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Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Watkins Glen, Cheez-It 355

Kyle Busch Watkins Glen I Love NY

Pocono is not known for multi-car wrecks and most fantasy lineups were affected by the thirteen car incident. We should be able to gain some of our lost points back this week as NASCAR moves north for the second road course of the season. Generally, Watkins Glen is a predictable track, and we should expect some clear frontrunners. You should expect to have a successful week, as there are some good bargains from road course specialists to take advantage of this week.

Marcus Ambrose is the clear first choice at Watkins Glen. Ambrose is the only driver to lead a lap in the last five races and is second in total laps led in the last five years with 97. His average finish position is third among active drivers since 2005, his average running position is second, and he has the highest loop data score. With 121 laps where he was the fastest driver on the track and running in the top 15 for 85% of his laps, every data point reveals a high probability for success.

Along with Ambrose, Kyle Busch is also a clear choice for the road course. Kyle Busch has led the most laps of any driver in the last five years and boasts the best average finish position of 4.6 since 2005 at the track. He was in the top 15 for 92% of his laps and has an average running position of 5.4. Like Ambrose, Kyle Busch is an obvious pick with a high probability of success.

The third pick will go to AJ Allmendinger, who provides tremendous value due to his low salary cap figure. With an 8.8 average finish position, Allmendinger has the fifth-best average finish position since 2005. His average running position of 11.5 and 70% of laps in the top 15 are not as dominant as Ambrose or Busch, but there is enough consistency to pick him. Allmendinger’s biggest drawback is only 8 laps led and 8 fast laps in the last five years. Despite this concern, he should be worth the start.

Landon Cassill provides decent value, and I am picking him this week to add a better fifth driver. With an average finish position of 25.5 and a loop data of 40, Cassill’s numbers are not particularly impressive. He has, however, the best fantasy points per dollar since 2008. I suggested Cassill last week and he wrecked. I hope he makes up for it at Watkins Glen. Boris Said, with the same salary cap figure, was tempting here. I cannot get over how poor the equipment was during his last start at Sonoma. You could easily start Said instead of Cassill, but I will stick with the 40 Car.

These picks will leave enough salary cap room for Brad Keselowski as the fifth options. Initially, I was gearing to pick Tony Stewart here until I realized I had enough cap room for Keselowski. I was surprised that Keselowski has a lower than expected average running position of 12.3. He only has run in the top 15 for 69% of his laps. Both of these numbers are respectable and reveal his consistency. These numbers surprised me because Keselowski’s average finish position since 2005 is the second-best in the series with 6.5. Keselowski has a ticket punched for the chase. He could coast the last five races, but has a competitive streak. Keselowski will take risks to win this week at Watkins Glen.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on Nascar.com combines fast laps, laps led, final position, and start-to-finish position differential. In order to prevent us from simply picking the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live utilizes a salary cap format. The goal is to find value in your picks.

The formula in this article basically calculates the total number of points accumulated in their scoring system and divides this number by their salary cap figure. We can then determine how many points to expect per fantasy dollar. Since I left him out of my lineup, we will look at Tony Stewart’s Watkins Glen Statistics as an example.

TONY STEWART AT WATKINS GLEN

  • Total laps led last five years: 34 = 3.4 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Finish position: 13th place average = 31 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Start to finish differential: Minus 6 = Negative 6 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Average number of points per race: 28.40
  • Salary Cap figure on Fantasy Live: $22.75
  • Points per dollar: 28.4 / 22.75 = 1.25 fantasy points per dollar

Please review the fantasy points per dollar figures below for Watkins Glen with this week’s picks in bold. For rookies with no history at the track, we will use their 2014 averages to give you an idea what to expect from them.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kyle Busch 2.04
  • Brad Keselowski 1.81
  • Carl Edwards 1.70
  • Clint Bowyer 1.53
  • Matt Kenseth 1.53
  • Kevin Harvick 1.29
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.01
  • Joey Logano 0.92
  • Kasey Kahne 0.91
  • Jeff Gordon 0.68
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.54

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Marcus Ambrose 1.99
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.60
  • Austin Dillon 1.46
  • Tony Stewart 1.25
  • Greg Biffle 1.23
  • Kyle Larson 1.21
  • Kyle Busch 1.16
  • Paul Menard 1.14
  • Ryan Newman 1.02
  • Brian Vickers 0.92
  • Jamie McMurray 0.46
  • Aric Almirola 0.43

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.08
  • AJ Allmendinger 2.05
  • Casey Mears 1.97
  • Justin Allgaier 1.31

