Fantasy NASCAR Blog

Congratulations to Joey Logano who is the first driver to qualify for the championship race by virtue of his win at Kansas last weekend. Kurt Busch took the biggest hit as he was already in eighth place in the standings and lost an engine early on in the race and finished a disappointing thirty-eighth. He will almost surely need to win one of the next two races to qualify for the championship now.

AUTOTRADER ECHOPARK AUTOMOTIVE 500

This week the series heads to the Texas Motor Speedway for the running of the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500. This track will be a bit like Kansas and we should see the drivers who were fast at Kansas come with cars capable of winning this week.

Kevin Harvick: Once again I have to pick Kevin to win this weekend. He was close last week at an intermediate track and he has been phenomenally good at Texas lately. In fact he has finished in the top ten here in each of his last twelve starts which includes three wins, three runner up finishes, and nine top five’s. He should have another great run this week.

Joey Logano: Last week’s winner should also come to the track with a fast good handling car. He has been very good here himself during his career, finishing in the top five in six of his last nine starts with only one of those finishes being worse than tenth. He has nothing to lose and will go all out to win another race and get ready for the championship.

Erik Jones: Erik has been running quite well lately and has finished in the top ten in his last six starts at Texas. If he hasn’t already signed a contract for next year he is doing a heck of a job showing other owners that he can get the job done. I think he’s running better because there isn’t any pressure on him right now.

Kurt Busch: We already said that Kurt will most likely have to win one of the next two races to make it to the final weekend. The good news for him is that he has finished in the top ten at Texas in nine of his last ten starts there. The bad news is that none of those have been top fives and anything less than a win isn’t going to cut it.

Ryan Blaney: Ryan ran much better this past weekend than he has in recent weeks and he has been very good at Texas lately with five top ten finishes in his last six races. This team is working towards next season, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t going to try and win some races and they have shown they have the speed to get it done on this type of track all season long.

Martin Truex Jr.: I’ve been waiting for Martin to come out and dominate one of these races on the intermediate tracks and this is the last one of the season. He has finished in the top ten in eight of his last eleven starts at this track and we know he could break into the win column at any time. With Logano winning last week, I would think there might be a little added pressure on this team now seeing there will be one less driver getting in on points.

Denny Hamlin: Denny was in contention early in last week’s race and then brushed the wall in the final stage which took him right back out of contention. He won here last spring, but his consistency isn’t very good here with only three top ten finishes in his last eleven starts. He just needs to avoid a major incident that would knock him out of a race and he won’t head into Martinsville needing to win.

Aric Almirola: This is probably the last good chance Aric has to win a race the rest of the season. He hasn’t been very good on the short tracks so he needs to do it here where he has four straight top ten finishes. If you have a start left for him this is the week to use it.

Chase Elliott: Chase showed flashes of how he won multiple races on this type of track earlier this season last week at Kansas and I’m sure this team will work on getting back to there once again this weekend. He finished in the top ten in five of his first six races here, but hasn’t had a top ten finish in his last three starts.

Brad Keselowski: Brad hasn’t really had the consistency at Texas one would want to see when setting their fantasy lineups. He has five top five and nine top ten finishes in his twenty-four career starts here and that just isn’t good enough to make us want to use him this weekend. Not saying that he can’t win, but the odds aren’t really in his favor this week.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Kevin Harvick
• Joey Logano

Driver Group Game Group B

• Erik Jones
• Aric Almirola
• Matt DiBenedetto
• Alex Bowman

Driver Group Game Group C

• Cole Custer
• Tyler Reddick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Joey Logano
3. Martin Truex Jr.
4. Chase Elliott
5. Kurt Busch

Dark Horse: Alex Bowman

Stay Away From: Matt Kenseth

Big 18: Matt DiBenedetto

Now there are only four races and eight drivers left to decide this year’s champion. There really wasn’t any excitement in last week’s race as the top eight remained in the top eight and the bottom four remained there and were eliminated from the playoffs.

HOLLYWOOD CASINO 400

This week the series heads to the Kansas Speedway for the running of the Hollywood Casino 400. This is the first of back to back intermediate tracks the drivers will race at in the third round of the playoffs. So, two straight mile and a half tracks to open up this round followed by a short track in the elimination race.

Kevin Harvick: I have to go with Kevin to win this week and lock himself into the championship race without having to worry about points. He has won two of the last eight races run here and hasn’t finished worse than sixteenth in his last twenty starts at this track. He has been the most consistent driver no matter what type of track the series has run on this season.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin has been close for a while now and he knows it’s time to step up his game a little bit. He has won two of the last seven races at this track and has also finished in the top six in six of those races. No one wants to try and point their way into the championship race, so you’re going to see some more aggressive driving now.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has won the last two races here including this July. He also has finished in the top five in four of his last six starts here. He has been almost as consistent as Kevin has this season although he has had a few more ups and downs. I think the first three I mentioned will all make the championship race.

