Category: Fantasy NASCAR

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Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 CHARLOTTE, COCA-COLA 600

After a week off from fantasy racing due to the All-Star race, we stay at Charlotte this weekend for the longest race of the NASCAR season. 600-miles is a battle of attrition to the drivers and teams in NASCAR and can also feel like a battle of attrition to those of us watching with young kids in the house. Difficulties aside, Memorial Day is always an exciting racing weekend. Due to the extra laps, front-loading your lineup is important this week. My suggestion, like most weeks, is to choose your three favorite drivers and fill in the rest of your roster with the best budget options available.

The driver who has the highest probability for success this week is Kevin Harvick. For the 2015 season, Harvick is rewarding us with a series-best 4.87 points per Fantasy Live dollar. He should be considered for your lineup every week. Combined with his 2015 numbers, Harvick also has a series best average finish position of 5.2 over the last five Charlotte races. During the same time span, he has spent an astounding 97% of his laps running in the top-15. Even though he has a commanding salary cap figure, you have to keep starting Kevin Harvick in all fantasy NASCAR formats.

The next driver for my suggested lineup is a high-risk high-reward racer on most weeks. At Charlotte, Kasey Kahne is among the most successful drivers in the series. With a 7.2 average finish position over the past five Charlotte races, Kahne has the second best average finish position in the series. He also has the second-most laps led in the series. With 13 top-10 finishes in his last 20 races at the North Carolina track, Kahne is a lower risk than most weeks. His salary cap figure is slightly lower than the other front-runners and should provide a little more flexibility at the bottom of your roster.

With 347 laps led over the last five Charlotte races, Jimmie Johnson will likely find success this week. Johnson has already won three races this season and is one of the top drivers in the series over the last few weeks. His 93% of his laps in the top-15 is second-best in the series to Kevin Harvick. Over the first 11 races in 2015, Jimmie Johnson is rewarding fantasy owners with 2.80 points per fantasy dollar. For the top drivers in the series, he is providing the second-most value per dollar.

With high dollar options for the top three drivers on my roster, there is little salary cap room for the final two spots. I have ignored David Gilliland for the 2015 season because he consistently runs in the bottom third. His track data, as evidenced by his 29th place average over the last five Charlotte races, is not overly impressive. In 2015, he is offering over three points per fantasy dollar. Most of this is due to a plus nine start-to-finish differential. Gilliland will stay on my roster unless he qualifies better than average. I may sub Chase Elliott for Gilliland depending on practice times and qualifying.

Another driver who benefits from start-to-finish differential is Matt DiBenedetto. With a plus seven figure and an average finish position of 30th, he is providing great value in 2015. While these numbers do not sound overly impressive, the translation is 3.78 fantasy points per dollar this year. This value is third-best in the series behind Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Charlotte races. Next, we divide this number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure. The end result is that we know which drivers will provide the most value each week. Kurt Busch does not have the track history at Charlotte, but has provided the second-most value of any driver in the series in 2015. As a consolation prize, we will use his Charlotte numbers to further illustrate the formula.

KURT BUSCH AT CHARLOTTE

  • Laps Led last five Charlotte races: 10 laps equals 1 points per race
  • Fast laps last five Charlotte races: 37 laps equals 3.7 points per race
  • Average finish position: 17.8 equals 26.2 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 3.4 equals (-3.4) points per race
  • Average number of points last five Charlotte races: 27.50
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $25.50
  • Points per dollar: 27.5 divided by 25.5 equals 1.08 points per dollar

Below you will find the points per dollar rankings for each driver. For drivers with no track history, we will use 2015 numbers. Feel free to add your team to the comments section and check the comments after qualifying for any additional updates.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 3.16
  • Kevin Harvick 3.09
  • Brad Keselowski 2.33
  • Matt Kenseth 2.24
  • Denny Hamlin 1.89
  • Jamie McMurray 1.89
  • Jeff Gordon 1.82
  • Kyle Busch 1.73
  • Joey Logano 1.50
  • Kyle Larson 1.31
  • Kurt Busch 1.08
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.60

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kasey Kahne 3.62
  • Carl Edwards 2.23
  • Ryan Newman 1.58
  • Clint Bowyer 1.42
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.42
  • Greg Biffle 1.33
  • Aric Almirola 0.94
  • Paul Menard 0.82

