Fantasy NASCAR Blog

The second round of the playoffs are history and we are now down to eight drivers with a chance to win this year’s championship. Those eliminated this week were Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson, and Alex Bowman. All four of the Stewart-Haas drivers advance while Chase Elliott picked up his third win of the season and added another 5 playoff points to his stats.

FIRST DATA 500

This week the series heads back to the Martinsville Speedway for the running of the First Data 500. Martinsville is the shortest track on the circuit at .526 miles and has very minimal banking. Passing is tough to do here and the chrome horn often comes into play. There are two short tracks on the schedule for the third round of the playoffs which will make it tough on any driver who struggles on this type of track.

Once again the points will be reset for this round which will put Kyle Busch in first place one point ahead of Kevin Harvick and they will be followed by Martin Truex Jr. Then comes Chase Elliott, Clint Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Joey Logano, and Aric Almirola. Of these drivers I think Aric might be the one with the highest hill to climb as he only has six playoff points and hasn’t been the most consistent on the short tracks during his career.

Kyle Busch: I think Kyle is going to be the winner this week and qualify himself for the championship race. He has two wins, two runner-up finishes and six top five finishes in his last six starts at this track. A win here takes all of the pressure off of him until the final race of the season as he looks for his second championship. He will also be able to focus more on that final race without having to worry about what happens in the two races that lead up to the championship race.

Clint Bowyer: Clint won the race here this spring and hasn’t finished outside of the top ten here since joining Stewart-Haas last year. He had a worrisome day at Kansas last week as he was close to the cutoff line for most of the race, but prevailed in the end. He knows that he has a lot of points to make up on those ahead of him, but a win moves him into the championship race.

Brad Keselowski: I know Brad is disappointed that he didn’t qualify for this round of the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean he is giving up on the season. Brad has finished in the top five in four of his last five starts at Martinsville and could throw a wrench into the playoff hopes of other drivers by stealing a win away from one of them this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin has two straight top five finishes here and doesn’t want to get in a situation where he is trying to make the final race on points even though he has a nice lead over five of the other drivers. Anyone below him who wins a race makes those points mean a little less and he would love to make it to the championship race in the last year for Furniture Row Racing.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin finished fifth in his last two starts at this track, but hasn’t been real consistent at this track throughout his career. He would love to win a race early in this round or at least finish in the top five once again so he doesn’t have the pressure of trying to win at Phoenix to make the championship race. I think there are better options for your fantasy team this week.

Joey Logano: Joey has started in the top six here in his last eleven races. He has four top five and six top ten finishes in his last nine starts here, but is still looking for his first win here. He might be someone to put on your roster for qualifying points and could be a surprise winner this week. If you are looking to have someone on your team that could possibly help you make a move in your league, Joey is that driver.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has won nine times at this track and this is the type of track where speed isn’t a big factor. You need a car that handles more than you need speed here and that might just be the ticket to him breaking into the win column. I think he is going to finish in the top five and he could possibly pick up his first win of the season this weekend.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has five wins here himself and could be another surprise driver. The last few times he has been here he hasn’t had the setup he needs and is always wheel hopping going into the corners which takes him right out of contention. He is another driver you might consider if you are trying to make up ground in your league. He has led laps here in seven of his last eight starts which means he does run up front for a while.

Chase Elliott: Let’s not forget about the hottest driver on the track right now. Chase’s best finish here was a third last spring. He returned here last fall and led 123 laps before having some trouble and finishing a lap down in twenty-seventh place. Then he came back this spring and finished ninth in that race, so I think he is getting better and better here each time out.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has two wins at Martinsville in his career, but the last of those came nine races ago and he hasn’t finished in the top ten since. As a matter of fact, his win in 2014 was his last top ten finish here in his last twenty-five starts. He is my stay away from driver this weekend. If he pushes too hard this week he might find himself in a must win situation.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Kyle Busch
• Brad Keselowski

Driver Group Game Group B

• Clint Bowyer
• Chase Elliott
• Ryan Newman
• Jamie McMurray

Driver Group Game Group C

• William Byron
• Chris Buescher

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY

1. Kyle Busch
2. Brad Keselowski
3. Clint Bowyer
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Jimmie Johnson

Dark Horse: Joey Logano

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Big 18: Clint Bowyer

The mayhem at Talladega is over and Aric Almirola has prevailed and moved himself to the third round of the playoffs. Okay, maybe there wasn’t a lot of mayhem, but the end sure turned out different than it was looking before the late race caution came out. The only thing that stopped all of the Stewart-Haas and Penske Ford’s from finishing in the top ten was running out of fuel. So, in other words, the Ford’s still have the dominant speed on the track.

