Talladega is one of the most exciting races of the season, and the championship implications will only make the race more competitive. Restrictor plate tracks balance the field to the extent that there is little advantage from one team to the next. The results are unpredictable. As a result, your fantasy racing strategy for this week will be different than most. Dispensing Fantasy Racing advice is difficult as my guess is just as likely to fail as it is to succeed. That being said, some drivers have a better Talladega history than others. Below are my pre-qualifying Fantasy Live picks. My strategy is to start with this team and switch the picks with drivers who qualify near the back of the field. The points gained from start-to-finish differential should outweigh the fluky laps led number.
The driver with the most Fantasy Live points over the last five Talladega races is the first pick for my roster. Matt Kenseth has hopefully cooled off from his post-Charlotte riff with Brad Keselowski. Since 2005, Kenseth has a series-best average running position of 13.9 and runs 65% of his laps in the Top 15. Kenseth has 12 Top Twenty finishes in his last 19 Talladega races. He also led the most laps of any driver during this time span.
The second pick for my roster scared me earlier in the year at this race. He stayed in the back of the field to avoid the big wreck and is a risky strategy. With his championship situation, he may need to be more aggressive. Dale Earnhardt Jr. usually drives well at restrictor plate tracks. With an average running position of 14.7 and 60% of his laps in the Top 15, Junior has a chance to finish near the top. He is also third in laps led since 2005.
The third choice for my roster is Brian Vickers. Vickers has 5 Top Five finishes in his last 13 Talladega races. Vickers has a 17th place average finish position and spends 57% of his laps in the Top 15. David Ragan is a great bargain as he drivers much better than his salary cap figure. Ragan has 7 Top Ten finishes in his last 15 starts and holds a 15th place average finish position since 2005. He won this race last spring and has upside. He was running well earlier this year before being involved in a wreck.
There are plenty of options as any driver in the field has a legitimate shot at a Top 15 finish. My fifth roster spot goes to David Gilliland. Gilliland is not as dominant here as his teammate David Ragan, but he understands how to drive at restrictor plate tracks. Once again, my picks will be influenced by the qualifying order, and the weekly picks can change.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, average finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers ever week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula simply determines the average number of points each driver earned over the last five Talladega races and divides that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number that shows how many points to expect form each of your fantasy dollars. I almost picked Jeff Gordon over Dale Earnhardt Jr. simply due to his consistency in 2014. As a consolation prize, we will use his Talladega numbers to illustrate the points per dollar salary cap formula.
JEFF GORDON AT TALLADEGA
- Total laps led last five Talladega races: 12 equals 1.2 fantasy points per race
- Average finish position: 19th place equals 25 fantasy points per race
- Fast Laps: cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
- Start-to-finish differential: Negative Ten equals (-10) fantasy points per race
- Average points per race: 16.20
- Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.75
- Fantasy points per dollar: 16.20 divides by $27.75 equals 0.58 points per dollar
See each driver’s fantasy points per dollar over the last five Talladega race with this week’s picks in bold. Check the comments after qualifying for some additional advice.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Matt Kenseth 2.15
- Kyle Busch 1.60
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.55
- Clint Bowyer 1.51
- Jimmie Johnson 1.14
- Brad Keselowski 1.13
- Kevin Harvick 1.07
- Jeff Gordon 0.58
- Ryan Newman 0.48
- Carl Edwards 0.28
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Brian Vickers 2.43
- Kyle Larson 2.37
- Greg Biffle 1.82
- Jamie McMurray 1.46
- Martin Truex Jr. 1.42
- Paul Menard 1.37
- Aric Almirola 1.19
- Kasey Kahne 0.95
- Denny Hamlin 0.95
- Kurt Busch 0.66
- Austin Dillon 0.65
- Marcus Ambrose 0.55
- Joey Logano 0.19
- Tony Stewart (-0.01)
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.57
- AJ Allmendinger 1.49
- Casey Mears 1.05
- Justin Allgaier 0.53
- Danica Patrick 0.22
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- David Ragan 4.87
- David Gilliland 3.53
- Michael Waltrip 1.68
- Cole Whitt 1.67
- Trevor Bayne 0.21
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Travis Kvapil 5.23
- JJ Yeley 4.15
- Landon Cassill 4.00
- Michael Annett 3.22
- Michael McDowell 2.53
- Terry Labonte 2.50
- Alex Bowman 2.24
- Josh Wise 1.33
- Reed Sorenson (-0.25)