The Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway was brutal last week and left many fantasy players licking their wounds.
With four DNFs in the Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet Yahoo league, my total number of DNFs has grown to 13 for the season (41% of all selections). Needless to say, the element of luck has not been on my side yet this season. NASCAR stays in the east this week at Richmond International Raceway. Like Bristol, your goal is to select the drivers who will earn points in the laps led and fast laps categories. With more chances to earn points due to the number of laps in short tracks, we will once again see a significant difference between the winners and losers this week. My suggestion is to front load your lineup to get as many opportunities as possible to benefit from the laps led statistic.
Although he has not led a ton of laps at Richmond, Kevin Harvick has been running near the top all season. Given his lightning-hot start in 2015, he has to find your lineup on the tracks where he has seen success. Over the past five Richmond races, Harvick is second in the series with an average finish position of 7.6. Historically, he has spent 93% of his Richmond laps running in the top-15 since 2005. He also has earned 15 top-10 finishes during this time span. Harvick will eventually cool off, but he will stay in my lineup until he does.
For the second spot on my roster, I am choosing the driver with the most Fantasy Live points and laps led over the last five Richmond races. Brad Keselowski has led 639 laps and is significantly higher than the second-best driver (Clint Bowyer with 273). Keselowski also has the best lap-to-lap performance. Although the long-term numbers are not overly impressive, the #2 car is clearly a favorite this week after a disappointing Bristol outing.
The third roster spot is a toss-up between Denny Hamlin and Jeff Gordon. I like Hamlin at Virginia tracks, but his 20.5 average finish over the last five Richmond races was enough to scare me away. His numbers looked eerily similar at Martinsville, and Denny won that race. Despite the similarities, Gordon is a safer option and has a high likelihood of success this week. He holds a 5th place average finish position over the last five Richmond races. Over the same period of time, Gordon has the third-most laps led and the second-most Fantasy Live points per race. Historically, Gordon has 12 top-10 finishes in his last twenty Richmond races. I am expecting Gordon to be near the top this week.
After choosing three of the highest salary drivers, there is little room remaining for the final two spots. Although he struggled in his Cup debut, Chase Elliot is a high-risk, high-reward option at $9.00. I am hoping he is over his jitters and does not bounce off cars like a pinball this week. Michael Annett has a 35th place average finish position at Richmond. For now, he is the top budget option available. My choice for the final position will be based on qualifying. I will likely pick a driver under $7.00 at the bottom of the qualifying field and hope he passes a few wrecked cars to provide value (see Matt DiBenedetto or Alex Kennedy most weeks).
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format.
Our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five Richmond races. Next, we divide the average points by the salary cap figure. The result is a number that reveals which drivers are the most likely to provide value this week. Since Denny Hamlin missed my lineup, we will use his Richmond numbers to further illustrate this formula.
DENNY HAMLIN AT RICHMOND
- Average finish position last five Richmond races: 20.5 equals 23.5 Fantasy Live points
- Start-to-finish differential: Negative 7.5 equals (-7.5) Fantasy Live points
- Laps Led: 202 equals 20.2 Fantasy Live points
- Fast Laps: 77 equals 7.7 Fantasy Live Points
- Average number of points per race last five Richmond races: 50.88
- Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $26.00
- Fantasy Live points per dollar: 50.88 divided by $26.00 equals 1.96 points per dollar
Below is the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver at Richmond. My picks are highlighted picks are in bold. We will use the 2015 numbers for all tracks for any driver with no Richmond track history. I will comment on any suggestions after qualifying. I will also post my Yahoo lineup this week so you know who to avoid in your lineups. With 28 races still left in the season, there is plenty of time to catch up.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Brad Keselowski 4.03
- Jeff Gordon 2.90
- Matt Kenseth 2.12
- Denny Hamlin 1.96
- Kevin Harvick 1.85
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.81
- Jamie McMurray 1.39
- Joey Logano 1.31
- Kyle Larson 0.89
- Jimmie Johnson 0.77
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Clint Bowyer 2.53
- Carl Edwards 2.35
- Ryan Newman 2.23
- Kurt Busch 2.10
- Aric Almirola 1.73
- Martin Truex Jr. 1.67
- Greg Biffle 1.58
- Paul Menard 1.44
- Kasey Kahne 1.40
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Sam Hornish Jr. 2.29
- AJ Allmendinger 2.27
- Tony Stewart 1.97
- Casey Mears 1.89
- Austin Dillon 1.43
- Danica Patrick 1.39
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- David Gilliland 2.55
- Justin Allgaier 2.49
- Trevor Bayne 2.25 *
- David Ragan 1.42
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.35
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Alex Kennedy 3.09 *
- Brett Moffitt 2.86 *
- Matt DiBenedetto 2.50 *
- Landon Cassill 2.24
- JJ Yeley 1.89
- Brendan Gaughan 1.83 *
- Cole Whitt 1.18
- Jeb Burton 1.08 *
- Reed Sorenson 1.05
- Josh Wise 0.80
- Michael Annett 0.79
- Alex Bowman 0.41
- Chase Elliott(-0.33) *
- Joey Gase n/a *
* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.
6 replies on “NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 RICHMOND, TOYOTA OWNERS 400”
Chase Elliott’s 16th starting position was enough to scare me into switching him out with Alex Bowman (qualified 41st). I was intrigued by Kahne qualifying near the back, but preferred to keep the top drivers to capture the laps led statistic. My Yahoo picks this week are Harvick, Kurt Busch, McMurray, and Chase Elliot.
I would add Reed Sorenson $6.00 in place of Elliott, or Bowman.
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Chase is a definite high-risk, high-reward driver, I have to see him do well with the big boys before I pick him