jamie would like a little more luck on his side as he tries to get a win in a points race so he can qualify for the Chase.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has never won a points race at Daytona or Talladega, but he has been very good at both tracks amassing twenty-six top ten finishes in fifty-four starts. Eventually he will break into the win column at both of these tracks because he runs at the front of the pack more often than not.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  • Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Aric Almirola
  • David Ragan
  • Jamie McMurray
  • Brian Vickers

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Michael Waltrip
  • Trevor Bayne

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

  1. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  2. Matt Kenseth
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Kurt Busch
  5. Tony Stewart

Dark Horse: Jamie McMurray

Stay Away From: Clint Bowyer