RACE NAME ALL CAPS

This week the series heads to the Kansas Speedway for the final leg of the second round of the playoffs. We know that Almirola and Chase Elliott are already locked in and Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch are virtual locks also. In fact, Martin Truex Jr. is in eighth place right now in the cutoff position and he has an eighteen point lead over Brad Keselowski. If we don’t get a new winner who is outside the top eight in points they will almost need someone ahead of them to have some type of problem this week to pass them. Stage points will be at a premium in this race for that reason.

Now, Kansas Speedway is another of the mile and a half tracks on the circuit that are very important to those looking to win a championship. I’m guessing the temperatures will be nice and cool this weekend which will help the drivers with the grip on the track and we will see some fast racing. If I’m right, that bodes well for the Big Three once again this weekend and those will be the drivers we will want to focus on.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin won both races here last year and finished second in the spring race this year. I look for him to qualify well and run up front throughout the race and make sure that he is in position to go for the win late in the race and secure his spot in the third round. Like I said earlier, his biggest competition will be Harvick and Busch.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won the race here this spring and doesn’t need to win this race to move on. Yet, he will do whatever he can to gain any playoff points he can carry on to the next round. He has finished in the top three here seven times in his last ten starts and led laps in nine of those ten starts. This team will play it smart like they always do and Kevin will be patient, but could dominate here once again.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has finished in the top five in five of his last seven starts here and in the top ten in all of those starts. The only two driver who have led more laps here in the last five races are Truex and Harvick. I think you need to look at the starts you have left with these three drivers and then put two of them on your roster and see how they do in practice before deciding which of them to start.

Ryan Blaney: Ryan is 22 points outside the top eight right now and might just have to win this race to move to the third round and this is the type of track where he could get that win. He has finished in the top five in three of his last five starts here and we have seen how fast the Ford drivers have been all year. The only thing I’m not sure about is if he will have the patience he needs to not make dangerous moves early in the race knowing he might have to win.

Kyle Larson: Kyle is another driver who might need to win here this week to move on. Right now he is 26 points out of the top eight in the standings. However, this is a track where he has been very good lately and he could get the win he needs to move on. He hasn’t been really great here with only three top ten finishes in his nine starts, but he did lead 101 laps and finished fourth here this spring.

Brad Keselowski: Brad finds himself eighteen points out of making the third round and knows that a win gets him in. The thing he has going for him is how well he has been running on this type of track over the past couple of months. These drivers who know they might need to win to get in are the ones who will put the pressure on the drivers in the seventh and eighth spots in the standings right now.

Kurt Busch: With a thirty point lead right now over the ninth place driver Kurt looks to be in a pretty good spot right now. I’m sure he is very disappointed right now after running out of gas as he was leading the race at Talladega last weekend, but I also think he know that he should have a good car once again this weekend. He finished second in the race last season and has five top ten finishes in his last seven starts here.

Clint Bowyer: Clint might be the driver currently in the top eight in the standings that could have some trouble here this week. He currently sits seventh with a twenty-one point lead over the ninth place driver. The problem is that Clint hasn’t been very good at Kansas in his career and that really hurts seeing this is his home track. In fact he has only finished in the top ten once in his last ten starts here.

Joey Logano: Joey has come away with seven top five finishes in his last ten starts here including a third place finish this spring. He is sitting 39 points above the cut line and I think he would be someone to consider having on your team and starting if you need to make up some ground in your league. If you are looking to stay towards the top of your league I would still go with one of the Big Three.

Chase Elliott: Chase is already in so he has nothing to lose taking chances to get another win and add to his playoff point total. He hasn’t been great here in his five races, but he did finish fourth in this race last year. Watch your starts for him and use make sure you have at least one start left for him to use sometime after this weekend.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR KANSAS SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Martin Truex Jr.
• Kevin Harvick

Driver Group Game Group B

• Ryan Blaney
• Kurt Busch
• Aric Almirola
• Erik Jones

Driver Group Game Group C

• Alex Bowman
• Michael McDowell

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT KANSAS SPEEDWAY

1. Martin Truex Jr.
2. Kevin Harvick
3. Kyle Busch
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Joey Logano

Dark Horse: Alex Bowman

Stay Away From: Clint Bowyer

Big 18: Aric Almirola

Congratulations to Chase Elliott who won the race at Dover for his second win of the season. The win also automatically moves him to the third round of the playoffs. Kevin Harvick had the dominant car for most of the race once again as he led 286 laps in the race, but found himself a lap down and by the time he got back on the lead lap he didn’t have enough time to get all the way back to the front of the field.