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Ragan 2.63
  • David Gilliland 2.16
  • Cole Whitt 1.77

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Landon Cassill 4.28
  • Ryan Truex 2.82
  • Michael Annett 2.26
  • Reed Sorenson 1.57
  • Josh Wise 0.80
  • Boris Said 0.80
  • Joe Nemecheck 0.47
  • Michael McDowell (-2.15)
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Watkins Glen, Cheez-It 355 at The Glen

Congratulations to Dale Earnhardt Jr. on picking up his third victory of the season and sweeping the races at Pocono this year. The win gives Dale the same amount of bonus points when the Chase starts as Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowkski with three wins each so far this season. Now there are only five races left until the Chase and there are still spots up for grabs.

CHEEZ-IT 355 AT THE GLEN

With only five races left until the Chase the series heads to Watkins Glen, NY for the second road-course race of the season. I think that the series will fill another Chase spot with a different winner this week, which means someone else won’t make it on points.

Right now Greg Biffle holds the final spot for the Chase in the point standings, one point ahead of Kasey Kahne, two points ahead of Austin Dillon, and five points behind Kyle Larson. I believe this last spot will be taken by Marcos Ambrose this week when he wins the race at Watkins Glen and qualifies for the Chase and then the next four weeks will be a real battle to secure the final spot in the Chase. The fireworks are going to fly.

Marcos Ambrose: Marcos has had a terrible year after improving over the last few years since he joined the series. I thought he would win the race at Sonoma earlier this season, but that didn’t happen and now the only way he makes the Chase is to win a race. That race will happen this weekend on the road course or it won’t happen at all. Marcos has nothing to lose by letting it all hang out and that is exactly what he will do this weekend.

Tony Stewart: Tony has won five times at Watkins Glen and he needs a win to make the Chase also. I picked Marcos to win because he is at home at a road course, but Tony is no slouch here and anyone that knows Tony’s passion for racing knows that he will not go down quietly. You will see a man on a mission doing everything he can to win this race and qualify his team for the Chase, and he can do it.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff won three races in a row and four out of five here early in his career. The way this team has been performing this season, they are in that same form right now as they were years ago when Jeff was winning a lot of races and championships and this team has that same mentality right now.

Brad Keselowski: Brad already has three wins this season and is solidly in the Chase. That doesn’t matter to him right now. He enjoys the competition so much that he isn’t afraid to mix it up with anyone on a road course. I think one of the best finishes I ever saw in NASCAR was the last lap battle between Brad, Marcos, and Kyle Busch that Marcos won and all Brad said after the race was something to the effect of, that is the way racing is supposed to be.

Kyle Busch: Now we talk about Kyle. Oil on the track on the last lap of the race I am talking about above, is what cost him that race. Kyle has won two races here and without the oil probably would have three wins here already. Kyle finished thirty-third in the first race he ran here, but hasn’t finished outside of the top ten since then, nine races ago. He is also the defending champion at this track.

Carl Edwards: Carl has six top ten finishes in nine career starts at this track. The big question with this team right now is will they give Carl what he needs to win a race or will this team use him for experimentation for the rest of the season now that he won’t be driving for Roush/Fenway next season. I don’t think it will be bad as long as Carl is in contention to win the championship, but one never really knows.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has won a race here before, and the way he has been driving this season, one never knows when he will win again. He has had a car capable of winning every week this year and this week will be no different. Kevin has been racing long enough to know that seasons like this don’t come along all the time and you had better take advantage of them while you can.

Jimmie Johnson: I think it is time for this team to address the right rear tire problem that has been plaguing them for the past month or more. With three wins under their belt, I think they had the right idea to experiment with lower tire pressures, but now that we are getting closer to the Chase, I think they need to get back in the trend of just trying to win races on their talent.

These are your top picks for this week’s race. There will be some road course specialists enter into this week’s race, and if you are in a league like the Yahoo league where you can only start drivers so often during the season you will need to take a chance on one of these drivers this weekend. I am pretty sure that Boris Said will be entered in a car and we will need to watch the entry list that comes out on Tuesday to see if drivers like Juan Pablo Montoya are in the field. This type of pick can put you over the top in your individual league where the rest of the competition doesn’t know who is entered into the race. Check back Wednesday or Thursday after the entry list is out to see any changes I have made to the C group for the Yahoo league.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR WATKINS GLEN INTERNATIONAL

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jeff Gordon
  • Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Marcos Ambrose
  • Tony Stewart
  • Jamie McMurray
  • Brad Keselowski

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Boris Said
  • Nelson Piquet Jr.

