Author: Jeff Gutowski

There are only two races left before the start of the Chase. Will we get a new winner that knocks someone out of the Chase who is trying to get in on points or will the next two race victories be claimed by drivers who are already qualified thus letting those without a win make it on points? Those questions will be answered after the Darlington and Richmond checkered flags fly.

BOJANGLES’ SOUTHERN 500

After taking a week off the series heads to Darlington Raceway for the running of the Bojangles’ Southern 500. The track also known as ‘The Track Too Tough to Tame’ and ‘The Lady in Black’ moves back to its Labor Day Weekend date this year. Daryl Waltrip said ‘This ain’t no lady’ during a broadcast once and he is spot on. You will hear them talk about the Darlington stripe this weekend, which is the mark that is left on a car and the wall when a car brushes up against it. The reason for this is the way the track is configured. It is more egg shaped than oval and when you come off the corner you better remember that or you will find yourself in the wall.

I am looking forward to this race as many drivers will be going to retro paint schemes this weekend. Dale Earnhardt Jr. will be running Mark Martins 1998 scheme with Valvoline as his sponsor. Jeb Burton will be running his father Ward’s black and yellow scheme, and Brad Keselowski will drive a Miller High Life car painted like the one Bobby Allison drove back in the 1970’s. Those are just a few of the paint schemes you will see this weekend. In all at least 29 drivers will have some type of retro paint scheme, so you will really need to focus to know who is who on the track.

Kevin Harvick: I am picking Kevin Harvick to finally return to victory lane this weekend at Darlington. He won this race last year after leading 238 laps and has finished in the top five here in his last two starts. He has finished second ten times this season to go along with his two wins and it is time for him to get back to victory lane. Kevin will be driving a retro Budweiser car this weekend.

Matt Kenseth: Matt won this race two years ago and has three straight top ten finishes here. The Joe Gibbs teams have been outstanding the past two months and this is another track they all seem to excel at. Matt always seems to have one of the best pit crews in the business and he never gets excited during a race. After losing an engine early at Bristol, Matt will be looking forward to getting back on the track.
Jeff Gordon: Jeff leads all active drivers with seven wins at Darlington. He has also finished in the top five in eight of his last eleven starts here and would love to pick up a win before the start of the Chase which would guarantee himself a spot no matter what happens at Richmond. This might be his best shot at picking up a win in his final season.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has three wins and nine top ten finishes in his sixteen starts here. This team really needs to step up their program and stop making mistakes on pit road if they want to have a shot at winning another championship this season. Miscues during the Chase can knock a driver out in a hurry and the time to stop making those mistakes starts now, not when the Chase gets underway.

Ryan Newman: Ryan has a 63-point lead over Aric Almirola who is the first driver on the outside of Chase. If we don’t get a new winner in the next two weeks Ryan will once again make the Chase without a win as he enters. I think he is pretty safe and Darlington is one of the tracks he really runs well at consistently. He has seven top five and eleven top ten finishes in his sixteen starts at this track and is looking for his first win here.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has one win at this track and has finished in the top ten in seven of his nine starts here. As I said before, the Joe Gibbs teams have all looked very good the past two months and they will all have a shot at picking up a win this weekend. If Kevin Harvick is the favorite to win his second championship this year, he will see all of the JGR drivers in his rear view mirror looking to take that championship away from him.

Carl Edwards: Carl is still looking for his first win at Darlington but, he has finished in the top ten in seven of his eleven starts including two second place finishes. I think this team is still working on some communication issues and getting the right adjustments made on their car as the races progress. Still not bad for a team that is in their first year together.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has been the driver to beat almost every week for the past two months. In that time he has four wins and moved himself into the top thirty in points and he is now Chase eligible. He has a 46-point lead over Cole Whitt and that should be enough for him to make the Chase. He still needs to be careful early in the races because finishing towards the end of the pack could knock him out if he has two bad races in a row. At the end of the race he can go for the win again.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has nine top ten finishes in his twenty starts at this track and he finished second here last season. He has a top ten car every week it seems and that should be good enough to make it through the first round of the Chase but, teams will need to keep improving as the Chase wears on if they want to be in the final round at Homestead-Miami.

