The Bojangles’ Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway lived up to its reputation as a 5-hour battle of attrition to the drivers and viewers. When the caution flags stopped, Carl Edwards came back from the dead to win the race in the closing laps!
We are now only one race away from the start of the Chase. Richmond International Raceway also offers the last opportunity for drivers to qualify for the playoffs by winning a race.
Expect drivers like Kyle Larson and Kasey Kahne to take long chances to try to sneak a win. From a fantasy racing perspective, front-load your lineup in an effort to get the most out of the laps led and fast laps statistic. With each team having a unique strategy due to the standings, the race in Richmond may prove itself to be difficult to forecast. I am leaning towards drivers who have been consistent throughout the season and had a positive outcome in the race earlier this season.
For those of you who read my article on a weekly basis, the first roster choice will be no surprise. Kevin Harvick has been the most consistent driver in the series in 2015 and has a positive track history at Richmond. The combination is a recipe for a high probability for success this week. Harvick has finished in the top-5 in three of his last five Richmond starts. Over the same time span, Harvick has an average finish position of 6th place and has spent 95% of his laps running in the top-15. In the April race, Harvick finished in 2nd place while spending 100% of his laps running in the top-15. Through 23 races in 2015, Harvick has earned 16 top-5 finishes and 20 top-10 finishes. He is 1st in the Series in laps led and fast laps. Due to his numbers, I recommend Harvick for your lineup.
After leading 291 laps en route to a victory in April, Kurt Busch is my recommendation for the 2nd roster spot. With laps led and fast laps weighted heavily this week, going with a driver who had a dominating effort during the most recent race is usually an effective strategy. Kurt Busch’s success at Richmond is not limited to the April race. With four top-10 finishes in his last five races and an average finish position of 8.4, Kurt Busch has enjoyed intermediate success as well. In 2015, Kurt Busch has the 2nd most laps led and 13 top-10 finishes. I expect Kurt Busch to reward owners who start him this week.
Although Joey Logano has not enjoyed long-term success in Richmond, his team has been on fire in the last couple of months. Logano finished in 5th place and led 94 laps earlier this season. With four top-10 finishes in five starts, Logano has seen success at the track. In 2015, Logano has 13 top-5 finishes and the 3rd-most laps led. Although my recommendations at the top of the lineups is predictable, all three combine 2015 success with positive track history. All three have a high probability for success this week.
With a front-loaded lineup, there is little salary cap room for the final two spots. I will round out my lineup with the best drivers available. These two slots are subject to change after qualifying. Michael Annett has a 34th place average in three starts and an average finish position of 32.3 in 2015. While neither number will lead you to a championship, there should be enough room to provide a value for his salary cap number. Annett has not provided my lineup with much value the last few weeks, so I will may consider the driver who qualifies 43rd in this spot. Matt DiBenedetto has been a pleasant surprise to those who have used him in 2015. He only finished 37th in April’s race, but a 31.5 average finish position in 2015 shows that he can provide value.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best lineup each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the past five Richmond races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how much value to expect from each driver. Brad Keselowski has earned the most points of any driver, but misses my lineup because he has slipped a little over the last couple of months. As a consolation prize, we will use his Richmond numbers to further illustrate the formula.
BRAD KESELOWSKI AT RICHMOND
- Average finish position last five Richmond races: 14.4 equals 29.6 Fantasy Live points
- Start-to-finish differential: Negative 7.2 equals (-7.2) Fantasy Live points
- Laps led: 648 equals 64.8 Fantasy Live points
- Fast laps: 209 equals 20.9 Fantasy Live points
- Total points earned last five Richmond races: 108.1
- Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $27.25
- Fantasy points per dollar: 108.1 divided by $27.25 equals 3.97 points per dollar
Below you will find the fantasy points per dollar for each driver entered in this week’s race. If you are far behind in the standings, you may want to consider drivers who are out of the Chase and going for broke this week. My suggested picks are in bold. For drivers with no Richmond history, we are using their 2015 numbers for all of their races to give you an idea of the value that they are providing. Good luck with your picks this week. Feel free to share your rosters in the comments.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Brad Keselowski 3.97
- Kurt Busch 3.35
- Kevin Harvick 2.07
- Matt Kenseth 2.05
- Joey Logano 2.01
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.67
- Kyle Busch 1.37
- Jimmie Johnson 1.18
- Denny Hamlin 0.56
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Jeff Gordon 3.23
- Carl Edwards 2.25
- Ryan Newman 2.12
- Aric Almirola 1.96
- Clint Bowyer 1.96
- Kasey Kahne 1.75
- Jamie McMurray 1.68
- Paul Menard 1.46
- Martin Truex Jr. 1.46
- Kyle Larson 1.18
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Greg Bifflo 1.50
- Austin Dillon 1.34
- Tony Stewart 0.92
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- AJ Allmendinger 2.58
- Trevor Bayne 2.20
- Casey Mears 1.59
- Danica Patrick 1.52
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.46
- Cole Whitt 0.74
- Sam Hornish Jr. 0.27
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Timmy Hill 3.60
- David Gilliland 2.87
- Justin Allgaier 2.69
- Reed Sorenson 2.21
- JJ Yeley 1.98
- Landon Cassill 1.97
- Jeb Burton 1.89 *
- David Ragan 1.85
- Jeb Burton 1.58
- Michael Annett 1.52
- Alex Bowman 1.28
- Matt DiBenedetto 1.13
- Brian Scott 0.53 *
- Josh Wise 0.49
- Brett Moffitt 0.00
- Michael McDowell (-0.94)
* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.