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Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Martinsville, Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500

martinsville speedway nascar race 2013

The racing gods are on Brad Keselowski’s side this season. On an unpredictable restrictor plate track, Keselowski avoided elimination by winning in Alabama. We are now down to four races and eight drivers until the end of the 2014 season. We are also running out of time in Fantasy Racing and you need to be conservative if you are leading or take risks to catch up to the league leader. We are on a more predictable track in Martinsville and should be a welcome relief to those of us who take the time to analyze the numbers.

With the more predictable nature of Martinsville Speedway, the best strategy is to choose your three favorite drivers. The final two roster spots should be the best value drivers with the remaining salary cap. My first pick was recently eliminated from the championship and has dominating race statistics at the track. Jimmie Johnson had 15 Top Five finishes at Martinsville in his last 19 races. With 93% of his laps in the Top 15 and an average running position of 5.6 since 2005, Johnson is expected to run near the top. Short tracks produce more laps to lead, so there is a greater benefit to choose drivers with favorable running positions. Johnson is the best in the series in fast laps and laps led and should be an asset to your team this week.

The second choice in my lineup, Jeff Gordon, rivals his teammate’s success in Virginia. Gordon also has 15 Top Five finishes in his last 19 Martinsville races. Gordon is second to Johnson in lap-to-lap performance, laps led, fast laps, and average finish position since 2005. The biggest difference between the two drivers is that Gordon can still win the championship and has ben a more consistent driver in 2014.

My original third choice for my roster was Denny Hamlin because Hamlin was the third-best driver in all track statistics. After selecting my budget choices on my roster, I had enough cap space to upgrade to Brad Keselowski. Although he has not had dominating numbers at Martinsville, my addition to my roster is due to his success in the 2014 season. Keselowski has proven to be a force even on tracks where he is statistically average. I expect a solid run after he squeaked through to the next round.

These selections allowed little salary cap space for my last two roster spots. My expectations are low but should still maintain value due to the low salary cap number. Michael Annett finished in 31st place earlier this season at Martinsville. Landon Cassill has averaged a 27th place in his last five races. If both drivers duplicate their efforts, they should provide enough value to be worth a roster spot.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com has a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five races at Martinsville. Then, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how many points to expect from each driver. Denny Hamlin got bumped from my lineup in favor of Brad Keselowski. As a consolation prize, we will use his Martinsville numbers to further illustrate the formula.

DENNY HAMLIN AT MARTINSVILLE

  • Laps Led Last Five Martinsville Races: 57 laps equals 5.7 points per race
  • Fast Laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Average Finish Position: 16th place = 28 points per race
  • Start to Finish Differential: Negative 14 = -14 points per race
  • Total points per race: 19.70
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $23.50
  • Fantasy Points Per Dollar: 19.7 divides by 23.50 equals 0.84 points per dollar

Please review the fantasy points per dollar for each driver below with this week’s recommendations highlighted in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 5.52
  • Jeff Gordon 3.14
  • Matt Kenseth 2.57
  • Clint Bowyer 2.50
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.59
  • Carl Edwards 1.32
  • Brad Keselowski 1.26
  • Kyle Busch 1.17
  • Kevin Harvick 1.01
  • Joey Logano 0.82

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Austin Dillon 2.23
  • Greg Biffle 2.08
  • Aric Almirola 1.94
  • Marcus Ambrose 1.61
  • Kurt Busch 1.23
  • Brian Vickers 1.20
  • Paul Menard 1.16
  • Tony Stewart 1.06
  • Kasey Kahne 0.94
  • Jamie McMurray 0.85
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.85
  • Denny Hamlin 0.84
  • Ryan Newman 0.71
  • Kyle Larson 0.13

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 2.35
  • Danica Patrick 1.91
  • Justin Allgaier 1.53
  • Casey Mears 1.43
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.15

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Gilliland 1.92
  • Cole Whitt 1.09
  • David Ragan 0.30

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Landon Cassill 2.55
  • Michael Annett 2.44
  • Josh Wise 0.87
  • Reed Sorenson 0.38
  • Alex Bowman (-1.09)
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Martinsville Speedway, Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500

Jeff Gordon celebrates in victory lane at Martinsville Speedway

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Contender round is in the books and the start of the Eliminator round starts next Sunday. Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, and Kyle Busch were all knocked out of the Chase. There are eight drivers left with a chance to win this year’s Sprint Cup championship and after the next three races we will be down to four drivers and one race to determine this season’s champion.

