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Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 ATLANTA, FOLDS OF HONOR QUIKTRIP 500

This week’s race in Atlanta will be hard-pressed to have a better racing stretch than the final twenty laps at Daytona. Congratulations to Joey Logano on earning the first win of the season. The NASCAR series moves north for a newly-scheduled March race in Atlanta. For Fantasy Live, the strategy changes from the restrictor plate tracks. This week, my suggested strategy is to front-load your lineup with the top drivers and fill in your final two roster spots with budget drivers.

The first pick on my team dominated the majority of the race last year. Kevin Harvick was in front of the race until a late wreck sent him to an average finish. With 296 laps led and 179 fast laps, Harvick is the best in the series in both categories over the last five races. His lap-to-lap performance over the same time span is second to Jeff Gordon. His historical numbers are not as impressive, with only seven Top 10 finishes in his last 16 Atlanta starts, but I feel his recent success overcomes his historical data.

Jeff Gordon has the best number in the series at Hampton. He was on my team last year when he wrecked early in the race. He was running some of the fastest laps in the field, but there were not enough cautions in the race for Gordon to get back on the lead lap. Over the last five races, Gordon has an average finish position of 7.8 and has the best lap-to-lap performance in the series. Since 2005, Gordon has finished in the Top Ten eleven times and the Top Twenty fifteen times. Gordon has an excellent chance for success this weekend.

By a narrow margin, Jimmie Johnson beat out Matt Kenseth for the third roster spot. Kenseth has more recent success, but Johnson has better long-term numbers at the track. Also, I think the Hendrick cars will have a slight advantage with the new setup rules. Johnson has a 14th place average over the last five races. Historically, he boasts eight Top Five finishes in sixteen races. I like his chances on my team this weekend.

With three of the top drivers in the series on my roster, there is little room for the final two roster spots. Regan Smith’s value climbed to $7.50 this week. With Kurt Busch’s equipment, he should provide great value at that price. Keep an eye on his status towards the end of the week, as he is expecting a child anytime. Michael Annett finished 21st in last year’s race. If he comes close to that number, he will be be a valuable choice.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers ever week, Fantasy Live uses a Salary Cap format. Our formula uses the number from the last five races at a given track. We calculate the average number of points earned by each driver. Then, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to identify the driver with the best value. Matt Kenseth is one of the most consistent drivers in the series, but is being left off my roster in favor of Jimmie Johnson. As a consolation prize, we will use his numbers to illustrate our formula.

MATT KENSETH AT ATLANTA

  • Average finish position last five Atlanta races: 8.6 average equals 35.4 Fantasy Live Points
  • Start to finish differential: Plus 1.6 = 1.6 Fantasy Live Points
  • Laps led: 117 laps led = 11.7 Fantasy Live Points
  • Fast laps: 63 fast laps = 6.3 Fantasy Live Points
  • Total Fantasy Live points per race: 55 points per race
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $26
  • Fantasy Points Per Race: 55 points / $26 = 2.11 points per dollar

Please review the numbers below for each driver’s points per fantasy dollar. Suggested picks are in bold and good luck building on your early success in the 2015.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 3.02
  • Jeff Gordon 2.44
  • Matt Kenseth 2.11
  • Denny Hamlin 1.92
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.53
  • Joey Logano 1.53
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.35
  • Jamie McMurray 1.24
  • Kyle Larson 1.20
  • Brad Keselowski 0.97
  • Kasey Kahne 0.53

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Tony Stewart 2.46
  • Carl Edwards 1.96
  • Paul Menard 1.22
  • Ryan Newman 1.21
  • Greg Biffle 1.13
  • Clint Bowyer 0.39

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Martin Truex 2.38
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.55
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.34
  • Aric Almirola 1.17
  • Austin Dillon 1.15

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Trevor Bayne 4.09
  • Danica Patrick 2.52
  • Justin Allgaier 2.30
  • Casey Mears 1.80
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.71

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Regan Smith 4.53
  • Landon Cassill 3.88
  • Reed Sorenson 3.62
  • Michael Annett 3.37
  • JJ Yeley 2.95
  • Ty Dillon 2.87
  • Brett Moffitt 2.83
  • Cole Whitt 2.82
  • David Gilliland 2.62
  • David Ragan 1.23
  • Alex Bowman 0.60
  • Josh Wise 0.60
Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 DAYTONA, DAYTONA 500

We are a few days away from the beginning of another NASCAR season!

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The Daytona 500 is one of the most anticipated races of the NASCAR schedule. For Fantasy Racing purposes, the restrictor plates and the changes in the car setup requirements will make week one very challenging. This article will indicate which drivers have a successful history at Daytona.

