Category: Fantasy NASCAR

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Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Kansas Speedway, 5-Hour ENERGY 400

Matt Kenseth checkered flag kansas

Congratulations goes out to Denny Hamlin who picked up his first victory of the season by avoiding the big wreck that always seems to happen in the restrictor plate races. Denny ended up in the right lane late in the race and got excellent drafting help in passing Kevin Harvick after a late race restart and he held onto the lead as the caution came out on the last lap for debris on the track. That should be enough to propel him into the Chase.

This week the series heads to Kansas City, KS for the running of the 5-Hour Energy 400. Kansas Speedway is another of the mile and a half tracks on the circuit that make up the majority of schedule. I just hope that there aren’t a lot of tire issues again this weekend.

5-HOUR ENERGY 400

Matt Kenseth: I am picking Matt to get his first win of the season this week at Kansas. Matt has won two of the last three races at Kansas and has finished no worse than eleventh in his last seven starts there. They would like nothing better than to get their first win of the season and get the monkey off their backs and gain a spot in the Chase.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has finished in the top ten in ten straight races at Kansas including two victories during that stretch. This is another team that is still looking for their first win of the season so they can lock up a spot in the Chase themselves. I think this could be an all out battle between two of last seasons best drivers with a spot in the Chase up for grabs.

Greg Biffle: Greg came close to getting his first win of the season last Sunday at Talladega and he has always been very good at Kansas. He has won twice here and has finished in the top five in seven of his fifteen starts. This is the type of track that Greg excels on and this weekend should be no different.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff won the first two races ever run at Kansas Speedway. Even though he hasn’t won here since then he has finished in the top five in nine of his sixteen starts at this track. Jeff currently sits in the top spot in the standings, but he would really like to get his first victory of the season and get his spot in the Chase. There are only sixteen races left until the Chase starts and a lot of drivers who are looking for their first win yet.

Carl Edwards: Carl has already won a race this season, but he would like to get his second win before the Chase starts too. Although he has never won a race here he has finished in the top ten in nine of his thirteen starts at this track. I think that the Roush/Fenway engines are some of the best out there this season and can help these drivers get to victory lane.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won the race here last fall and has looked very good every week this season. As I have said before, if it weren’t for a lot of mechanical failures early this season, Kevin would probably have more than two wins and be sitting on top of the standings right now. He also has seven top ten finishes in his sixteen starts at this track.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has never won at Kansas yet, but he has finished in the top ten in seven of his fifteen career starts here. This team has slipped a little bit lately, but this is the type of track where they can get back into victory lane and get back on track like they were at the beginning of the season. Dale has been very good all year at this type of track.

Brad Keselowski: Brad took the blame for a wreck last weekend at Talladega that took out many of the big name drivers. This weekend he will try to redeem himself and should be able to do just that. Both of the Penske teams have been very fast in qualifying all season long and I look for them to continue qualifying well this week also.

Joey Logano: Joey is the other Penske driver that has started towards the front of the field all season long. He also has two wins to go along with his good starting positions and could very easily get his third win of the season this weekend at Kansas Speedway.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR KANSAS SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Matt Kenseth
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Greg Biffle
  • Joey Logano
  • Carl Edwards

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT KANSAS SPEEDWAY

  1. Matt Kenseth
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Greg Biffle
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Martin Truex Jr.

Stay Away From: Kyle Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Talladega Superspeedway, Aaron’s 499

NASCAR 2013 Talladega Crash Greg Biffle and Kyle Busch

Sunday’s race in Talladega will be hard-pressed to top a Richmond track that had a fantastic finish accompanied by hot tempers and one black eye!

Last week’s picks for Richmond yielded 199 points (1.99 points per fantasy dollar). The final standings were decent; however, my choices did not lead enough laps to win the league. This week’s most valuable driver is Reed Sorensen, even though his data is only from one race (5.33 points per dollar). He passed thirty cars for an 11th place finish in his only spring race at the track. Drivers with five races at the track with the most value were David Gilliland and David Ragan. Both drivers had consistent success at the track.

