Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 PHOENIX, QUICKEN LOANS RACE FOR HEROES 500

After the tire issues at Texas, you were left feeling very happy or not satisfied with the results last week. Those who went with the pole sitter Brad Keselowski had a shot in the arm in the standings. We now move back west to Phoenix, and seven Chase eligible drivers will be fighting for the final three spots. Phoenix is a track that benefits the top drivers, as the top five active drivers in average finish position over the past five Phoenix races are Chase eligible. My recommendation would be to front-load your lineup with Chase drivers unless you are in a desperate situation in your standings.

Even though the numbers show a high probability of success from the top drivers, you can take under-the-radar options if you need to gain points in the standings. Harvick should dominate the race. If you have been playing fantasy racing a while, you know to expect the unexpected. The season is almost over so there is little risk to swing for the fences if you need to gain ground.

Kevin Harvick has better numbers at Phoenix than any driver at any track. He should find his way onto most Fantasy lineups this week due to his dominating numbers. Harvick has won four of the last five races at Phoenix. Over this same stretch, Harvick has led 782 laps. To put that number into perspective, the 2nd best driver is Brad Keselowski with 159. In the 2015 race, Harvick led 224 laps on this way to victory. If those numbers are not convincing enough, Harvick has led the most laps of any driver in 2015 and has 20 top-5 finishes through 32 races. Harvick has also led the most laps on flat tracks in 2015 with an average finish position of 10.7 on this track type. You will likely not gain too much ground on your competition by inserting Harvick into your lineup, but you will not lose ground either. Harvick is on the bubble to advance, and this should keep his team from taking unnecessary risks.

There are four other drivers that will need to find your roster. By comparison, no other driver’s number will be close to Harvick’s. Joey Logano has the best average finish position of any driver in 2015 and has decent numbers at Phoenix. Over the past five races at the track, Logano has an average finish position of 10.6 and has four top-10 finishes. Earlier this season, Logano led 35 laps on his way to a 7th place finish. Logano has the best numbers on flat tracks this season. In nine races, Logano has eight top-10 finishes on flat tracks and an average finish position. Logano is closing strong as the season comes to a close and is expected to be a valuable fantasy contributor this week. It is all or nothing this week for Logano, and this could make him a surprise win this week.

Even though I can make arguments for a few non-Chase drivers, I want to have Chase-eligible drivers for the top three roster spots. Brad Keselowski, Carl Edwards, and Jeff Gordon all have impressive track data. Unless there is a convincing effort in practice or qualifying to change my mind, the 3rd roster spot will go to Brad Keselowski. The #2 car finished 6th at the track earlier this season and led 52 laps. Over the last five Phoenix races, Keselowski has four top-10 finishes and has spent 97% of his laps inside the top-15. He has been solid, but unspectacular for much of the season and maintains an 11th place average. Narrowly, Keselowski is a choice for my roster this week. I regret missing out of Keselowski last week. Like Logano, he will be going to broke this week.

There is little room for the remaining roster spots and no budget drivers I particularly like this week. Unfortunately, when a track favors top drivers as much as Phoenix, the flip side is that there are rarely good drivers at the bottom to pick from. Landon Cassill finished 22nd earlier this season and maintains a 31st average finish position in 2015. David Gilliland narrowly beats out David Ragan for the other budget spot. Gilliland finished 29th earlier this year and has been finishing in this range all season. I will likely switch these picks to low qualifiers in hope of gaining start-to-finish differential points because I do not like Cassill or Gilliland too much. I would be surprised to have the #38 car and #40 car on my roster when the race starts.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to keep us from starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the past five Phoenix races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how much value to expect from each driver. Jeff Gordon has been solid at Phoenix, but was beat out by Keselowski for the 3rd roster spot. As a consolation prize to the retiring driver, we will use his Phoenix numbers to further illustrate our formula. There is hope for the #24 team as last week’s consolation prize won the race in Texas.

