Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Charlotte Motor Speedway, Bank of America 500

Kevin Harvick and Jeff Gordon line-up in front of Sprint Cup trophy at Charlotte

Joey Logano won his fifth race of the season, his second of the Chase, and will move on to the Eliminator Round now. Three of the Chase drivers took a major hit in the point standings as they were involved in incidents on the track which took them out of contention in Kansas. These drivers now have their work cut out for them, but they can win one of the next two races and become automatically qualified for the next round. Also, Talladega is going to be a wildcard race and other drivers might get caught up in the ‘Big One’ and take a hit in points in the final race of this segment.

This week the series heads to Charlotte Motor Speedway, which is another 1.5 mile quad oval track. We will have to wait and see if their will be tire issues once again this weekend. I am sure that they will bring a different tire than the one they used at Kansas last weekend. Another thing about this race is that it is going to be 500-miles, so engines will be stressed a bit more and we might see a few drivers lose an engine during the race.

BANK OF AMERICA 500

Kevin Harvick: I am going to pick Kevin to have his luck change for the better this week and he will win this race. He has been fast all season long and could very well win another pole. He finished second in the spring race here and won the spring race in 2013. All they need is for everything to fall into place for him and he will visit victory lane and move on to the next round.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie is one of the drivers that took a big hit in the standings when he was involved in a wreck early in the race at Kansas. He won the spring race here and has won seven races altogether at Charlotte. This team always runs well here and they know their best chance of moving on to the third round is to win one of the next two races and this is the place that they have the better shot at getting that win.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has been fast all season and has won five races here during his career. He has also finished in the top ten in over half of his starts at this track and should be able to do that again. Jeff started on the pole in this race last season and has finished seventh in his last two starts here.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has two wins at this track during his career and is another driver who has finished in the top ten in over half of his career starts at Charlotte. I really think this team is going to win a race this season and this could be the week that happens. He is so consistent that if he stays out of trouble he will be able to move on to the next round by virtue of his points.

Joey Logano: Joey has yet to win a race at this track, but he has never finished worse than twenty-third here. He has finished in the top ten in six of his eleven starts at Charlotte and now that he has a win in this round he can take a few chances and try to win another race. It must be a great feeling to not have to worry about the next two races and where you finish in those races.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey has four wins at this track and is another driver who has finished in the top ten in over half of his starts here. This is the type of track that Kasey really runs well at. The problem with this team is that they make too many mistakes on pit road, or can’t keep up with the adjustments to the car as the track changes during the race. They need to be flawless to pick up another win this weekend.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale had a fast car last week at Kansas until he blew a tire and hit the wall, which has put him in a hole. He will be good enough the next two weeks to get back into the top eight, but I’m sure they would just like to win one of the next two races and build some momentum as we get closer to the end of the season.

Carl Edwards: Carl has never won a points race at Charlotte in his career, but he has finished in the top ten in almost two-thirds of the races he has run here. They have struggled on the intermediate tracks most of the season and didn’t look real good last week at Kansas, but still managed to come away with a top five finish. If they can find a little more speed they will stay in contention for the championship.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is another driver that blew a tire and hit the wall at Kansas last weekend. Now they need to make something happen so they can qualify for the third round of the Chase. They have been fast all year and Brad has won a race at Charlotte in his ten starts here. I think this team qualifies in the top five this week and runs up front most of the race next Saturday night.

Kyle Busch: Kyle had a good finish at Kansas last week and he always runs well at Charlotte. He just needs to stay focused and not get frustrated early in a 500-mile race. He needs to trust that his crew chief will make the correct adjustments to make the car better as the race progresses and put him in contention late in the race.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Joey Logano
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Carl Edwards
  • Jamie McMurray

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Trevor Bayne
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Kasey Kahne
  5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Kansas Speedway, Hollywood Casino 400

2014 NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup Contender Round

NASCAR returns to Kansas for the first race of the Contender Round of the new playoff format. Twelve drivers begin their quest to be one of the eight drivers still standing after Talladega in three weeks. Earlier in the season, Kevin Harvick had the fastest car for most of the race. Jeff Gordon squeaked past him in the final laps for the win. There are five drivers who are the favorites this week: Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon. Kansas is generally a predictable track so I would suggest choosing your three favorite drivers from this list and filling in the final two spots with the best budget options available.

