The racing gods are on Brad Keselowski’s side this season. On an unpredictable restrictor plate track, Keselowski avoided elimination by winning in Alabama. We are now down to four races and eight drivers until the end of the 2014 season. We are also running out of time in Fantasy Racing and you need to be conservative if you are leading or take risks to catch up to the league leader. We are on a more predictable track in Martinsville and should be a welcome relief to those of us who take the time to analyze the numbers.
With the more predictable nature of Martinsville Speedway, the best strategy is to choose your three favorite drivers. The final two roster spots should be the best value drivers with the remaining salary cap. My first pick was recently eliminated from the championship and has dominating race statistics at the track. Jimmie Johnson had 15 Top Five finishes at Martinsville in his last 19 races. With 93% of his laps in the Top 15 and an average running position of 5.6 since 2005, Johnson is expected to run near the top. Short tracks produce more laps to lead, so there is a greater benefit to choose drivers with favorable running positions. Johnson is the best in the series in fast laps and laps led and should be an asset to your team this week.
The second choice in my lineup, Jeff Gordon, rivals his teammate’s success in Virginia. Gordon also has 15 Top Five finishes in his last 19 Martinsville races. Gordon is second to Johnson in lap-to-lap performance, laps led, fast laps, and average finish position since 2005. The biggest difference between the two drivers is that Gordon can still win the championship and has ben a more consistent driver in 2014.
My original third choice for my roster was Denny Hamlin because Hamlin was the third-best driver in all track statistics. After selecting my budget choices on my roster, I had enough cap space to upgrade to Brad Keselowski. Although he has not had dominating numbers at Martinsville, my addition to my roster is due to his success in the 2014 season. Keselowski has proven to be a force even on tracks where he is statistically average. I expect a solid run after he squeaked through to the next round.
These selections allowed little salary cap space for my last two roster spots. My expectations are low but should still maintain value due to the low salary cap number. Michael Annett finished in 31st place earlier this season at Martinsville. Landon Cassill has averaged a 27th place in his last five races. If both drivers duplicate their efforts, they should provide enough value to be worth a roster spot.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com has a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five races at Martinsville. Then, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how many points to expect from each driver. Denny Hamlin got bumped from my lineup in favor of Brad Keselowski. As a consolation prize, we will use his Martinsville numbers to further illustrate the formula.
DENNY HAMLIN AT MARTINSVILLE
- Laps Led Last Five Martinsville Races: 57 laps equals 5.7 points per race
- Fast Laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
- Average Finish Position: 16th place = 28 points per race
- Start to Finish Differential: Negative 14 = -14 points per race
- Total points per race: 19.70
- Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $23.50
- Fantasy Points Per Dollar: 19.7 divides by 23.50 equals 0.84 points per dollar
Please review the fantasy points per dollar for each driver below with this week’s recommendations highlighted in bold.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Jimmie Johnson 5.52
- Jeff Gordon 3.14
- Matt Kenseth 2.57
- Clint Bowyer 2.50
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.59
- Carl Edwards 1.32
- Brad Keselowski 1.26
- Kyle Busch 1.17
- Kevin Harvick 1.01
- Joey Logano 0.82
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Austin Dillon 2.23
- Greg Biffle 2.08
- Aric Almirola 1.94
- Marcus Ambrose 1.61
- Kurt Busch 1.23
- Brian Vickers 1.20
- Paul Menard 1.16
- Tony Stewart 1.06
- Kasey Kahne 0.94
- Jamie McMurray 0.85
- Martin Truex Jr. 0.85
- Denny Hamlin 0.84
- Ryan Newman 0.71
- Kyle Larson 0.13
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- AJ Allmendinger 2.35
- Danica Patrick 1.91
- Justin Allgaier 1.53
- Casey Mears 1.43
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.15
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- David Gilliland 1.92
- Cole Whitt 1.09
- David Ragan 0.30
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Landon Cassill 2.55
- Michael Annett 2.44
- Josh Wise 0.87
- Reed Sorenson 0.38
- Alex Bowman (-1.09)