Author: Jeff Gutowski

Congratulations to Denny Hamlin for racing his way into the round of 8. That’s was a huge win for this team seeing the next two races can be very tough on the rest of the playoff drivers who are still trying to advance.

YELLAWOOD 500

This week the series heads back to the Talladega Superspeedway for the running of the YellaWood 500. This is a restrictor plate race which means any driver who starts this race can win it. There is such a potential for the Big One to take out so many cars that no one is safe here. I think that potential gets even greater with it being a playoff race where some drivers will take an even bigger chance on making a move that might cause one of those wrecks.

Aric Almirola: I’m going to go out on a limb and pick Aric to win this weekend. He has a win and eight top ten finishes in his last ten Talladega starts. If he can stay out of trouble in the early stages of the race he will be a contender at the end and could take away a win from someone in the playoffs who might need it to advance.

Ryan Blaney: Ryan has been running very well lately and has won two of the last four races at this track. He has also scored stage points in all but two of the last eighteen stages run here. That tells me he runs towards the front of the pack for the most part which cuts down on the chance of getting caught up in a wreck until those up front really start making moves.

Joey Logano: Joey has won two races here in his career and has led laps in eleven of the last twelve races run here. That means he has a car that drafts well at this track and gets a lot of people to help him out in the draft. In fact, all of the Penske drivers really run well here each and every time they visit this track.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has six career wins at Talladega. I just don’t know what to think about this team right now as they haven’t been running very well lately, but this is a restrictor plate race where anyone can win. I think that gives Brad a chance this week to win a race and move into the round of eight. Do I use him here or wait for a short track at the end of the season? That is my dilemma right now.

Denny Hamlin: Denny won this race last year and has finished in the top five in four of his last six starts at Talladega. He also runs very well at Daytona all the time. He doesn’t need to win either of the next two races to advance now that he won at Las Vegas, but I’m sure they will go for the win, but might just push a teammate to victory to help them advance also. Either way I think they run towards the front on the pack again.

Chase Elliott: Chase won here a couple of years ago and currently has a twenty-two point cushion to work with. Twenty-two points isn’t a lot when you head to a restrictor plate track. An early incident can knock you out of the race and other drivers can score stage points and easily put you behind the eight ball so to speak. He just needs to be careful early on and then go for it towards the end of the race to try and protect that cushion.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Ricky is pretty much a wild card on a wild card weekend. He runs very well at the restrictor plate tracks, but takes a lot of chances very early in the races in my opinion which leads to him causing some wrecks. That in turn leads to many drivers not wanting to help him in the draft. If he can make it to the late stages of the race all of those concerns go out the window and any driver will go with someone who will get them to the front of the pack.

Ryan Newman: Ryan is another driver who could potentially take a win away from a playoff driver this week. In his five starts here with Roush/Fenway Racing he has three top ten finishes with one of those being a runner-up finish. This is very likely his last year in the Cup series and this might be one of his best chances to win one last race.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin hasn’t run consistently well at this track in his career, but he is smart enough to know that he needs to stay out of trouble early on here. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him and some other drivers fall back from the lead pack and just drive around the track early on and wait until closer to the end to get back into the mix. He might need a win to advance. The thing is, if you fall back to stay safe early on you can’t get any stage points.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Ryan Blaney

Driver Group Game Group B

• Aric Almirola
• Ryan Newman

Driver Group Game Group C

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

1. Aric Almirola
2. Ryan Blaney
3. Joey Logano
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Michael McDowell

Stay Away From: Martin Truex Jr.

Big 18: Ryan Newman

The round of sixteen is in the books and the twelve who advance have been determined. The biggest upset in my eyes was that Kurt Busch didn’t have a very good car at Bristol last Saturday night and never got it dialed in. Because of that he has been eliminated and Chip Ganassi has lost his last chance to win a Cup Championship.

SOUTH POINT 400

This week the series heads west to the Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the running of the South Point 400. This is an intermediate track and most of the drivers will really want this one because the next two races are a restrictor plate race and a road course. This is the one they will feel most comfortable at because no one knows what will happen in the next two races after this.

Kyle Larson: You have to stick with the hot hand and that has been Kyle for most of the season. He won the spring race at this track and has finished in the top three in four of his last seven starts at Las Vegas. I don’t see much changing for this team for the rest of the season and it is going to take an awful lot of bad luck to eliminate them from the playoffs.

Martin Truex Jr.: With two wins and five top five finishes in his last eight starts here, Martin is someone you can use in the A group. The Gibbs teams have shown a bit more speed the second half of the season and are getting close to being as good as the Hendrick teams every week.

