We saw some playoff contenders with poor finishes last week at Kansas. Kansas is usually a predictable race, and those of us who selected Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski, or Dale Earnhardt Jr. are reeling from last week’s picks. This week in North Carolina, we see a track where there is not a dominant driver. Instead, there is a pool of about a dozen racers who have a clear shot at success. The next two weeks, we will see some exciting races with high stakes and some separation in our fantasy leagues.
My first roster pick has already qualified for the next round of the playoffs. With the success of the Penske tandem this season, I want to roster one Penske driver if practical. Although his lap-to-lap performance is not excellent, Logano has the second-best average finish position in the series. With 58% of his laps in the Top 15 since 2005, Logano is eighth in the series in lap-to-lap performance. Based on his 2014 season, Logano should help my team this week.
The second pick on my roster performs better at Charlotte than any other track in the series and has the best average finish position in the series since 2005. Kasey Kahne has 9 Top 5 finishes in his last 19 Charlotte races. Kahne is second in the series in laps led and fast laps during this time span. Over the past five races, Kahne has the most laps led of any driver in the series. Kahne’s biggest drawback is that he did not lead any laps earlier in the year.
Jimmie Johnson won the Charlotte race earlier this year and has great track performance. However, he has disappointed my team a few times this year, and I am admittedly biased against him for at least a couple of weeks. Feel free to choose Johnson, but the third roster spot for my team will be Matt Kenseth. Although winless in 2014, Kenseth has been one of the best drivers in 2014. Matt Kenseth ranks between fourth and sixth in all statistical categories at the track. Kenseth has 10 Top Ten finishes in his last 19 races at the track.
With limited salary cap space for the remaining two roster spots, we needed to find a couple of budget drivers. I am glad to have researched this article because I discovered Trevor Bayne as an entered driver. Trevor Bayne maintains a 23rd place average at the track. He is worth his $11.75 price tag. Michael Annett, with a 28th place finish earlier this year, is the choice for the fifth roster spot.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers ever week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of points for the last five Charlotte races and divides this number by the salary cap figure for each driver. The end result is a number that helps predicts how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. I suggested Keselowski last week, and he rewarded my insight by finishing dead last in fantasy live points. As a result, I chose Logano over him this week. Keselowski can win at any track this year. As a consolation prize, I will use Keselowski’s Charlotte numbers to further illustrate our formula.
BRAD KESELOWSKI AT CHARLOTTE
- Total laps led last five Charlotte races: 197 laps equals 19.7 fantasy live points per race
- Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
- Average finish position: 12th place equals 32 fantasy live points per race
- Start-to-finish differential: Plus 5 equals 5 fantasy live points per race
- Total fantasy live points per Charlotte race: 56.7
- Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $28.00
- Points per Salary Cap Dollar: 56.7 / $28.00 equals 2.03 fantasy points per dollar
See this week’s fantasy live points per dollar numbers below with highlighted picks in bold. Good luck with your picks in Charlotte.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Jimmie Johnson 2.44
- Brad Keselowski 2.03
- Kevin Harvick 1.98
- Matt Kenseth 1.91
- Carl Edwards 1.87
- Kyle Busch 1.57
- Ryan Newman 1.41
- Clint Bowyer 1.27
- Jeff Gordon 1.26
- Joey Logano 1.21
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.68
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Kasey Kahne 3.28
- Austin Dillon 2.07
- Greg Biffle 2.06
- Denny Hamlin 1.87
- Tony Stewart 1.85
- Jamie McMurray 1.69
- Brian Vickers 1.54
- Martin Truex Jr. 1.30
- Paul Menard 1.18
- Kurt Busch 0.97
- Aric Almirola 0.86
- Marcus Ambrose 0.63
- Kyle Larson 0.57
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.21
- Casey Mears 1.14
- AJ Allmendinger 0.87
- Danica Patrick 0.68
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- Trevor Bayne 1.87
- David Gilliland 1.53
- David Ragan 1.07
- Cole Whitt 0.47
- Justin Allgaier (-0.88)
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Michael Annett 3.09
- Landon Cassill 2.28
- David Stremme 1.57
- Josh Wise 1.14
- Michael McDowell 0.92
- Alex Bowman 0.82
- Reed Sorenson 0.53
- Ryan Truex 0.48
One reply on “NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Charlotte Motor Speedway, Bank of America 500”
It helps when my suggestions qualify for the race. Sub Michael Annett and DO NOT start Trevor Bayne