1000BULBS.COM 500

The win was huge as the drivers all head to the Talladega Superspeedway this week for the running of the 1000Bulbs.com 500. This is the wildcard race of the second round as anyone can win this race and anything can happen to any driver at any point of this race. The potential for a big wreck that can take out half of the field because of the pack racing at a restrictor plate track is almost guaranteed to happen at least once during these races.

Brad Keselowski: I am going to pick Brad to win the race this weekend and get himself into the third round. Penske Racing has won four of the last five races at this track and like we said all year long, the Ford’s seem to have a little more going for them speed wise this year and they have shown it on this type of track. Brad and his teammates always seem to be able to find each other and work well together here.

Joey Logano: If Brad is going to win he will probably be teamed up in the draft with Joey most of the day. Joey is the other Penske driver who has won two of the last five races at this track. In fact, both Brad and Joey have very similar stats here over the past five races each leading right around 190 laps in those races and coming away with two wins. If they can stick together for most of the race I think they have the best chance to go to victory lane again.

Aric Almirola: Aric has four straight top ten finishes here and almost won at Daytona earlier this season. This team has really been coming on lately and might be able to put a full race together and get themselves into the third round of the playoffs. They won’t necessarily need to win, but they can’t have a disastrous finish here this week either if they want to move back into the top eight in the standings.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has had the best average finish out of all drivers over the past five races here. In fact, he finished second here in April and has finished in the top ten in four of his last five starts here too. He is a teammate of Aric Almirola and they are both in Ford’s also. I am going to stick with my strategy of having Ford drivers on my team again this week. One word of cation though. Don’t waste a start on any driver you don’t have a lot of starts left with because of the potential for accidents this week.

Denny Hamlin: Denny had a good run last weekend finally and he has led laps at Talladega in each of his last nine races there. He has always run well on the restrictor plate tracks in his career and if he can avoid mistakes on pit road this week where he might find himself out of the draft he should be a contender late in the race if he can find a drafting partner he trusts.

Chase Elliott: Chase has started inside of the top ten in each of his five career starts at this track. He also seems to be able to keep his car up front and lead laps in most of the races he runs here, but always seems to get caught up in a wreck or either isn’t sure when to make a move late in the race or no one wants to go with him when he tries to make that move. I think that was because some weren’t sure they wanted to trust him, but after his win last week he has shown he has what it takes to win in the series and more drivers will believe he is the person to follow.

Kyle Busch: Kyle seems to always have a good handling car here, but he either lacks patience or gets caught up in a wreck of someone else’s making. He is going to have to try and avoid something that will knock him out of this race. He has enough points to get into the next round if he plays it smart. Winning here isn’t mandatory for him, but staying in the race and finishing on the lead lap is.

Kevin Harvick: Back to another Ford driver who should have a fast car. Most of the time you won’t hear much about Kevin early in the race as he just rides around and tries to figure out what adjustments they might want to make to get their car handing the way they want for late in the race. He knows he has the speed to go from the back to the front in a hurry and has the patience to wait. It also seems like when things are going bad in front of him he usually finds a way to get through the mayhem early on.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Ricky has been fast at all of the restrictor plate tracks for the past few seasons. However, he didn’t make any friends the last restrictor plate race at Daytona when he was responsible for starting two big wrecks. I don’t think a lot or drivers are going to cut him any slack this week and might just knock him out of the way to get him off the track. So, no matter how good he has been lately, he is my stay away from driver this week.