From the perspective of Fantasy Nascar advice, the Alabama track is nearly impossible to predict. Drivers quickly move to the front and back of the field. All we can do is make the best picks that we can hoping the crashes miss our choices, and they find the right line when the race comes to a close.

With the new playoff format, this will be a highly competitive race that offers a potential playoff spot to teams that usually do not run at the top of the field.

TALLADEGA IS UNPREDICTABLE, BUT…

Even with the unpredictable nature of restrictor plate tracks, some drivers have better performances at Talladega than others.

The most consistent driver over the last ten years is Dale Earnhardt Jr. Over the last ten spring races, Dale has an average finish of eleventh. Matt Kenseth is also a solid option and has led the most laps over the last five years.

Other drivers with recent success at the track include Kurt Busch, Dave Ragan, and Clint Bowyer.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Nascar.com uses a salary cap format, which limits you from selecting all of the top drivers.

Using a combination of final race standing, fast laps, laps led, and differential from start to finish, this format forces uses to find the diamonds in the rough each week. In order to discover the value drivers, this article looks at the total points accumulated by each driver over their last five spring races at Talladega.

The only data point that will not be included is the fast laps because I cannot promise 100% accuracy of the data.

Basically, the formula that is used is simply dividing the average points accumulated per week for each driver divided by their salary cap number listed on www.nascar.com. The end result is the total number of points earned per salary cap dollar.

This data below from Matt Kenseth’s last five spring Talladega races should help.

MATT KENSETH AT TALLADEGA

  • Matt Kenseth Total number of laps led last five years: 234 (46.8 per race average)
  • Matt Kenseth Average lap points on nascar.com format (1 point/2 laps led): 23.4 per race
  • Matt Kenseth Average point differential: (-7)
  • Matt Kenseth Average finish: 18th (26 fantasy points)
  • Current Matt Kenseth salary on www.nascar.com: 28.25
  • Matt Kenseth’s Fantasy NASCAR Live points per dollar: 42.4/28.25 = 1.5 points per fantasy dollar

POINTS PER FANTASY DOLLAR FOR TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

In order to incorporate the rookies with no history at Talladega, my formula is using their results for the 2014 season instead of the track data. Another suggestion for success this week is to select drivers who qualify at the back of the field. Their potential to move up the field is very high with restrictor plates and well worth the risk for reliable drivers.

Best Value Picks

  • Reed Sorensen 5.33 (points per fantasy dollar)
  • JJ Yeley 3.71
  • David Ragan 3.43
  • David Gilliland 3.31
  • Michael McDowell 2.67
  • Terry Labonte 2.27
  • Michael Waltrip 2.05

Notable Rookies

  • Michael Annett 3.2 (points per fantasy dollar)
  • Justin Allgaier 3.13
  • Alex Bowman 2.81
  • Cole Whitt 2.81
  • Austin Dillon 2.67
  • Kyle Larson 2.57
  • Brian Scott 2.4

Notable Drivers

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.88 (points per fantasy dollar)
  • Kurt Busch 1.59
  • Matt Kenseth 1.5
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.5
  • Jamie McMurray 1.39
  • Clint Bowyer 1.34
  • Tony Stewart 1.15
  • Brad Keselowski 1.12
  • Kyle Bush 1.11
  • Denny Hamlin 1.05
  • Carl Edwards 0.98
  • Kevin Harvick 0.87
  • Joey Logano 0.86
  • Jimmie Johnson 0.78
  • Jeff Gordon 0.32

MY RECOMMENDED STARTERS FOR TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

Based on my formula for salary cap drivers here is my line-up for this week’s race at Talladega. My total salary cap used is $100.00

  1. Kurt Busch $27.25
  2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. $27.25
  3. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $21.25
  4. David Gilliland $13.00
  5. David Ragan $11.25
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Talladega Superspeedway, Aaron’s 499

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Talladega Aarons 499 Rain Delay

Congratulations to Joey Logano who picked up his second victory of the season on Saturday night at Richmond. Now he, along with Kevin Harvick both are definitely in the Chase field and can relax a little bit for now. There are still seventeen more races before the start of the Chase so, those drivers without a victory yet this year still have time to pick up that victory to help them into the Chase field.

AARON’S 499

This week the series heads to Talladega Superspeedway for the running of the Aaron’s 499. This is the second restrictor plate race of the season and is one of the races that any driver that makes the field can take the checkered flag and secure a spot in the Chase. What I mean is that every driver and team is on equal footing when it comes to restrictor plate racing. The individual equipment doesn’t matter as much as who you draft with to get you to the front and hopefully keep you there.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale is my pick to win his second race of the season at Talladega. This team has been very consistent week in and week out this year and Dale is always very good at Talladega. He seems to know who he can draft with and how to draft with them that he is always in the mix at the end of the race if he can stay out of a wreck early in the day. He has five career victories at this track and finished second here last fall.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff is the only active driver with more career victories than Dale Earnhardt Jr. with a total of six wins here. This team has also been extremely consistent on a weekly basis this year and Jeff knows how to draft with the best of them. The main thing for every team this week is to stay out of trouble until the end of the race and then you have a shot at the win.

Matt Kenseth: Matt is still looking for his first victory of the season and has been very good at Talladega. He has lead a lot of laps during his last eight starts here and won the fall race back in 2012. I look for Matt to have a car capable of moving up in the pack whenever he wants to if he finds a drafting partner that is willing to race early on. If not, he will be content to ride along at the back of the pack until it is go time late in the race.

Kyle Busch: Although he hasn’t lead a lot of laps during the last five races here, Kyle has three top five finishes in the last four races here. This is the type of track where a driver doesn’t care how many laps he leads, but more importantly which lap he leads. Kyle needs to stay patient early in the race and not take any foolish chances that might cause a big wreck. You can’t win if you aren’t running at the end.

David Ragan: David proved that David can beat Goliath here last season as he won this race for a minimally funded team. He has also shown that this wasn’t a fluke as he is the only driver that has finished in the top ten at Talladega in each of the last four races. He has done this by staying out of trouble and then teaming up with somebody late in the race to make a push for the victory. This just goes to show that you need a partner more than money to win this race.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie always seems to lead laps at Talladega. As a matter of fact, he has lead laps in twenty-two of his twenty-four career starts at this track including two races where he lead the final lap. Jimmie is also looking for his first victory of the season and will do whatever it takes to push his way to the front at the end of this week’s race also.

Brad Keselowski: Brad and Matt Kenseth had a small difference of opinion last week late in the race at Richmond. Both of these drivers need to put that incident behind them because there is no room for error or letting your emotions get the best of you this weekend at Talladega. You need all of the help you can get to win this race and it can come from your worst enemy if that’s the way it needs to be. Brad will find a drafting partner during this race, but I doubt if it will be Matt.

Greg Biffle: Greg has had good cars at Talladega recently and can usually find his way to the front during the race. It seems like the Roush/Fenway drivers work well together in the draft and if they can find each other late in the race one of them will have a shot at winning the race. Greg works well with both Carl Edwards and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and doesn’t seem to mind doing the pushing for one of his teammates either.

Kevin Harvick: This will be Kevin’s second restrictor plate race since moving over to Stewart/Haas Racing this season. They have struggled with mechanical issues in quite a few races this year that could be their biggest issue this week. You can’t afford to have the smallest problem during a restrictor plate race or you will find yourself out of the draft and there is no way you can catch back up.

Clint Bowyer: Clint is another driver that always seems to find someone he drafts well together with. I can see him teaming up with someone like Michael Waltrip, who knows how to win at restrictor plate tracks. They might just ride around at the back of the pack early in the race trying to stay out of the big wreck, but look for them to make a run to the front later and have a shot at the victory.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  • Jeff Gordon

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Jamie McMurray
  • David Ragan
  • Aric Almirola
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Michael Waltrip
  • Trevor Bayne

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

  1. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  2. Jeff Gordon
  3. Matt Kenseth
  4. Jimmie Johnson
  5. Kyle Busch

Dark Horse: Michael Waltrip

Stay Away From: Tony Stewart

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Richmond International Raceway, Toyota Owners 400

Jimmie Johnson, driver of the #48 Lowe's Dover White Chevrolet, and Tony Stewart, driver of the #14 Rush Truck Centers/Mobil 1 Chevrolet, spin after an on track incident during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway

After an Easter weekend off the racetrack, the NASCAR drivers return to the short track at Richmond. There will not be a shortage of paint transfers, and the end result will be some exciting racing in Virginia.

Richmond will be the first race where I will begin to write articles on salary cap racing. Based on the scoring and salary cap data from www.nascar.com, this article will focus on the best value picks for your weekly salary cap leagues.

SALARY CAP LEAGUES

The rankings that are used are the results from the spring race over the last five years. The salary cap league combines:

  • Points from the race results
  • Rank differential between the beginning of the race and the end
  • Laps led
  • Top lap speeds for the race

Drivers perform differently on tracks at different times of the year. As a result, I chose to only use the data for the spring race. The formula being used in this article is simply the average points per race over the last five years divided by the salary cap amount for the driver.

The final result is the average points per race over the last five years divided by the salary cap figure. The only inaccessible data was the top laps at the track and is not used in this formula.

MATT KENSETH AT RICHMOND (EXAMPLE)

  • Matt Kenseth Average finish over the last five races: 13th place (31 fantasy points)
  • Matt Kenseth Average Start/Finish Differential last five races: (10 places = 10 fantasy points)
  • Matt Kenseth Total Laps led over the last five years: 156 (156/five races = 31.8 laps per race/2 = 15.6 points per race)
  • Matt Kenseth total points last five races: 57
  • Current Matt Kenseth salary on www.nascar.com: 28.25
  • Fantasy Nascar points per salary cap dollar for Matt Kenseth: 2.02

BEST AND WORST SALARY CAP PICKS FOR RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

Applying this formula for all 43 drivers at Richmond had some predictable results accompanied with some surprises value picks. Most of the rookies do not have any historical data at the track. For comparison’s sake, we are using each rookie’s average point total per race for the 2014 season.

Best Picks

  • Kyle Busch 3.71 fantasy points per dollar ($27.75)
  • Landon Cassill 3.61 ($7.75)
  • Dave Reutimann 3.42 ($5.25)
  • Reed Sorensen 3.41 ($6.75)
  • Dave Ragan 2,75 ($11.25)
  • Denny Hamlin 2.62 ($23.25)
  • Carl Edwards 2.48 ($27)
  • Tony Stewart 2.41 ($23.25)

Worst Picks

  • Joe Nemechek -1.15 fantasy points per dollar ($9.50)
  • Michael McDowell -0.57 ($5.25)
  • Brad Keselowski 0.42 ($25.75)
  • Parker Kligerman 0.75 ($9.50)
  • Ryan Truex 0.93 ($10.75)
  • Casey Mears 0.97 ($18.50)

Other Notables

  • Matt Kenseth 2.02 fantasy points per dollar
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.32
  • Jeff Gordon 1.45
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.06
  • Kevin Harvick 1.16
  • Joey Logano 1.13
  • Kasey Kahne 1.07
  • Kurt Busch 1.22
  • Ryan Newman 1.53
  • Kyle Larson 1.35
  • Austin Dillon 1.59

MY RECOMMENDED STARTERS FOR RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

  1. Kyle Busch $27.75
  2. Carl Edwards $27
  3. Denny Hamlin $23.25
  4. Dave Ragan $11.25
  5. Landon Cassill $7.75

Total Salary Cap Used: $97

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Richmond International Raceway, Toyota Owners 400

kevin-harvick wins richmond 2013

It took eight races, but we finally have our first multi-race winner of the season. Congratulations to Kevin Harvick, who dominated most of the night at Darlington and then fought his way back to the lead with just over one lap left, passing Dale Earnhardt Jr. and taking the checkered flag for the second time this season. It seemed like a long time between wins for this team because of all the mechanical issues they have faced so far this season and now they should be really locked into the Chase.

