Due to an unfortunate crash late in the race, Kevin Harvick had a 19th place finish and a 1st place fantasy live finish at Atlanta. One positive aspect of the Fantasy Live points system is that dominant performers with bad luck are still rewarded. I was able to see Kasey Kahne’s first victory of the season in person, and my ears are still ringing as I write this article. Richmond is the last chance to punch a ticket to the Chase for the twenty-seven teams on the outside looking in. Richmond is also a short track. From a Fantasy Live perspective, this translates to a scoring system that will benefit the best cars more than average. This week, you need to focus on three top drivers and fill the remaining two roster spots with the best value drivers remaining.
Some weeks are challenging to find the three top drivers who stand out statistically at a race. This week, however, three drivers jumped out as the best options. Since 2005, three drivers have combined to lead 3,342 laps! Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick are at the top three drivers for most historical statistics at Richmond. All three competitors have a high probability for success.
Harvick was dialed in last week, and his pit crew let him down throughout the race. At Richmond, he has run in the top 15 for 92% of his laps and maintains an average running position of 7.8. He is third for all drivers in laps led, fast laps, and lap-to-lap performance. His average finish position of 8.8 since 2005 is second in the series. When track data combines with a successful 2014 campaign, there is s high probability for success.
Although he has been slightly inconsistent at Richmond for the last three years with a `16th place average finish position, Denny Hamlin is a must start. Denny has averaged 111.2 Fantasy Live points per race over the past five September races. This statistic is worth repeating for emphasis: Denny Hamlin has averaged 111.2 Fantasy Live points per race over the past five September starts. With 1390 laps led since 2005, Hamlin is 459 laps more than the second-best driver. Hamlin is also the best driver in the series in average running position, fast laps, and lap-to-lap performance. Hamlin’s upside is too high to ignored and should be in your lineup.
Jeff Gordon was a tempting choice due to his recent performance at the track, but Kyle Busch still gets the nod over Gordon this week. Since 2005, Kyle Busch has an average finish position of seventh and has finished in the top five an astounding thirteen times in the last nineteen Richmond races. Like Hamlin, Kyle Busch has run in the top 15 for 87% of his laps. He is second in the series in fast laps, laps led, and lap-to-lap performance. The biggest drawback with this pick is his overall 2014 performance, but I will place him in the third spot due to his consistency at Richmond.
The three drivers were easy to choose, and we need to complete the last two roster spots with value options. I was able to upgrade from Landon Cassill to David Ragan for one position. David Ragan has averaged a 24th place finish over the past five September races. David Gilliland has a 27th place average in the same time span. Neither number is impressive, but results is enough fantasy points per dollar to serve as adequate performers. I wanted to make a run at AJ Allmendinger this week, but there simply was not enough cap room to make the move I wanted.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. The salary cap format prevents us from simply selecting the best drivers every week. Our formula for fantasy live points per dollar simply averages a driver’s points over the last five races at the track and divides that number by the alary cap figure. The end result is a number that shows how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. Jeff Gordon has led the fourth-most laps since 2005 and was the odd man out for a roster spot. We will use his statistics to help clarify our formula.
JEFF GORDON AT RICHMOND
- Average finish position last five starts at Richmond: 5th place = 39 fantasy live points
- Start-to-finish differential: Plus 4 equals 4 fantasy live points per race
- Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
- Laps Led: 155 laps = 15.5 fantasy live points per race
- Total points per race: 58.5
- Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $28.00
- Fantasy Live points per dollar: 58.5 / $28 = 2.79 fantasy points per dollar
For rookies with no September history at the track, we will use their statistics from the race earlier this year at Richmond. These projections are also useful in choosing Yahoo lineups because the number take into account more data points than only the final position. See our fantasy live projections below with this week’s lineup in bold.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Jeff Gordon 2.79
- Carl Edwards 2.39
- Kevin Harvick 2.30
- Clint Bowyer 1.80
- Kyle Busch 1.62
- Brad Keselowski 1.23
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.15
- Matt Kenseth 1.09
- Jimmie Johnson 0.60
- Kasey Kahne 0.60
- Joey Logano 0.54
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Denny Hamlin 4.89
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.22
- Tony Stewart 2.13
- Ryan Newman 2.03
- Marcus Ambrose 1.66
- Jamie McMurray 1.40
- Greg Biffle 1.33
- Paul Menard 0.88
- Brian Vickers 0.85
- Aric Almirola 0.71
- Austin Dillon 0.71
- Martin Truex Jr. 0.65
- Kyle Larson 0.60
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Justin Allgaier 2.20
- AJ Allmendinger 1.83
- Casey Mears 1.49
- Danica Patrick 1.29
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- David Ragan 1.90
- David Gilliland 1.80
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Landon Cassill 2.21
- Alex Bowman 1.41
- Reed Sorenson 1.14
- Cole Whitt 0.37
- Michael Annett 0.11