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 2.58
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 2.20
  • Tony Stewart 2.12

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Trevor Bayne 2.35
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.94
  • David Gilliland 1.90
  • Casey Mears 1.37
  • David Ragan 1.21
  • Ryan Blaney 0.77*
  • Danica Patrick 0.52

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.78*
  • Michael Annett 3.28
  • Landon Cassill 2.24
  • Chase Elliott 2.22*
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.13*
  • Cole Whitt 1.94
  • Alex Bowman 1.86
  • Jeb Burton 1.42*
  • Josh Wise 1.15
  • Michael McDowell 1.00
  • JJ Yeley 0.67
  • Brett Moffitt 0.34

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

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Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Charlotte Motor Speedway, Coca-Cola 600

I would like to welcome Kyle Busch back to the series and I hope he is healthy enough to contend for some wins this season. After this weekend’s race we will be a third of the way through the season and there are eight drivers qualified for the Chase with eight spots yet to fill. Remember, we still have two road course races to go and another restrictor plate race before the start of the Chase.

COCA-COLA 600

This week the series remains in Charlotte at the Charlotte Motor Speedway for the running of the Coca-Cola 600. This is the longest race of the season in terms of mileage and this race could take it’s toll on engines. Charlotte is another of the mile and a half tracks that are very numerous on the circuit. One thing I like about this race is that it starts with daylight and ends after dark. That means the crews need to keep adjusting the cars to keep them in contention for the win. Those who are fast early in the race often find themselves out of contention with an ill handling car as the race gets closer to the conclusion.

Kevin Harvick: I think Kevin had the best long run car in the All-Star race and I will pick him to win his third race of the season this weekend. Kevin has had fast cars all year and he hasn’t had many issues with his equipment. He seems to communicate well with his crew chief and then the correct adjustments are made to the car. They never seem to get very excited and with two wins on the season, there is no reason for them to. He also won this race two years ago, finished second in it last year, and won the fall race at this track last season.

Jimmie Johnson: With seven career wins in twenty-seven starts at Charlotte, Jimmie is always a contender at the end of these races. He wasn’t particularly fast in the All-Star race last weekend, but I think this team will be much improved this weekend. Anyone who finishes in the top 5 in almost half of his starts at any track is a must have on your fantasy roster.

Joey Logano: Joey has yet to win a race here, but he has finished in the top ten in seven of his twelve starts. This is another driver who has had fast cars almost every week this year. My concern is the number of mechanical issues the Penske teams have had this season, and this is a long race that will be hard on equipment. They also seem to be fast early in races, but can’t quite make the necessary adjustments as the track changes during a race.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey has four career wins here and won this race three years ago. This is one of Kasey’s favorite places to run and I look for him to come away with another top ten finish this weekend. Kasey would like to pick up a win as soon as possible so he doesn’t have to wait until just before the Chase starts to get himself qualified.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has five career wins at Charlotte and is looking for his first win of the season. He finished second here last October and he has finished in the top ten in over half of his forty-four career starts here. This team needs to have a good run and get some confidence back in Jeff’s final full-time season.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has always run well at Charlotte and has two wins to show for it. He is another driver who has finished in the top ten in just over half of his thirty-one starts here. This team already has a win this season and is qualified for the Chase so they don’t have any pressure on them. They can take a chances to try and win a few more races before the Chase begins.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has never won a race at Charlotte and 600-miles is going to test his endurance a little bit after breaking his leg and ankle in a crash at Daytona at the beginning of the season. I think he should be fine for this race as there isn’t a lot of shifting to do. His real test will come on the road course race in California a month from now.

Denny Hamlin: Denny won his first race at Charlotte last week in the All-Star race. Now he looks to win his first points race here. He has eleven top ten finishes in his nineteen starts and has a lot of confidence after last weekend’s win. This team needs to stay ahead of the changing track conditions which is where they seem to struggle as races progress this season.

Jamie McMurray: Jamie has two career wins at this track and he always seems to run well in the big races. He finished in the top five in both of his races here last year and this team has had a good season so far. I think they will pick up a win and make the Chase this year and that is all you can ask for if you are a driver.

