As a Fantasy NASCAR analyst, I am glad to be finished with a restrictor plate track and back to a more predictable track in Loudon. Hats off to you if you benefited from selecting Aric Almirola, Brian Vickers, and Casey Mears. For the rest of us, we saw our weekly lineup decimated by the two major incidents. New Hampshire provides us the opportunity to lick our wounds from Florida and start the second half of the NASCAR season on a positive note.
My preferred strategy for Nascar.com Fantasy Live is to pick my three favorite drivers, then find the best value with the remaining salary cap money. The driver with the most Fantasy Live points at New Hampshire since 2008 is Jimmie Johnson. Johnson’s value has dipped slightly after his Daytona wreck. Johnson is consistent at the track, averaging an eighth place finish over the last ten years. He has led laps in four of the last five summer races. Only an unexpected circumstance will keep the 48 team from running near the top this weekend.
Tony Stewart has led the most laps of any driver over the past five years in Loudon. Stewart was also involved in the Lap 21 wreck last week and should provide better value in New Hampshire as a result. Stewart has averaged a top ten finish and is the only driver to lead at least one lap in each of the last five summer races. Needing a win to make the chase, Stewart will drive aggressively for the next few weeks.
I was torn between Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, and Kurt Busch for the third spot. Kurt Busch has led the second-most laps since 2008, but has finished inconsistently over the last few years. I love Jeff Gordon’s consistency, but he has a higher price tag than Denny Hamlin. Hamlin has averaged a ninth-place finish over the last ten years. Hamlin was dominant in 2012, leading 193 laps on his way to victory. Hamlin should outperform his salary cap figure this week.
Deciding between the last two drivers is challenging because there was more cap room available than expected. Reed Sorenson has averaged a 21st place finish in two summer starts in Loudon. With only a $7 salary cap tag, his bargain value was too high to ignore. With $19.75 remaining, there are more options for the fifth spot than expected. Jeff Burton is racing this week for Michael Waltrip racing. With a 17th place average over the last five years, Burton should help your team with a modest cost of $15.25. My original choice was Burton, but had enough salary cap room for AJ Allmendinger. Allmendinger has averaged a 19th place finish since 2008 so he should be a valuable fifth starter for my team.
Our salary cap value formula basically determines average total number of fantasy live points over the past five summer New Hampshire races and divides that total by the salary cap figure provided by fantasy live on nascar.com. We can then determine how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
The Fantasy Live scoring system is a combination of laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential.
For additional clarification on our formula, please review Kasey Kahne’s details below:
KASEY KAHNE AT NEW HAMPSHIRE
- Total laps led at the last five summer New Hampshire races: 116 (23.2 per race = 11.2 points)
- Fast laps: cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
- Final position: 12th place average = 32 points
- Start to finish differential: Negative Six = (-6 points)
- Total points per race: 37.6
- Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $25
- Points ranking: 37.6 points/$25 = 1.50 points per fantasy dollar
For rookies with no history at the track, we will use the data from the 2014 to help you know how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. This week’s picks are in bold along with the fantasy points-per-dollar for all drivers.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Jimmie Johnson 2.28
- Jeff Gordon 1.71
- Matt Kenseth 1.51
- Kasey Kahne 1.50
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.49
- Kevin Harvick 1.33
- Joey Logano 1.33
- Clint Bowyer 1.25
- Kyle Busch 1.25
- Brad Keselowski 1.06
- Carl Edwards 0.98
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Tony Stewart 2.50
- Denny Hamlin 2.31
- Kurt Busch 1.76
- Greg Biffle 1.43
- Austin Dillon 1.38
- Aric Almirola 1.36
- Ryan Newman 1.28
- Kyle Larson 1.19
- Marcus Ambrose 1.14
- Martin Truex Jr. 1.13
- Brian Vickers 0.97
- Jamie McMurray 0.92
- Paul Menard 0.60
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- AJ Allmendinger 1.80
- Jeff Burton 1.51
- Justin Allgaier 1.35
- Casey Mears 0.59
- Danica Patrick 0.13
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-0.05)
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- David Gilliland 2.08
- David Ragan 1.85
- Cole Whitt 1.52
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Reed Sorenson 4.30
- JJ Yeley 2.46
- Landon Cassill 2.40
- Michael Annett 2.36
- Alex Bowman 1.71
- Ryan Truex 1.00
- Josh Wise 0.80
- Joe Nemecheck 0.35