NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Indianapolis, Crown Royal 400

After a week away from fantasy racing, we return to Indianapolis this weekend. There are only a handful of races remaining until the Chase begins, and the pressure is growing for teams who have not yet won a race in 2014. For our fantasy racing leagues, the next few weeks will make or break our runs for our league championship. Indianapolis has helped some of the top drivers, but there has not been a dominant driver from year-to-year here. This translates to an opportunity to gain or lose fantasy points this week.

My Fantasy NASCAR strategy for salary cap racing is to pick my three favorite drivers for the race, and then choose the best drivers with the remaining salary cap money. I choose this strategy because fantasy live on nascar.com rewards more points for laps led and fast laps. Because of the scoring system, choosing five average drivers will not be the path to victory. Once we apply the points per dollar formula, the results will show the best picks are the top drivers and the bottom feeders.

The next step is to determine the drivers with the highest likelihood for success at the track. One of the statistics to review is the total number of laps led. I look at total laps led at a given track over a five-year time span along with the total number of races that the driver has led a lap. I am more impressed with Brad Keselowski leading a total of 44 laps in three different Indianapolis races than Ryan Newman leading 45 laps in only one race because Keselowski shows he can run near the top on a year-to-year basis. When we combine this data with the average final position, we will get a clear idea who is the most likely to succeed in a given week. Beyond historical data, taking into account this year’s performance as a whole by each driver is an important factor to consider.

The driver with the best statistical probability for success this week is Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has led the second-most laps of any driver in Indianapolis over the last five years with 198. He is also the only driver to lead a lap in each of the last five races. All statistics were showing Johnson as a favorite in New Hampshire, but a cut tire became a death sentence to all who started him.

The second driver on my team is Tony Stewart. Stewart has the best average finish position over the last ten years. Although he has only lead twelve laps over the last five years, Stewart also has the highest fantasy points per dollar from the top drivers over the same time span. After some deliberation, Jeff Gordon is the narrow choice for the third spot over Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Greg Biffle. Gordon has an eighth place average over a ten-year span and is tied for third-most saps led since 2009 with 48 laps. Biffle has historically been successful in Indianapolis, but his team has been average for most of 2014. Harvick and Keselowski could easily win, but I simply felt more comfortable picking Gordon.

Juan Pablo Montoya has led the most laps of any Indianapolis driver over the last five years. His average finish is only 20th place, but is worth a pick due to a low price tag of $10.25. The last pick was a toss-up between Landon Cassill and Reed Sorenson. Ultimately, I picked Cassill because he has led a lap in three of the last five years. He only has four total laps led so temper your expectations for a top finish. If he can match his 29th place average finish, he will be a valuable selection.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com combines the laps led, fast laps, final position, and start-to-finish differential in their scoring system. With a salary cap, the format limits the quality of drivers you can choose for your team. The formula used in this article basically tallies the average points accumulated over the last five years for each driver and divides that figure by their salary cap number. The end result is a number that will provide us with an idea how many points to expect from each salary cap dollar.

For further clarification, please review the details for Jamie McMurray below at Indianapolis:

JAMIE MCMURRAY AT INDIANAPOLIS

• Average final position last five years: 12th place = 32 points
• Start-to-finish differential: Plus 3 = 3 points
• Total laps led: 21 = 2.1 fantasy points per week
• Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
• Total Points per race; 37.1
• Nascar.com salary cap figure: $22.75
• Fantasy Points per dollar 37.1/22.75 = 1.63 points per fantasy dollar

For rookies without a history at the track, we will use their 2014 numbers for all races so we have an idea what to expect from them. See this week’s fantasy points per dollar below for each driver with this weeks picks in bold:

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

• Jimmie Johnson 1.87
• Kevin Harvick 1.67
• Kasey Kahne 1.55
• Jeff Gordon 1.49
• Kyle Busch 1.42
• Clint Bowyer 1.32
• Brad Keselowski 1.20
• Matt Kenseth 1.19
• Carl Edwards 1.06
• Joey Logano 1.00
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.89
• Austin Dillon 0.57

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

• Tony Stewart 2.18
• Greg Biffle 1.99
• Brian Vickers 1.95
• Paul Menard 1.64
• Jamie McMurray 1.63
• Ryan Newman 1.63
• Martin Truex Jr. 1.49
• Kyle Larson 1.36
• Aric Almirola 0.99
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.95
• Marcus Ambrose 0.91
• Kurt Busch 0.67
• Denny Hamlin 0.63

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

• Justin Allgaier 1.25
• AJ Allmendinger 1.22
• Danica Patrick 1.10
• Casey Mears 0.70

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

• Juan Pablo Montoya 2.96
• David Ragan 1.92
• Cole Whitt 1.62
• David Gilliland 1.53
• Trevor Bayne 1.47

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

• Reed Sorenson 2.43
• Landon Cassill 2.19
• Michael Annett 2.15
• Ryan Truex 1.03