Chase Elliott: Last week’s winner, Chase won this race two years ago and has finished in the top five in four of his last six starts at Kansas. He needs to get back to running on the intermediate tracks like he did in the middle of the season so he can try to pick up another win and lock himself into a chance to win a championship.

Brad Keselowski: Brad won the spring race here last year and finished second to Denny in the July race this year. I think he is going to be a contender once again this week even though he’s hasn’t been the most consistent driver throughout the year. He has won a championship before so he knows what it takes to get the job done.

Kurt Busch: Kurt surprised some people by winning a race in the second round and moving into the third round. He shouldn’t be a surprise contender this week as he has run very well at Kansas in his career. Even though he is still looking for his first win here he has finished in the top ten in eight of his last eleven starts at this track.

Erik Jones: Erik has run better since announcing that he wouldn’t be back with Joe Gibbs Racing next season. He has also been very good at Kansas lately with five straight top ten finished there. Maybe the pressure is off him now and he can just relax and it’s helping his racing. He might already have a deal to drive for another top tier team next season and is just waiting to announce it.

Kyle Busch: I keep waiting for Kyle to break back into the win column and believe that even with his struggles this year he could pull off a win at any time. He has finished in the top five in seven of his last eleven starts. With those kind of stats it’s hard not to believe he can get the job done this week. Maybe like Erik the pressure is off Kyle now that he has been eliminated from the playoffs and he can just concentrate on his racing.

Alex Bowman: A lot of people were surprised to see Alex’s name in the top eight as we head to the third round of the playoffs. He has been improving all year and he has shown he is good at the intermediate tracks. He finished second here last May and this team seems to have figured out how to communicate with each other.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR KANSAS SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Martin Truex Jr.
• Denny Hamlin

Driver Group Game Group B

• Erik Jones
• Kurt Busch
• William Byron
• Austin Dillon

Driver Group Game Group C

• Cole Custer
• Christopher Bell

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT KANSAS SPEEDWAY

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Martin Truex Jr.
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Chase Elliott

Dark Horse: Alex Bowman

Stay Away From: Matt Kenseth

Big 18: Clint Bowyer

Now there is only one race left in the second round of the playoffs and a few of the drivers are in must win situations. They can’t rely on someone ahead of them in the standings getting knocked out into last place and them being able to move on to the third round on points. Aric Almirola is one of those drivers. Kyle Busch could make it on points, but he’s going to have to let it all hang out and just try to win this week’s race.

BANK OF AMERICA ROVAL 400

This week the series heads to the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course, also known as the Roval. This is going to be interesting as some of the playoff drivers are good on this type of track and others hate them with a passion. Let’s get to our analysis.

Chase Elliott: I’m picking Chase to win this race and move into the third round of the playoffs. Chase won this race last year and he also won at the road course in Daytona earlier this year. He has been one of the best the past couple of seasons at all of the road course tracks he has run on and this weekend should be no different. He should have a good handling car that he can drive to the front once again.

Martin Truex Jr.: In his last eight road course starts across the entire series Martin has three wins and six top three finishes. I think he is going to give Chase the most competition this week. At the least he should be able to move into the third round as he has a bit of a comfortable lead in points, but early problems could change that.

Clint Bowyer: Clint has one career road course win and has finished in the top five in five of his last nine road course starts. This includes top five finishes in both of his Charlotte starts. He might just have to win this race to advance, but if things fall his way and he can score points in both stages and come away with another top five finish he might move on that way.

Kyle Busch: Kyle also sits in a position where he might very well have to win this race to advance. He has four road course wins in his career, so we know he can do it. In his last thirteen starts at the different road course tracks, Kyle has six top five and nine top ten finishes. Once again if he finishes in the top five and some other drivers have early problems he could move into the top eight and advance.

Alex Bowman: Alex doesn’t need to win this race. Right now he is in position to advance and just needs to have a good run this week to do it. He has been pretty good on this type of track lately finishing no worse than fourteenth in each of his last seven starts. That includes two top five finishes at this track where they have only run two races.

Denny Hamlin: Denny is already locked in to the next round with his win at Talladega last week. He has always run well on the road course tracks and has finished in the top five in seven of his last eleven starts. He doesn’t need to win, but I’m sure he is going to give it his all. He should be good at Martinsville and Phoenix so you might want to save your starts for him.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has a comfortable cushion heading into this race too. He just needs to stay out of major trouble and have other extraordinary things happen to get knocked out. I don’t see any of that happening to him. He runs well on this type of track and it shows by his ten top ten finishes in his last fourteen road course starts.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has also moved on to the third round of the playoffs and should be very relaxed going into the weekend. He has finished in the top ten in ten of his last fourteen road course starts the same as Kevin. I see him coming away with at least a top fifteen finish once again this weekend as he prepares for the next round of the playoffs.