My first two choices for my roster have the most NASCAR Fantasy Live points in 2014, and their inclusion should not be considered surprising. Kevin Harvick had a dominant car earlier in the year with 119 laps led. Since 2005, Harvick has an average running position of 11.6 and spends 71% of his laps running in the Top 15. Harvick is third in laps led and fourth in fast laps. In the last two Kansas races, Harvick has led a combined total of 257 laps. I like his chances this week.

The second choice does not have a dominant track history at Kansas, but has been finishing in the Top Five in many races where he was not dominant. Brad Keselowski only has an average running position of 14th and has 64% of his laps in the Top 15. These numbers are tenth in the series at Kansas since 2005. While the numbers are not overly impressive, Keselowski has the fastest team in the series right not and will remain on my roster until he cools down.

Jimmie Johnson finished in the Top Ten in 12 of his last 13 races at Kansas. Due to his consistency, he is my choice in my Yahoo leagues. He has only led 85 laps over the last five races at Kansas. Due to the low quantity of laps led by Johnson, I am suggesting Matt Kenseth for the third roster spot by a narrow margin. Kenseth has the most laps led in the series over the last five races. With six Top Five finishes in his last thirteen Kansas races, Kenseth has shown his upside. He is a consistent option here too, as evidenced by 77% of his laps in the Top 15 and an average running position of 10.4 since 2005.

These three roster selections force us to go under $10.00 for the final two roster spots. Michael Annett had a 25th place finish earlier this year, and will provide value if he duplicates his efforts. Landon Cassill has a 31st place average. While neither average is overly impressive, they will provide enough value for their salary cap number. Timmy Hill could provide value for you at $5,00, but poses a risk of a 43rd place finish.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com has a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula simply calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points for each driver’s last five Kansas races. Next, we divide this number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure. The end result is a number that illustrates how many fantasy live points to expect from each salary cap dollar for every driver at the race. I may regret benching Jimmie Johnson, and I will use his Kansas numbers as a small consolation to his team.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT KANSAS

  • Laps led last five Kansas races: 85 equals 8.5 fantasy live points per race
  • Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Average finish position: 6th place average equals 38 fantasy live points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 6 equals 6 fantasy live points per race
  • Average points per race: 52.50
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap figure: $27.75
  • Points per salary cap dollar: 52.50 divided by $27.75 equals 1.89 points per dollar

See the Fantasy Live points per dollar below for each driver other the last five Kansas races. This week’s recommended team is in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Matt Kenseth 2.31
  • Kevin Harvick 2.29
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.89
  • Jeff Gordon 1.73
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.56
  • Brad Keselowski 1.56
  • Carl Edwards 1.44
  • Clint Bowyer 0.98
  • Joey Logano 0.71
  • Kyle Busch 0.36

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.87
  • Kasey Kahne 1.93
  • Aric Almirola 1.69
  • Paul Menard 1.56
  • Tony Stewart 1.54
  • Denny Hamlin 1.49
  • Jamie McMurray 1.22
  • Austin Dillon 1.19
  • Greg Biffle 1.15
  • Kyle Larson 1.10
  • Kurt Busch 1.09
  • Marcus Ambrose 0.95
  • Ryan Newman 0.40
  • Brian Vickers 0.35

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Casey Mears 1.09
  • Danica Patrick 1.06
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.64
  • AJ Allmendinger 0.43
  • Justin Allgaier (-1.00)

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Cole Whitt 1.81
  • David Ragan 1.48
  • David Gilliland 0.97

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Timmy Hill 4.60
  • Michael Annett 3.20
  • Landon Cassill 2.40
  • Josh Wise 1.66
  • Reed Sorenson 1.11
  • Alex Bowman 0.82
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Kansas Speedway, Hollywood Casino 400

Kyle Busch climbs from his tore up race car at Kansas Speedway

The 2014 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Challenger Round is over and the Contender round starts next week at Kansas Speedway. AJ Allmendinger, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, and Aric Almirola have been eliminated from the Chase. The twelve drivers that advance will all have their points reset to 3,000 and the four drivers who are lowest in points among those twelve that don’t win one of the next three races will be eliminated and will not advance to the third round.

