NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 MARTINSVILLE, STP 500

After three races on the west coast, NASCAR moves back east to the short track of Martinsville Speedway. There are no sure things in racing, but we have a better chance of being right at Martinsville than most weeks. Due to 500 laps at this race, laps led and fast laps are at a premium. I would suggest front-loading your lineup this week in an effort to capture these numbers.

Fantasy analysts and players love Martinsville because generally the drivers perform as expected. The predictable nature of the track usually make us all feel smarter for one week.

CREAM OF THE CROP

Two drivers who will find their way to the top two roster spots are Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Over the past five races at Martinsville, Johnson has averaged 195 laps led per race. Over the same time span, he has an average finish position of 8.2. His historical data is also impressive. In his last 20 races at the track, 15 have resulted in a top-5 finish. Since 2005, Jimmie Johnson has spent 89% of his laps in the top-15 and had a series-best 2,576 laps led. Johnson is a safe bet to be an asset to your fantasy lineup this week.

Jeff Gordon has numbers that are equally impressive. He has a 5th place average over his past five Martinsville races. Since 2005, Gordon has 16 top-5 finishes in 20 races. He also has a 5th place average finish and 88% of his laps in the top-15 during the same time span. With 1,869 laps led, Gordon is second to Johnson in this category. Gordon is a dependable driver to choose this week for your lineup.

REMAINING ROSTER SPOTS

The choice for the third driver for your lineup is not as clear of a choice. One can choose a driver with recent success in the series like Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, or Brad Keselowski. The other strategy would be to choose a driver with historical track data like Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, or Clint Bowyer. Since Martinsville is generally a track with predictable outcomes, I am leaning towards choosing a driver with a successful track history.

Denny Hamlin has excellent long-term numbers at the track. His 16th place average finish position over the last five races is enough to scare me away from adding him to my roster. Kenseth has an 8th place average finish over his last five Martinsville races, but I am going to lean towards Clint Bowyer this week because of his lower salary cap figure.

While his 2015 effort has been mediocre, Clint Bowyer has enough recent success at the paperclip track to be worth the risk. If he makes his way into your lineup, keep an eye on the qualifying sessions and practice times to make sure he is fast. Bowyer has an average finish position of 5.2 over the past five races and the third-best lap-to-lap performance in the series. Since 2005, Bowyer has the fifth-best average finish position at the track (behind Gordon, Johnson, Hamlin, and Dale Jr.) With 12 top-10 finishes in his last 18 races, Bowyer should be an option in your lineup that will give your lineup additional flexibility for the final two spots.

While consistency is beneficial for the top of your lineup, consistency can be an enemy when attempting to select budget options at the bottom of your roster. Bowyer’s cap value is low enough to provide the salary cap room to add Justin Allgaier onto my roster. He has a 20th place average in two races last year. In a race where budget options are at a premium, I expect Allgaier to be a valuable addition to my roster if he matches his track average. He is slightly better than last year and specializes on short tracks.

The fifth choice for my roster was originally for David Ragan’s team, but I went a different direction with the pick. With Chase Elliot starting his NASCAR career at a $9.00 salary cap value, I will take the risk on the rookie. The expectations are low because he will be driving the #25 car. A $9.00 cap is a low risk, and there is a high reward. If he looks suspect in qualifying, then I will switch my pick back to David Ragan.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on www.nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply choosing the top driver, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver for the last five Martinsville races. Then, we divide that number by the salary cap figure on Fantasy Live. The end result is a number that will indicate which drivers provide the most value for each fantasy dollar. Since Denny Hamlin was a near miss on my roster, we will use his numbers to further illustrate the points per dollar formula.

DENNY HAMLIN AT MARTINSVILLE

• Average finish position last five Martinsville races: 16.8 equals 27.2 points per race
• Start-to-finish differential: Negative 13.5 equals (-13.5) points per race
• Laps Led last five Martinsville races: 94 equals 9.4 points per race
• Fast Laps last five Martinsville races: 117 equals 11.7 points per race
• Total points per race: 40.08
• Fantasy Live Salary Cap figure: $25.50
• Points per Fantasy Live dollar: 40.08 / $25.50 equals 1.57 points per dollar

Below you will find the points per Fantasy Live dollar for each drivers. This week’s recommended picks are in bold. We will use the 2015 numbers for drivers who do not have a track history. Good luck in fantasy racing this week!

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

• Jimmie Johnson 5.79
• Jeff Gordon 3.73
• Matt Kenseth 3.04
• Denny Hamlin 1.57
• Kasey Kahne 1.46
• Joey Logano 1.43
• Jamie McMurray 1.39
• Kevin Harvick 1.16
• Kyle Larson 0.09

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

• Clint Bowyer 3.78
• Greg Biffle 2.25
• Paul Menard 1.38
• Carl Edwards 1.33
• Kurt Busch 1.12
• Ryan Newman 0.81

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

• Sam Hornish Jr. 2.97
• Austin Dillon 2.42
• Aric Almirola 2.01
• AJ Allmendinger 1.96
• Tony Stewart 1.39
• Martin Truex Jr. 0.56

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

• Justin Allgaier 2.96
• David Gilliland 2.59
• Danica Patrick 2.03
• Casey Mears 1.78
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.87
• David Ragan 0.86

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

• Michael Annett 3.67
• JJ Yeley 3.52
• Brett Moffitt 3.25 *
• Landon Cassill 3.23
• Cole Whitt 2.57
• Brendan Gaughan 2.10 *
• Mike Bliss 1.90 *
• Alex Kennedy 1.80 *
• Josh Wise 1.67
• Jeb Burton 1.35 *
• Mike DiBenedetto 0.95 *
• Alex Bowman 0.70
• Chase Elliot n/a

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.