Ryan Blaney: Ryan has been very good on the road courses in his short career. In fact he has finished in the top ten in six of his last nine road course starts and won the first race run on this track. He isn’t in the playoffs anymore, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t going to do his best to win this week’s race.

Jimmie Johnson: As his career quickly comes to a close, Jimmie would like nothing more than to win one more race. He had a shot at winning here two years ago, but made a mistake and took himself and Martin Truex Jr. out late in that race and it also knocked him out of the playoffs that year. He would really like to redeem himself and go to victory lane this week.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR CHARLOTTE ROVAL

Driver Group Game Group A

• Chase Elliott
• Martin Truex Jr.

Driver Group Game Group B

• Clint Bowyer
• Alex Bowman
• Kurt Busch
• Jimmie Johnson

Driver Group Game Group C

• Michael McDowell
• Ty Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT CHARLOTTE ROVAL

1. Chase Elliott
2. Martin Truex Jr.
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Clint Bowyer
5. Kyle Busch

Dark Horse: Erik Jones

Stay Away From: Austin Dillon

Big 18: Chase Elliott

A huge win for Kurt Busch this past weekend which propels him into the third round of the playoffs. Huge because a restrictor plate race looms in front of the drivers and they all know that anything can happen in the blink of an eye and their season can be virtually over.

YELLAWOOD 500

Yes, this week the series heads to the Talladega Superspeedway for the running of the YellaWood 500. A restrictor plate race that anyone who starts can win. This is where Samson can tame Goliath and any small mistake or over aggressive driving can take out a third of the field or more. No one is safe until the checkered flag waves and all of the cars have come to a standstill.

Aric Almirola: I’m going out on a limb and picking Aric to win this race and shake up the playoffs even more. He’s only twenty-seven points below the cutline at this time, but there are also two other drivers ahead of him that he would have to overtake to make it into the third round on points. He has eight straight top ten finishes with five of those being top five’s. He also won this race two years ago.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Ricky is a wildcard all by himself in these races. He likes to side draft other cars, but sometimes he gets too close and causes some havoc. At other times he makes some very aggressive moves. This is another thing that can get you a win or start a huge wreck fest. He seems to make quite a few drivers mad in these races, but he can come away with a great finish if everything works out.

Joey Logano: Joey won three of the last ten races here and finished in the top five in six of those ten. This team could really use another great finish to give themselves some confidence back. It always seems like the Penske teammates find each other on the track and then they draft well together and that is how they finish so well on a consistent basis here.

Ryan Blaney: Not surprising, Ryan won the last two races here. Not surprising because he is one of the Penske drivers who all work well together. He came away with a top ten finish last week at Las Vegas and maybe they have a little momentum going for them now. He should have another fast car that handles well in the draft once again this week.

Brad Keselowski: Let’s not forget the other Penske driver who will be on the track this weekend. Brad has five career wins at Talladega and that leads all active drivers. Looks like we should have a few of these teammates on our rosters this week. Question is, which ones do we start?

Denny Hamlin: Denny won both of the Daytona races this year, so he should be considered here too. The big question is how aggressive does he want to get? He’s sitting comfortable in the points race and if he stays out of the big wreck he should be able to make the third round on points. I don’t know if it’s in his blood to ride around at the back to stay out of trouble until the end of the race.

Alex Bowman: Interesting stat here. Alex has never finished better than thirty-third in a fall race at Talladega, but he has finished in the top ten in each of his last three spring starts here including a runner up finish last spring. I think this team should break that streak of finishing worse than thirtieth in a fall race this weekend.

Ryan Newman: Ryan finished second here in two of his last six starts. I’m not sure how confident and comfortable he is on these tracks after his horrendous crash at Daytona this year where he was hurt pretty badly and had to miss some races before he healed up enough to come back. Is that still in the back of his mind or can he push past it and make the moves he needs to make to get to the front once again.

Kurt Busch: Last week’s winner really doesn’t have anything to lose this week. Kurt is still looking for his first win at this track even though he always seems to run very well here. In fact, he has scored points in ten of the last fourteen stages. I think he is going to run well again this week and he won’t be afraid to make some aggressive moves late in the race to try and get that elusive win.