GOODY’S HEADACHE RELIEF SHOT 500

The first race of the Eliminator round will be held at Martinsville Speedway. Martinsville, at .526-miles in length, is the shortest track in the NASCAR series. With only 12 degrees of banking in the corners, it is also one of the flattest tracks on the circuit. It is shaped like a paperclip and has asphalt for straightaways and concrete through the turns. Trust me, there is going to be a lot of bumping and banging once again this week as eight drivers try to advance to the next round and thirty-five other drivers just try to get a win.

Jeff Gordon: I am picking Jeff to win this race and advance to the NASCAR Sprint Cup title race. Jeff only made it into this round by three points and he doesn’t want to come that close to being eliminated again. Jeff has won eight races during his career at Martinsville including this race last year. I think he will repeat that feat and propel himself to the final round.

Jimmie Johnson: Even though Jimmie has been eliminated from the Chase, this team is still going to do everything they can to win more races. Jimmie also has eight wins at this track and will give Jeff a run for his money in this race. I just don’t know what happens if the race is between Jeff and Jimmie at the end. Does Jimmie give Jeff the win so Hendrick Motorsports has a guaranteed qualifier for the championship, or does he do everything in his power to win the race?

Denny Hamlin: Denny is still in the Chase and he is another driver who has always been very good at this track also. Denny has four wins at this track, although he hasn’t won a race here since 2010. I think if Denny is going to win a Chase race it is either going to be here or at Phoenix during this stretch. Still, he has finished in the top five in over half of the races he has run here.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has never won a race at Martinsville during his career, but he has finished in the top ten there in over half of his starts. This team is disappointed they didn’t advance in the Chase and needs to continue to improve and try and pick up wins as they look towards next season. They need to become more consistent and that is something they can work on now.

Tony Stewart: Tony has struggled for much of this season, but he still has a driver in the Chase in Kevin Harvick. Tony has three wins at Martinsville and has finished in the top ten in half of his starts at this track. He will be an invaluable asset to Kevin this week, because he can give him advice on how to get around this track. Look for him to be a factor in this race.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has one win at Martinsville and has run very well there lately. He has five top ten finishes in his last eight starts there including the win back in the spring of 2011. This team has been fast every week and has looked good during the Chase. I think they will be one of the teams to move on to the final round.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has yet to win a race here in his career, but he has only run here nine times. During those nine races he has finished in the top ten five times with his best finish being fourth. He had to win the race at Talladega last week to advance and once again he fought through adversity, in the form of an early race accident, and came away with the win he needed. Never count this team out.

Joey Logano: Joey, like Brad has won two races during the Chase and will be looking for another one this weekend. Martinsville hasn’t been one of his better tracks, as he has only three top ten finishes in eleven starts here. However he did finish fourth in the spring race and this team has also been fast most every week of the season.

Jamie McMurray: Jamie has some trouble last week at Talladega, but this team has been running very well over the past couple of months. Jamie has only one top five finish here in twenty-three starts, but he has finished in the top ten in twelve of those starts. He might not win here, but he does know how to drive on this track.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jeff Gordon
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Denny Hamlin
  • Tony Stewart
  • Jamie McMurray
  • Greg Biffle

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Austin Dillon
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY

  1. Jeff Gordon
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Tony Stewart
  5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Dark Horse: Jamie McMurray

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Talladega Superspeedway, GEICO 500

Rusty Wallace 1993 Talladega crash

Talladega is one of the most exciting races of the season, and the championship implications will only make the race more competitive. Restrictor plate tracks balance the field to the extent that there is little advantage from one team to the next. The results are unpredictable. As a result, your fantasy racing strategy for this week will be different than most. Dispensing Fantasy Racing advice is difficult as my guess is just as likely to fail as it is to succeed. That being said, some drivers have a better Talladega history than others. Below are my pre-qualifying Fantasy Live picks. My strategy is to start with this team and switch the picks with drivers who qualify near the back of the field. The points gained from start-to-finish differential should outweigh the fluky laps led number.

