Author: Jeff Gutowski

With four weeks in the season complete we head to a different type of track for the first time this year. That means all new cars and a different strategy where the speed isn’t as important as the handling and pit selections are huge. Let’s see who we think will run well this week.

INSTACART 500

The series stays out west as the drivers and teams head to the Phoenix Raceway for the running of the Instacart 500. This 1-mile flat track will demand that the cars are handling great into and coming out of the turns. The straightaways aren’t all that long, so speed isn’t the major factor here. If you falter early you will find yourself at least one lap down if not several and it’s hard to get those laps back on a shorter track because so many will get lapped on the track without having to pit for an issue.

Kevin Harvick: I have to stick with Kevin even though he isn’t as dominant here now as he has been in the past when he was virtually unbeatable for a few years. Still, he is the only active driver to finish in the top ten here in each of the last six races run. In fact, he has finished in the top ten here in nineteen of his last twenty-one starts and that includes seven wins and three runner-up finishes.

Kyle Busch: Kyle is no slouch here either. He has finished in the top five in nine of his last eleven starts with two wins in that stretch. He has also lead way more laps than any other driver in his last six starts. Even when he’s having a bad year like last year, this is the track where he will always run well. The biggest question will be where he gets to pit.

Denny Hamlin: Denny won the fall race here two years ago and has finished in the top five in four of his last six starts. Denny has always been very good on the flatter tracks and this is one of those. My concern with Denny is all of the speeding on pit road penalties he gets. That is something you can’t do at a track like Phoenix where if you start at the back you’re already in danger of going a lap down.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin has five top ten finishes in his last seven Phoenix starts. That’s pretty good, but there are better drivers to choose from this week and there are better places to use Martin at. I think he is someone we want to use on the mile and a half and longer tracks and possibly on the road courses where he has shown much more consistency.

Chase Elliott: Chase won this race last fall to win the season championship and has finished in the top three three times in his short ten race career at this track. The way he runs on the road courses and flat tracks tells you he should have a fast car once again this year. Plus the fact that he won here last year will give this team a lot of confidence heading into this weekend.

Joey Logano: Joey has won here twice in his career. The last coming in this race last year. The only driver to lead more laps here over the past six races is Kyle Busch which tell me that when Joey’s car is handling well he is going to run up front. The thing is, when he doesn’t have a good handling car early in the race they never seem to get it to handle well and then he suffers with poor finishing positions.

Kyle Larson: It’s still early in the season for this new team, but Kyle has run very well at Phoenix in his career. He has finished sixth or better in six of his last eight races at this track, but is still looking for his first win. They have impressed me with now well they have been running already this season and I only see them getting better at the year progresses. He might be worth taking a shot on this week.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has finished runner-up in two of his last five starts at this track as he looks for his first win. The problem here is the same problem his teammate, Joey Logano, has. If he doesn’t have a good handling car right away they don’t seem to be able to get it much better during the race. Hard to tell where they’ll be come race day without any practice sessions.

Aric Almirola: A bit of a surprise to me was that Aric has finished in the top ten in five of his last seven Phoenix starts. I guess I shouldn’t really be that surprised as he has run much better at these flatter tracks the past few seasons from what he did earlier in his career. It probably has a lot to do with him being with Stewart-Haas Racing now and being able to learn from Kevin Harvick.

William Byron: William has done pretty well in his short six race career at this track. He has an average finishing position of 13.5 with three top ten finish overall. With this team already qualified for the playoffs they might use this race as a test session to see what they can do to get the car to handle at its best so they have a leg up if they make the championship race this year.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has finished in the top twelve in each of his four starts here since joining Chip Ganassi Racing a couple of seasons ago. His career average finish is 13th in thirty-six starts at this track. He is someone you might want to take a chance on this week also.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR PHOENIX RACEWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Kevin Harvick

Driver Group Game Group B

• Kyle Busch
• Kyle Larson

Driver Group Game Group C

• Bubba Wallace

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT PHOENIX RACEWAY

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Kyle Busch
3. Chase Elliott
4. Martin Truex Jr.
5. Denny Hamlin

Dark Horse: Christopher Bell

Stay Away From: Alex Bowman

Big 18: Kyle Busch

The Hendrick teams looked very good last weekend at Homestead-Miami and continue to improve the speed and handling of their cars. Two years ago they couldn’t really compete and now they are looking to be every bit as good if not better than the competition. Let’s see if they can keep it up this coming weekend.

