Author: Jeff Gutowski

Congratulations to Martin Truex Jr. who won the first race of this year’s Chase and is now qualified for the second round of the playoffs. Chase Elliott came close to winning the first race of his career once again, but was foiled by a late race caution where he came out of the pits just behind Truex and couldn’t make up the gap in the final laps. Joey Logano came in second, Elliott third, non-Chaser Ryan Blaney was fourth, and Brad Keselowski rounds out the top five.

NEW ENGLAND 300

For the second race in this round of the Chase we will travel back to the New Hampshire Motor Speedway. NHMS is a slightly longer than one-mile oval speedway. This track, also known as “The Magic Mile”, hosts two races each season and used to be the opening race of the Chase until a few years ago. It is a fairly flat track in comparison to most other tracks on the circuit, so we will look at the drivers who run well on this type of track.

Matt Kenseth: Matt is my pick to win the race this weekend. He has won the last two races at this track, so this team has something figured out with the setup and adjustments that need to be made to keep up with changing track conditions. Matt has three wins overall at this track and eighteen top ten finishes in thirty-three starts here. I think his patience and calm demeanor really help him at this track.
Denny Hamlin: Denny always seems to run very well at this track and has two wins and thirteen top ten finishes in his twenty-one starts here to show for it. After winning the race at Richmond just before the Chase started you have to consider putting him on your team as that is a similar though slightly shorter track than Loudon. As I said last week, Denny’s pit crew has been spot on lately and that will get you a lot of spots on the track.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie is another driver with three wins to his credit at NHMS and nineteen top ten finishes in twenty-nine starts here. This team looked very good last week at Chicago and maybe that will turn their fortunes around as the Chase progresses. I think that with the amount of intermediate tracks on the Chase schedule this team will have a shot at winning another championship if they can avoid any hiccups on the way to Homestead.

Tony Stewart: Tony finished second in the race here earlier this season and has won three times. Winning a race would go a long way in ensuring Tony doesn’t get eliminated in the first round as this team hasn’t been very consistent this year and if you have one bad race out of three it might be enough to knock you out. Getting the win gets you the automatic pass to the next round.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has one win here during his short career and always seems to run well on this type of track. After coming away with a top five finish at Chicago this team is positioned to move on with another good run this weekend. Brad just needs to stay out of trouble on the track and he will get the adjustments he needs to make his car competitive at the end of the race.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin got caught on pit road at Chicago under a green flag stop when the caution came out and trapped him a lap down. He never got to make that lap up and it cost him all of the bonus points he entered the Chase with. There is a little pressure on this team now as they can’t afford to have another poor finish and the pit crew hasn’t been at the top of their game this year.

Joey Logano: Joey has two win at this track and eight top ten finishes in his sixteen starts. He has also finished in the top four in his last four races here. After coming away with a second place finish at Chicago last weekend this is another team that is sitting in the driver seat so to speak as they try to move on to the second round of the Chase.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has finished first or second in four of his last seven starts here. Those are impressive stats at any track and this team needs to get back to their winning ways. They came back from a pit road speeding penalty to pick up a top ten finish last weekend and avoided putting a lot of pressure on themselves in the first round of the Chase.

Kyle Larson: Kyle has two top five finishes in only five starts at this track. They stumbled a little bit last week at Chicago when a tire problem took them out of contention for a top ten finish and now they need to come back with a great finish to keep the pressure off. It is hard to fathom how much pressure is on these teams when they only have three races to move on to the next round and one slip up can knock you out.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has won three times at this track and this team needs another good run or a win to get themselves back on track. Kurt has struggled here a bit over the past twelve races here with only two top ten finishes and those were both tenth. They can’t afford to let an opportunity at a short track pass them by as this is where they usually make hay.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

• Matt Kenseth
• Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

• Kyle Larson
• Tony Stewart
• Ryan Newman
• Greg Biffle

Yahoo Driver Group C

• Chase Elliott
• Ryan Blaney

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

1. Matt Kenseth
2. Kyle Busch
3. Joey Logano
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Kevin Harvick

Dark Horse: Greg Biffle

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Big 18: Ryan Newman

The field for the Chase is set now that the Richmond race is in the books with nobody getting knocked out that was in before the race started. Made for a bit of a boring race when no one was even close to bumping someone else out of the Chase, but that’s the way it goes some years. Congratulations to Denny Hamlin on winning his third race of the year and kudos to his pit crew for being on top of their game all season.

TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES 400

The Chase starts at Chicagoland Speedway this weekend and the next ten races will determine which of the sixteen qualifiers will win the 2016 Sprint Cup Championship. This is the first of many mile-and-a-half tracks on the schedule for the remainder of the season. Win and you automatically move on to the next round. After the next three races four drivers will be eliminated from contention and this continues until the final race at Homestead, where four drivers will vie for the championship in a best finish is champion scenario.

Kevin Harvick: I am going to pick Kevin to win the race this weekend and be the first automatic qualifier for the second round of the Chase. Kevin won the first two races run at this track and has finished in the top five in eight of his fifteen starts here. Last year he finished 42nd and that put him in a precarious position that he wants to avoid at all costs this year as he looks to reclaim his title of NASCAR champion.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has won two races at this track during his career which has only spanned seven races here. Right now there is a little bad blood between this Penske driver and Matt Kenseth who always seems to have an issue with either Brad or Joey Logano as we enter the Chase and during it. If Brad can stay clean and avoid the ire of other drivers he is racing close to on the track, he will be in contention to win this race.

Kyle Busch: The defending NASCAR champion won a race here back in 2008 and has finished in the top ten in his last four starts here. He has also led more laps than any of the other drivers here in the last two races. Running in the Xfinity series helps Kyle figure out the tracks and tire wear a little better than drivers who don’t get all of that seat time on Saturday and can be the difference between winning and losing a Cup race.

Denny Hamlin: Denny won this race last year and has momentum on his side as we enter the Chase. His pit crew has been outstanding lately and that helps Denny pass a lot of cars in the pits. If he can get a good pit stall selection and his crew continues to perform the way it has been, Denny will be a serious contender for his first NASCAR championship.

Kyle Larson: Kyle has only run two races at Chicagoland Speedway and he has finished no worse than seventh here while leading laps in both of those races. This is another team that has run very well every week for the past month and has had shots at winning the last three races. All of the Chip Ganassi teams have really been running well lately and showing speed on the track and that is a great sign for Kyle.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has run fifteen races at this track and has one win to show for it. The really impressive things about him here are that he has only failed to finish three laps in all of those races and he has led laps in ten of those fifteen races. Matt has his emotions under control when it comes to relaying information to his crew chief early in the race so their car is handling the way they want it to at the end of the race and giving them a shot at a win.

Joey Logano: Joey is looking for his first win at this track and he has improved with every race he has run here. He sat on the front row in two of his last three starts here and finished in the top ten in three of his last four starts. The Penske teams have been a close second to the Joe Gibbs teams all season with the speed and power of their cars and that show in the five races the two drivers have won so far this season.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has finished in the top ten in nine of his fifteen starts here. Although he is looking for his first win at this track, this team has the capability of winning on any track configuration at any time. I think he is better on the flatter tracks, but he has won on the mile-and-a-half tracks during his career and needs to do that if he wants to win his second championship.

Jimmie Johnson: The six time Sprint Cup Champion has struggled the past few years leading up to and through the Chase. They won their championships by being great at this type of track and need to get that magic back if they want to claim number seven. I think they are missing something with the new rules package that causes them to spin out more often now and once they figure out what that reason is they will go on another tear. The problem is they don’t have any more time to figure out what the problem is.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin is one of the favorites to win the championship this year as we head into the Chase. He has struggled at Chicagoland in the past having finished in the top ten only twice in the ten races he has run here. I think we can throw those statistics out the window because Martin has shown he can run on any track this season regardless of how he has run on them in the past. Barring any major catastrophes, this team will be one of the four teams still in when we get to Homestead.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR CHICAGOLAND SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

• Kevin Harvick
• Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

• Martin Truex Jr.
• Kyle Larson
• Ryan Newman
• Jamie McMurray

Yahoo Driver Group C

• Chase Elliott
• Ryan Blaney

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT INSERT TRACK NAME

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Kyle Busch
3. Martin Truex Jr.
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Matt Kenseth

Dark Horse: Chase Elliott

Stay Away From: Greg Biffle

Big 18: Chase Elliott

There is now only one race left before the start of the Chase and there are still a few unanswered questions. Can Chris Buescher remain in the top thirty in points and make the Chase? He currently holds an eleven point lead over David Ragan for that spot. Will a driver who hasn’t won a race yet this season win at Richmond and knock another driver out who would have made it on points? It can happen. Can Ryan Newman make up a seven point deficit on Jamie McMurray and take the final Chase spot away from him? We will find out the answers to all of these question on Saturday night!

FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400

Richmond International Raceway is a short-track. At just 3/4 of a mile and with only fourteen degrees of banking in the corners, starting towards the end of the field can lead to poor finishes in a hurry. Qualifying will be very important for all drivers, but especially important for those with Chase aspirations on the line. A poor qualifying effort or any reason a driver has to start at the rear of the field spells almost certain doom for a driver at this track.

Kyle Busch: Kyle is my pick to win the race this weekend at RIR. Kyle has won four times here in his career, which leads all active drivers. He also has finished in the top five in fifteen of his twenty-two starts and had led over one-thousand laps at this track. This is the perfect chance for him to win his fifth race of the season and be the number one ranked driver when he starts defending his Sprint Cup Championship from last year.
Kevin Harvick: Kevin probably would have won the race last week at Darlington if his team wouldn’t have had so many problems in the pits. There were three or four times where they had horrible stops and Kevin would lose a lot of spots that he had to make up on the track after dominating much of the early part of the race. With three wins and nineteen top ten finishes in thirty-one starts here, Kevin will give Kyle a run for his money this weekend.
Denny Hamlin: Denny had a great race last weekend and will try and build on that momentum this week at Richmond. He has led over fourteen-hundred laps at this track on his way to two wins and eleven top ten finishes in twenty starts here. This team looks to be improving and the right time of the year and just needs to stay consistent now. They have been one of the fastest teams on pit road all season and that in itself is a huge advantage for a driver.

Jeff Gordon: With Dale Earnhardt Jr. announcing he will not race again this season, Jeff and Alex Bowman will pilot the #88 for the rest of the season. This is one of Jeff’s weeks to drive the car once again. Though he hasn’t had the Jeff Gordon finishes we have come to expect throughout his career while subbing this year, you just never know when he is going to put another win in the books. With two wins, over sixteen-hundred laps led and thirty top ten finishes in his forty-six starts here, Jeff is someone you can use on your team.

Tony Stewart: Tony has won three times at this track and needs to get back to running well if he wants to make any noise once the Chase starts. I don’t expect NASCAR to issue any points penalties to Tony after he wrecked Brian Scott last weekend at Darlington, but he might get put on probation for the rest of the season which really doesn’t mean anything. His nineteen top ten finishes and 950 laps led here in thirty-four starts are reason enough to have him on your team this weekend.

Carl Edwards: Carl won the race here in April of this year for his second win at this track. This team really needs to become more consistent with the handling of their race car if they want to have a chance to win the championship this year. They have been terrible lately after qualifying well and we all know what happens to drivers who end up in the middle of the pack on restarts.

Jimmie Johnson: Speaking of a driver who needs to step up his game, Jimmie has really been struggling lately. They seem to have found some speed that they were lacking for a while, but they don’t seem to be getting the handling of the car right for Jimmie. This leads to spins and crashes when he tries to push the car harder than it is willing to go to make up time on the track. Still, he has won three times at this track so we know he can get the job done here.

Ryan Newman: Ryan’s lone win here came back in 2003. However, he hasn’t finished outside the top twenty since 2008 and has finished in the top ten in eight of the last fifteen races he has run here. He really needs to have another top ten and probably top five finish if he wants to make the Chase. I think he can do it, but there is going to be a lot of pressure on every single member of this team.

Kyle Larson: This is a team that has run very well the past two weeks while they won a race and had a chance at making it two. Kyle has only run five races at Richmond, but he has run them consistently well. He has never qualified worse than fifteenth here and has never finished worse than sixteenth. He has also completed every lap of every race he has run here. Another dark horse week for this team.

