We are already a third of the way through the NASCAR season. With a week away from Fantasy Live for the All Star Race, this is a good week to review the first 11 races of the season.
Our weekly Fantasy Live article often focuses on each driver’s performance at the weekly track, but taking into account the 2015 results is also important. With eleven races into the season, we now have enough data where we can see which drivers are providing the best value in each group.
Not that this is a surprise to anyone this year, but the driver who has provided the most fantasy live value per salary cap dollar is Kevin Harvick. In eleven races in 2015, Kevin Harvick has spent 92% of his laps in the top-15. He will continue to be the among the favorites every week. With a series-best 4.87 per Fantasy Live dollar, Harvick is a must start every week.
Since returning from his early suspension, Kurt Busch has been one of the top drivers in the series. He is competing well in tracks where he usually struggles. One more solid finish and Kurt Busch will graduate to the top tier of drivers. With three less starts than the other drivers, Kurt Busch is second in total laps led and has spent 85% of his laps running in the top-15. He should produce at a level that you would expect Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano or Brad Keselowski.
The third tier has proven to be the least productive group. With a couple exceptions (see Allmendinger expanded driver averages at Watkins Glen), I would not roster any driver with a price range between $15.00 to $20.00. The least valuable driver in the series, Tony Stewart, is in this tier. With 0.38 points per dollar and an average finish position of 28th place, Tony Stewart cannot be considered for your roster. I am expecting his numbers to improve during the summer months as he traditionally performs better after Memorial Day.
While compiling this article, I was surprised to see the value that David Gilliland has provided this season. He is not flashy, as evidenced by his 24th place average. One of the areas where Gilliland is generated points is start-to-finish differential. With a plus nine in this category, Gilliland earns enough points to be worth his $10.75 salary cap value. I will be more mindful of the #38 car going forward.
In the bottom drivers, Matt DiBenedetto has quietly become a valuable option. He will start at 40th place and finish 34th on most tracks. The 15 Fantasy Live points generated provides value for your roster. Due to his success, his salary cap value is starting to clim a little so he may provide less value as the season progresses. Eighty percent of regular drivers with a salary cap figure are earning two points per fantasy dollar making the bottom drivers the safest ones to pick. The value at the bottom is one of the reasons I suggest front-loading your lineup every week.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, fantasy live uses a salary cap format. Our formula simply calculates the average number of points earned by each driver for the last five races at a track. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap number to determine the value of each driver. The numbers below reflect the value for each driver for the eleven 2015 races. Enjoy your week’s rest from Fantasy NASCAR. We will have a Charlotte article posted later this week.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Kevin Harvick 4.87
- Jimmie Johnson 2.80
- Joey Logano 2.34
- Brad Keselowski 1.97
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.92
- Matt Kenseth 1.76
- Denny Hamlin 1.60
- Jeff Gordon 1.51
- Jamie McMurray 1.40
- Kyle Larson 1.24
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Kurt Busch 3.88
- Martin Truex Jr. 2.62
- Aric Almirola 1.99
- Ryan Newman 1.59
- Kasey Kahne 1.59
- Clint Bowyer 1.44
- Carl Edwards 1.44
- Paul Menard 1.41
- Greg Biffle 1.19
- Austin Dillon 1.19
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- AJ Allmendinger 1.68
- Sam Hornish Jr. 1.61
- Tony Stewart 0.38
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- David Gilliland 3.05
- Danica Patrick 2.35
- Trevor Bayne 2.13
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.11
- Justin Allgaier 1.95
- David Ragan 1.49
- Ryan Blaney 0.77
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Matt DiBenedetto 3.78
- Alex Bowman 2.85
- Cole Whitt 2.72
- Brett Moffitt 2.69
- JJ Yeley 2.66
- Michael Annett 2.62
- Josh Wise 2.44
- Brendan Gaughan 2.13
- Michael McDowell 2.02
- Landon Cassill 1.59
- Jeb Burton 1.42