PENNZOIL 400 PRESENTED BY JIFFY LUBE

This week the series heads out west to the Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the running of the Pennzoil 400 Presented by Jiffy Lube. This is the second intermediate track in as many weeks with both tracks being fairly similar in configuration. That means we should look at the drivers who ran well last week and use them this week as they should be good once again.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin looked very good last weekend and has been one of the most consistent drivers on the intermediate tracks the past few seasons, so I’m picking him to win this week’s race. He won the fall race here two years ago and has finished in the top five in four of his last six starts. There will definitely be some competition for him this week, so it won’t be a cake walk to get the win.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won here back in the spring of 2018 and has finished first or second in six of the last twelve stages run at this track. He has also lead more laps than any other active driver over the last six races here. He came on late in the race last week and that should give them a good idea on how to setup the car for this week. He should be a contender once again.

Joey Logano: Joey won the last two spring races at this track. I’m not sure what to think about his performance last weekend and if that will carry over to this weekend. It’s kind of a toss up on whether or not to have him on your roster this weekend. I think we can wait and see if last week was a fluke or if this team has some work to do to become more competitive.

Brad Keselowski: In his last eleven starts at Las Vegas, Brad’s worst finish is thirteenth and that is the only time he has finished outside of the top ten in that stretch. In fact, he has three wins and seven top five finishes in those eleven races. He looked good early on in last week’s race before having to pit late. I think they should be fine once again this weekend.

Kyle Larson: Kyle is back and looked very good last weekend. I think this team will only get better as the year progresses and they should win some races. It’s a long season, so we can probably wait a little longer to make sure last weekend wasn’t a fluke. I’m guessing that all of the Hendrick teams are going to do well throughout the year though.

William Byron: Last week’s winner made it look easy as he won going away. Even when they dropped some spots in the pits he easily made it back to the front and stayed there with no one close at the end. This tells me that the Hendrick teams have found something and with a few years under their belts in this series they are working well with their individual teams and making the right decisions during the race.

Kyle Busch: Still not the finish this team expects or wants, but much better than last season. I think they will continue to build on what they did last week and eventually will be a contender on a weekly basis once again. This is Kyle’s hometown track and he hasn’t won here since the 2009 season, but he has finished in the top ten in four of his last six starts here. Once again we can probably hold off on having him in our lineup until they show us they have improved even more.

Alex Bowman: Another top ten for a Hendrick driver in last week’s race. Alex runs well on this type of track and should have a fast car once again this weekend. They probably learned a few things about their car and can learn more from some of their teammates about what they did to run a bit better than Alex last week. I see this team running well again.

Denny Hamlin: Denny was running with the leaders for most of the race until he once again got caught speeding in the pits. He really tries to push the envelope a little too much and too often entering and leaving the pits which puts him behind the eight ball. He needs to learn that he can take a bit of extra time getting into his pit stall because these penalties, especially late in the race, are killers.

Michael McDowell: Surprising me once again, Michael had another great run last weekend. He has now finished in the top ten in each race this season and that was done on three different types of tracks. If he can do it again this weekend more people will start taking notice. I’m not sure if this team can keep it up, but I’m pulling for them. Always nice to see one of the smaller teams do well on the track.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Martin Truex Jr.