The next two races will be run on mile and a half tracks and the third race of the Contender round will be a restrictor plate race at Talladega. You can bet that the remaining Chase drivers want to be locked into the next round before they get to Talladega. That means that the race this week at Kansas Speedway is very important to all of these drivers. Kansas Speedway is very similar to Chicagoland Speedway, which was where the first Chase race was run this season, so those who did well at Chicago should do well once again this weekend.

HOLLYWOOD CASINO 400

Jimmie Johnson: I am going to pick Jimmie to win the first race of the Contender round. Jimmie has two career wins at Kansas Speedway and has finished in the top ten here in fourteen of his sixteen starts. Those are very impressive stats and I think this team is going to take the next step towards moving on the the next round of the Chase this weekend. They seem to be getting a little better every week and have found some of the speed they had lost over the middle of the season.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has won three races at Kansas and is really looking like a championship contender. After winning the race at Dover last weekend, this team has momentum and confidence on their side. I look for Jeff to run towards the front of the pack all day on Sunday and have a shot at the win in the final laps. Jeff has also finished in the top ten here in twelve of his seventeen starts.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has won two races at Kansas and this team, which is still looking for their first win of the season, just keeps finishing in the top ten every week and moving along. All they have to do is keep qualifying for the next round and then win their first race of the season at Homestead and Matt will have another championship to celebrate. They need to find a little bit more speed though to do it.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won this race last year, finished second here this spring, sat on the pole here for the last two races, and has been fast all season. I look for him to once again qualify in the top five and perhaps win another pole. They just need to have their luck change a little bit and they will find themselves back in victory lane very soon.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has finished in the top ten in half of the races he has run at this track. They need to improve on their performance as the Chase continues and I think they will do that over the next three races. Dale is very good at all of the tracks he will visit during this stage of the Chase. Even though he has never won at Kansas, this is the type of track he excels at.

Brad Keselowski: Brad won a race at Kansas in 2011 and he won the first Chase race at Chicagoland. Like I said earlier, this track is very much like Chicagoland and the drivers that ran well there will have an advantage with their setups when they get to the track this week. Brad has been fast in all of the Chase races and leads the series in wins this season with five so far.

Joey Logano: Joey won the second Chase race and should have a fast car once again this weekend. Both of the Penske cars have shown a lot of speed all year and even though Joey has struggled at Kansas for much of his career, he has finished in the top five in his last two starts here.

Carl Edwards: Carl has been really good at Kansas during his career, finishing in the top ten in ten of his fourteen starts there. However, this team has really struggled to find speed on this type of track for most of the year and they will need to find it soon with most of this segment of the Chase being run on this type of track. I think there are better drivers to choose for your team this week.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey overcame some problems last week at Dover and races his way into the Contender round by not giving up. Now he heads to Kansas where he has been very good lately with five top ten finishes in his last six starts. This team could win one of the next two races and propel themselves into the third round of the Chase. These are the types of tracks where Kasey has been very good his whole career.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR KANSAS SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Joey Logano
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Tony Stewart

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT KANSAS SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Kevin Harvick
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Matt Kenseth

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Kyle Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Dover International Speedway, AAA 400

Ricky Stenhouse Jr wrecked NASCAR Dover

Both of the Penske drivers have won a race in the Chase and are guaranteed a place in the next round after Joey Logano won the race on Sunday at New Hampshire. Many of the other Chase drivers found a lot of trouble on the track and now they have one race to move into the top twelve in the standings or they will be eliminated from the Chase. Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, and Matt Kenseth were all involved in crashes that put them in a precarious position heading to Dover this week.

