NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Kansas Speedway, Hollywood Casino 400

NASCAR returns to Kansas for the first race of the Contender Round of the new playoff format. Twelve drivers begin their quest to be one of the eight drivers still standing after Talladega in three weeks. Earlier in the season, Kevin Harvick had the fastest car for most of the race. Jeff Gordon squeaked past him in the final laps for the win. There are five drivers who are the favorites this week: Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon. Kansas is generally a predictable track so I would suggest choosing your three favorite drivers from this list and filling in the final two spots with the best budget options available.

My first two choices for my roster have the most NASCAR Fantasy Live points in 2014, and their inclusion should not be considered surprising. Kevin Harvick had a dominant car earlier in the year with 119 laps led. Since 2005, Harvick has an average running position of 11.6 and spends 71% of his laps running in the Top 15. Harvick is third in laps led and fourth in fast laps. In the last two Kansas races, Harvick has led a combined total of 257 laps. I like his chances this week.

The second choice does not have a dominant track history at Kansas, but has been finishing in the Top Five in many races where he was not dominant. Brad Keselowski only has an average running position of 14th and has 64% of his laps in the Top 15. These numbers are tenth in the series at Kansas since 2005. While the numbers are not overly impressive, Keselowski has the fastest team in the series right not and will remain on my roster until he cools down.

Jimmie Johnson finished in the Top Ten in 12 of his last 13 races at Kansas. Due to his consistency, he is my choice in my Yahoo leagues. He has only led 85 laps over the last five races at Kansas. Due to the low quantity of laps led by Johnson, I am suggesting Matt Kenseth for the third roster spot by a narrow margin. Kenseth has the most laps led in the series over the last five races. With six Top Five finishes in his last thirteen Kansas races, Kenseth has shown his upside. He is a consistent option here too, as evidenced by 77% of his laps in the Top 15 and an average running position of 10.4 since 2005.

These three roster selections force us to go under $10.00 for the final two roster spots. Michael Annett had a 25th place finish earlier this year, and will provide value if he duplicates his efforts. Landon Cassill has a 31st place average. While neither average is overly impressive, they will provide enough value for their salary cap number. Timmy Hill could provide value for you at $5,00, but poses a risk of a 43rd place finish.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com has a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula simply calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points for each driver’s last five Kansas races. Next, we divide this number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure. The end result is a number that illustrates how many fantasy live points to expect from each salary cap dollar for every driver at the race. I may regret benching Jimmie Johnson, and I will use his Kansas numbers as a small consolation to his team.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT KANSAS

Laps led last five Kansas races: 85 equals 8.5 fantasy live points per race
Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
Average finish position: 6th place average equals 38 fantasy live points per race
Start-to-finish differential: Plus 6 equals 6 fantasy live points per race
Average points per race: 52.50
Fantasy Live Salary Cap figure: $27.75
Points per salary cap dollar: 52.50 divided by $27.75 equals 1.89 points per dollar

See the Fantasy Live points per dollar below for each driver other the last five Kansas races. This week’s recommended team is in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

Matt Kenseth 2.31
Kevin Harvick 2.29
Jimmie Johnson 1.89
Jeff Gordon 1.73
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.56
Brad Keselowski 1.56
Carl Edwards 1.44
Clint Bowyer 0.98
Joey Logano 0.71
Kyle Busch 0.36

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

Martin Truex Jr. 2.87
Kasey Kahne 1.93
Aric Almirola 1.69
Paul Menard 1.56
Tony Stewart 1.54
Denny Hamlin 1.49
Jamie McMurray 1.22
Austin Dillon 1.19
Greg Biffle 1.15
Kyle Larson 1.10
Kurt Busch 1.09
Marcus Ambrose 0.95
Ryan Newman 0.40
Brian Vickers 0.35

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

Casey Mears 1.09
Danica Patrick 1.06
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.64
AJ Allmendinger 0.43
Justin Allgaier (-1.00)

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

Cole Whitt 1.81
David Ragan 1.48
David Gilliland 0.97

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

Timmy Hill 4.60
Michael Annett 3.20
Landon Cassill 2.40
Josh Wise 1.66
Reed Sorenson 1.11
Alex Bowman 0.82