Last week’s race took a toll on many of our Fantasy NASCAR rosters. We hope for more consistent finishes from the top drivers during the first leg of the west coast swing in Las Vegas. This week’s recommended strategy is to pick your three top drivers and fill the final two spots with value picks.
NOT PLAYING FAVORITES
There is not a team that is a clear-cut favorite statistically this week.
Because of this, my first pick this week is one of the consistent drivers in the series coming off his first win of the season. Over the last five races at Las Vegas, Jimmie Johnson has a sixth-place average finish and the best lap-to-lap performance in the series. Half of his starts since 2005 have resulted in a top-5 finish at the track. Johnson has an excellent chance of a top-5 finish and is a low-risk option on your roster.
Carl Edwards, with a 5.6 average finish position over the past five races, has the best average finish numbers in the series. His salary cap number took a dive after Daytona and can be on your roster at a better price. Like Johnson, Edwards has finished in the top-5 in half of his races since 2005. Historically, Edwards spends 70% of his laps in the top-15, which is third-best in the series behind Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon.
Maybe as a NASCAR Fantasy Live writer, I can be too technical when I am annoyed that the Fantasy Live commercial airing during races boasts a lineup that is significantly over the Fantasy Live salary cap. Random misgivings aside, NASCAR moves west for the next three weeks after a cold weekend in Georgia.
Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon have led the most laps over the last five races, and have some of the best points-per-dollar rates of any drivers. Both drivers will stay off my roster this week. For Gordon, his car has been competitive. Luck has not been on his side so far in 2015. This may not be fair, but luck plays an important role in Fantasy NASCAR. Tony Stewart is off to a slow start this season, which is not unusual for him. I need to see more from his team before I consider rostering him.
The third roster spot is a toss-up between Logano and Harvick. Their numbers are very close with a slight edge going to Logano. In the last five years, Logano has an average finish position of 12.2. His team has started the season hot and this pick has more to do with the start of the season. Since 2005, Logano has spent 62% of his laps in the top-15. My biggest concern with Logano is that he only has one top-5 finish at Las Vegas. Given his early success, he is worth the risk. Qualifying position may determine if I go with Harvick or Logano when I officially set my roster late in the week.
With the top drivers absorbing a high percentage of the salary cap, the remaining two spots will be filled by budget drivers. David Ragan has averaged a 25th place finish over the last five years. With Kyle Busch’s equipment, he has a good chance for a top-20 finish. Trevor Bayne has an 18th place average in his last four races at Las Vegas. He also has three top-20 finishes in four attempts. Though I am not expecting points from fast laps and laps led from either driver, a middle-of-the-pack finish will make both drivers valuable.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average points earned per race for each driver. Then, we divide the average points by the Fantasy Live salary cap number. The end result is a number that shows how many points to expect for each fantasy dollar. Since I narrowly kept Kevin Harvick off my roster, I will use his numbers to illustrate the points-per-dollar formula.
KEVIN HARVICK AT LAS VEGAS
Average finish position last five Las Vegas races: 16th place equals 28 fantasy points per race. Start-to-finish differential: Plus 1 equals 1 fantasy point per race. Laps Led: 29 equals 2.9 points per race.
- Fast Laps: 72 equals 7.2 points per race
- Total points per race last five Las Vegas races: 39.1
- Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $28.00
- Points per Dollar: 39.1 / 28 equals 1.41 Fantasy Points Per Dollar
Below you will find the fantasy points-per-dollar for each driver. Suggested picks are in bold. Brian Scott and Matt DiBenedetto have no 2015 or track data and are not included on this list. Good luck having a successful third week of the Fantasy NASCAR season. Feel free to share your roster decisions in the comment section at the end of the article.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Jimmie Johnson 2.62
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.17
- Kasey Kahne 2.17
- Matt Kenseth 2.16
- Jeff Gordon 1.88
- Kevin Harvick 1.41
- Denny Hamlin 1.33
- Joey Logano 1.27
- Brad Keselowski 1.21
- Kyle Larson 1.03
- Jamie McMurray 0.89
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Tony Stewart 3.84
- Carl Edwards 2.61
- Paul Menard 2.33
- Brian Vickers 1.41
- Greg Biffle 1.31
- Ryan Newman 1.15
- Clint Bowyer 1.00
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Martin Truex Jr. 2.03
- Austin Dillon 1.28
- AJ Allmendinger 0.88
- Aric Almirola 0.79
- Sam Hornish Jr. 0.15
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- Trevor Bayne 3.23
- David Ragan 2.19
- Justin Allgaier 1.90
- Danica Patrick 1.60
- Casey Mears 1.56
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.66
- Ryan Blaney (-1.58) *
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Michael Annett 3.00
- Reed Sorenson 2.29
- Jeb Burton 2.00 *
- Regan Smith 1.94
- Travis Kvapil 1.60
- David Gilliland 1.57
- Alex Bowman 0.80
- Josh Wise 0.23
- Brendan Gaughan 0.00
- Cole Whitt 0.00
- Landon Cassill (-0.12)
- Michael McDowell (-0.13)
- JJ Yeley (-0.18)
* Jeb Burton and Ryan Blaney are using their 2015 totals from all races since they have no track history.