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT WATKINS GLEN INTERNATIONAL

  1. Marcos Ambrose
  2. Tony Stewart
  3. Kyle Busch
  4. Jeff Gordon
  5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Jamie McMurray

Stay Away From: Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Pocono, GoBowling.com 400

With Jeff Gordon earning his fifth Brickyard victory, NASCAR returns to Pocono for a second installment. Pocono is a challenging track for teams to prepare. With three unique turns, one setup cannot be 100% effective for every turn. The end result is that some drivers have mastered the challenges of the Pennsylvania track, making this week more predictable than the average track.

One of the resources available on www.fantasyracingcheatsheet.com is a statistical engine that analyzes a driver’s performance on a lap-to-lap basis. Using the final position only tells part of the story. If a driver is dominating a track and experiences bad luck at the end of the race, using final position only for your analysis will prove to be incomplete. In order to provide you with the best analysis, I am going to utilize the resources available on this site like loop data to provide you with more information to help you make informed decisions about your lineups.

My first pick for this week illustrates the value of using this data point. During the last three August races at Pocono, Denny Hamlin averages a 29th place finish. Upon further investigation, Hamlin has led the second-most laps over the last five August races with 178. He was the fastest driver for 121 of the laps during this time span, the most of any driver. Hamlin has the best starting position, runs in the top 15 drivers for 78% of his laps, and has the best loop data score. The risk in picking Hamlin is his bad luck at the track, and his upside is worth the risk because he is valued below the top drivers.

The second fantasy live pick has led the most laps over the last five August races. Jimmie Johnson has an eighth place average finish at the track and is second in fastest laps to Hamlin since 2009. With a series-best average running position of 9.8 and 79% of laps in the top 15, Johnson has a high likelihood of success.

Because of some cost-effective choices for the fourth and fifth slots this week, I had enough salary cap money to choose Jeff Gordon as the third driver. Gordon has the best average finish position of any driver. He also has the most fantasy live points since 2009 and is coming off a win last week. Gordon runs in the top 15 drivers for 76% of his laps, tied for third in the series with Ryan Newman.

After these three picks, there was little salary cap room available for the last two spots. Lower cost drivers may not have impressive finishes, but are cost-effective and often score more points per fantasy dollar than the top competitors. Michael Annett finished 20th in June and his loop data score is closer to a $15 driver than his price tag. Annett could provide value this week. While his loop data scores are low, Landon Cassill averages a 30th place finish at the track and should net you two points per fantasy dollar, which is great value.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

In order to determine the best starters at Pocono, we look at historical data over the last five years. Fantasy Live on nascar.com combines fast laps, laps led, start-to-finish differential, and final position. We look at the last five years at the track and see how many fantasy live points each driver has accumulated per race. Then, we divide that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is that we are able to figure out how many fantasy points to expect from each fantasy dollar.

Kurt Busch is a possibility for your lineup this week, and missed the cut for my roster. We will use his Pocono statistics to illustrate how this formula works.

KURT BUSCH AT POCONO

  • Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Laps led last five years: 64 = 6.4 points per race
  • Average finish position last five years: 15th place = 29 points
  • Start-to-finish differential: (-9) = negative 9 points
  • Total Fantasy Live Points per Race: 26.4
  • Nascar.com Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $23.50
  • Points per dollar: 26.4/ $ 23.50 = 1.12 fantasy points per dollar

For rookies who have not run the August Pocono race we will use their 2014 statistics to determine their value. Please note Kyle Larson finished fifth in the June race. Review the fantasy points per dollar amounts below with this week’s picks in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jeff Gordon 2.05
  • Brad Keselowski 1.86
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.84
  • Kasey Kahne 1.67
  • Clint Bowyer 1.59
  • Kevin Harvick 1.31
  • Carl Edwards 1.27
  • Kyle Busch 1.08
  • Matt Kenseth 0.95
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.90
  • Joey Logano 0.76

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Tony Stewart 2.02
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.89
  • Greg Biffle 1.63
  • Ryan Newman 1.46
  • Austin Dillon 1.41
  • Marcus Ambrose 1.32
  • Denny Hamlin 1.31
  • Kyle Larson 1.16
  • Kurt Busch 1.12
  • Paul Menard 1.09
  • Jamie McMurray 0.94
  • Brian Vickers 0.91
  • Aric Almirola 0.62

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Justin Allgaier 1.25
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.09
  • Casey Mears 0.67
  • Danica Patrick 0.52
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.05