Joey Logano: Joey has won two of the last five races he has run at this track and has finished in the top ten in nine of his last eleven starts here. The Penske teams haven’t shown a lot of consistency, but Ryan Blaney did win back to back races very recently, so they should still be able to run well this weekend.

Ryan Blaney: This is another Penske driver who has been very good at this track. He has finished in the top seven in seven of his last nine starts here. It’s only a matter of time before he picks up his first win at this track and now would be the perfect time to do it.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has two wins at this track with the most recent one coming during the 2018 season. I still don’t think this team has much figured out yet. Especially at these intermediate tracks. He could surprise, but I don’t want to take a chance on him here. Maybe on a shorter track or a road course.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has eight top five finishes in his last twelve starts at Las Vegas to go with three wins during that stretch. He hasn’t run particularly well lately, but this is one of those tracks where he is very good. If he has a car that is handling well early on in the race they might be able to keep up with changing track conditions and pull off a win to help them advance.

Kyle Busch: Kyle hasn’t won a race here since the 2009 season. He has looked better than last season, but they still have some issues to work out. I think I’ll save any starts I have left for him for another day, He just isn’t consistent enough here for me to take a chance on him this week.

Denny Hamlin: Denny is still looking for his first win at this track and like Kyle he isn’t all that consistent here. Although, he has finished in the top five in each of his last two starts. Once again I think there are better tracks to use him at over the stretch run.

Chase Elliott: Chase hasn’t been all that consistent at this track either, but the Hendrick teams have shown the most speed all year and that means he should be a contender once again this weekend. Hopefully he and Kevin Harvick have their differences worked out and won’t let that spill over onto the track

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Joey Logano

Driver Group Game Group B

• Aric Almirola
• Tyler Reddick

Driver Group Game Group C

• Chase Briscoe

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

1. Kyle Larson
2. Joey Logano
3. Martin Truex Jr.
4. Ryan Blaney
5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Alex Bowman

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Big 18: Brad Keselowski

Congratulations to Martin Truex Jr. who punched his ticket to the second round of the playoffs with his Richmond win. Two races down and one to go before the second round gets underway.

BASS PRO SHOPS NIGHT RACE

This week the series heads to the Bristol Motor Speedway for the running of the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. This will be a go or go home race for a lot of the playoff drivers. I think Michael McDowell will need to win to advance although there are other scenarios where he can get in without winning, but all of those long shots.

Kurt Busch and Alex Bowman are tied in points for the last spot in the round of twelve with Busch winning the tie breaker as of now. Tyler Reddick is only five points back of those two and Aric Almirola has a three point lead on Busch and Bowman. Then Kyle Busch sits in tenth with only an eight point cushion. There are still others that can get knocked out easily enough, but those are the closest in either direction.

Kyle Busch: I’m picking Kyle to win this week and ensure himself a spot in the round of twelve. He has won three of the last seven races he has run at Bristol and has six top five finishes in those races. It seems when someone really needs to do something they can do it and Kyle is one of the most talented drivers in the whole series.

Kurt Busch: Kurt is another driver who has to have a good showing here to advance to the next round. His last win came in the 2018 season and he has won here six times in his career. He has finished in the top ten in four of his last five starts here and is another driver who seems to do what he needs to do to advance.

Denny Hamlin: Once again this team has a lot of confidence as this playoffs has gotten underway and they won the first race of these playoffs. Denny won his race in 2019 and has four top five finishes in his last ten Bristol starts. However, those are also the only top ten finishes he has in those starts too. He doesn’t need to do anything to advance, so nothing bad can happen to him this week.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won this race last season, but is still looking for his first win this year. In his three starts before last years win he didn’t finish in the top ten at all, but prior to those three races he has a string of seven straight top ten finishes. This team needs to start winning races if they want to have a shot at a championship this year.

Kyle Larson: The odds on favorite to win this year’s championship, Kyle is looking for his first career win here, but he did finish runner-up in both of the 2018 races. He has five top ten finishes in his last six starts and he is much better this year with his new team than he has been in the past and is a threat to win at any track on any given week.

Chase Elliott: Last years champion has his work cut out for him if he wants to repeat this year, but he’s been pretty good at Bristol, especially during the fall race. He has won three of the last four stages run here and has three top seven finishes in his last five starts at Bristol. This race isn’t that critical for this team so they don’t have a lot of pressure this week.