Chase Elliott: Chase is only ten points above the cutline, so he can’t afford to get caught up in a big wreck this week. I don’t know what their plan is going to be, but I would think that if they are fast enough to run towards the front of the field they might do just that. If the car isn’t handling well at the beginning of the race you might see them fall to the back and play it safe until the later stages of the race.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Joey Logano
• Brad Keselowski

Driver Group Game Group B

• Aric Almirola
• Alex Bowman
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
• Ryan Newman

Driver Group Game Group C

• Michael McDowell
• Bubba Wallace

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

1. Aric Almirola
2. Joey Logano
3. Ryan Blaney
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Denny Hamlin

Dark Horse: Austin Dillon

Stay Away From: Erik Jones

Big 18: Aric Almirola

The first round of the playoffs is in the books and Cole Custer, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, and Matt DiBenedetto have been eliminated from contention. Kevin Harvick leads the last twelve drivers in the standings and has a comfortable 62 point lead ahead of the cutoff position. I think Denny Hamlin is the only other driver who can relax a little, but one mistake by any driver could cost them a spot in the third round. The second round has a wildcard race at Talladega and then a road course race in Charlotte, so there will be some position swapping coming up.

SOUTH POINT 400

This week the series heads out west to the Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the running of the South Point 400. This will be the race all of the playoff drivers will want to win because no one wants to head to Talladega needing a win or worrying about getting caught up in a big wreck there and then going to a road course which can always be hard on equipment.

This is a mile and a half track with multiple racing grooves. All of the drivers will have chances to work on their cars to get them handling so they have a shot at the win towards the end. Mistakes early in the race might be overcome, but towards the end they will spell disaster.

Martin Truex Jr.: I’m going to go with Martin to win this week. He has won two of the past six races he has run at Las Vegas including winning this race last season. He also has five top five finishes in his last eight starts here. He came close to winning in the first round and know he is going to have to step up his game to guarantee his spot in the third round.

Kevin Harvick: It’s hard not to pick Kevin to win every race at this point of the season and he’s been very good at this track. He has two wins in his last eight starts here and finished second in this race last year. He has also finished first or second in six of the last ten stages run here which tells you he runs up front for the most part all through these races.

Joey Logano: Joey has won the last two spring races here and has finished in the top ten in each of his last nine starts at this track. This team doesn’t seem to be quite where they were earlier in the year, but this could be the track where they get it all put back together again. All in all a pretty decent selection if you want to try and make up ground in your league and know the players above you will pick Martin or Kevin.

Brad Keselowski: Let’s take a look at Brad’s last ten starts at Las Vegas. In that stretch of races he has three wins and seven top five finishes. Those are pretty good stats at any track. Brad has shown that he can win on any given week this year even though he hasn’t been consistent. This is one of those tracks where he should be good though.

Chase Elliott: Chase has also shown that he can get the job done this year, but once again this team doesn’t seem to be in the groove they were in earlier in the season when they were winning races. He is either pretty good or pretty bad at this track with three top ten finishes and three finishes in the thirties in his seven starts here. Might be better to save him for the road course race.

Ryan Blaney: Even though he got knocked out of the playoffs he isn’t going to give up on trying to win races yet this season. Ryan has five top seven finishes in his eight career starts and we have already discussed how good the other two Penske drivers have been at this track. Ryan could be a contender once again this weekend.

Denny Hamlin: Here was a surprise to me. Denny only has three top ten finishes here in his last eleven starts and has only scored points in three stages in that stretch. This might not mean much as we have seen him compete all year with Kevin Harvick on this type of track. There are better places to use him left on the schedule though.

Kyle Busch: Kyle knows he’s going to have to start winning if he want to make it into the next two rounds. He was very disappointed after the Bristol race when he finished second to Kevin. He hasn’t run real well on this type of track all season, but hasn’t been bad here in the past. This is his home town track and he hasn’t won here since the 2009 season. Not sure if this is the point of the season where they put it all together on this track type.

Aric Almirola: Aric is a driver who isn’t great here, but has one of the best average finishes in his last six starts. In fact his best finish in those races was a sixth place finish, yet his average finishing position is under twelve. He is going to have to run better and probably win a race if he wants to keep advancing.

Austin Dillon: Austin is on a bit of a roll lately and has surprised some people including myself with his consistency. He finished fourth here this spring, but like Aric he hasn’t been great at this track in his career. He has only two top five finishes at this track in ten starts. He has no other top ten finishes here either. This could be a make or break week for him.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Martin Truex Jr.
• Brad Keselowski

Driver Group Game Group B

• Ryan Blaney
• Aric Almirola
• Alex Bowman
• William Byron

Driver Group Game Group C

• Tyler Reddick
• Cole Custer

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

1. Martin Truex Jr.
2. Kevin Harvick
3. Brad Keselowski
4. Joey Logano
5. Ryan Blaney

Dark Horse: Alex Bowman

Stay Away From: Matt Kenseth

Big 18: Alex Bowman