Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s starting position scared me away at Talladega. The fan favorite rewarded the owners who added him to their roster. After a series of short track and super speedways, we return to an intermediate sized track this week at Kansas. Intermediate tracks generally favor the top drivers in the series. As a result, I would suggest front-loading your roster with three top drivers and finding the best budget drivers possible for the final two spots.
An easy choice for your Kansas lineup this week is Kevin Harvick. Harvick has run near the top at every track, and he is especially dominant at tracks this size. Harvick has led the most laps over the past five Kansas races and is second in the series with an average finish position of 7.6. Historically, Harvick has run 73% of his laps in the top-15 since 2005 and has a 10th place average finish position during this time span. Kevin Harvick is an easy choice for the top of your lineup.
There are three other top drivers I would like this weekend and choosing a driver to leave off was challenging. After much deliberation, my second roster spot is going to Jimmie Johnson due to his long-term history at the track. Johnson has a respectable 13th place average finish position in the last five Kansas races and the fourth-most laps led. Since 2005, Johnson has 12 top-10 finishes in 14 races. During the same time span, Johnson has the best average finish position and the most laps led of any driver. The #48 team is looking more consistent as the season progresses, and I have high expectations this week.
Joey Logano’s long-term numbers at Kansas do not warrant a roster spot. However, he has looked much better since joining the Penske team and is one of the favorites to win this race. Over the last five races, Logano has a 13th place average finish position and the second-most laps led. Logano’s team is one of the best this year and Logano is a solid pick for your roster.
With a front-loaded lineup, there is not many salary cap dollars available for the final two roster spots. I am going with two high-risk, high-reward options. Erik Jones struggled as a last second substitute for Denny Hamlin earlier this season. With time to prepare, I am expecting a decent finish now that he is taking over for the #18 team. Ty Dillon has a 28th place finish in one race this year. My expectations are low, but a similar finish would provide value with an $8 salary cap. Michael Annett missed my roster, but has a 25th place average finish in two races. Consider him as a budget option.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five Kansas races. Next, we divide this number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure. The end result is a number that shows how many points to expect from each NASCAR driver. Matt Kenseth is the front-end driver that barely missed my roster. Dale Earnhardt Jr. was in this position last week and won in Talladega. As a consolation prize, we will use his numbers over the past five Kansas races to illustrate the formula.
DALE EARNHARDT JR AT KANSAS
- Average finish position last five Kansas races: 7.2 = 36.8 fantasy live points per race
- Start-to-finish differential: Plus 7.8 equals 7.8 points per race
- Laps led: 263 equals 26.3 points per race
- Fast laps: 121 equals 12.1 point per race
- Total points per race: 83
- Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $26
- Points per Fantasy Live dollar: 83 divided by $26 equals 3.19 points per dollar
Below you will find the results for each drivers. Suggested picks are in bold. For drivers with no Kansas history, we are using their 2015 numbers for all of their races to give you an idea of the value that they are providing. Good luck with your picks this week. Feel free to share your rosters in the comments.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Matt Kenseth 3.19
- Kevin Harvick 2.83
- Kyle Larson 2.19
- Joey Logano 2.08
- Jeff Gordon 1.98
- Jimmie Johnson 1.87
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.47
- Brad Keselowski 1.36
- Denny Hamlin 1.23
- Jamie McMurray 1.03
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Martin Truex Jr. 2.25
- Kasey Kahne 1.98
- Paul Menard 1.85
- Carl Edwards 1.82
- Tony Stewart 1.60
- Clint Bowyer 1.52
- Aric Almirola 1.50
- Greg Biffle 1.13
- Ryan Newman 0.76
- Kurt Busch 0.73
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Austin Dillon 2.09
- AJ Allmendinger 1.06
- Sam Hornish Jr. (-0.52)
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- Trevor Bayne 2.78
- David Gilliland 2.17
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.67
- Danica Patrick 1.63
- Casey Mears 1.21
- Justin Allgaier (-1.22)
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Michael Annett 4.65
- Matt DiBenedetto 3.20*
- Landon Cassill 2.75
- Cole Whitt 2.59
- Brett Moffitt 2.56*
- Ty Dillon 2.38*
- Mike Bliss 2.36*
- Josh Wise 1.60
- Alex Bowman 1.38
- Brendan Gaughan 1.33*
- Jeb Burton 1.17*
- Michael McDowell (-0.88)
- Erik Jones (no data)
* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.
6 replies on “NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 KANSAS, SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS 400”
After qualifying, I subbed out Erik Jones for Michael Annett. Annett is moving from the 43rd spot and Jones could lose a lot of spots during the race after a 12th place qualifying. Johnson qualified 19th and I have a feeling he comes through the field. Logano and Harvick qualified high and should stay up there.
This week I went with:
22 – Logano
4 – Harvick
48 – Johnson
18 – Jones
33 – Dillon
I had Kenneth at first because he is that driver who stays at the front all day at most all tracks, but with Jimmie starting mid pack I am sure he will be contending for the win by mid race. I also was about to drop Jones but am taking a risk and keeping him. With everything we have seen Jones do in the trucks & xfinity cars I would not be surprised to see him shock the world with a top 10 finish because we know he is in top quality equipment. I went with Harvick to win the race and Chevy as my winning manufacture.
Bill,
Thanks for doing this each week, I won’t make my picks before checking out your post each week. I wanted to let you know I posted a link to this post on my twitter account, my twitter name is @Dale_Yeah406 & I followed @OneBadWheel on twitter. If you don’t want it posted on twitter let me know, thanks again bill.
Jones was a great pick until the wreck. I switched him out of Fantasy Live, but got burned in Yahoo leagues. Thanks for posting on your twitter.
It was a good race & for a longtime it looked like my risk of picking Jones was going to pay off. Either way I was impressed with the natural talent Jones showed on the most common track style we race at. He will be tough to beat when he gets some more seat time and experience. Johnson was a great choice and played off starting in 19th, leading laps, & winning the race.
To be honest I just started making my picks based on the Fantasy Live points system. Over the last 5 years I have always pucked the guys who should do good on that style track and kept guys for weeks because of difference between what I paid for them and their current value. That’s how I did it with the old ESPN fantasy NASCAR, yahoo, & NASCAR Live. I recently started making my picks based on the amount of potential points that could be earned, mostly because I was leading my NASCAR Live league after race 3 and now I am in 11th.
I Picked:
1. Jimmie Johnson- He has been doing so well, i’m not going to sub him out. Paid off.
2. Joey Logano- I was hesitant, but he had a great run in the end.
3. Kevin Harvick- He has been great at Kansas, and running great this year.
4. Alex Bowman- Every time I pick him, he is terrible. I was hesitant, and should have been.
5. Brett Moffitt- He has been doing great, but not a great run.
Winner. Joey Logano- Great Run, but didn’t win.
Manufacturer. Chevrolet- Always pick Chevy.
Alright Day for me, looking forward for Charlotte.