NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 PHOENIX, CAMPING WORLD 500

The first three weeks of the NASCAR season have been devastating to some fantasy rosters. The unpredictable nature of racing will make us tear our hair out, but is the beauty of playing fantasy NASCAR racing. For those of you with Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards on your roster last week, the race at Phoenix offers an opportunity to gain back some of your points. Phoenix has some drivers who stand out statistically. My advice to you is to front-load your roster and fill the final spots with budget drivers.

There is an obvious choice who should make his way onto your fantasy NASCAR rosters. Over the past five races at Phoenix, Kevin Harvick has an average finish position of 3.4. With 573 laps led in the same time span, Harvick has more than double the second-best driver in this statistical category. Since 2005, Harvick has spent 78% of his laps in the top-15 and has eight top-5 finishes in his last 20 Phoenix races. The combination of early success in 2015 with the track data makes the #4 team a must-own this week.

Although he has stayed quiet so far by his standards, Brad Keselowski is a great candidate for your roster this week. His 5.6 average finish position over the past five Phoenix races is second to Kevin Harvick. His lap-to-lap performance is also second to the #4 team over the same time span. With only five top-10 finishes in his last 11 races at the track, Keselowski does not have long-term track success, but I think he is due for a top-5 finish.

Originally, I had Jimmie Johnson as the third member on my roster. His challenges at Las Vegas scared me enough to switch to his teammate. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been competitive each week this season and has an eighth place average over the last five Phoenix races. His nine top-10 finishes in twenty races is not overly impressive, but he has displayed consistency at the track. I expect Dale Earnhardt Jr. to remain competitive this week, and is worth a roster spot.

With a front-loaded lineup, there is little salary cap room for the final roster spots. The #18 car is historically one of the best cars in the series. Because of this, one of the budget drivers for your lineup should be David Ragan. While he only has a 31st place average, even average numbers should provide value for your lineup. The final pick performs better than his average at Phoenix. JJ Yeley has an average finish position of 29th place and should provide great value for your lineup. If he comes close to the 3.41 points per fantasy dollar, you will be glad to use him this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply picking the top five drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. First, our points per dollar formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five races at a given track. Then, we divide that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number that can be used to predict how many points to expect from each driver. Since I chickened out of putting Jimmie Johnson in my lineup this week, I will use his numbers to further illustrate the formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT PHOENIX

• Average finish position last five years: 16.4 equals 27.6 fantasy points per race
• Start-to-finish differential: Negative seven equals -7 fantasy points per race
• Laps Led: Two laps equals 0.2 fantasy points per race
• Fast Laps: 103 laps equals 10.3 fantasy points per race
• Average number of points per race last five years: 31.1
• Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.25
• Points per Fantasy Live dollar: 31.1 / 27.25 equals 1.14 points per dollar

Below you will see the Points per Fantasy Live dollar for each drivers. This week’s recommendations are highlighted in bold. Good luck in your lineups in Phoenix.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

• Kevin Harvick 4.78
• Brad Keselowski 2.26
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.06
• Joey Logano 1.56
• Jeff Gordon 1.54
• Denny Hamlin 1.44
• Matt Kenseth 1.36
• Jamie McMurray 1.19
• Jimmie Johnson 1.14
• Kyle Larson 0.75

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

• Carl Edwards 2.84
• Greg Biffle 1.86
• Kasey Kahne 1.76
• Ryan Newman 1.56
• Tony Stewart 1.47
• Paul Menard 1.03
• Clint Bowyer 0.65
• Brian Vickers 0.63

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

• AJ Allmendinger 1.84
• Aric Almirola 1.37
• Martin Truex Jr. 0.62
• Sam Hornish Jr. 0.48
• Austin Dillon 0.37

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.67
• Casey Mears 2.00
• David Gilliland 1.65
• Danica Patrick 1.60
• David Ragan 1.08
• Regan Smith 0.55

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

• JJ Yeley 3.27
• Michael Annett 2.47
• Landon Cassill 2.12
• Reed Sorenson 1.78
• Justin Allgaier 1.05
• Alex Bowman 0.93
• Cole Whitt 0.55
• Josh Wise 0.53
• Jeb Burton * 1.24
• Brett Moffitt* 3.86
• Brendan Gaughan * 2.86

* No Phoenix statistics available. This number represents the points per dollar for all 2015 races.