Chase Elliott: Chase has only run two races at this track and both of them have been in the spring. He has a twelfth and a sixteenth place finish in both of those races and just needs to stay out of trouble in this race and he will make the Chase. They can’t afford to wreck early and finish at the bottom of the pylon in this race or they could still miss out on making the Chase.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

• Kyle Busch
• Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

• Carl Edwards
• Kyle Larson
• Ryan Newman
• Tony Stewart

Yahoo Driver Group C

• Jeff Gordon
• Chase Elliott

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

1. Kyle Busch
2. Kevin Harvick
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Kyle Larson
5. Carl Edwards

Dark Horse: Tony Stewart

Stay Away From: Austin Dillon

Big 18: Tony Stewart

Congratulations to Kyle Larson who won his first ever Sprint Cup race at Michigan this past weekend. The win also propels him into the Chase and sets up what will be an interesting final two weeks before the start of the Chase. We now have thirteen different winners who are all in the top thirty in points going into the final stretch. Not all of them are guaranteed to remain in the top thirty in points, but as of right now there are only three spots open for drivers to get in on points and there are four drivers who are really fighting for those three positions in my opinion. A lot of pressure on these teams coming up over the next two races.

BOJANGLES’ SOUTHERN 500

This week the series heads to Darlington Raceway for the running of the famed Bojangles’ Southern 500. Darlington Raceway, also known as ‘The Lady in Black’ or ‘The Track Too Tough To Tame’ is a 1.366-mile egg shaped track in Darlington, South Carolina. This is the sight of one of the closest finishes in NASCAR history when back in March of 2003 Ricky Craven beat Kurt Busch be .002 seconds in a race where both drivers were banging off each other as they crossed the finish line.

Kevin Harvick: I am picking Kevin to get back in the win column this week at Darlington. I thought he was going to win last week at Michigan and he came away with a fifth place finish which is good in anyone’s book. Kevin has finished in the top five in his last three starts at this track and picked up the win here two years ago. He has also lead more laps here in the last two races than any other driver.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has three wins at this track and would like nothing better than to make it four and pick up some momentum as we close in on the Chase. With the three wins, nine top five, and twelve top ten finishes in seventeen starts here, this team is one of the most consistent when it comes to racing at Darlington. I think they give Kevin a run for his money.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff will be subbing for Dale Earnhardt Jr. once again this weekend. Jeff leads all active drivers with seven wins at this track. He also has nineteen top five and twenty-three top ten finishes here and could surprise a lot of people this weekend. He could also play spoiler for someone who needs to pick up a win to make the Chase even though Jeff isn’t running for the championship this year.

Kyle Larson: Kyle got his first win of his career last weekend and looks to continue that momentum this weekend. Kyle has only run two races at this track and has finished in the top ten in both of those starts. This team would like to build on what they accomplished in Michigan and build more confidence as they race for a championship this season.

Ryan Newman: Ryan is still looking for his first win of the season and his first win at this track. He also finds himself sitting on the outside looking in to the Chase at the present time. He can still get in on points, as he is only seven points behind Jamie McMurray right now or he can win one of the next two races and get in that way. He has been very consistent here finishing in the top ten eleven times in his seventeen starts. He needs to come away with another top ten finish this weekend to keep his hopes alive.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has one win, three runner-up finishes and a third place finish in only ten starts at this track. I look for this team to have another good race here and build some momentum of their own as we near the Chase. This team is looking to improve their communication between driver and crew-chief to make the correct adjustments as races progress so they can stay in the hunt late in races. They also need to cut down on pit road speeding penalties.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has had a long stretch of bad luck since winning three of his four races early this season. He had some more bad luck at Michigan last weekend and will be looking to get back to his winning ways this weekend. Kyle has finished in the top ten here in his last four starts and seven of his eleven starts overall at this track. He should be in the mix once again this weekend.

Carl Edwards: Carl won this race last season for the first time and has finished in the top ten in four of his last five starts here. It seems that all of the Joe Gibbs drivers run consistently well here and we have seen how strong their cars are on a weekly basis this year. This is one of those tracks where you need to be consistent on both ends and those ends are configured a bit differently. This is another track that caters to the old dirt track racers.

Tony Stewart: Tony is another driver looking for his first win at this track in his final season of racing in the Sprint Cup Series. Tony has always run well here finishing in the top ten in twelve of his twenty-three starts. He would like nothing better than to pick up that first win here in his last start and build a little momentum before the Chase begins.