AAA 400

The first elimination race will be held at Dover International Speedway, which is a one-mile concrete oval with a lot of banking in the corners also known as the Monster Mile. The last five Chase spots are going to be up for grabs as all of the drivers from eighth to sixteenth are all within twelve points of each other. A mistake on the track or on pit road will end the season for a driver, so all of the drivers who are in the eighth thru sixteenth positions will be nervous next weekend.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie is my pick to get back to his winning ways this weekend at Dover. Jimmie has won the last two races at this track and has nine career wins here. This team knows that they are going to have to win races during the Chase to have any chance of winning another championship and they will get their first win of the Chase this weekend.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has four career wins at this track and has finished in the top five in three of his last four starts here. Jeff should remain in the top twelve in points no matter where he finishes in this race, but would love to pick up his first win of the Chase and gain some points Brad Keselowski as the Chase continues.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has also finished in the top five here in three of his last four starts including a win in this race two years ago. He is already locked in the next round by virtue of his win at Chicagoland in the first race of the Chase and leads the point standings right now.

Joey Logano: Joey picked up his fourth win of the season and first of the Chase as he heads to Dover this weekend. Joey has not won a race at Dover yet, but he has run well there lately. He has five straight top ten finishes and just needs to stay in contention and pick up a few points each week on those ahead of him in the standings. Both of the Penske drivers look very good so far during the Chase.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin is another driver who has yet to win a race at Dover. Kevin has finished in the top ten in three of his last five starts here. This team has had a car that could contend for a win almost every week this season and need to pick up some wins during the Chase to keep advancing.

Clint Bowyer: Clint hasn’t won a race yet this season and didn’t make the Chase, but that doesn’t mean this team won’t win any races during the Chase. Clint has finished in the top ten in seven straight races at Dover and they will be confident heading into the weekend. Clint is a great driver and just needs to have luck on his side to get a win this year.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale finished second in this race last season and has finished in the top eleven in his last five starts at Dover. This team needs to run a little better to keep advancing and giving themselves a shot to win the championship. I think this week will be the one where they get back to having a contending car and that will give them confidence moving forward.

Matt Kenseth: Matt is currently in eighth place in the standings, but only eight points ahead of Denny Hamlin and Greg Biffle who are tied in points and sit in thirteenth and fourteenth place heading to the final race of the Challenger round of the Chase. Matt has run well at Dover recently finishing in the top ten in five of his last seven starts. He needs another top ten finish to make sure he moves into the Contender round.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has won two races at this track during his career and showed me that he can remain calm and is able to fight back from adversity, which is something you need to do to stay in contention. After being involved in a wreck last week at Loudon, Kyle fought back the remainder of the race and salvaged a top ten finish. He has finished in the top ten at Dover in seven of his last nine starts.

Kyle Larson: Kyle has been in contention in a lot of races lately and he finished eleventh in his only start at Dover back in June. Kyle looks like he is going to win a race very soon and wrap up rookie of the year honors. He seems to have a good head on his shoulders when he is interviewed after an accident and doesn’t get upset over things he can’t control. This guy is just going to keep getting better as his career progresses.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Jeff Gordon

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Joey Logano
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Carl Edwards
  • Denny Hamlin

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Jeff Gordon
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Matt Kenseth
  5. Clint Bowyer

Dark Horse: Clint Bowyer

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Sylvania 300

NASCAR Fantasy Live for New Hampshire Motor Speedway

We have completed one race of the new NASCAR playoff format and the only driver who is safe to advance is Brad Keselowski. He earned the win threading Kyle Larson and Jeff Gordon in an exciting Chicago finish. This week, we head back north to Loudon, a short flat track that will benefit most of the top drivers in the series. For Fantasy NASCAR enthusiasts, we have one less week to hold a lead or gain on our competition. My suggested strategy this week is the same as most races: Choose your three favorite drivers and fill in the remaining salary cap with the best possible budget drivers for the final two spots.