Tony Stewart: Tony is still looking for his first win at Darlington where he has finished in the top ten in twelve of his twenty-two starts. This team seems to be doing a little better and has qualified well and run well early in races lately but, then they lose the handling on the car or have some other issue on pit road or on the track and then they end up finishing the races a few laps down.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DARLINGTON RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

• Kevin Harvick
• Jeff Gordon

Yahoo Driver Group B

• Carl Edwards
• Kyle Larson
• Austin Dillon
• Tony Stewart

Yahoo Driver Group C

• Ryan Blaney
• Chase Elliott

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DARLINGTON RACEWAY

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Jeff Gordon
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Carl Edwards

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Kasey Kahne

Congratulations to Matt Kenseth who picked up his third win of the season this past weekend in Michigan. All of the Joe Gibbs teams are looking good as we close in on the start of the Chase. There are only three races left before the start of the Chase now and we could get a new winner in any of those races which will knock out a driver who is trying to get in on points. These next three races are very critical to every driver without a win this season.

IRWIN TOOLS NIGHT RACE

This week the series heads back to Bristol Motor Speedway for the running of the Irwin Tools Night Race. As the name suggests, this race will be run on Saturday night weather permitting. This 0.533-mile concrete oval has 26-30 degree banking in the corners and drivers make a lap in about fifteen seconds. That means if you make a mistake you are going to get lapped in a hurry here. If you have a problem and have to pit under green you are going to lose multiple laps.

Kyle Busch: Kyle now sits in 29th place in the standings and has a twenty-three point lead over Cole Whitt who sits in thirty-first place. With five career wins at this track and the way he has run over the past two months, Kyle is my pick to win this week’s race. He has finished in the top five in eight of his twenty career starts here and he has the right attitude to get the job done here once again.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has four wins at this track including a win here in the spring race this season. He has also finished in the top ten in nine of his last twelve starts at this track and has momentum on his side after his dominating performance at Michigan last week. Once again it looks like the Joe Gibbs teams will be the teams to beat this weekend at Bristol.

Kurt Busch: Kurt, like his brother Kyle, has five wins at this track also. However, his last win here came way back in the 2006 season. Now that he is on a new team and is already qualified for the Chase, I think Kurt will come out with the fire he had when he was almost unbeatable at this track. I would love to see a last lap showdown between the Busch brothers this Saturday night.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff also has five career wins at Bristol and his last win here came even further back then Kurt’s. Jeff’s last win at this track was the fall race in 2002. Jeff would really like to pick up a win and lock himself into the Chase and not have to worry about getting in on points. I think he will have no problem using the chrome bumper at Bristol like he has done in the past to put himself in position to win this race.

Carl Edwards: Carl has three career wins at Bristol with the last coming in the spring race last season. Like I said earlier, all of the Joe Gibbs teams have run very well over the past two months and I think they are all going to run well once again this weekend. I think it is going to be hard for any other team to knock all of these guys off the top of the podium this weekend.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has won twice at this track in eleven starts and has four top three finishes in those eleven starts. This team has struggled a little bit recently with the handling of their car early in races but, they have come back strong at the end of races. Brad has the right mentality to not worry about a little beating and banging and that is how you win at Bristol.

Tony Stewart: Tony has one win at this track and has qualified well the last month of the season. I think this team is getting closer to having better finishes and he should do well once again this weekend. He finished sixth here in the spring race and that was when this team was really struggling. He is a good pick this weekend if you need to make a move in your league.

Jimmie Johnson: After having a real rough time at Michigan last weekend, this team will be happy to get to Bristol. Jimmie finished second here in the spring race this year and fourth in the fall race last season. I think this team is going to get into Chase mode now and they are going to try and win another race before the Chase starts. Testing time is over for the Chase teams now as they get geared up to try and win a championship.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has struggled a bit at Bristol lately with only two top ten finishes in his last ten starts here. However, the way this team has run most of the year, I think they will have a good handling car this weekend and will have a shot at the win if they can stay clean on pit road and not get caught up in an accident early in the race.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin sat on the pole for this race last season and has led over seven-hundred laps at this track. After another second place finish at Michigan last week this team is eager to get back into victory lane as we get closer to the start of the Chase. Kevin should have a good handling car once again this weekend and qualifying is very important here so that the teams can select a good pit stall.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

• Kyle Busch
• Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Driver Group B

• Carl Edwards
• Tony Stewart
• Kyle Larson
• Kurt Busch

Yahoo Driver Group C

• Justin Allgaier
• Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY

1. Kyle Busch
2. Matt Kenseth
3. Brad Keselowski
4. Kurt Busch
5. Carl Edwards

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Martin Truex Jr.