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Ragan 2.00
  • Cole Whitt 1.62
  • David Gilliland 1.21

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Landon Cassill 2.16
  • Michael Annett 2.15
  • Alex Bowman 1.76
  • Reed Sorenson 0.57
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Pocono Raceway, GoBowling.com 400

Congratulations to Jeff Gordon who picked up his fifth career win at Indianapolis Motor Speedway this past weekend during the running of the Crown Royal Presents the John Wayne Walding 400. With the win, Jeff extended his points lead and picked up bonus points that will be applied when the Chase starts. Now there are only six races left until the start of the Chase and eleven drivers are virtually locked into the field with five more spots up for grabs.

GOBOWLING.COM 400

This week the series heads back to Long Pond, PA for the running of the GoBowling.com 400 at Pocono Raceway. It was late June when Dale Earnhardt Jr. picked up his second win of the season at Pocono and now we head back to the scene of the crime. I think the teams that ran well this past week at Indy will do very well once again this weekend at Pocono because of the flatter track configuration. There is still some work to be done though with the tunnel turn making things a little more difficult when setting up the race cars.

Jeff Gordon: With six career victories at this track and a win last weekend at Indy I have to pick Jeff to win once again this week. Jeff also has thirty top ten finishes in forty-three starts at this track and those are unbelievable numbers. Six victories here, two wins this season, and leading the point standings make me have to start Jeff once again this weekend.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has four wins at this track and looked good last week at the Brickyard. I think this team has a chance to pick up it’s second victory of the season this weekend if they can make the right adjustments on the car as the race progresses. One other thing about Pocono is that it rains there a lot and teams have to be prepared to run in all types of conditions throughout the weekend and that makes it a tough weekend for everyone involved.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey has two career wins at this track, looked very good last week at Indianapolis, and needs a win to guarantee himself a spot in the Chase. Picking up a win is critical to this teams chances of making the Chase as they are the first team currently on the outside looking in if the Chase started now. They can still move up in the standings and make the Chase without a win, but that is leaving your future in the competitions hands.

Tony Stewart: I thought Tony would run a little better last week at Pocono, but I think they learned some things that they can apply to their setup this weekend and come away with a better result. Tony has two victories at this track and always seems to run well on this type of track. If they can win a race and make the Chase I think they will be very happy after struggling early in the season and finding themselves in this position anyway.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has three career wins here and has finished in the top ten in seventeen of his twenty-five starts here. This team would like to get more consistent as we near the start of the Chase so they can concentrate on winning another championship. With the new Chase rules, consistency is going to be a major factor in the early Chase rounds.

Kevin Harvick: Once again, Kevin sat on the pole and had a car capable of visiting victory lane again this year. This team would like to finish what they start at the end of the weekend. Every victory means more points heading into the Chase and those bonus points could be the difference of making it to the next round, or being eliminated from the Chase before the next round begins.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale won the race here in June and has looked very good on this type of track all season long. Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick are the only drivers in my opinion to be more consistent than Dale this year and like I said, consistency is what is going to win a championship this year. I look for Dale to have another great car again this weekend and having a shot to visit victory lane again.

Kurt Busch: Kurt always run better at Pocono than he does at Indy. He has won two races at this track and has finished in the top ten in seven of his last nine starts here. I think the reason for this is that Kurt can figure out how to get his car setup to run all of the different turns at Pocono. I think they would like to have some better finishes and move up a little in the standings as we near the Chase to make sure that their win this year is good enough for them to make the Chase.

Ryan Newman: Ryan had a great run at Indy last week and has finished in the top ten at Pocono in six of his last seven starts there. I think this team will make the Chase without a win, but I am sure they would rather win a race and get some momentum built up as we get ready to start the Chase in another month and a half. I think Ryan is another good starter this week in Yahoo.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR POCONO RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jeff Gordon
  • Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Denny Hamlin
  • Ryan Newman
  • Tony Stewart
  • Carl Edwards

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT POCONO RACEWAY

  1. Jeff Gordon
  2. Denny Hamlin
  3. Kevin Harvick
  4. Kasey Kahne
  5. Ryan Newman

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Matt Kenseth

Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Indianapolis, Crown Royal 400

After a week away from fantasy racing, we return to Indianapolis this weekend. There are only a handful of races remaining until the Chase begins, and the pressure is growing for teams who have not yet won a race in 2014. For our fantasy racing leagues, the next few weeks will make or break our runs for our league championship. Indianapolis has helped some of the top drivers, but there has not been a dominant driver from year-to-year here. This translates to an opportunity to gain or lose fantasy points this week.