Ryan Blaney: There is no reason the Ryan shouldn’t have a great car once again this weekend. It just seems like he doesn’t have enough patience at these types of tracks yet. He can have a very fast car, but if he loses the lead he tries too hard to get it back right away and makes some very daring moves to try and get it back. He needs to leard a little more patience and he will win races on these types of tracks.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR INSERT TRACK NAME

Driver Group Game Group A

• Brad Keselowski
• Joey Logano

Driver Group Game Group B

• Paul Menard
• Trevor Bayne
• Ryan Blaney
• Austin Dillon

Driver Group Game Group C

• David Ragan
• Michael McDowell

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT INSERT TRACK NAME

1. Brad Keselowski
2. Joey Logano
3. Aric Almirola
4. Kurt Busch
5. Ryan Blaney

Dark Horse: Paul Menard

Stay Away From: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Big 18: Paul Menard

The first round of the playoffs are in the book and Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, Austin Dillon, and Erik Jomes were eliminated with Johnson eliminating himself by going into the final chicayne as he was trying to pass Martin Truex Jr. for the win. If he would have been happy to finish second he would still be in contention, but I guess that isn’t how he wants to win championships, by backing his way in.

GANDER OUTDOORS 400

The second round of the playoffs will start at the Dover International Speedway, otherwise known as The Monster Mile. Just as this name suggests, it is a one-mile track that has a lot of banking in the corners which makes for some fast laps and multiple racing grooves. This is one of my favorite tracks on the circuit, because you normally see some great racing here.

Kevin Harvick: I am going to go with Kevin to win the first race of the second round and get himself qualified for the third round. He won the race here in May when he led over two-hundred laps in that race. He has been fast all season and this is the time to get himself back on track and back to the win column.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has three career wins here and has finished in the top two in his last three fall races at Dover. He also has finished in the top five in twelve of his twenty-seven starts at this track. I still think it is going to be difficult to knock out the top three in this round no matter if they win or not, but they don’t want to be taking that chance.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin has two wins at this track and is on a streak of four straight top five finishes here. In fact he hasn’t finished worse than eleventh in his last nine races at Dover. I really think we’re going to see each of the Big Three finish in the top five once again this weekend.

Chase Elliott: Chase is still very much in contention for the championship. This is one of his best tracks in the whole series. He has only run five races here, but in those five races he has four top five finishes and his worst finish here was a twelfth place finish which he pulled off earlier this year before they found some more speed, so I look for him to improve on that finishing position this weekend.

Kyle Larson: Kyle had one of the best if not the best car last week on the Roval at Charlotte before he was involved in a wreck on a late race restart. After that he needed help to advance and he got that help and now he needs to see if he can capitalize on the gift. In his nine starts at Dover he has seven top ten finishes and only one of those was outside the top eleven.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has been the hottest driver over the past month or so and could very easily have won the race last weekend in Charlotte. In his last five starts at Dover, Brad has finished in the top ten four times. A win in the first race of this round would be huge for this team by propelling them into the third round of the playoffs.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has an astounding eleven wins at this track in thirty-three starts. He is no longer in the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t want to win the rest of the races this year. I don’t know if they have found the speed they need yet or if they are going to try some different things with their setups as they prepare for next season, but you can’t count Jimmie out at this track.

Clint Bowyer: Clint finished second in the spring race here and has finished in the top ten fourteen times in his twenty-five starts here. He hasn’t always been on one of the top funded teams for his entire career, so that makes those stats a little more impressive. He hasn’t necessarily been running at his most consistent lately, but it only takes one win to make it to the next round.

Daniel Suarez: Once again, Daniel doesn’t have a lot of starts at Dover. In fact he only has three starts here, but in those three starts he has always finished in the top ten and started in the top ten. I thought he would run a little more consistently on the short flat tracks this season and he never really did much on those, but this might be the place where he shows us what he has.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has four top ten finishes in his last five starts here, but I’m not sure if he has what it takes at this point. Almost every week I thought he had a chance to win a race he never really ran well at all even if he qualified well and practiced well. I don’t think this team knows what they need to do with their adjustments as the race goes on and that takes them out of contention early in races.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Kevin Harvick
• Kyle Busch

Driver Group Game Group B

• Chase Elliott
• Clint Bowyer
• Aric Almirola
• Daniel Suarez

Driver Group Game Group C

• William Byron
• Chris Buescher

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Kyle Busch
3. Martin Truex Jr.
4. Chase Elliott
5. Kyle Larson

Dark Horse: Daniel Suarez

Stay Away From: Ryan Blaney

Big 18: Chase Elliott

Once again I have to write this before the second race as I will be out of internet range again early next week. I want to apologize to those of you who submit questions to me while I am away that I can’t answer for you. Hopefully I can make it home early enough next week to help you all out. I should be available off and on again for the rest of the season to try and hand out any advice you might need during the week, but I know there will be some weekends where I am not going to be able to help again in early October.

