With Jeff Gordon earning his fifth Brickyard victory, NASCAR returns to Pocono for a second installment. Pocono is a challenging track for teams to prepare. With three unique turns, one setup cannot be 100% effective for every turn. The end result is that some drivers have mastered the challenges of the Pennsylvania track, making this week more predictable than the average track.
One of the resources available on www.fantasyracingcheatsheet.com is a statistical engine that analyzes a driver’s performance on a lap-to-lap basis. Using the final position only tells part of the story. If a driver is dominating a track and experiences bad luck at the end of the race, using final position only for your analysis will prove to be incomplete. In order to provide you with the best analysis, I am going to utilize the resources available on this site like loop data to provide you with more information to help you make informed decisions about your lineups.
My first pick for this week illustrates the value of using this data point. During the last three August races at Pocono, Denny Hamlin averages a 29th place finish. Upon further investigation, Hamlin has led the second-most laps over the last five August races with 178. He was the fastest driver for 121 of the laps during this time span, the most of any driver. Hamlin has the best starting position, runs in the top 15 drivers for 78% of his laps, and has the best loop data score. The risk in picking Hamlin is his bad luck at the track, and his upside is worth the risk because he is valued below the top drivers.
The second fantasy live pick has led the most laps over the last five August races. Jimmie Johnson has an eighth place average finish at the track and is second in fastest laps to Hamlin since 2009. With a series-best average running position of 9.8 and 79% of laps in the top 15, Johnson has a high likelihood of success.
Because of some cost-effective choices for the fourth and fifth slots this week, I had enough salary cap money to choose Jeff Gordon as the third driver. Gordon has the best average finish position of any driver. He also has the most fantasy live points since 2009 and is coming off a win last week. Gordon runs in the top 15 drivers for 76% of his laps, tied for third in the series with Ryan Newman.
After these three picks, there was little salary cap room available for the last two spots. Lower cost drivers may not have impressive finishes, but are cost-effective and often score more points per fantasy dollar than the top competitors. Michael Annett finished 20th in June and his loop data score is closer to a $15 driver than his price tag. Annett could provide value this week. While his loop data scores are low, Landon Cassill averages a 30th place finish at the track and should net you two points per fantasy dollar, which is great value.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
In order to determine the best starters at Pocono, we look at historical data over the last five years. Fantasy Live on nascar.com combines fast laps, laps led, start-to-finish differential, and final position. We look at the last five years at the track and see how many fantasy live points each driver has accumulated per race. Then, we divide that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is that we are able to figure out how many fantasy points to expect from each fantasy dollar.
Kurt Busch is a possibility for your lineup this week, and missed the cut for my roster. We will use his Pocono statistics to illustrate how this formula works.
KURT BUSCH AT POCONO
- Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
- Laps led last five years: 64 = 6.4 points per race
- Average finish position last five years: 15th place = 29 points
- Start-to-finish differential: (-9) = negative 9 points
- Total Fantasy Live Points per Race: 26.4
- Nascar.com Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $23.50
- Points per dollar: 26.4/ $ 23.50 = 1.12 fantasy points per dollar
For rookies who have not run the August Pocono race we will use their 2014 statistics to determine their value. Please note Kyle Larson finished fifth in the June race. Review the fantasy points per dollar amounts below with this week’s picks in bold.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Jeff Gordon 2.05
- Brad Keselowski 1.86
- Jimmie Johnson 1.84
- Kasey Kahne 1.67
- Clint Bowyer 1.59
- Kevin Harvick 1.31
- Carl Edwards 1.27
- Kyle Busch 1.08
- Matt Kenseth 0.95
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.90
- Joey Logano 0.76
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Tony Stewart 2.02
- Martin Truex Jr. 1.89
- Greg Biffle 1.63
- Ryan Newman 1.46
- Austin Dillon 1.41
- Marcus Ambrose 1.32
- Denny Hamlin 1.31
- Kyle Larson 1.16
- Kurt Busch 1.12
- Paul Menard 1.09
- Jamie McMurray 0.94
- Brian Vickers 0.91
- Aric Almirola 0.62
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Justin Allgaier 1.25
- AJ Allmendinger 1.09
- Casey Mears 0.67
- Danica Patrick 0.52
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.05
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- David Ragan 2.00
- Cole Whitt 1.62
- David Gilliland 1.21
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Landon Cassill 2.16
- Michael Annett 2.15
- Alex Bowman 1.76
- Reed Sorenson 0.57