Joey Logano picks up his second win of the season and Kyle Busch moves into the top thirty in points and is now eligible for the Chase with four races left to go before it starts. Right now we have eleven different winners and that means there are five spots open for people to qualify on points. Of those five drivers there is a fifty point cushion from the sixteenth spot to the seventeenth spot. The real problem comes if we get a new race winner in the next four races. If we do that will knock out another of those trying to get in on points and there is only twenty-three points separating all five of those drivers. One bad race could knock out any of them.

PURE MICHIGAN 400

This week the series heads back to Michigan International Speedway. Kurt Busch won the rain shortened race here in July when he took the lead on lap 133 and three laps later the rains came and the caution came out. Two laps after that the red flag was shown and the race was eventually called with Busch in the lead.

This two-mile track is very similar to California Speedway in its configuration and is not much different from the mile-and-a-half tracks that the series runs on quite regularly. It seems that the teams that can find a little more speed on the straightaways have the advantage at this track and right now that means the Joe Gibbs and Stewart-Haas teams are the teams to beat.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin didn’t win the race in June but, he was the dominant car, leading almost half of the laps run. If he wouldn’t have had to pit for fuel just before the rains came he would have been out in front like he was for most of the rest of the race. I think he is going to come back to this track with a great setup and will come away with another victory as we get closer to the Chase. He has also finished in the top five in four of his last five starts here.

Joey Logano: Joey picked up a win here two years ago and has finished in the top ten in his last five starts here. After his second win of the season last week at Watkins Glen, this team has a lot of confidence and momentum on their side. If they can qualify in the top ten and make the correct adjustments to their car this week during the race they might just win back-to-back races.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has won two races at this track and finished third here in June this year. He has also finished in the top ten in his last three starts at this track and seems to be running very well consistently on this type of track this season. I look for this team to run well here once again this weekend as they gear up for the Chase and try to make sure they are doing what they need to do to keep up with changing track conditions.

Carl Edwards: Carl has been hit and miss this year with his new team on a weekly basis but, the way the Joe Gibbs teams are running right now this could be the week Carl picks up another win. He has two career wins at Michigan and has finished in the top ten in two-thirds of his twenty-two starts at this track. That is an outstanding stat and I think this team could come away with another great finish this weekend.

Matt Kenseth: Matt also has two wins at this track and runs for Joe Gibbs Racing. He also has some very impressive stats finishing in the top ten in nineteen of his thirty-two starts at this track and his numbers are equally impressive at California where he has fifteen top ten finishes in twenty-three starts. These are two of Matt’s best tracks to run on and this weekend should be no different.

Kyle Busch: Now that Kyle has made it to the top thirty in points he just needs to stay there over the next four weeks to make the Chase. Michigan hasn’t been one of his better tracks to run on as he has only six top ten finishes in twenty-one starts. This team can try to continue to win races and run well but, they really need to look at the big picture and make sure they don’t take any chances that could knock them back out of the top thirty in points.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has won three times at this track during his career and has finished in the top ten in twenty-seven of his forty-one starts here. Right now he can make the Chase on points but, I don’t think anyone wants to take the chance we get another new winner this season and they have a bad race and get knocked out of the Chase and a chance to win a championship.
Ryan Newman: Ryan has won two races at this track during his career but, he has only finished in the top ten in seven of his twenty-eight starts. Ryan is currently in the Chase on points and hasn’t won a race in the past two seasons. However, that didn’t keep him from coming close to winning his first championship last season when he finished second to Kevin Harvick at Miami in the last race of the season with the championship on the line.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has yet to win a race at this track in his home state. However, he hasn’t finished worse than thirteenth in his last eight starts at this track and will do everything he can to win a race here. If his teammate, Joey Logano, always runs well here there is no reason to think Brad can’t do the same thing. I think he might be pressing a little too hard to win at this track and just needs to try and relax a little bit this weekend.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