The driver with the most Fantasy Live points over the last five Talladega races is the first pick for my roster. Matt Kenseth has hopefully cooled off from his post-Charlotte riff with Brad Keselowski. Since 2005, Kenseth has a series-best average running position of 13.9 and runs 65% of his laps in the Top 15. Kenseth has 12 Top Twenty finishes in his last 19 Talladega races. He also led the most laps of any driver during this time span.

The second pick for my roster scared me earlier in the year at this race. He stayed in the back of the field to avoid the big wreck and is a risky strategy. With his championship situation, he may need to be more aggressive. Dale Earnhardt Jr. usually drives well at restrictor plate tracks. With an average running position of 14.7 and 60% of his laps in the Top 15, Junior has a chance to finish near the top. He is also third in laps led since 2005.

The third choice for my roster is Brian Vickers. Vickers has 5 Top Five finishes in his last 13 Talladega races. Vickers has a 17th place average finish position and spends 57% of his laps in the Top 15. David Ragan is a great bargain as he drivers much better than his salary cap figure. Ragan has 7 Top Ten finishes in his last 15 starts and holds a 15th place average finish position since 2005. He won this race last spring and has upside. He was running well earlier this year before being involved in a wreck.

There are plenty of options as any driver in the field has a legitimate shot at a Top 15 finish. My fifth roster spot goes to David Gilliland. Gilliland is not as dominant here as his teammate David Ragan, but he understands how to drive at restrictor plate tracks. Once again, my picks will be influenced by the qualifying order, and the weekly picks can change.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, average finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers ever week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula simply determines the average number of points each driver earned over the last five Talladega races and divides that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number that shows how many points to expect form each of your fantasy dollars. I almost picked Jeff Gordon over Dale Earnhardt Jr. simply due to his consistency in 2014. As a consolation prize, we will use his Talladega numbers to illustrate the points per dollar salary cap formula.

JEFF GORDON AT TALLADEGA

  • Total laps led last five Talladega races: 12 equals 1.2 fantasy points per race
  • Average finish position: 19th place equals 25 fantasy points per race
  • Fast Laps: cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative Ten equals (-10) fantasy points per race
  • Average points per race: 16.20
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.75
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 16.20 divides by $27.75 equals 0.58 points per dollar

See each driver’s fantasy points per dollar over the last five Talladega race with this week’s picks in bold. Check the comments after qualifying for some additional advice.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Matt Kenseth 2.15
  • Kyle Busch 1.60
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.55
  • Clint Bowyer 1.51
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.14
  • Brad Keselowski 1.13
  • Kevin Harvick 1.07
  • Jeff Gordon 0.58
  • Ryan Newman 0.48
  • Carl Edwards 0.28

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Brian Vickers 2.43
  • Kyle Larson 2.37
  • Greg Biffle 1.82
  • Jamie McMurray 1.46
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.42
  • Paul Menard 1.37
  • Aric Almirola 1.19
  • Kasey Kahne 0.95
  • Denny Hamlin 0.95
  • Kurt Busch 0.66
  • Austin Dillon 0.65
  • Marcus Ambrose 0.55
  • Joey Logano 0.19
  • Tony Stewart (-0.01)

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.57
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.49
  • Casey Mears 1.05
  • Justin Allgaier 0.53
  • Danica Patrick 0.22

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Ragan 4.87
  • David Gilliland 3.53
  • Michael Waltrip 1.68
  • Cole Whitt 1.67
  • Trevor Bayne 0.21

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Travis Kvapil 5.23
  • JJ Yeley 4.15
  • Landon Cassill 4.00
  • Michael Annett 3.22
  • Michael McDowell 2.53
  • Terry Labonte 2.50
  • Alex Bowman 2.24
  • Josh Wise 1.33
  • Reed Sorenson (-0.25)
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Talladega Superspeedway, Geico 500

nascar sprint cup race talladega stewart crash

I’m not going to blame any of the drivers for what happened after the race last weekend at Charlotte. All I am going to say is that the pressure is building with drivers championship hopes on the line and if you thought last weekend was intense just wait and see what happens this weekend at Talladega.