My Fantasy NASCAR strategy for salary cap racing is to pick my three favorite drivers for the race, and then choose the best drivers with the remaining salary cap money. I choose this strategy because fantasy live on nascar.com rewards more points for laps led and fast laps. Because of the scoring system, choosing five average drivers will not be the path to victory. Once we apply the points per dollar formula, the results will show the best picks are the top drivers and the bottom feeders.

The next step is to determine the drivers with the highest likelihood for success at the track. One of the statistics to review is the total number of laps led. I look at total laps led at a given track over a five-year time span along with the total number of races that the driver has led a lap. I am more impressed with Brad Keselowski leading a total of 44 laps in three different Indianapolis races than Ryan Newman leading 45 laps in only one race because Keselowski shows he can run near the top on a year-to-year basis. When we combine this data with the average final position, we will get a clear idea who is the most likely to succeed in a given week. Beyond historical data, taking into account this year’s performance as a whole by each driver is an important factor to consider.

The driver with the best statistical probability for success this week is Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has led the second-most laps of any driver in Indianapolis over the last five years with 198. He is also the only driver to lead a lap in each of the last five races. All statistics were showing Johnson as a favorite in New Hampshire, but a cut tire became a death sentence to all who started him.

The second driver on my team is Tony Stewart. Stewart has the best average finish position over the last ten years. Although he has only lead twelve laps over the last five years, Stewart also has the highest fantasy points per dollar from the top drivers over the same time span. After some deliberation, Jeff Gordon is the narrow choice for the third spot over Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Greg Biffle. Gordon has an eighth place average over a ten-year span and is tied for third-most saps led since 2009 with 48 laps. Biffle has historically been successful in Indianapolis, but his team has been average for most of 2014. Harvick and Keselowski could easily win, but I simply felt more comfortable picking Gordon.

Juan Pablo Montoya has led the most laps of any Indianapolis driver over the last five years. His average finish is only 20th place, but is worth a pick due to a low price tag of $10.25. The last pick was a toss-up between Landon Cassill and Reed Sorenson. Ultimately, I picked Cassill because he has led a lap in three of the last five years. He only has four total laps led so temper your expectations for a top finish. If he can match his 29th place average finish, he will be a valuable selection.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com combines the laps led, fast laps, final position, and start-to-finish differential in their scoring system. With a salary cap, the format limits the quality of drivers you can choose for your team. The formula used in this article basically tallies the average points accumulated over the last five years for each driver and divides that figure by their salary cap number. The end result is a number that will provide us with an idea how many points to expect from each salary cap dollar.

For further clarification, please review the details for Jamie McMurray below at Indianapolis:

JAMIE MCMURRAY AT INDIANAPOLIS

  • Average final position last five years: 12th place = 32 points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 3 = 3 points
  • Total laps led: 21 = 2.1 fantasy points per week
  • Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Total Points per race; 37.1
  • Nascar.com salary cap figure: $22.75
  • Fantasy Points per dollar 37.1/22.75 = 1.63 points per fantasy dollar

For rookies without a history at the track, we will use their 2014 numbers for all races so we have an idea what to expect from them. See this week’s fantasy points per dollar below for each driver with this weeks picks in bold:

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 1.87
  • Kevin Harvick 1.67
  • Kasey Kahne 1.55
  • Jeff Gordon 1.49
  • Kyle Busch 1.42
  • Clint Bowyer 1.32
  • Brad Keselowski 1.20
  • Matt Kenseth 1.19
  • Carl Edwards 1.06
  • Joey Logano 1.00
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.89
  • Austin Dillon 0.57

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Tony Stewart 2.18
  • Greg Biffle 1.99
  • Brian Vickers 1.95
  • Paul Menard 1.64
  • Jamie McMurray 1.63
  • Ryan Newman 1.63
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.49
  • Kyle Larson 1.36
  • Aric Almirola 0.99
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.95
  • Marcus Ambrose 0.91
  • Kurt Busch 0.67
  • Denny Hamlin 0.63

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Justin Allgaier 1.25
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.22
  • Danica Patrick 1.10
  • Casey Mears 0.70

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Juan Pablo Montoya 2.96
  • David Ragan 1.92
  • Cole Whitt 1.62
  • David Gilliland 1.53
  • Trevor Bayne 1.47

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Reed Sorenson 2.43
  • Landon Cassill 2.19
  • Michael Annett 2.15
  • Ryan Truex 1.03