The unpredictable nature of Talladega took a heavy toll on last week’s salary cap picks for Talladega Superspeedway. Four of the five choices did not finish due to accidents and mechanical difficulties. Sometimes all the data points to an expected outcome, and the results are significantly different than expected. This reality is what makes us love and hate fantasy racing.
The results from Kansas will likely improve from last week as Kansas is one of the more predictable races in the NASCAR schedule.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
NASCAR.com fantasy rankings use a salary cap formula that limits the quality of drivers than you can pick each week. The point total combines the laps led, fast laps, differential between start and finish, and final standings to determine the winner. The formula used in this article uses the total points earned by a driver divided by his or her salary cap figure. The end result is a number that determines the total number of points to expect for each fantasy dollar.
Though fast laps information is available, the fast lap data is not used for this article because the data cannot be calculated into the salary cap point format with 100% accuracy.
MATT KENSETH AT KANSAS
Matt Kenseth’s data from this week can help provide you with a clearer picture on how this formula works below.
- Matt Kenseth total laps led last 3 spring races: 165
- Laps led per race: 55
- Nascar.com laps led points per race: 27.5 (1 point for every 2 laps led)
- Starting position to finish position differential: 9
- Average finish: 3rd place (41 points)
- Total points per race: 77.5
- Nascar.com salary cap value: $28.25
- Kansas points per salary cap dollar: 77.5/28.25 = 2.74 points per dollar
KANSAS SPEEDWAY SALARY CAP DARKHORSE
Of the major drivers, the one with the highest points per fantasy dollar is Martin Truex Jr. with 3.28. With 219 laps led over the last two years, Martin has experienced success at this type of track. The general inconsistency of the Furniture Row team is cause for concern, but the upside makes Martin Truex Jr. a viable option.
THE MORE CONSISTENT DRIVERS
Matt Kenseth (see statistical details above) has averaged a top four finish at Kansas over the last three spring races. Jimmie Johnson has been nearly as consistent here without as many laps led. Kansas could be the track where the 48 car leads half the race on its way to victory. There seems to be a hex over this team in 2014, which may be the direct result of the overplayed Lowe’s “boom confetti” commercial. Hopefully, they shake off the bad luck soon.
Other drivers with more than two points per dollar include Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Brad Keselowski. Feel free to use any of these drivers as your picks.
With results at this track leaning towards predictable finishes, the value choices at the bottom of the salary cap are slim. Reed Sorensen passed 14 cars last race and has the highest points per dollar of any driver this week (4.44). Justin Allgaier has been emerging as the third-best rookie over the last few weeks. With 1.6 points per fantasy dollar in 2014, he has better value in salary cap terms than his rookie counterparts Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson.
Best Value Picks
- Reed Sorensen 4.44 (points per fantasy dollar)
- Martin Treux Jr. 3.28
- Matt Kenseth 2.74
- Denny Hamlin 2.65
- Jimmie Johnson 2.19
- Brad Keselowski 2.18
- Josh Wise 2.13
- Kurt Busch 2.12
Worst Value Picks
- Joe Nemecheck (-0.22) (points per fantasy dollar)
- AJ Allmendinger (-0.05)
- Joey Logano 0.11
- Brian Vickers 0.32
- Kyle Busch 0.60
- Casey Mears 0.74
- Clint Bowyer 0.77
Notable Drivers
- Kasey Kahne 1.82 (points per fantasy dollar)
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.73
- Jeff Gordon 1.69
- Tony Stewart 1.61
- Carl Edwards 1.56
- Greg Biffle 1.53
- Aric Almirola 1.38
- Kevin Harvick 1.31
- Jamie McMurray 1.30
- Paul Menard 1.13
- Ryan Newman 0.97
MY RECOMMENDED STARTERS FOR KANSAS SPEEDWAY
- Matt Kenseth $28.25
- Jimmie Johnson $27.25
- Martin Truex Jr. $21.50
- Justin Allgaier $16.25
- Reed Sorensen $6.75
3 replies on “NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Kansas Speedway, 5-Hour Energy 400”
Ryan Blaney is also worth a look if Nascar.com gives him a value later this week.
Ryan Blaney coming in @ $7.50, has a Penske engine, and is a legitimate sleeper. These picks will get you under $100
Jimmie Johnson
Matt Kenseth
Kevin Harvick
Reed Sorensen
Ryan Blaney
With 3 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, and a win in 11 starts at Kansas plus a win at Talladega last week, Denny Hamlin has to be seen as a possible option. Flex the value of the team with Reed Sorensen and Ryan Truex to bring in three heavy hitters alongside two sleepers. Subject to change after qualifying, but here’s my picks, currently sitting at $92.75 in value:
Matt Kenseth ($28.25)
Jimmie Johnson ($27.25)
Denny Hamlin ($23.00)
Reed Sorensen ($6.75)
Ryan Blaney ($7.50)