Kurt Busch: Kurt picked up his only points race win here back in 2010. He has been very good every week since missing the first three races of the season due to a suspension and already has picked up a win and is qualified for the Chase. Kurt won’t be happy with only one win before the Chase and the attitude he has is to go out and do everything in his power to win every race he is entered in.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Kasey Kahne
  • Jamie McMurray
  • Kurt Busch
  • Martin Truex Jr.

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Chase Elliott
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Kasey Kahne
  4. Matt Kenseth
  5. Kyle Busch

Dark Horse: Paul Menard

Stay Away From: Brad Keselowski

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live 2015 Spring Summary

We are already a third of the way through the NASCAR season. With a week away from Fantasy Live for the All Star Race, this is a good week to review the first 11 races of the season.

Our weekly Fantasy Live article often focuses on each driver’s performance at the weekly track, but taking into account the 2015 results is also important. With eleven races into the season, we now have enough data where we can see which drivers are providing the best value in each group.

Not that this is a surprise to anyone this year, but the driver who has provided the most fantasy live value per salary cap dollar is Kevin Harvick. In eleven races in 2015, Kevin Harvick has spent 92% of his laps in the top-15. He will continue to be the among the favorites every week. With a series-best 4.87 per Fantasy Live dollar, Harvick is a must start every week.

Since returning from his early suspension, Kurt Busch has been one of the top drivers in the series. He is competing well in tracks where he usually struggles. One more solid finish and Kurt Busch will graduate to the top tier of drivers. With three less starts than the other drivers, Kurt Busch is second in total laps led and has spent 85% of his laps running in the top-15. He should produce at a level that you would expect Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano or Brad Keselowski.

The third tier has proven to be the least productive group. With a couple exceptions (see Allmendinger expanded driver averages at Watkins Glen), I would not roster any driver with a price range between $15.00 to $20.00. The least valuable driver in the series, Tony Stewart, is in this tier. With 0.38 points per dollar and an average finish position of 28th place, Tony Stewart cannot be considered for your roster. I am expecting his numbers to improve during the summer months as he traditionally performs better after Memorial Day.

While compiling this article, I was surprised to see the value that David Gilliland has provided this season. He is not flashy, as evidenced by his 24th place average. One of the areas where Gilliland is generated points is start-to-finish differential. With a plus nine in this category, Gilliland earns enough points to be worth his $10.75 salary cap value. I will be more mindful of the #38 car going forward.

In the bottom drivers, Matt DiBenedetto has quietly become a valuable option. He will start at 40th place and finish 34th on most tracks. The 15 Fantasy Live points generated provides value for your roster. Due to his success, his salary cap value is starting to clim a little so he may provide less value as the season progresses. Eighty percent of regular drivers with a salary cap figure are earning two points per fantasy dollar making the bottom drivers the safest ones to pick. The value at the bottom is one of the reasons I suggest front-loading your lineup every week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, fantasy live uses a salary cap format. Our formula simply calculates the average number of points earned by each driver for the last five races at a track. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap number to determine the value of each driver. The numbers below reflect the value for each driver for the eleven 2015 races. Enjoy your week’s rest from Fantasy NASCAR. We will have a Charlotte article posted later this week.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 4.87
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.80
  • Joey Logano 2.34
  • Brad Keselowski 1.97
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.92
  • Matt Kenseth 1.76
  • Denny Hamlin 1.60
  • Jeff Gordon 1.51
  • Jamie McMurray 1.40
  • Kyle Larson 1.24

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kurt Busch 3.88
  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.62
  • Aric Almirola 1.99
  • Ryan Newman 1.59
  • Kasey Kahne 1.59
  • Clint Bowyer 1.44
  • Carl Edwards 1.44
  • Paul Menard 1.41
  • Greg Biffle 1.19
  • Austin Dillon 1.19

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 1.68
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.61
  • Tony Stewart 0.38

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Gilliland 3.05
  • Danica Patrick 2.35
  • Trevor Bayne 2.13
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.11
  • Justin Allgaier 1.95
  • David Ragan 1.49
  • Ryan Blaney 0.77

