Drivers in the championship hunt are not down to their last chance to qualify for the finale at Homestead. Fistfights at the end of last week’s race are a reflection of the high stakes that are occurring in the playoffs. This week, we return to Phoenix International Raceway and the track should favor the top drivers. In Fantasy Racing, we are at the point in the season where we need to be very close to the top of the standings to have a chance to win our league. For tracks that favor the top drivers, I recommend selecting your three favorite drivers and choosing budget drivers with the final two roster spots.
The first two choices for my roster are contenders for the championship with a successful history at Phoenix. Jeff Gordon has 6 Top Ten finishes in his last 19 Phoenix races. With an average running position of 10.4 since 2003, Gordon is the third-best in the series in lap-to-lap performance. Although there are a couple of drivers with better track data, Gordon has been a top driver all season. Combining his 2014 numbers with decent track data makes Jeff Gordon a good choice for your starting lineup.
The second-best driver in the series in most statistical categories, Kevin Harvick, is another great choice for your roster. Over the past five races at Phoenix, Harvick has the best average finish position and the most laps led in the series. He has 7 Top Five finishes in his last 19 races. Harvick has a high probability for success and should find his way onto your roster.
Jimmie Johnson has the best historical numbers at Phoenix with 13 Top Five finishes in his last 19 races. Although he won last week, his inconsistency in 2014 scares me away. Instead, I am recommending a driver who is still in the playoffs without the dominant track data at Phoenix. Brad Keselowski is ninth in the series in lap-to-lap performance since 2005. I am more intrigued by his recent success where his average finish position is second in the series over the last five races. With championship implications, I expect this team to finish near the top. To summarize, if the driver got into an altercation last week, I am recommending them for your roster this week.
With the lineup front-loaded, we are left with little cap room for the final two spots. Ty Dillon is only a $5.00 salary cap hit. He looked okay at Atlanta earlier this season and has more upside than the other drivers with a low salary cap numbers. David Ragan has a 31st place average finish position over his last five Phoenix races. His lap-to-lap data is acceptable enough to warrant starting.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com uses a scoring system that combines laps led, fast laps, finish position and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us form starting the best five drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each drives and divides that number by the alary cap figure. Then end result is a number that indicates how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. Jimmie Johnson has the track data to consider starting him this week, but his Martinsville debacle has scared me from adding him to my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use his Phoenix numbers over his last five races to illustrate the formula.
JIMMIE JOHNSON AT PHOENIX
- Total laps led last five Phoenix races: 57 laps equals 5.70 Fantasy Live points
- Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
- Average finish position: 9th place equals 35 Fantasy Live points
- Start-to-finish differential: Negative equals (-2.00) Fantasy Live Points
- Total Fantasy Live points per race: 38.70
See this week’s fantasy live points per dollar numbers below with highlighted picks in bold. Good luck with your picks for Phoenix.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Kevin Harvick 3.17
- Kyle Busch 2.30
- Carl Edwards 2.21
- Brad Keselowski 1.91
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.79
- Jimmie Johnson 1.43
- Matt Kenseth 1.31
- Joey Logano 1.31
- Jeff Gordon 1.30
- Ryan Newman 1.11
- Clint Bowyer 0.73
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Denny Hamlin 1.79
- Greg Biffle 1.70
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.70
- Aric Almirola 1.37
- Kasey Kahne 1.09
- Tony Stewart 0.98
- Paul Menard 0.93
- Austin Dillon 0.93
- Kurt Busch 0.89
- Marcus Ambrose 0.85
- Jamie McMurray 0.81
- Martin Truex Jr. 0.76
- Kyle Larson 0.52
- Brian Vickers 0.45
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- AJ Allmendinger 1.61
- Casey Mears 1.42
- Justin Allgaier 1.18
- Danica Patrick 1.08
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- David Ragan 1.21
- David Gilliland 1.20
- Cole Whitt 0.71
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- JJ Yeley 3.52
- Michael Annett 1.84
- Landon Cassill 1.09
- Reed Sorensen 0.88
- Alex Bowman (-0.36)
- Ty Dillon