Driver Group Game Group B

• William Byron
• Kyle Larson

Driver Group Game Group C

• Michael McDowell

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

1. Martin Truex Jr.
2. Kevin Harvick
3. Kyle Larson
4. William Byron
5. Denny Hamlin

Dark Horse: Michael McDowell

Stay Away From: Kyle Busch

Big 18: Martin Truex Jr.

We now head into the third race of the season and the third different type of track as the teams remain in Florida. That means this is the third set of totally differently build cars that the drivers will be using this week. That’s a lot of work for the teams to do in three short weeks although they probably had most of the work done in the off-season.

DIXIE VODKA 400

As mentioned above, the teams are once again in the state of Florida this week as they head to the Homestead-Miami Speedway for the running of the Dixie Vodka 400. This is one of those mile and a half tracks that are still prevalent on the circuit, though NASCAR has added some new tracks to the schedule.

Kevin Harvick: I have to go with one of the most consistent drivers from last year to win this race. We will be able to tell more after the first couple of races on the intermediate tracks about which teams and drivers have improved or fallen back on these tracks from where they were last year. Kevin was one of the drivers who was good each and every week last year on this type of track.

Chase Elliott: Last year’s champion got better and better as the year progressed last season. So far this year he is looking like a legitimate contender to retain that title. This race will tell us if the Hendrick cars have continued to improve after they all got better as the season went on last year. Once again he was very tough throughout the playoffs.

Denny Hamlin: Denny and Kevin fought it out week after week in the middle of the season last year. There’s no reason to think this team won’t be a contender most weeks again this year as they try to win their first championship together. They just need to be more consistent in the pits, both the crew and the driver. They need to cut down on their mistakes in this part of the race.

Kyle Busch: Though he had a rough season last year, Kyle still remains one of the best drivers on the circuit. We’ll find out if the team chemistry has gotten better this year which will allow Kyle to start winning multiple races early this year and get this team a chance to get ready for the playoffs and get their confidence back. He has been good at this track the last three seasons.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin was a bit disappointed with his teams performance on the intermediate tracks last year because they were so used to dominating for a couple of years previous to that. It seemed like he didn’t have a car that handled well at the beginning of races and had to make adjustments to get him towards the front, but they found it hard to win races. We’ll see if they figured something out for this year when there will be very few races that have practice sessions once again.

Joey Logano: All of the Penske drivers had fast cars on a weekly basis last season and Joey has always run well here. He won here back in the 2018 season and had a top five finish the year after. It seems as if this team has a good car early in the race they can compete, but if they miss on the initial setup it becomes a very long day for them.

Ryan Blaney: Another of the Penske drivers, Ryan is usually somewhere in the mix towards the front of the field. I think he still needs to learn to be a little more patient early in races and that will come with more experience. This is another team that can win almost every week if they can stay out of trouble of their own making.

Aric Almirola: Aric has excelled on the intermediate tracks the last couple of years and needs to make one more step in the right direction to start winning more races. We know the Stewart-Haas teams have the speed to win. This team just needs to believe in themselves more and not try to second guess when it comes to making decisions on adjustments during the race.

Brad Keselowski: Brad went on a streak of winning races on the intermediate tracks last season and he’s a past champion who knows what he needs to do to win races. With a fast car and with his crew together for the second season we might see a bit of that consistency early on this year.

Kyle Larson: Let’s not forget that Kyle is back now after being reinstated following a suspension last year. He is now with Hendrick Motorsports. I want to wait and see how the team works together before I start using him on my fantasy teams. It’s a long season so there’s no reason we can’t wait and see how the team gels before we use up some of his starts.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Kevin Harvick

Driver Group Game Group B

• Aric Almirola
• Kyle Busch

Driver Group Game Group C

• Bubba Wallace

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Chase Elliott
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Kyle Busch
5. Martin Truex Jr.

Dark Horse: Christopher Bell

Stay Away From: Ryan Newman

Big 18: Kevin Harvick

Once again a restrictor plate track doomed me as a couple of my drivers were involved in the early race wreck at Daytona. Congratulations to Michael McDowell, who picked up his first ever win and is now qualified for this years playoffs. All in all a pretty disappointing weekend with the rain delay and the race not ending until late at night for most of us fans.

O’REILLY AUTO PARTS 253 AT DAYTONA

This week the series stays right in Daytona, but they will be running on the road course here this time. We shouldn’t see crashes with a third of the field involved this week, but the road course races can be tough on equipment and we will see quite a few cars getting moved by someone getting into them as they battle on the turns.

Chase Elliott: Last year’s champion is my pick to win this week’s race. He won here last August and has won his last four road course starts. Hard to go against someone who has stats like that, although it won’t be a cake walk for him. There are other drivers who want to end his streak and are capable of doing so.

Denny Hamlin: Denny finished second to Chase here last season and is one of the more consistent road course racers on the circuit. He has seven top five finishes in his last twelve starts on this type of track and showed last year that he will be a contender each and every week and this week will be no different.

Martin Truex Jr.: After getting involved in the early race wreck at Daytona last week, I’m sure this team is looking forward to this week’s race. Martin has two wins and two runner-up finishes in his last nine road course races. He has also finished in the top ten in eight of those nine races which shows that he has a handle on this type of racing and can stay out of trouble on the track.

Ryan Blaney: Ryan has shown that he knows how to race on this type of track also. He has finished in the top five in four of his last six road course starts including a win at Charlotte a few years ago. I think he just keeps getting better and better each week and should have another good run coming up this weekend.

Kyle Busch: After a very disappointing year for Kyle last season I’m sure he’s looking forward to this season and turning his fortunes around. He won the Busch Clash a couple of weeks ago on this track, so he should have a great handling car once again this weekend. Even though he hasn’t finished in the top ten in his last four road course starts he did have a run before that of nine top ten finishes in ten races.

Kurt Busch: Kurt is another driver who has run consistently well on this type of track throughout his career. Like Kyle, Kurt hasn’t quite had the results we would expect of him lately. He did finish fourth at Charlotte last October and hasn’t finished outside of the top twenty in his last nineteen starts which include thirteen top ten finishes in those races.

Kevin Harvick: No top ten finishes in the two road course races last season for Kevin, but once again like some of the other drivers, Kevin had seven top ten finishes in his eight starts before that including a win at Sonoma back in 2017. We have seen that he is one of the most consistent drivers on all types of track week in and week out.

Erik Jones: Erik is my dark horse this week as he usually runs well on this type of track, but now that he is on a new team this year we’ll have to see how they gel together. This is one of those races where there are only a couple of pit stops, so there isn’t a lot of chances to adjust the handling of the car. If the equipment doesn’t break I think he has a good run this week.

Alex Bowman: Alex has quietly made a name for himself on the road course tracks. Though still looking for his first road course win, Alex did finish second at Charlotte a couple of years ago and has never finished outside the top fifteen in his nine starts since joining Hendrick Motor Sports.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DAYTONA ROAD COURSE

Driver Group Game Group A

• Chase Elliott

Driver Group Game Group B

• Kyle Busch
• Alex Bowman

Driver Group Game Group C

• Michael McDowell

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DAYTONA ROAD COURSE

1. Chase Elliott
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Martin Truex Jr.
4. Ryan Blaney
5. Kyle Busch

Dark Horse: Erik Jones

Stay Away From: Christopher Bell

Big 18: Chase Elliott

Short and sweet this week seeing the qualifying races were run so late in the week. I will be back early next week with an analysis and my preliminary picks for the Daytona road course race and will continue to post articles as early as I can once the week’s race is complete.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Joey Logano

Driver Group Game Group B

• Austin Dillon
• Ryan Newman

Driver Group Game Group C

• David Ragan

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

1. Aric Almirola
2. Joey Logano
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Austin Dillon

Dark Horse: Bubba Wallace

Stay Away From: Martin Truex Jr.

Big 18: Austin Dillon