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.78
  • Alex Bowman 2.85
  • Cole Whitt 2.72
  • Brett Moffitt 2.69
  • JJ Yeley 2.66
  • Michael Annett 2.62
  • Josh Wise 2.44
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.13
  • Michael McDowell 2.02
  • Landon Cassill 1.59
  • Jeb Burton 1.42
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 KANSAS, SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS 400

Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s starting position scared me away at Talladega. The fan favorite rewarded the owners who added him to their roster. After a series of short track and super speedways, we return to an intermediate sized track this week at Kansas. Intermediate tracks generally favor the top drivers in the series. As a result, I would suggest front-loading your roster with three top drivers and finding the best budget drivers possible for the final two spots.

An easy choice for your Kansas lineup this week is Kevin Harvick. Harvick has run near the top at every track, and he is especially dominant at tracks this size. Harvick has led the most laps over the past five Kansas races and is second in the series with an average finish position of 7.6. Historically, Harvick has run 73% of his laps in the top-15 since 2005 and has a 10th place average finish position during this time span. Kevin Harvick is an easy choice for the top of your lineup.

There are three other top drivers I would like this weekend and choosing a driver to leave off was challenging. After much deliberation, my second roster spot is going to Jimmie Johnson due to his long-term history at the track. Johnson has a respectable 13th place average finish position in the last five Kansas races and the fourth-most laps led. Since 2005, Johnson has 12 top-10 finishes in 14 races. During the same time span, Johnson has the best average finish position and the most laps led of any driver. The #48 team is looking more consistent as the season progresses, and I have high expectations this week.

Joey Logano’s long-term numbers at Kansas do not warrant a roster spot. However, he has looked much better since joining the Penske team and is one of the favorites to win this race. Over the last five races, Logano has a 13th place average finish position and the second-most laps led. Logano’s team is one of the best this year and Logano is a solid pick for your roster.

With a front-loaded lineup, there is not many salary cap dollars available for the final two roster spots. I am going with two high-risk, high-reward options. Erik Jones struggled as a last second substitute for Denny Hamlin earlier this season. With time to prepare, I am expecting a decent finish now that he is taking over for the #18 team. Ty Dillon has a 28th place finish in one race this year. My expectations are low, but a similar finish would provide value with an $8 salary cap. Michael Annett missed my roster, but has a 25th place average finish in two races. Consider him as a budget option.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five Kansas races. Next, we divide this number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure. The end result is a number that shows how many points to expect from each NASCAR driver. Matt Kenseth is the front-end driver that barely missed my roster. Dale Earnhardt Jr. was in this position last week and won in Talladega. As a consolation prize, we will use his numbers over the past five Kansas races to illustrate the formula.

DALE EARNHARDT JR AT KANSAS

  • Average finish position last five Kansas races: 7.2 = 36.8 fantasy live points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 7.8 equals 7.8 points per race
  • Laps led: 263 equals 26.3 points per race
  • Fast laps: 121 equals 12.1 point per race
  • Total points per race: 83
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $26
  • Points per Fantasy Live dollar: 83 divided by $26 equals 3.19 points per dollar

Below you will find the results for each drivers. Suggested picks are in bold. For drivers with no Kansas history, we are using their 2015 numbers for all of their races to give you an idea of the value that they are providing. Good luck with your picks this week. Feel free to share your rosters in the comments.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Matt Kenseth 3.19
  • Kevin Harvick 2.83
  • Kyle Larson 2.19
  • Joey Logano 2.08
  • Jeff Gordon 1.98
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.87
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.47
  • Brad Keselowski 1.36
  • Denny Hamlin 1.23
  • Jamie McMurray 1.03

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.25
  • Kasey Kahne 1.98
  • Paul Menard 1.85
  • Carl Edwards 1.82
  • Tony Stewart 1.60
  • Clint Bowyer 1.52
  • Aric Almirola 1.50
  • Greg Biffle 1.13
  • Ryan Newman 0.76
  • Kurt Busch 0.73

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 2.09
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.06
  • Sam Hornish Jr. (-0.52)