• Kevin Harvick
• Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Driver Group B

• Kasey Kahne
• Carl Edwards
• Martin Truex Jr.
• Paul Menard

Yahoo Driver Group C

• Danica Patrick
• Justin Allgaier

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Matt Kenseth
3. Joey Logano
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
5. Jeff Gordon

Dark Horse: Clint Bowyer

Stay Away From: Greg Biffle

Kyle Busch took a chance at making history and suffering a chance at not making the Chase when he went for his fourth straight win and ran out of gas on the last lap. However, it doesn’t look like that strategy hurt his chances of making the Chase as he is now just thirteen points out of the top thirty with five more races to go. If he finishes the next five races on the track, he should make the Chase easily.

CHEEZ-IT 355 AT THE GLEN

Five races left until the start of the Chase and this week the series heads to Watkins Glen International, which will be the second and final road-course race of the season. This race could potentially find a new winner that wouldn’t make the Chase without finishing with the checkered flag. That also means that someone could win this race and take away another spot from those trying to get in on points.

Kyle Busch: The win streak might have been snapped at Pocono but, I believe it restarts right away this week at Watkins Glen. Kyle won the race at Sonoma earlier this season and has won twice at ‘The Glen’ during his career. Besides that he has finished in the top ten in eight of his ten starts at this track. It would be foolish not to have him on your team this week.

Tony Stewart: Tony leads all active drivers with five wins on this track and he know he needs a win to make the Chase. This team has run very well the past two races and Tony has the mentality to know how to win races here and he also knows he needs to win one of the next five races to make the Chase.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff trails Tony in wins by one. He has won four races at this track and even after his third place finish at Pocono last week he knows a win will give him a guaranteed spot in the Chase. He also knows he had a little good luck thrown his way when some of the drivers ahead of him ran out of gas and gave him the spot he got last weekend at Pocono. I guarantee you he will do whatever he can to get a win this week without knocking himself out of contention for the Chase.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has won a race at this track and has seven top ten finishes in fourteen starts here. This team has nothing to learn here for the Chase and will do everything they can to win this race and improve their spot in the Chase. They see how well Kyle is running now and they know they will have to step up their game to repeat as champions.

Carl Edwards: Carl is still looking for his first career win at this track but, he has finished in the top five in half of his ten starts here. Joe Gibbs racing hasn run extremely well over the past two months with Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth winning races during that stretch and showing a lot of speed. Carl is already qualified for the Chase and I think this team will do nothing but go for the win this weekend.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has only run five races at this track and he has finished second three times. He is always a threat in these types of races and he has nothing to lose as he is already qualified for the Chase. I look for Brad and Kyle Busch to fight it out for the win once again this week if neither of them get into to trouble early in the race.
Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie is solidly in the Chase and I think this team has been doing a lot of experimenting over the past couple of months. I also think they learned not to wait too long to get back to doing what they do best like they did last season and I think they will come out looking to just win another race this weekend. The thing to remember is that teams that are already qualified for the Chase will take gambles on fuel mileage etc. to win another race right now.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin is the last of the consistent drivers on this course. In nine career starts here, he has finished in the top ten five times. This team is already in the Chase but, they know they will need every point and advantage they can get to win a championship without another team in their stable. Martin will do what he can to pick up another win this weekend.

Kurt Busch: Kurt is another driver without a win but the mentality and equipment to make it to victory lane. Kurt has six top ten finishes in fourteen starts at this track and could have won multiple races here if not for mechanical issues or bad luck and timing on their pit stops. One of these times everything will fall into place for Kurt and that could be this weekend.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR WATKINS GLEN INTERNATIONAL

Yahoo Driver Group A

• Kyle Busch
• Brad Keselowski

Yahoo Driver Group B

• Tony Stewart
• AJ Allmendinger
• Carl Edwards
• Kurt Busch

Yahoo Driver Group C

• Landon Cassill
• Boris Said

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT WATKINS GLEN INTERNATIONAL

1. Kyle Busch
2. Brad Keselowski
3. Tony Stewart
4. Jeff Gordon
5. Kurt Busch

Dark Horse: AJ Allmendinger

Stay Away From: Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Kyle Busch is on a mission right now. He picked up his third straight win and fourth in his last five starts and moved closer to the top thirty in points. With six more races to go before the Chase starts, all he needs to do is stay out of trouble and he should have a shot at winning his first Sprint Cup Championship. Right now he would be the odds on favorite to win that title too.