BANK OF AMERICA ROVAL 400

For the last race of the first stage of the playoffs the series heads to the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course for the running of the Bank of America Roval 400. The Roval is a road course that has never been used in a NASCAR race until this weekend. There was testing done by the drivers, so they at least have seen the course and been able to make some laps on it. The thing is no one knows what to expect under race conditions. This is going to be a 109-lap race on a 2.28 mile track which comes out to about 400 kilometers.

I think the thing to do here is go with those who have always performed well on the road course tracks and probably lean towards those who have more patience as they will learn as they go and the only way to learn is to make sure you stay on the track and keep your car in one piece.

Kyle Busch: I am going to contradict myself a little bit here and say Kyle wins the race this weekend. He might not have the most patience of the drivers, but he is by far the most consistent driver when it comes to racing on the road courses. With four wins, ten top five and eighteen top ten finishes in his twenty-eight starts he has shown that he can get the job done on both of the tracks that he has run on in the Monster Energy Cup Series.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin has won two of the last six road course races and could have possible won a couple more of them. This includes both of his wins and a runner-up finish in his last three road course starts. Martin is also one of the more patient drivers on the track and has a great crew chief that knows how to settle him down if he does get excited. I think he could come away with another top five finish here this week.

Denny Hamlin: Denny only has one win at this type of track and that came in the last three years as he was on a four race streak of finishing in the top five at the road course tracks. This team is hit and miss this season, but I still think they can come away with a win yet this year. It might not be a sure thing this weekend, but I think he could be another top five driver.

AJ Allmendinger: AJ knows how to drive on these tracks, but his finishing position doesn’t always show that. I think that if he can stay patient and keep his car on the track he will have a shot here this week. There could be a lot of drivers who are pushing too hard on a track they know nothing about that are going to get in big trouble and take themselves out of the race which means there won’t be quite so much competition.

Kurt Busch: Another driver that needs to have some patience early and he could be a contender at the end. Kurt has not finished worse than twelfth in his last twelve road course starts. Those are phenomenal numbers when you consider any little mistake can cost you any number of positions and the wear and tear on a car as it hops around all over the track. He is another driver you will want on your team this weekend.

Clint Bowyer: Clint has three top five finishes in his four starts at this type of track since joining Stewart-Haas Racing last season. Clint likes to beat and bang with the rest of the drivers on these tracks and usually comes out not too much worse for wear. He seems to know how to position his car and where the best places to pass on these tracks are and takes advantage of that knowledge.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has finished in the top ten in seven of his last nine road course starts including a win and a runner-up finish in his last two Sonoma starts. Seeing I haven’t seen a race at this track, I don’t know if it conforms closer to Sonoma or Watkins Glen, but I have a sneaking suspicion that it is going to be its own unique configuration. Yet, as good as he has been all season, I think he will fair well here this weekend too.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is still looking for his first career win at a road course, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t run well at these tracks. He is also another one of those drivers who will trade paint all during the race, get beat, and then say something to the effect of how much fun he had and praise the other drivers who finished better than him. That is the right attitude to have when you are going into the unknown.

Chase Elliott: Let’s not forget that Chase won his first ever Cup race at Watkins Glen earlier this year. He has only run six road course races in this series and came away with three top ten finishes in his last four starts including that win. It seems he really likes to run on this type of track and learns a little more every time he goes out there. Now that he has one win, others could easily follow on the road courses.

Joey Logano: Joey is another of those drivers who always seems to have a pretty good car at these tracks and then runs into some type of problem that takes him out of contention. He is someone you might want to take a chance on this weekend because he does know how to get around these tracks and he has the same amount of experience as the rest of the field at this track.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY ROVAL

Driver Group Game Group A

• Kyle Busch
• Martin Truex Jr.

Driver Group Game Group B

• Clint Bowyer
• Kurt Busch
• AJ Allmendinger
• Ryan Newman

Driver Group Game Group C

• Michael McDowell
• David Ragan

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY ROVAL

1. Kyle Busch
2. Martin Truex Jr.
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Kurt Busch
5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Daniel Suarez

Stay Away From: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Big 18: Kurt Busch