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Trevor Bayne 2.78
  • David Gilliland 2.17
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.67
  • Danica Patrick 1.63
  • Casey Mears 1.21
  • Justin Allgaier (-1.22)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 4.65
  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.20*
  • Landon Cassill 2.75
  • Cole Whitt 2.59
  • Brett Moffitt 2.56*
  • Ty Dillon 2.38*
  • Mike Bliss 2.36*
  • Josh Wise 1.60
  • Alex Bowman 1.38
  • Brendan Gaughan 1.33*
  • Jeb Burton 1.17*
  • Michael McDowell (-0.88)
  • Erik Jones (no data)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Kansas Speedway, SpongeBob SquarePants 400

Congratulations to Dale Earnhardt Jr. who picked up his first win of the season at Talladega on Sunday afternoon and qualified his team for the Chase. Half of the Chase spots are now filled with sixteen more races left before it starts. Now we just have to wait and see who will fill those other eight spots. Let’s see what happens in this Saturday night race.

SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS 400

This week the series heads to Kansas Speedway for the running of the SpongeBob SquarePants 400. Kansas Speedway is another of the mile and a half intermediate tracks on the circuit. This will be the last race before the series takes a week off for the All-Star race weekend in Charlotte. This will be a welcome break for most of the teams. Most of them will be able to take some time with their families as many of the teams are located in the Charlotte area.

Jimmie Johnson: I have to pick Jimmie to win this week’s intermediate track race once again. Jimmie has two career wins at Kansas, has finished in the top ten in fourteen of his seventeen starts there, and he has won two of the three races run at similar tracks this season. Those are the reasons I believe this team will garner their third win of the season on Saturday night.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has sat on the pole for the last three Kansas races in which he won one of those races and finished second in another. He is also the driver that won the mile and a half race at Las Vegas, which is the race Jimmie didn’t win. I look for Kevin to qualify well here once again and be in contention for the win at the end of the night.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff won this race last season and leads all drivers with three career wins at Kansas. This team is still looking for their first win of the season and wants to get qualified for the Chase as soon as possible. He has finished in the top five in ten of his eighteen starts here and that is an impressive stat for any driver. Look for him to be in contention at the end of this race.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has two career wins at Kansas and he can relax and just try to win races now that he is qualified for the Chase. He has also finished in the top ten in ten of his eighteen starts at this track. The Joe Gibbs teams seem to be getting a little faster every week, thus closing the gap with the Hendrick and Penske teams. I like Matt during night races, as he seems to run even better than normal during these races.

Carl Edwards: Carl is looking for his first win of the season and his first win at Kansas. Even though he doesn’t have a win, he has finished in the top ten in eleven of his fifteen starts here. This team just keeps getting better every week and they will break into the win column very soon and qualify for the Chase.

Joey Logano: Joey won the race here last fall during the Chase and has finished in the top four in his last three starts here. This team will be happy to get back to an intermediate track after being involved in some wrecks the past couple of races. They have been very disappointed in those races as they felt they has a chance to win those races. Now they should be back to contending.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Now that Dale has a win this season and is qualified for the Chase he can relax a little bit. Not that drivers who are qualified for the Chase really relax, but they don’t have the pressure of trying to win races to make the Chase. Dale will be looking for his first win at this track and with momentum on his side he just might get that win.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey is another driver without a win this season or at Kansas. Although he has finished in the top ten in seven of his fifteen starts here. This team is also going to be glad to get back to an intermediate track after being involved in on track incidents the past few races. With the equipment they have, I think they will win at least one race before the start of the Chase.

Tony Stewart: Tony has won two races at Kansas and this team has looked better and better every week. They seem to be faster and just need to make the correct adjustment as the track changes and a night race might make that a little easier for them. I think Tony is going to keep improving as the season progresses and it won’t surprise me to see him in victory lane before the Chase starts.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has won a race at Kansas in his career and he should have a fast car once again this weekend. I think this team has been very disappointed in their performance the past couple of races and are looking to get back to where they are contending in races. Look for Brad’s car to get faster as the race progresses and be in contention for the win at the end.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR KANSAS SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Carl Edwards
  • Tony Stewart
  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Paul Menard

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Eric Jones
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT KANSAS SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Kevin Harvick
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Matt Kenseth
  5. Carl Edwards

Dark Horse: Paul Menard

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch