Fantasy NASCAR Blog

The playoff field has been set after a rain delayed finally of the regular season on Monday. NASCAR didn’t need this to happen as they are losing fans at an alarming rate and to have one of the biggest races of the season get postponed by rain was a disaster. Most people attending race weekends have an itinerary that sends them home after the race on Sunday or early Monday morning. A lot of fans have to be back to work on Monday or Tuesday and can’t attend a race that has been postponed. This could have a huge affect with people buying tickets to the final race of the regular season next year.

SOUTH POINT 400

Kyle Busch won the regular season championship and he and Kevin Harvick will enter the playoffs in a virtual tie with the same amount of playoff points which is fifty for each. Martin Truex Jr. will start fifteen points behind those two drivers and Brad Keselowski is seeded fourth already thirty-one points behind the leaders. Points are reset after each three race stage for those advancing, so you can see the advantage the top two drivers have in their quest to make the championship race in Miami at the end of the year.

So, the playoff start at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway with the running of the South Point 400. This is the first of many intermediate tracks on the circuit that have all been won by drivers in a Ford or a Toyota this season. I see this trend continuing through the playoffs unless someone in a Chevrolet wins on fuel mileage or some great pit strategy that plays out well for them. Drives who are in a Chevy that I think have a chance of winning on one of these tracks are Chase Elliott or Kyle Larson.

Kevin Harvick: I am picking Kevin to win the first race of the playoffs and get himself qualified for the second round right away and gain at least another five playoff points going forward. He has won two of the last four races here while leading over 350-laps in those two wins. This team has been fast every week with no exceptions. The only thing that can stop them this week if trouble on pit road which has plagued them quite a bit this season.

Kyle Busch: Not to be outdone by too much, Kyle has three top five finishes in his last five starts here including a runner-up finish this spring. He considers this his hometown track and hasn’t won here since the 2009 season. Kyle knows how important it is to gain more playoff points to get him through every round as he sets his sights on Miami in November.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin won the race at Las Vegas last year and has three top five finishes in his last four starts here. This is where Martin made his bread and butter when he won the championship last season. He has quite a few playoff points which should help him get through the first round, but after that one bad race could cost him. I look for him to contend here once again this week.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is on a roll with back to back wins in the two races leading up to the playoffs. He has finished in the top seven in his last six starts at Las Vegas including two wins in that stretch. It means a lot to know you have the speed and handling to win races at this point of the season, so this team will come into the playoffs with a lot of confidence. I look for them to run towards the front of the field again this week.

Ryan Blaney: Ryan has had a fast car for most of the year and sat on the pole for the spring race here and finished fifth. He has only run four races here and has finished in the top seven in his last three. Ryan could be one of the surprises of the playoffs because he has been so close to winning races all year and if those wins start coming now he will have a shot to win the championship this year.

Joey Logano: The third Penske driver to be mentioned by me, Joey has five straight top ten finishes here with three of those starts coming on the front row. In ten starts at this track Joey has never finished worse than twenty-third and has only failed to complete one lap in those ten races. Anyone who can stay on the lead lap in nine out of ten races anywhere and only lose one lap has to be on your radar.

Erik Jones: Erik has really come on in the second half of the season after winning at Daytona in July. This is his type of track and in his two starts at Las Vegas he has come away with a fifteenth and an eighth place finish. I think he improves on those numbers this week and will finish somewhere in the top ten again and could possibly come away with another top five finish. He is another driver who could be a surprise during the next ten races.

Kyle Larson: Kyle has finished in the top three in his last two starts at this track. Everyone thought he would run up high all year long and he has surprised us by running down low more often than not. I think learning to do that earlier this season can only help him in the playoffs when he will need to search around the track to find speed to keep himself in the mix throughout the races.

Aric Almirola: He has come close a number of times only to have something unfortunate happen to him late in races. Yet, he has shown that he has the same speed as the rest of the Stewart-Haas drivers and the intermediate tracks are where he is usually at his best. He has only finished in the top ten here once in ten starts, but that finish came this spring. I am throwing out those stats and picking him as my dark horse this week.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie hasn’t shown us much of anything this season. He hasn’t won a race or even a stage as we enter the playoffs and that puts his at a major disadvantage. Can he and Chad Knaus find that magic once again and can they find enough to get them to Miami? Doubtful in my opinion. However, he has only finished outside of the top sixteen once in his last nine starts here. He has led laps in six of his last seven starts here and won three straight at this track from 2005-2007. He needs to have a great finish right off the bat if he has any inkling of making noise this year.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Kevin Harvick
• Brad Keselowski

Driver Group Game Group B

• Ryan Blaney
• Erik Jones
• Aric Almirola
• Austin Dillon

Driver Group Game Group C

• Alex Bowman
• Chris Buescher

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Brad Keselowski
3. Kyle Busch
4. Martin Truex Jr.
5. Ryan Blaney

Dark Horse: Aric Almirola

Stay Away From: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Big 18: Ryan Blaney

After Kurt Busch broke into the winners circle for the first time this season the series took a week off and now they are back with two races to go before the start of the playoffs. During these two races we will answer some questions. Will someone not in the top sixteen in points win one of these races? Will the Big Three continue to dominate? Will someone not currently in the top sixteen make their way into the playoffs by gaining enough points to move into that top sixteen in these final two races. Stay tuned!

BOJANGLES’ SOUTHERN 500

This week the race will be held at the Darlington Raceway also known as “The Lady in Black” and “The Track Too Tough to Tame”. The track has a unique configuration compared to other tracks on the circuit in that it is shaped more like an egg than an oval. This is the reason for the famed “Darlington Stripe” that occurs when a driver comes off the corner and the wall is closer than he thinks. This is the reason I heard Darrell Waltrip on say when talking about the Lady in Black something like she ain’t no lady.

Kevin Harvick: I am picking Kevin to win his eighth race of the season and pick up some more valuable playoff points. He has sat on the pole the last two years here and has one win, four top five and five top ten finishes here in his last five races. He has also led almost five-hundred laps here in the four races he has run while at Stewart-Haas and we have seen how good those teams are this year with 10 victories among those drivers.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin won this race two years ago and has finished in the top ten here in his last three starts. After getting wrecked while in second place at Bristol, this team will be chomping at the bit to get back on the track and try to get into victory lane for the fifth time this season. I figure he will finish somewhere in the top five once again this weekend and have a shot at winning late in the race.

Denny Hamlin: I keep thinking Denny is going to come out and dominate a race, but he fails to do that. He sat on the pole in two of the last three races, but was never really a contender in either of those races. He won this race last season and has finished in the top six in seven of his last eight starts here. The stats say I should be picking Denny to win this weekend, but something is still a bit off with this team.

Matt Kenseth: I had Trevor Bayne on my roster at Bristol and I had a reader tell me there is no reason at all to do that and then he finished eleventh. Not bad for someone I had no reason what so ever to even have him on my roster. By the way, I did start him too :). So, I am going to go out on a limb and hope lightning strikes twice this week. Granted, the Roush teams haven’t shown the speed they need on this type of track, but Matt has one win and has finished in the top six in five of his last six starts here. Good enough reason for me to have him on my roster.

Erik Jones: Erik has been very hot since winning at Daytona in July. In his only start at Darlington he finished fifth. I think he runs well here once again this week and if everything falls into place for him he could find himself in contention late in the race. I don’t know if he has enough experience to beat Harvick, but it seems that the young guns are pretty calm when they are under pressure.

Kyle Larson: Kyle is another driver I thought would have a win by this point of the season when he was in contention for wins early this season, but this team has floundered a bit since then. I don’t know for sure, but maybe his focus isn’t where it really needs to be. He missed driver introductions at Kentucky because he was talking with some friends and that is a rookie mistake. Now, he has 169-laps in his last two starts at Darlington and has three top ten finished in his four races there. I think he will be fine once again this weekend and will be focused after a week off.

Ryan Newman: Ryan is one of those drivers I might have on my roster, but I am hesitant to start him because he doesn’t seem to be very good in practice and then he slowly gets his car better during the race and comes away with a good finish. This is one of those weeks where he will be on my roster. He has seven top ten finishes in his last nine starts here and has only failed to finish one lap in all of those races combined. Maybe it’s the engineer in him that figures out this egg shaped track that helps them make the right changes to the car.

Kyle Busch: Let’s not forget about Kyle, who wrecked on the second lap at Bristol and came back after repairs with a very damaged car and still had one of the fastest cars on the track. Kyle has always been very good at Darlington. He has finished in the top eleven in nine of his last ten starts and led laps in nine of those starts too. He might complain that his car is junk and be mad at other drivers, but one thing for sure is that no matter what adversity he sees during a race he is going to give you everything he has.

Jimmie Johnson: Right now it doesn’t look like this team will really contend for a title this year. Jimmie has been more down than up from week to week this season and it is hard to have him on your roster any week. He has run better on the shorter tracks, but it doesn’t seem like he has the speed to compete on the intermediate tracks. Well, he leads all active drivers with three wins here, but then again he hasn’t finished in the top ten in his last three races at this track. I have to go on the safe side and say Jimmie is going to be so so once again this week.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is another driver I thought would have at least one win by now. They can be running up front early in a race and then it seems like they know they can’t beat the big three unless they make some drastic changes to the car and then they fall back. I guess that’s not a bad strategy when you are in the top sixteen in points and will make the playoffs anyway. Playoff points are much more important and you get those by winning stages and races, not by finishing second. Brad has led over 250-laps in his last four starts here.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DARLINGTON RACEWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Kevin Harvick
• Denny Hamlin

Driver Group Game Group B

• Erik Jones
• Ryan Newman
• Matt Kenseth
• Austin Dillon

Driver Group Game Group C

• Chris Buescher
• William Byron

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DARLINGTON RACEWAY

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Dwnny Hamlin
3. Kyle Busch
4. Martin Truex Jr.
5. Kyle Larson

Dark Horse: Austin Dillon

Stay Away From: Clint Bowyer

Big 18: Ryan Newman

Kevin Harvick wins his seventh race of the season and takes the playoff points lead by winning both stages and the race at Michigan this past weekend. Harvick pretty much dominated the race once again as he led more than half of the laps in the race and didn’t really have anyone challenge him throughout. Kyle Busch finished third leading the third most laps and Martin Truex Jr. finished fourteenth after leading the second most laps. This just showed me the “Big Three” are still the drivers to beat if you want to win a championship this year.

Right now they are doing nothing other than trying to win stages and the races to bank as many playoff points as they can get. They are all going to be tough to knock out of any round with the playoff points they have already accumulated with Harvick having 40, Busch having 35, and Truex with 27. The next closest to these three is Clint Bowyer with only 10 playoff points. The last four in right now have a combined total of 1 playoff point between them. Hard for them to make up a lot of points in only three races in each round if the playoffs.

BASS PRO SHOPS NRA NIGHT RACE

Now there are only three races left before the playoffs start. This week the series heads back to the Bristol Motor Speedway for the running if the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. This week we are going to see why they call this the last great coliseum when they start racing under the lights on Saturday night. You are going to see some great paint schemes, and even better than that some great and fun racing to watch.

It is go time for the teams and drivers who are trying to win a race just to make it into the playoffs. Those who are just below and just above the cut line are going to be doing everything they can to finish as close to the front as they can, everyone is going to be trying to win the race to put themselves into the playoffs. Those already in are going to be racing for playoff points. Those who aren’t close to the top sixteen in points know they have to win to get in. There is going to be a lot of rumbling in Thunder Valley this weekend.