The third and final Chase race in the Contender round will be run at Talladega Superspeedway on a restrictor plate track. The only two drivers who are safely into the next round are Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick. None of the other ten drivers still in the Chase are guaranteed to move on to the Eliminator round. Some of these drivers are desperate to win this race, and that combined with a restrictor plate race is going to make for some very interesting racing.

GEICO 500

Talladega Superspeedway is a 2.66-mile tri-oval track with a lot of banking in the corners. This is the reason NASCAR requires restrictor plates on the cars to slow them down or they would be running between 225 and 230 miles per hour, which they deemed too dangerous. Because of the restrictor plates, the drivers all end up in one big bunch, and the close quarters racing often ends up in “The Big One”. Now, put this together with desperate drivers who need to win to move on to the Eliminator round and you are going to see some fireworks to be sure.

Matt Kenseth: I am picking Matt to win this race and move on to the next round. Matt has lead more laps than any other driver at Talladega over the past two season by a big margin and won one of those races. He is always calm during the early stages of races and knows how to draft. He doesn’t have any enemies on the track and all of the other drivers trust him and will draft with him. This is what it takes to win this type of race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale needs to win this race to guarantee himself a spot in the Eliminator round. If he doesn’t win I think he needs to finish in the top five to have a chance to advance. With that said, Dale has lead the second most laps of any driver at Talladega over the past two seasons and finished second in this race last year.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie is another driver who almost has to win this race to keep his hopes of defending the Sprint Cup championship. Jimmie is just behind Junior in laps lead here over the past couple of years and should have a car capable of winning this race and qualifying him for the next round.

Kyle Busch: Kyle hasn’t lead a lot of laps over the past few races here, but he has finished in the top five in three of his last five starts at this track. Once again, Kyle needs to be patient during the early part of the race and just stay out of trouble. He doesn’t need to win this race, all he needs to do is stay clear of confrontations and huge wrecks and he will advance.

Greg Biffle: Greg was eliminated from the Chase in the first round and hasn’t had very good handling cars lately. However, he has been very good at Talladega lately, finishing in the top six in three of his last five starts. This team really has nothing to lose and will be a car that others who need to be up front will want to draft with come Sunday.

Clint Bowyer: Another driver who failed to make the Chase this season, Clint has been superb at Talladega over the last five years. During that ten race stretch, Clint has won two races, had four top five finishes, and seven top ten finishes. This is the consistency other drivers are looking at when trying to find someone to draft with and get them to the front of the field.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff knows that all he needs to do is stay out of trouble early in the race and come away with a good finishing position to move to the next Chase round. I have a feeling you are going to see a large group of drivers who are not desperate for a win this weekend hanging out in their own pack behind the main pack early in the race and making their move late in the race. Jeff could be one of these drivers.

David Ragan: David won the spring race here last season and has finished in the top ten in four of his last five starts here. This tells me that even though his team doesn’t have the money or the resources that the big name teams have, they are very competitive in this type of race. Another plus of using David this weekend is that he has nothing to lose and can just run his race.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey always seems to be very good here early in the race and then something happens to him either in the pits or on the track late in the race. This team is very capable of winning this race and should be able to run with the leaders for the entire race if they so choose. Having a clean pit stop and great restart late in the race will be key to this teams chances of winning.

Brad Keselowski: Brad might not have a lot of friends on the track this weekend, which could hurt his chances of winning this race, but he does have a teammate. That teammate is Joey Logano, who we all know is already qualified for the Eliminator round and will be there to help Brad win this race. If they can find each other on the track, Joey will be the driver that can push Brad to a victory.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR TALLLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Matt Kenseth
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Greg Biffle
  • David Ragan
  • Aric Almirola
  • Brian Vickers

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Michael Waltrip
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

  1. Matt Kenseth
  2. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  3. Jimmie Johnson
  4. Clint Bowyer
  5. Kyle Busch

Dark Horse: David Ragan

Stay Away From: Brad Keselowski

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Charlotte Motor Speedway, Bank of America 500

We saw some playoff contenders with poor finishes last week at Kansas. Kansas is usually a predictable race, and those of us who selected Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski, or Dale Earnhardt Jr. are reeling from last week’s picks. This week in North Carolina, we see a track where there is not a dominant driver. Instead, there is a pool of about a dozen racers who have a clear shot at success. The next two weeks, we will see some exciting races with high stakes and some separation in our fantasy leagues.

My first roster pick has already qualified for the next round of the playoffs. With the success of the Penske tandem this season, I want to roster one Penske driver if practical. Although his lap-to-lap performance is not excellent, Logano has the second-best average finish position in the series. With 58% of his laps in the Top 15 since 2005, Logano is eighth in the series in lap-to-lap performance. Based on his 2014 season, Logano should help my team this week.

The second pick on my roster performs better at Charlotte than any other track in the series and has the best average finish position in the series since 2005. Kasey Kahne has 9 Top 5 finishes in his last 19 Charlotte races. Kahne is second in the series in laps led and fast laps during this time span. Over the past five races, Kahne has the most laps led of any driver in the series. Kahne’s biggest drawback is that he did not lead any laps earlier in the year.

Jimmie Johnson won the Charlotte race earlier this year and has great track performance. However, he has disappointed my team a few times this year, and I am admittedly biased against him for at least a couple of weeks. Feel free to choose Johnson, but the third roster spot for my team will be Matt Kenseth. Although winless in 2014, Kenseth has been one of the best drivers in 2014. Matt Kenseth ranks between fourth and sixth in all statistical categories at the track. Kenseth has 10 Top Ten finishes in his last 19 races at the track.

With limited salary cap space for the remaining two roster spots, we needed to find a couple of budget drivers. I am glad to have researched this article because I discovered Trevor Bayne as an entered driver. Trevor Bayne maintains a 23rd place average at the track. He is worth his $11.75 price tag. Michael Annett, with a 28th place finish earlier this year, is the choice for the fifth roster spot.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers ever week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of points for the last five Charlotte races and divides this number by the salary cap figure for each driver. The end result is a number that helps predicts how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. I suggested Keselowski last week, and he rewarded my insight by finishing dead last in fantasy live points. As a result, I chose Logano over him this week. Keselowski can win at any track this year. As a consolation prize, I will use Keselowski’s Charlotte numbers to further illustrate our formula.

BRAD KESELOWSKI AT CHARLOTTE

  • Total laps led last five Charlotte races: 197 laps equals 19.7 fantasy live points per race
  • Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Average finish position: 12th place equals 32 fantasy live points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 5 equals 5 fantasy live points per race
  • Total fantasy live points per Charlotte race: 56.7
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $28.00
  • Points per Salary Cap Dollar: 56.7 / $28.00 equals 2.03 fantasy points per dollar

See this week’s fantasy live points per dollar numbers below with highlighted picks in bold. Good luck with your picks in Charlotte.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 2.44
  • Brad Keselowski 2.03
  • Kevin Harvick 1.98
  • Matt Kenseth 1.91
  • Carl Edwards 1.87
  • Kyle Busch 1.57
  • Ryan Newman 1.41
  • Clint Bowyer 1.27
  • Jeff Gordon 1.26
  • Joey Logano 1.21
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.68

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kasey Kahne 3.28
  • Austin Dillon 2.07
  • Greg Biffle 2.06
  • Denny Hamlin 1.87
  • Tony Stewart 1.85
  • Jamie McMurray 1.69
  • Brian Vickers 1.54
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.30
  • Paul Menard 1.18
  • Kurt Busch 0.97
  • Aric Almirola 0.86
  • Marcus Ambrose 0.63
  • Kyle Larson 0.57

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.21
  • Casey Mears 1.14
  • AJ Allmendinger 0.87
  • Danica Patrick 0.68

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Trevor Bayne 1.87
  • David Gilliland 1.53
  • David Ragan 1.07
  • Cole Whitt 0.47
  • Justin Allgaier (-0.88)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 3.09
  • Landon Cassill 2.28
  • David Stremme 1.57
  • Josh Wise 1.14
  • Michael McDowell 0.92
  • Alex Bowman 0.82
  • Reed Sorenson 0.53
  • Ryan Truex 0.48