TOYOTA OWNERS 400

The series will take a week off to observe the Easter holiday weekend and then they will be back to short tracking as they head to Richmond, VA for the running of the Toyota Owners 400. Richmond International Raceway is a 3/4-mile D-shaped asphalt race track. Once again there will be a narrow pit road with stalls all the way around the track. Pit stops here can be just as exciting as the racing itself.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has won four of the past five spring races at Richmond and that is why I am picking him to get his second win of the season. He has lead 586 laps during the past five spring races and has finished in the top five in eight of his nine spring starts at this track. Way too consistent to not have him on your team for this race.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has had a very good season so far, but he is still looking for his first win of the year. He has always been very good at Richmond and has finished in the top ten here in ten of his last fourteen starts. This team is going to break into the win column very soon and this might be the race where they get the job done.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has lead 1,390 laps at Richmond in his fifteen career starts there. He looked very good at the beginning of this season, but lately the team hasn’t made the correct adjustments to the car to keep up with the track and Denny has been caught for speeding on pit road each of the past two races. You can’t make mistakes like these when you are racing against the best drivers in the world.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale continues to impress this season, having great runs at tracks he never excelled at in the past. This team looks like a championship contender for the first time in many years. Dale has also been very good at Richmond during his career with three wins to his credit. Look for Junior to come away with another great finish from this track.

Tony Stewart: Tony has had his ups and downs this season and Richmond might be the cure for what is ailing this team. Tony has three wins and four runner-up finishes at this track including four top ten finishes in his last five starts here. I think there is a lot of pressure on Tony being a part owner of four Sprint Cup cars and he is still recovering from the broken leg he sustained last season. When all is said and done this team will win more than one race before the Chase.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won this race last season and has won three races overall at this track during his career. If this team can stay away from the mechanical issues they had early this season, I think they will be contenders on a weekly basis and will win more races before the start of the Chase. Right now I think they are the team to beat this year, but it is early yet.

Ryan Newman: Ryan has been very impressive this year in his own right. He has one win at this track and has finished in the top ten in more than half of his starts here. They are not afraid to take a gamble with two tire stops and it has improved their track position all year and given them chances to win races. I think he is on a team where he can use his engineering degree to help them get better every week.

Carl Edwards: Carl really struggled last weekend at Darlington, but they already have a win under their belt this year and might just be trying some different things with their setups now. He also got his first win at this track last fall and should be a contender once again in this race. Another win on a short track is very possible for this team.

Clint Bowyer: Clint has won at this track twice during his career and always seems to run well on the short, flat tracks. He finished second in this race last season and has lead a bunch of laps in each of his last three starts here. This team is looking for a lot of improvement so they can get back to where they were two years ago when Clint finished second in the standings.

Matt Kenseth: Matt sat on the pole for this race last year and lead 140 laps during the race before settling for a seventh place finish. This team is still looking for their first win of the season and would like it to come soon so they don’t have to worry about making the Chase. After this next race we will be 1/3 of the way to the start of the Chase and teams don’t want to have to worry about getting a win as we close in on race #26 on the season.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kyle Busch
  • Jeff Gordon

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Denny Hamlin
  • Ryan Newman
  • Tony Stewart
  • Carl Edwards

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Austin Dillon
  • Justin Allgaier

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Jeff Gordon
  3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Clint Bowyer

Dark Horse: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Stay Away From: Brain Vickers