Kyle Busch: I am picking Kyle to match Kevin with his seventh win of the season this weekend at Bristol. Kyle has won the last two races here and in his last six starts he has led 721 laps. Nine of his last eleven starting positions were in the top ten also. This tells me that Kyle starts towards the front and stays towards the front to come away with these types of numbers.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has three top five and six top ten finishes in his last six starts here including a win in this race two years ago. It is hard to keep him off your roster any weekend, but I have to save some starts for him and therefore I will not have him on my roster this week despite how well he has run here in those last six races. He has also failed to qualify in the top four in those last six starts, so I am not expecting him to garner me any qualifying points this week.

Kyle Larson: Kyle finished second to Busch this spring and he has led 472 laps over his last three Bristol races and has finished in the top ten in all of those races. He seems to have hit a bit of a spell where he hasn’t been competing for wins lately and finished seventeenth at Michigan last weekend where he was expecting to challenge for the win. Tough call on whether or not I should put him on my roster this weekend.

Joey Logano: Joey won back to back fall races here during the 2014 and 2015 seasons. He has also finished in the top ten in five of his last six fall races here. Then again he has finished in the top ten here in his last three spring races too. That gives me some confidence in him coming into this weekend. He hasn’t shown that he can compete on the larger tracks, but he is awfully good here.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has one win at this track and has finished third here in each of his last three fall races. This team sat on the pole the last two weeks, but couldn’t come away with a win, nor did they even really compete for a win in those races. He runs well here, but scares me with the pit road penalties he collects. Those will ruin your night at Bristol in a hurry.

Jimmie Johnson: Once again they didn’t show me anything last week on an intermediate track. This week I think things could be different. This is the type of track where Jimmie could break his winless streak. He has five top five finishes in his last eight starts here. Granted he only led laps in one of those races, but this is go time and he needs to pick up a win and some playoff points before the playoffs begin.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: For some reason, Ricky runs pretty well here. He has two runner-up finishes and six top ten finishes in his eleven career starts at Bristol. I think he can come away with another top ten finish here, but then I do have some concerns with him. He doesn’t have a lot of friends from the race at Daytona and they all remember that and won’t cut him any slack this weekend. If he is in the way he gets moved, so I’m not so sure about starting him this week.

Kurt Busch: Kurt won five of his first eleven starts at Bristol. His last win came back in the 2006 season. Since that time he has only finished in the top five five times and that covers twenty-four races. Then again, three of those top five finishes have come in his last eight races. It seems like this race is always feast or famine for Kurt. He has only finished on the lead lap here in four of his last eleven starts. He is another driver I don’t know if I should take a chance on this week.

Ryan Newman: The RCR teams both looked strong last week at Michigan and Ryan always seems to run well here. He has finished in the top ten in five of his last seven starts and has finished on the lead lap here in eight of his last nine races. You hardly ever here much about him during the races, but he quietly seems to get the job done when he has the right setup. I think he is well worth having on your team this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr.: The last of the “Big Three” to talk about this week. This is my stay away from driver this weekend. In twenty-five starts at this track, Martin only has three top ten finishes. He has only finished on the lead lap in two of his last ten starts at Bristol. I don’t know what it is about this track, but it is one of the few Martin hasn’t figured out yet. I’m sure he will continue to improve here during his career, but I’m not comfortable having him on my team this weekend.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Kyle Busch
• Joey Logano

Driver Group Game Group B

• Ryan Newman
• Jamie McMurray
• Trevor Bayne
• Clint Bowyer

Driver Group Game Group C

• Alex Bowman
• Darrell Wallace Jr.

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY

1. Kyle Busch
2. Kevin Harvick
3. Joey Logano
4. Kyle Larson
5. Jimmie Johnson

Dark Horse: Ryan Newman

Stay Away From: Martin Truex Jr.

Big 18: Jimmie Johnson