Two drivers from the Hendrick team are on the top of my list this week. Images are dashing through my head of Jimmie Johnson flat tires, but he remains one the most consistent drivers at New Hampshire. Since 2005, Johnson has the most fast laps and the second-most laps led. Johnson has finished in the Top Ten for 20 of his last 27 races. While running in the Top 15 for 82% of his laps since 2005, Johnson is a consistent driver and has a high probability for success.

Johnson’s teammate, Jeff Gordon, is the second choice for this week’s team. Like Johnson, Gordon has shown consistency at the track with a series-best 86% of his laps in the Top 15 since 2005. Gordon is second in the series in fast laps during this same time span. Gordon is one of the best drivers in the Sprint Cup in 2014, and expectations are high for him.

Last week, I suggested starting Keselowski because Brad Keselowski with an average history at a track is a recipe for success in 2014. Keselowski can run at New Hampshire with the fifth-best average finish position since 2005. His team has four victories already in 2014, and he is a frontrunner for a win every week.

Choosing three of the top drivers in the series leaves little salary cap room for the final two drivers. Reed Sorenson is at a budget value of $7.50 and has seen moderate success at the track. With Top 20 finishes in 6 of his 18 starts, he has proven the ability to be competitive. I am not anticipating a Top 20 finish out of Sorenson, but even a 30th place finish would provide value for him. I was between two rookies for the final spot on my roster. Alex Bowman actually had six fast laps earlier this year, but he is so risky that I am leaning towards a safer rookie. Michael Annett keeps me under the salary cap and has not disappointed me this year when he has been on my roster.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com has a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, final position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply selecting a super team, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. In order to locate potential value, our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver and divides that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number to give you an idea how many Fantasy Live points to expect for each of your fantasy dollars. Denny Hamlin has a great history of success at New Hampshire. I wanted him on my roster, but unfortunately he missed the cut for the drivers listed above. As a consolation prize, we will use Hamlin’s historical data at New Hampshire to illustrate this formula.

DENNY HAMLIN AT NEW HAMPSHIRE

  • Total laps led last five September New Hampshire races: 215 laps equals 21.5 points per race
  • Fast laps: cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Average finish position last five years: 9th place equals 35 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 4 differential equals four points per race
  • Total Fantasy Live points per race: 60.5
  • Denny Hamlin Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $23.00
  • Points per fantasy dollar: 60.5 / $23 = 2.63 points per dollar

Please see each driver’s points per dollar below. For rookies, we are using their numbers from the race earlier this year to give you an idea what to expect from them. This week’s suggested picks are in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Clint Bowyer 2.18
  • Matt Kenseth 1.86
  • Jeff Gordon 1.68
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.57
  • Brad Keselowski 1.43
  • Kyle Busch 1.38
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.27
  • Carl Edwards 1.22
  • Kevin Harvick 0.98
  • Joey Logano 0.97
  • Kasey Kahne 0.86

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Denny Hamlin 2.63
  • Kyle Larson 2.29
  • Tony Stewart 2.09
  • Austin Dillon 1.86
  • Brian Vickers 1.70
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.62
  • Greg Biffle 1.58
  • Ryan Newman 1.35
  • Jamie McMurray 1.31
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.13
  • Kurt Busch 1.06
  • Aric Almirola 1.05
  • Marcus Ambrose 0.93
  • Paul Menard 0.61

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 1.60
  • Danica Patrick 1.59
  • Casey Mears 0.60
  • Justin Allgaier (-0.33)

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Ragan 1.91
  • David Gilliland 1.04

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Ryan Truex 2.42
  • Cole Whitt 2.14
  • Alex Bowman 2.12
  • Michael Annett 2.05
  • Landon Cassill 0.93
  • Reed Sorenson 0.67
  • Joe Nemecheck 0.13