Joey Logano: There isn’t a lot of talk about Joey once again this year, but this team can sneak up on the competition. I don’t think a lot of the fans give Joey much of a thought when there are other drivers to use. Yet, he always seems to run better than you expect from him, while when you really think he might run well he can disappoint. He has two career wins at this track and should make the second round no matter what happens this week.

Brad Keselowski: Brad won the May race here last season and finished third in the race before that. However, those are the only good races he has run at Bristol in his last ten starts. This team isn’t consistent enough here to warrant our taking a chance on them. This might be the end of the playoffs for Brad as he doesn’t hold a very large lead over the thirteenth place driver.

Alex Bowman: Alex has only finished in the top ten twice in his six starts with Hendrick and he’s going to need one of those finishes most likely this week if he wants to advance. Once again here’s a driver who isn’t consistent enough at this track to have us use him in our lineups this week.

Ryan Blaney: Ryan runs very well here, but doesn’t come away with the finishing position they would hope for. He has lead 439 laps in his last six races at Bristol but has only one top five and two top ten finishes in those starts and one of those was in a race he never lead a lap. He won two races heading into the playoffs and has a twenty-eight point cushion in the standings, so he should make the second round unless something goes terribly wrong.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Denny Hamlin

Driver Group Game Group B

• Kurt Busch
• Austin Dillon

Driver Group Game Group C

• Daniel Suarez

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY

1. Kyle Busch
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Kyle Larson
4. Kurt Busch
5. Chase Elliott

Dark Horse: Austin Dillon

Stay Away From: Martin Truex Jr.

Big 18: Ryan Blaney

Denny Hamlin picked a perfect time to win his first race of the season taking the opening checkered flag of the playoffs. Now he’s guaranteed to be in the round of twelve, but not without thwarting a bold move by Kyle Larson. That just shows you how much these wins mean in the playoffs. I don’t know if Kyle would have tried that move in the regular season if he already had a win.

FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400 SALUTE TO FIRST RESPONDERS

This week the series heads to the Richmond Raceway for the running of the Federated Auto Parts 400. This is a flat short track where handling will mean more than speed. This three-quarter mile track also means that pit stall selection is crucial here. That’s why I wish there was practice and qualifying at a track like this. It really has nothing to do with last week’s race.

Martin Truex Jr.: Even though the Gibbs drivers haven’t won either of the last two races run here, I think they are the ones to watch this weekend and Martin is my pick to win. He swept the races here in the 2019 season and then followed that up with a second place finish in 2020. In his last five races Martin has posted two wins, one second, one third and a fifth place finish while leading more laps than any other driver at this track.

Kyle Busch: The second of my Gibbs picks, Kyle won both races here in 2018. In fact besides those two wins, he has also finished second three times and in the top ten in ten of his last eleven starts at Richmond. After a disappointing finish last week this team feels they need a win to advance to the next round. This could be the place for him to do it.

Denny Hamlin: Our third Gibbs driver on our list is last week’s winner. Does that mean the Denny will be content now that he has a win? No! He would like to win again and grab some valuable playoff points. He’s been every bit as good as his teammates at this track coming away with seven top five finishes in his last nine starts here with one win.

Alex Bowman: While he only lead ten laps in the spring race Alex came away with the win. After having his own disappointments in last week’s race this team will be doing whatever they can to repeat that spring performance. The stakes are high for the rest of the season. Besides winning this spring Alex finished ninth here last year and those are his only top ten finished at this track.

Brad Keselowski: Brad won the race here last fall, but this team hasn’t been running all that well for most of the second half of the regular season. He has two career wins at this track and has finished in the top ten eight times in his last eleven races here. They are going to have to become more consistent if they want to keep advancing.

Joey Logano: Joey also has two career wins here with his last win coming during the 2017 season. He has been very consistent here with nine top five finishes in his last fifteen starts including both of those wins. Only twice during that stretch has he failed to finish in the top ten and his worst finish was fourteenth. Could be a great pick for those trying to make up some ground.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin finished twenty-fourth at Richmond this spring, but that was a huge anomaly. He is much better than that at this track. This is why. That was his worst finish here in his last twenty-three starts. In those other twenty-two starts he has two wins, eleven top five and sixteen top ten finishes. Another model of consistency at this track and still looking for his first win of the season.

Chase Elliott: Now, Chase has only run fifteen races here in his career which is way less than most of the older drivers. He hasn’t been the most consistent here either. However, he has improved a bit with three top five finishes in his last six starts. I still think there are better tracks to use this Hendrick driver at. Especially with another road course on the schedule.

