NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 BRISTOL, FOOD CITY 500 IN SUPPORT OF STEVE BYRNES AND STAND UP TO CANCER

After watching Jimmie Johnson hold off Kevin Harvick in the Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway for his second win of the season, NASCAR moves back east to Bristol Motor Speedway. Due to the nature of the track, Bristol is one of the most exciting races of the season. This week’s pick is challenging because there are many drivers who have seen success at the steep track.

My suggestion is to front-load your lineup and hope you pick the drivers who dominate the laps led and fast laps. With 500 laps in the race, there will be a great disparity between the haves and the have nots in your fantasy leagues. Keep a close eye on qualifying as you may want to roster the teams that start at the front.

The first driver on my team seems to always be running in 8th place, and I hope this pattern changes this week. Over the past five Bristol races, Kenseth has twice as many laps led as the second-best driver (tied between Hamlin and Edwards). His average finish position is a modest 15.4, but his lap-to-lap performance is the best in the series. With eight top-5 finishes in his last 20 Bristol races, Kenseth has seen the most success at the track. After ignoring track history last week and keeping Jimmie Johnson out of my lineup, I want to make sure the driver with the best track history remains in my lineup.

The second driver for my lineup has the best average finish position over the past five Bristol races. Joey Logano was in my lineup last week, and stayed in the top-5 for most of the race. However, he did not lead too many laps and was only an adequate selection. He is second to Kenseth in lap-to-lap performance and has a high probability for success this week. Although his long-term numbers at the track are not impressive, Logano is one of the best drivers in the series and should run near the top.

Usually, I select the third top driver for my lineup and fill the remaining with the best available budget drivers. Due to the value of Justin Allgaier and David Ragan this week, I added the budget drivers first and will fill the fifth spot with the best driver available. Allgaier seems like he wrecks every week, and I am afraid to include him on my roster. He generally outperforms his value on shorter tracks and averaged an 18th place finish in two Bristol races. He had similar numbers at Martinsville and did not finish the race. I will take the risk and hope it pays off.

I left David Ragan off my roster a couple of weeks ago at Martinsville due to his underwhelming track data. I regretted keeping him off my team. The scenario is similar at Bristol, where Ragan enjoys a 23rd place average finish over the last five races. That number should alone provide value. With the #18 team, he is likely to improve on his average. If you value track data, then you may want to choose Ricky Stenhouse Jr. who has great numbers in a limited amount of Bristol races.

With the remaining budget, the best driver for the final roster spot is Carl Edwards. Edwards has led 242 laps over his last five Bristol races and is becoming more consistent as the season progresses. He only has a 17th place average finish position over the same time span, which makes him slightly risky. With nine top-10 finishes in his last 20 Bristol races, Edwards has shown enough consistency at the track to be a contender this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, average finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Bristol races. Next, we divide that number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure in order to know which starters will provide the most value for your fantasy dollars. I like Kasey Kahne this week, but he got squeezed out of my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use Kasey’s Bristol numbers to further illustrate our formula.

KASEY KAHNE AT BRISTOL

• Average finish position last five Bristol races: 11th place equals 33 Fantasy Live points
• Start-to-finish differential: Plus 2.4 equals 2.4 Fantasy Live points
• Laps led: 207 laps equals 20.7 Fantasy Live points per race
• Fast laps: 215 equals 21.5 Fantasy Live points per race
• Total points per Bristol race: 72.8
• Fantasy Live Salary Cap: $25.00
• Points per Fantasy Live dollar: 2.91

Below are the numbers for each driver. We will use the 2015 numbers for drivers with no track history. Recommended picks are in bold. Stay tuned after qualifying as I try to include any updates in the comments.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

• Matt Kenseth 3.47
• Kasey Kahne 2.91
• Joey Logano 2.45
• Kyle Larson 2.24
• Jamie McMurray 1.85
• Jeff Gordon 1.82
• Denny Hamlin 1.80
• Jimmie Johnson 1.75
• Brad Keselowski 1.46
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.40
• Kevin Harvick 1.37

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

• Carl Edwards 2.77
• Clint Bowyer 2.34
• Paul Menard 2.12
• Greg Biffle 2.03
• Kurt Busch 1.48
• Martin Truex Jr. 1.25
• Ryan Newman 1.06
• Aric Almirola 0.74

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

• Austin Dillon 1.81
• Tony Stewart 1.39
• Sam Hornish Jr. 0.31

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 4.19
• Justin Allgaier 3.48
• Danica Patrick 2.00
• David Gilliland 1.91
• David Ragan 1.68
• Casey Mears 1.61

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

• Chris Bueschler 4.62 *
• JJ Yeley 4.60
• Landon Cassill 3.27
• Alex Kennedy 2.72 *
• Josh Wise 2.37
• Michael Annett 2.32
• Matt DiBenedetto 2.26 *
• Brendan Gaughan 2.10 *
• Mike Bliss 1.81 *
• Jeb Burton 1.77 *
• Alex Bowman 1.71
• Michael McDowell 1.07
• Cole Whitt 0.08
• Brett Moffitt (-0.94)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.