WINDOWS 10 400

This week the series heads back to Pocono Raceway for the running of the Windows 10 400. Once again, Pocono is a long two-and-a-half mile track without a lot of banking. It consists of three different types of corners and the trick is to get your car setup to be as fast as it can be all the way around the track. This is where a good crew-chief and good information from the driver really comes into play. You might make an adjustment to make your car better in one corner but, that adjustment might slow you down in the other two. Balance is the key to this race.

Denny Hamlin: I am going to say that Denny Hamlin finds himself back in victory lane at this track this weekend. The Joe Gibbs teams have been spectacular over the past six weeks and this weekend should be no different. Denny has won four races at this track and has nine top five finishes in his nineteen starts here. I think Kyle Busch is going to have to step out of the spotlight this week.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has won two of the last three races at Pocono and his worse finish in the last five races is an eleventh place finish. After another disappointing finish last week due to more mechanical problems on pit road, this team will be looking forward to getting back to the track and running well throughout a race. I think Dale will run up front most of the day and be in a position to go for another win late in this race.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff is another driver who will be looking for a little redemption this week after a disappointing finish last week also. Jeff got caught up in an accident that started in front of him and it ruined his day. Not the thing a team that doesn’t have a win and is trying to make the Chase on points wants to happen. With six wins at this track, Jeff leads all active drivers in that category and would love to make it seven and guarantee his spot in the Chase.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin won the race here in June and ran well once again last weekend at Indy. This team seems to have a really good handle on these flat tracks and they have shown that they have the speed to win races. Martin will be looking for the Pocono sweep this weekend as we close in on the Chase. He had the dominant car in the June race as he lead ninety-seven laps in that race.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has always run well at this track and has three wins to back up that statement. He also has finished in the top ten in eighteen of his twenty-seven starts at this track. Now that Kyle Busch has the same number of wins as Jimmie and looks like he will make the Chase, this team would love to pick up another win themselves to obtain all of the bonus points they can when the Chase starts.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has two wins at this track and has always run well here himself. He has finished in the top ten in sixteen of his twenty-eight career starts at Pocono which is very good. Kurt has been fast all season and I think this team just needs a little better communication between driver and crew-chief. I know Kurt gives good information but, that doesn’t mean he and his crew-chief interpret that information to mean the same thing all of the time.

Kyle Busch: Let’s not rule Kyle out here. Any team that can win three straight races and four of five is some to be reckoned with. He has won on all types of tracks during this stretch and everything seems to be falling into place for this team right now. The biggest thing for this team right now is to remember they don’t have to win every race, they just need to finish them on the lead lap and they will make the Chase.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin is still looking for his first career win at this track. However, he has finished second here in his last two starts, which means he has a pretty good idea on how to get around this track. This team is solidly in the Chase and would like to get at least one more win before the start of the Chase. They have been consistent for the last two seasons and that is how they won the championship last year.

Tony Stewart: Tony had a real good car last week at Indy but, things just didn’t work out well for him late in the race. He got caught behind cars that had bad restarts and then got pinballed out of contention. This is another week where Tony can come out and win a race and qualify himself for the Chase. Tony has finished in the top ten in twenty-two of his thirty-three starts here with two wins to show. After last week I think this team can win this week’s race.

Joey Logano: Joey has one win at Pocono and has finished in the top ten in five of his last seven starts there. He had a fast car that handled well last week at Indy and he had himself in position to pick up a win on the last restart but, Kyle Busch just got too good of a restart and Joey couldn’t get around him during the Green-White-Checkered finish. This week could be a different story.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR POCONO RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

• Denny Hamlin
• Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Yahoo Driver Group B

• Kurt Busch
• Tony Stewart
• Martin Truex Jr.
• Kyle Larson

Yahoo Driver Group C

• Justin Allgaier
• Landon Cassill

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT POCONO RACEWAY

1. Denny Hamlin
2. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. Joey Logano
5. Tony Stewart

Dark Horse: Tony Stewart

Stay Away From: Jamie McMurray