Kyle Larson: Kyle won the fall race in the 2017 season at this track. However, like Chase I think there are better places to use him if you have any starts left. He just hasn’t been consistent enough here and we know he has run well at all other types of tracks. Still, five top ten finishes in his last eight starts is good, but I think he can be better than that.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR RICHMOND RACEWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Martin Truex Jr.

Driver Group Game Group B

• Kyle Busch
• Christopher Bell

Driver Group Game Group C

• Michael McDowell

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT RICHMOND RACEWAY

1. Martin Truex Jr.
2. Kyle Busch
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Joey Logano
5. Kevin Harvick

Dark Horse: Christopher Bell

Stay Away From: Ryan Blaney

Big 18: Kevin Harvick

The playoff drivers are set now, but not without a little drama as there was almost a first time winner last weekend at Daytona. That would have knocked out someone who was trying to get in on points and catapulted a driver with a lower point total into the playoffs by virtue of a win. At any rate no such thing happened and the playoffs are set to start this weekend.

COOK OUT SOUTHERN 500

The first race in the round of sixteen will take place at the famed Darlington Raceway for the running of the Cook Out Southern 500. This will be the second race at Darlington this season with Martin Truex Jr. winning the earlier race. Can he repeat and guarantee himself a spot in the round of twelve?

Kyle Larson: I’m predicting Kyle wins this race and denies Martin the sweep this year. Kyle finished second to Martin this spring and has been the more consistent of these two drivers. Kyle is the odds on favorite to win the championship this year and if he can win the first race of the playoffs that will take a lot of pressure off of him and give him some more valuable playoff points.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin made it into the playoffs this season without a win and that won’t win you a championship. He also has ground to make up to ensure that he makes the round of twelve and this might be the track where he can break into the win column this season. In his last eleven starts at Darlington, Kevin has three wins, nine top five finishes and hasn’t finished outside the top ten.

Denny Hamlin: Another driver who is winless so far this season, Denny has also been pretty good at Darlington lately. In his last nine starts at this track he has won twice, and finished in the top five six times. He might have a better chance than Kevin of picking up his first win of the season as the Gibbs cars have shown more speed than the Stewart-Haas cars all year.

Kyle Busch: I think Kyle is a dark horse to win the championship this year, but don’t count him out. This team can start running consistently well at any time and this is the time they would like to do just that. Kyle hasn’t won here since the 2008 season, but in his last twelves starts he has finished in the top seven ten times. That’s a model of consistency right there.

William Byron: Another driver who could be considered a dark horse in the playoffs, William has finished in the top five in his last two starts at this track. As with any other driver in the playoffs, a win would be huge for this team. Will they be happy just making the round of twelve? Doubtful, once you make the playoffs you have to set goals to make each additional round without looking too far ahead.

Martin Truex Jr.: As mentioned earlier, Martin won the spring race here this year and has two wins in his career at Darlington. The issue is this team hasn’t been running as well as they are capable and I don’t know if that’s due to the fact there are no practice sessions at most of the races this year or what the problem is. If he can get back to running as well as he did earlier in the year they could give Larson a run for his money.

Joey Logano: Joey is still looking for his first career win at this track, but he has finished second here. Still he isn’t consistent enough at this track for me to consider using him this week even if I need to make up points in my league. I think there will be other opportunities to use Joey, it just isn’t this weekend.

Kurt Busch: Another driver looking for his first career win at Darlington, Kurt has finished in the top ten in five of his last seven starts here. Another driver many consider to be a long shot to win the championship this year. Can he surprise people? He’s going to have to win at least a couple of races to make that happen.

Brad Keselowski: I’m not sure what to think about this team seeing Brad is leaving at the end of the season. At least they are separating amicably. I’m sure the Roger Penske is happy for Brad and he would still like to win a championship no matter which one of his drivers does it. Brad has three top ten finishes in his last six starts including a win here in 2018.

Chase Elliott: The defending champion hasn’t run consistently well at this track through his career with only four top ten finishes in nine starts. They are going to have to step up their game somewhat if they want to repeat as champions. He should make it to the round of twelve easy enough and there’s a road course in that round, but once in the round of eight he’s going to have to start winning again.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DARLINGTON RACEWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Kevin Harvick

Driver Group Game Group B

• Kurt Busch
• Christopher Bell

Driver Group Game Group C

• Chase Briscoe

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DARLINGTON RACEWAY

1. Kyle Larson
2. Kevin Harvick
3. Martin Truex Jr.
4. Kyle Busch
5. Denny Hamlin

Dark Horse: Erik Jones

Stay Away From: Michael McDowell

Big 18: Kurt Busch