Brad Keselowski: Brad finished second in this race last season after leading 196 laps and sitting on the pole for that race. This team always seems to get their car handling well enough to win races every week and with their four wins on the season already they have shown that they know how to finish those races. I look for Brad to be very competitive once again this weekend at Darlington.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DARLINGTON RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

• Kevin Harvick
• Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

• Carl Edwards
• Ryan Newman
• Kyle Larson
• Tony Stewart

Yahoo Driver Group C

• Jeff Gordon
• Chase Elliott

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DARLINGTON RACEWAY

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Carl Edwards
5. Kyle Busch

Dark Horse: Greg Biffle

Stay Away From: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Big 18: Carl Edwards

Congratulations to Kevin Harvick who picked up his second win of the season this past weekend at Bristol in another weather delayed race. Chris Buescher came away with a top five finish which moved him into thirtieth place in the points standings which would put him into the Chase if he can stay there for the next three races. The next big fight will be for who can still get in on points and who needs to win a race to make the Chase in the next three weeks.

Ryan Newman currently holds the last points position to make the Chase, but a new winner will knock him out too. There are still a handful of drivers who need to run very well over the next three races to give themselves a shot at getting their team into the Chase while Buescher and Tony Stewart must maintain their position in the standings to make their wins propel them at a chance to win a championship.

PURE MICHIGAN 400

Kevin Harvick: I am going to pick Kevin to win back to back races this week at Michigan. He has finished in the top five here in six of his last seven starts including five second place finishes. When you finish runner-up that many times in a short stretch you know you are doing something right and you just need that small piece of something going right to take the checkered flag.

Joey Logano: Joey won the race here in June and has won two of the past six races at this track. He has also finished in the top ten in his last seven starts here. This team has run really well at this type of track this season and that should continue this weekend. Look for Joey to compete against Kevin for the win.

Martin Truex Jr.: Speaking of drivers who have run well on this type of track this season let’s not forget about Martin. This team has been good on every type of track this year and really dominated at Charlotte in May. Look for this team to qualify well and run up front all day. If they hit their set up correctly at the start of the race, they could make this another runaway race.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is still looking for his first win at what he considers his home track and he always seems to run well here. He has finished in the top ten at Michigan in his last five starts and is tied for the series lead with four wins on the season. This team is solidly in the Chase and I think they will take any chance they can to try and win this race in Brad’s home state.
Matt Kenseth: Matt won this race last year and has always ran well on this track. With three wins, fourteen top five, and twenty top ten finishes in thirty-four starts here, Matt is one of the most consistent drivers on the circuit at this track. He had some more bad luck at Bristol last weekend that knocked him out of contention late in the race. Look for him to move to the front once again this weekend.

Carl Edwards: Carl is another driver who has run very well here throughout his entire career. With two wins, nine top five, and seventeen top ten finishes in only twenty-four starts, he is the only driver more consistent here than Matt is. With both of them driving for Joe Gibbs and those cars being the class of the field for most of the year, expect to see both of them vying for the win this weekend.

Chase Elliott: Chase has only run one race here which was back in June, but he finished second in that race and had a fast car all day. This team is going to win a race real soon and this might be the weekend that he does it. He has run well each and every week and just seems to be getting closer and closer to breaking through for his first Sprint Cup Series win. It won’t be a big surprise when it happens.

Kyle Larson: Kyle needs to pick up or win or run really well the next three races if he wants to make the Chase. This team seems to be good in most of the races they run, but always seems to run into some kind of trouble on the track late in the race. They are either getting caught up in somebody’s wreck or hitting the wall on their own because Kyle likes to run the real high line. That is the way to get around Michigan so this might be his week.

Dale Earnhardt Jr./Alex Bowman: I am not sure if Dale will be back this week or not. We will have to watch the entry list and the news to see what his status is. This is one of the tracks where he really excels and if he comes back this week he knows he will need a win to make the Chase. If he is out once again this weekend, Alex Bowman will be back in the car subbing for him and the car will be set up the same in either case.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has only won once at this track, but he usually has a great handling car here. This team really needs to step up their game on this type of track and the intermediate tracks if they want to seriously threaten for another championship. This is the time of the year where you need to start running consistently and winning races. I think they will be fast once again this weekend.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

• Kevin Harvick
• Joey Logano

Yahoo Driver Group B

• Carl Edwards
• Martin Truex Jr.
• Kyle Larson
• Kasey Kahne

Yahoo Driver Group C

• Chase Elliott
• Alex Bowman

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Joey Logano
3. Matt Kenseth
4. Carl Edwards
5. Martin Truex Jr.

Dark Horse: Chase Elliott

Stay Away From: Trevor Bayne

Big 18: Chase Elliott