JEFF GORDON AT PHOENIX

  • Average finish position last five Phoenix races: 7.8 equals 36.2 fantasy live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative One equals (-1) fantasy live points
  • Laps led: 53 equals 5.3 points per race
  • Fast laps: 75 equals 7.5 points per race
  • Fantasy Live points per race: 50
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $25.50
  • Fantasy Live points per salary cap dollar: 50 divided by $25.50 equals 1.96

Below you will find the numbers for each driver at Phoenix with my picks in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 5.69
  • Brad Keselowski 2.37
  • Carl Edwards 2.31
  • Jeff Gordon 1.96
  • Joey Logano 1.90
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.75
  • Kurt Busch 1.08
  • Denny Hamlin 1.00
  • Kyle Busch 0.52

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kasey Kahne 2.07
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.54
  • Ryan Newman 1.51
  • Jamie McMurray 1.49
  • Aric Almirola 1.41
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.19
  • Kyle Larson 1.16
  • Paul Menard 1.07
  • Clint Bowyer 0.90

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Greg Biffle 1.79
  • Austin Dillon 0.83
  • Erik Jones 0.16 *
  • Sam Hornish (-0.55)

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.59
  • AJ Allmendinger 2.56
  • Casey Mears 1.82
  • Tony Stewart 1.68
  • Trevor Bayne 1.66
  • Danica Patrick 1.07
  • Cole Whitt 1.04

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Joey Gase 4.00
  • JJ Yeley 3.64
  • Jeb Burton 3.40
  • Timmy Hill 2.80
  • Landon Cassill 2.60
  • Brett Moffitt 2.57
  • David Gilliland 2.10
  • Michael Annett 2.03
  • Justin Allgaier 1.68
  • David Ragan 1.47
  • Alex Bowman 1.25
  • Matt DiBenedetto 1.20

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Phoenix International Raceway, Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500

After a dominating performance at Texas this past weekend, Brad Keselowski still needs to win the race at Phoenix this week to move into the championship round of the Chase. That’s because Jimmie Johnson passed Brad towards the end of the race and took the win away from the driver who led 312 of the 334 laps run in that race. Brad remains nineteen points out of contention in sixth place in the standings.

QUICKEN LOANS RACE FOR HEROES 500

The final race in the Eliminator round will be held this coming weekend at Phoenix International Raceway. Phoenix is a one-mile flat oval track that was reconfigured in 2011. This year the track announced it will rename the track to the ‘Jeff Gordon’ Raceway for this weekends race in honor of the retiring driver. Jeff is the only Chase driver already qualified for the Championship round of the Chase so he can relax this weekend.

Kevin Harvick: I have to pick Kevin to win this weekend and move on to the final round of the Chase. The reason is simple. Kevin has won the last four races at Phoenix and five of the last six. Ever since this track was reconfigured it seems like no one has an answer for Kevin here and I don’t see that changing this weekend. If Kevin can stay out of trouble on the track and on pit-road and doesn’t have any mechanical issues, he will be able to defend his title at Homestead.

Brad Keselowski: As I stated earlier, Brad almost has to win this race to move on. He could get in on points if quite a few of the other Chase drivers have major problems during the race, but that isn’t likely. Brad has yet to win at this track, but he has finished in the top six in six of his last seven starts here. Look for him to push it to the edge of his limits late in the race to try and pull out his first win here.

Kurt Busch: Kurt is another driver who needs to win to move on. Kurt currently sits in seventh position, twenty-eight points out of the top four in the standings. The only thing Kurt has going for him this weekend is that he has won a race here during his career. However, that win came way back in 2005. Kevin could help Kurt out a little bit with his setup and some advice on how he gets around the track, but I’m not sure Kevin wants to give to much away as he needs to qualify for the final round himself.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie finally won another race this season and is always a threat to win multiple races in a row. He has always been good at Phoenix also with four career wins and fourteen to five finishes in his twenty-four starts at this track. Even though this team was eliminated from the Chase already, they still want to win races and get ready for next season. Jimmie won’t just give a race away to help anyone else out.

Joey Logano: Joey absolutely has no other choice than to win this week’s race if he wants to make the Chase. Even though he has finished in the top ten in his last four starts here, he is still looking for his first win. I’m not going to count him out, but I think he has a huge mountain to climb because there are so many other drivers that are in the Chase that have shown they are more consistent at this track and those drivers need the best finishes they can get too.

Carl Edwards: Carl is seven points out of the last championship round qualifying position right now. He needs to make up that many points on on fourth place Martin Truex Jr. if he wants to move on. That is if someone below him in the standings doesn’t win this race. Carl has two wins at this track and will be shooting for his third and hoping to fall no further than a fifth place finish at the least which will give him a chance.

Kyle Busch: Kyle won his only race at this track back in 2005 also. He currently sits second in the standings which gives him a very small cushion heading into this weekend. However, I don’t think any of these drivers will feel comfortable with the position they are in the standings until the checkered flag waves. Any small problem anywhere during this race can knock any of these drivers out of a chance to win a championship.

Martin Truex Jr.: This week is going to be really nerve wracking for Martin. He has started nineteen races at this track and his results haven’t been that great. He only has one top five and seven top ten finishes in those nineteen starts. While he doesn’t need to win this race to move on, he can’t afford to finish outside of the top fifteen. This team needs to do what they have been doing all year. Take what the track gives them early in the race and try to stay out of trouble and see what you need to do towards the end to move to the next round.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff will be the only Chase driver relaxed this weekend at Phoenix. His finishing position doesn’t really matter as he is already qualified for the Chase. He has won two races at this track during his career and has finished in the top ten here an astounding twenty-three times in thirty-three starts. Jeff has shown his consistency at this track throughout his career and he might pick up another win here this weekend.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale also has two wins at this track, but he hasn’t won here since 2004. This team has shown that they can race on any type of track this season and has also shown that even if they get behind for some reason during a race they won’t quit and they can fight their way back into contention. This team should be happy with the progress they have made this year and try to improve on that next season. A win this weekend would be a huge step for this team.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Kurt Busch
  • Carl Edwards
  • Jamie McMurray
  • Kyle Larson

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Erik Jones
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  5. Denny Hamlin

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Martin Truex Jr.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 TEXAS, AAA TEXAS 500

Matching the headlines for the last three weeks in the Chase will be difficult.

I am stuck somewhere between thinking Kenseth was justified to wreck Logano and upset because Logano was in every one of my fantasy lineups last week. We will see what else can happen this week in Texas, and Homestead will be interesting between the #22 and #20 if Logano fails to advance to the final round.

With only three races remaining in the NASCAR season, there is little opportunity to gain in your standings. Texas, Phoenix, and Homestead are all races that favor the frontrunners. Your best hope, if you are behind in the standings, is to select drivers who are under-the-radar and hope that you get lucky. My suggestion in Texas, like most weeks, is to front-load your lineup with the top-3 drivers and fill out your roster with two budget options. The next few weeks will be tense for Fantasy owners who are close in the standings, and choosing wisely will be critical as the season comes to a close.

For the top-3 spots, I am leaning towards drivers who are still in Chase contention. There are non-Chase drivers who can certainly find success, but I like to pick drivers who are racing for a Championship. Even with the events from last week, keeping Joey Logano out of your lineup is risky. Not only is he on a hot streak, but he also finds success in Texas. Over the last five Texas races, Logano for four top-5 finishes and maintains a 5th place average. He has only led 129 laps in this stretch, so he has seen consistent efforts that are not dominating. Early this year, Logano finished in 4th while staying in the top-15 for all of his laps. For large oval tracks, Logano has a 5th place average finish and has led the most laps in the series. Logano’s 7th place average finish position in 2015 is best in the series.

The combination of track success, season success, and track type success provides Logano with a high probability of success this week. The only risk with Logano this week’s is that the Martinsville drama carries over into Texas, and his performance is somehow affected. I do not anticipate this will be the case and am comfortable with Logano in my lineup.

For the second roster spot, I am going to lean on the driver who has helped my roster this entire season. Kevin Harvick does not have consistent success at Texas, but he did finish 2nd earlier in 2015. Over the last five Texas races, Harvick has two top-5 finishes and a 13th place average finish position. These numbers are not enough to convince you to roster him, but enough to show that Harvick is competitive in Texas. On large oval tracks this season, Harvick has led the most laps of any driver. Even though Logano now has a better average finish position now in 2015, Harvick has still led the most laps of any driver in 2015. Harvick is on the bubble to advance in the chase right now. Harvick is dominant on next week’s race in Phoenix, and I would expect a more conservative approach towards this week.

Jimmie Johnson was strongly considered for my 3rd roster recommendation due to his victory earlier this season. Down the stretch, the #48 team has finished worse than their average on a consistent basis so I am staying away from the team unless I see something in qualifying to change my mind. Of the Chase eligible driver, the one who finds the most consistency in Texas is Kyle Busch. Over the last five Texas races, Kyle Busch finish has three top-5 finishes and has a 5th place average finish. Busch missed the race earlier this season due to a broken leg. His numbers at large oval tracks and 2015 are not enough to warrant a start. Due to these number, Busch carries more risk than the other drivers suggested, but I feel he is the best option of the Chase eligible drivers. This is his best chance for an automatic qualifier and expect Kyle Busch to be aggressive this week.

Selecting three Chase eligible drivers uses the majority of my salary cap. As a result, the final two roster spots will be the best available budget options. David Ragan has not seen consistent success in Texas, with a 29th place average finish position over the last five races. With Kyle Busch’s team, Ragan finished 13th earlier in 2015. He is hovering around a 25th average finish position in 2015, and should provide enough value for his salary cap figure. There is not another budget driver I love, but will tentatively suggest Matt DiBenedetto until at least qualifying. DiBenedetto finished in 34th place earlier in 2015. This finish will only be value if he qualifies in the back of the field. I will keep an eye on qualifying and may start the 43rd driver in an effort to find value in start-to-finish differential.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format to manage the talent on our rosters. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Texas races. Next, we divide the average points earned by the salary cap figure to determine which drivers provide the best value in Texas. Jimmie Johnson narrowly missed my roster because I am keeping non-Chase eligible drivers off my roster. As a consolation prize, I will use Johnson’s impressive Texas numbers to further illustrate the formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT TEXAS

  • Average finish position last five Texas races: 6.8 equals 37.2 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Zero equals zero points per race
  • Laps led: 574 equals 57.4 points per race
  • Fast laps: 254 equals 25.4 points per race
  • Total Fantasy Live points per race: 120
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $24.50
  • Fantasy Live points divided by salary cap figure: 120 divided by $24.50 equals 4.9 points

Below you see the Fantasy Live rankings for each driver over the last five races at Texas. If you are wanting to take risks, you can take a driver with the 5th or 6th best numbers in hope that the unexpected happens. We are talking Fantasy racing, so there is always the possibility of getting lucky.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 4.90
  • Kyle Busch 3.01
  • Brad Keselowski 2.33
  • Joey Logano 2.24
  • Kevin Harvick 1.69
  • Denny Hamlin 1.55
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.23
  • Jeff Gordon 1.16
  • Kurt Busch 0.64

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.11
  • Clint Bowyer 1.86
  • Kasey Kahne 1.84
  • Kyle Larson 1.64
  • Ryan Newman 1.51
  • Jamie McMurray 1.45
  • Aric Almirola 1.29
  • Carl Edwards 1.12
  • Paul Menard 0.81

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Greg Biffle 2.33
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.38
  • Austin Dillon 1.20

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 2.68
  • Tony Stewart 2.35
  • Cole Whitt 1.84
  • Danica Patrick 1.69
  • Justin Allgaier 1.39
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.30
  • Trevor Bayne 1.17
  • Casey Mears 1.16
  • Ryan Blaney (-1.83)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Reed Sorenson 2.65
  • Michael Annett 2.64
  • Joey Gase 2.57
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.32
  • David Gilliland 2.24
  • JJ Yeley 2.20
  • Brett Moffitt 1.93
  • David Ragan 1.93
  • Landon Cassill 1.61
  • Michael McDowell 0.98
  • Alex Bowman 0.83
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Texas Motor Speedway, AAA Texas 500

You knew it was going to happen sooner or later and this was the week it happened. I’m talking about a Chase driver being taken out of a race by another driver in what could be payback for that driver not making it into the next round because of something they perceived was that other drivers fault. I feel sorry for Joey Logano’s fan, but I understand where Matt Kenseth was coming from. The Chase has made every driver qualified desperate to get the win they need to move to the next round and if they can’t be there any driver who prevented them from getting there because of an incident on the track is fair game.

AAA TEXAS 500

No matter if it was intentional or not, Joey Logano almost has to win one of the next two races to move to the championship round. Likewise, Brad Keselowski and Kurt Busch find themselves in a deep hole as we head to the second race of the third round of the Chase as the head to Texas Motor Speedway this week.

A late race restart that collected Matt, Brad, and Kurt started this whole thing. Brad was trying to help out his teammate, Joey Logano get to the inside lane of the track while he tried to hold the second position. What ensued was drivers trying to check up to avoid collisions and getting hit from behind themselves. Live by the sword and die by the sword is what resulted. These next three races are going to be very interesting with three drivers desperately needing a win to keep their hopes alive for a championship.

Joey Logano: I am going to pick Joey to come out and win this race and qualify himself for the championship round of the Chase. Joey has a win and four top five finishes in his last five starts at this track and conceivably could have won his fourth straight race if not for the wreck that took him out as he was leading the race. A race that he dominated for most of the day. This week comes redemption.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin had a decent finish at Martinsville last week, but he only has a six point lead over Carl Edwards as he sits in the bubble spot. Kevin has yet to win a race at Texas, but he has finished second in his last two starts there. He will be in contention once again at the end of this race as long as he doesn’t have any mechanical issues and can avoid penalties on pit road.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie hasn’t run that well lately, but he is always someone to watch for at Texas. With five wins and twelve top five finishes in twenty-four starts this team really knows how to get around this track in a hurry. Four of those wins have come in his last six start at this track including the last two races he has run here. Time for this team to get back to victory lane.

Kyle Busch: Kyle is another driver who has run very well at Texas recently. Although he missed the spring race this year while he was recovering from injuries suffered in the Nationwide race at Daytona, he has one win and four top five finishes in his last five starts here also. He would like another great finish this week to take a little pressure off heading to Phoenix where he doesn’t want to have to win to move on to Homestead.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff got his ninth win at Martinsville which propelled him into the championship round in his final season in NASCAR. Jeff hasn’t run very well at Texas over the past several seasons with only four top ten finishes in his last twelve starts and he will probably use this race to do some testing for Homestead. There will be no pressure on the team this week, but they will want to see how they fair on this mile-and-a-half track to see what needs to be done when they get to Homestead.

Carl Edwards: Carl has three wins at this track during his career and needs to have a great run this weekend as he tries to move into the top four in points. This team has been very inconsistent all season and ended up benefiting from what happened at Martinsville last weekend. Carl was a lap down and with all of the cautions he finally got back on the lead lap and ended up fourteenth. Far ahead of those drivers who were involved in the incident.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has one win at this track, but this hasn’t been his favorite track to run on during his career. He needs to have a car as good as Kevin Harvick this week once practice is finished if he has any chance of winning this race and qualifying for the second round. His biggest hope is Phoenix where he has been very good throughout his career and that is a race I think he can win.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is still looking for his first win at Texas and when Brad really needs to do something he has a good chance of getting that something done. This team won last year to move themselves on during the Chase in a must win situation and he has two shots at getting it done once again this year. With three drivers desperate for a win I think we are going to see some of them take some big risks to win this race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has run very well this year and came within inches of making it to this round at Talladega a few weeks ago. He ran very well at Martinsville last week and the mile-and-a-half tracks are more to this teams liking. Dale won his first race here back in 2000 and has finished in the top ten in seven of his last nine starts here. This team might be out of the Chase, but they are doing everything they can to win another race this season.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin is still looking for his first win at Texas, but he has nine top ten finishes to show for his twenty starts at this track and he has run well on the intermediate tracks all season. A win would be nice, but I think he would be happy with another top ten finish like he got last week at Martinsville and try to make the championship race on points if he has to.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Joey Logano
  • Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Jamie McMurray
  • Aric Almirola
  • Kasey Kahne

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Ryan Blaney
  • Justin Allgaier

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Joey Logano
  2. Kevin Harvick
  3. Jimmie Johnson
  4. Kyle Busch
  5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Dark Horse: Martin Truex Jr.

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 MARTINSVILLE, GOODY’S HEADACHE RELIEF SHOT 500

Now that the stress and excitement of a playoff restrictor plate track race is over, NASCAR has its last short track of the season at Martinsville Speedway. From a Fantasy Live perspective, your goal should be to capture the laps led statistic this week due to the extra laps. My recommendation would be to front-load your lineup with the three drivers who are still Chase eligible. The bottom two spots should be the two best available budget options.

If you are behind in the standings, this is a good opportunity to swing for the fences. If an under-the-radar driver dominates the race, then you can shoot up the standings. If you are near the top of the standings, I would recommend taking the more conservative lineup below.

Since the playoffs have started, there is no driver with more momentum than Joey Logano. Through 31 races in 2015, Logano’s average finish position of 7.9 is the best of any driver. Earlier this season at Martinsville, Logano led 108 laps on his way to a 3rd place finish. With three top-10 finishes over the last five races at the track, the #22 team will likely stay competitive this week. Logano has seen success on flat tracks this season. In nine races for this track type, Logano has enjoyed seven top-5 finishes and the 2nd most laps led of any driver on flat tracks this season. My only concern with Logano is that he may have lost some friends after spinning Kenseth at Kansas, but this is not enough of a reason to keep him off of my roster.

The next roster recommendation has been a consistent choice on my roster this season. Kevin Harvick has 20 top-5 finishes already in 2015. Over the recent weeks, he seems to be running in the top-5, but is not claiming the same laps led and fast lap points that he earned earlier this season. In the March race, Harvick led 154 laps on his way to a 7th place finish. Over the last five Martinsville races, Harvick has three top-10 finishes and a 13th place average finish position. Harvick has led 772 laps in nine flat track races this season, good for the most in the series. I do not know if Harvick will be the driver who takes the checker this week, but I think he will be near the front and not harm my roster. After a controversial Talladega finish, I expect the #4 team to be have a high chance for fantasy relevance this week.

Originally, I had Denny Hamlin as the third option due to his victory earlier this year. Instead, I want a Chase eligible driver for the third spot. About half-way through the season, I decided not to put Jeff Gordon on my roster in every circumstance. Now, he has advanced to the playoffs, and Martinsville is one of his best tracks. Gordon has a 5th place average finish position over his last five races at the tracking, including earning one grandfather clock during this time span. Earlier this year, he finished a modest 9th place. Although he only maintains a 15th place average in 2015 races, Gordon has an excellent chance for success this week.

With a front-loaded lineup, there was limited cap space for the final two spots. David Ragan finished 5th in the March race with Kyle Busch’s equipment. He maintains a 23rd place average finish position over the last five Martinsville races. His average finish position at flat racks is better than other track types. Ragan should outperform his value this week. Tentatively, the 5th roster spot is set for Matt DiBenedetto. Although he only finished in 31st earlier this season, his team usually performs adequately enough not to damage your roster spot. In the 28 races he started in 2015, DiBenedetto has a 31st place average. As always, make sure to watch qualifying to determine which budget options to use. I would recommend chasing after a driver who can get start-to-finish differential. There should be some close racing this week. A driver who qualifies 43rd can benefit from the DNFs that are likely to accommodate the race.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the five best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five Martinsville races. Next, we divide that number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure to determine which drivers provide value. I have a tendency to avoid drivers who are eliminated from the Chase. For this reason, I will not have Jimmie Johnson on my roster. However, he has the most Fantasy Live points of any driver at Martinsville. We will use his numbers to further illustrate our formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT MARTINSVILLE

  • Average finish position last five Martinsville races: 15th equals 29 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 11.2 equals (-11.2) Fantasy Live points
  • Laps led: 765 equals 76.5 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast laps: 239 equals 23.9 Fantasy Live points
  • Total Fantasy Live points earned by race: 118.2
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $24.75
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 118.2 divided by $24.75 equals 4.78 points per dollar

Below you will find the Fantasy Live points per driver for each driver in Martinsville. Make sure to front-load your lineup this week and set your lineups after qualifying.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 4.78
  • Jeff Gordon 3.36
  • Matt Kenseth 3.24
  • Denny Hamlin 2.57
  • Kevin Harvick 2.26
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.03
  • Joey Logano 1.99
  • Kyle Busch 1.71
  • Carl Edwards 1.15
  • Kurt Busch 1.14
  • Brad Keselowski 1.10

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Clint Bowyer 3.10
  • Aric Almirola 1.76
  • Jamie McMurray 1.57
  • Kasey Kahne 1.54
  • Paul Menard 1.28
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.76
  • Ryan Newman 0.40
  • Kyle Larson 0.11

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Greg Biffle 2.31
  • Austin Dillon 1.58
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.16

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Trevor Bayne 3.02
  • Tony Stewart 2.47
  • Danica Patrick 2.50
  • Cole Whitt 2.30
  • Casey Mears 1.94
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.53
  • Justin Allgaier 1.43
  • Ricky Stenhouse 0.49

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Kyle Fowler 6.00
  • JJ Yeley 3.89
  • Jeb Burton 3.60
  • Landon Cassill 3.46
  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.33
  • Michael Annett 3.31
  • Alex Kennedy 3.17
  • Brett Moffitt 3.00
  • David Gilliland 2.97
  • David Ragan 2.01
  • Alex Bowman 1.13
  • Timmy Hill 0.21