My suggestion is to find the drivers who qualify at the back of the field. Start-to-finish differential will be the key to success because we rarely see a dominant car leading a significant amount of laps during restrictor plate races. You can already take Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson out of your lineups.

The driver with the best average finish position over the last five races will find his way onto many fantasy lineups this weekend. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has an average finish position of 8th place during his last five Daytona races and has logged the most Fantasy Live points during the same time span. Since 2005, Junior has seven top-5 finishes and 15 top-20 finishes in his last 20 races. Junior is the best driver to choose this weekend unless he qualifies near the front of the field.

Matt Kenseth is a driver with great lap-to-lap performance data at Daytona who has finished in the middle of the pack in recent years. He has led the most laps over the last five races and ties Dale Earnhardt Jr. for the best lap-to-lap data. His fantasy points per race are low due to a negative start-to-finish differential. Kenseth has the second-best lap-to-lap performance since 2005 (behind Kyle Busch). His 14 top-20 finishes since 2005 is second only to Dale Earnhardt Jr. If Kenseth qualifies near the back of the pack, he should be considered in your lineup.

A driver who has quietly experienced recent success at the Florida track is my first bargain suggestion. Casey Mears has an average finish position of 14th over the past five races. At a $12 value, having the driver with the fourth-best average finish position is worth a shot. Since 2005, Mears has an average finish position of 21.3 and nine top-20 finishes in 17 races. In a race where many of the lower drivers are valuable, Mears stands out as one of the top bargain options.

At a $13 cap value, I anticipate Danica Patrick will find her way onto many fantasy lineups this weekend. Over her past five races at Daytona, Patrick has an average finish position of 17.5. Patrick also has two top-10 finishes in her last five Daytona races. While her numbers are not impressive enough to burn an allocation in a Yahoo league, she is an excellent selection in a salary cap league this week.

The original fifth choice on my team was Ricky Stenhouse Jr. before I realized I had enough cap room for Austin Dillon. Dillon, with a 15th place average finish position, has the fifth-best average finish position in the series over the last five races. Dillon has two top-10 finishes in three Daytona races. For all drivers, keep an eye on the qualifying order along with the value numbers below for the best chance of success.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com uses a scoring system that combines finish position, start-to-finish differential, fast laps, and laps led. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers ever week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap structure. Our formula uses the date form the last five Daytona races. For each driver, we calculate the average number of points earned. Then, we divide that number of points by the salary cap figure on Fantasy Live. The end result is a number that shows how many points to expect from each driver.

Greg Biffle has seen recent success at Daytona, but missed the cut for my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use his Daytona numbers to illustrate the formula.

GREG BIFFLE AT DAYTONA

  • Average finish position last five Daytona races: 10.8 equals 33 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative six equals -6 points per race
  • Laps led: 52 laps = 5.2 points per race
  • Fast laps: 14 = 1.4 points per race
  • Total points per race last five Daytona races: 33.6
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $23.00
  • Points per race: 33.6 / 23 equals 1.46 points per fantasy dollar

See this week’s fantasy live points per dollar numbers below with my picks highlighted in bold. Good luck with your picks for Daytona.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.89
  • Brad Keselowski 1.77
  • Denny Hamlin 1.74
  • Jimmy Johnson 1.40
  • Jamie McMurray 1.38
  • Joey Logano 1.23
  • Matt Kenseth 1.09
  • Kyle Busch 1.01
  • Jeff Gordon 0.70
  • Kevin Harvick 0.57
  • Kasey Kahne (-0.04)
  • Kyle Larson (-0.17)

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kurt Busch 1.59
  • Ryan Newman 1.56
  • Greg Biffle 1.46
  • Aric Almirola 1.16
  • Tony Stewart 0.98
  • Clint Bowyer 0.88
  • Carl Edwards 0.77
  • Paul Menard 0.56

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 1.33
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.01
  • Ryan Blaney 0.47
  • AJ Allmendinger 0.11
  • Sam Hornish Jr. (-0.34)

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Bobby Labonte 4.27
  • Michael Waltrip 3.46
  • Casey Mears 3.05
  • Justin Allgaier 2.85
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.54
  • Danica Patrick 2.50
  • Trevor Bayne 0.75

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • JJ Yeley 8.22
  • Alex Bowman 4.88
  • Michael McDowell 4.27
  • Reed Sorenson 3.00
  • Michael Annett 3.00
  • Landon Cassill 2.97
  • Ty Dillon 2.50
  • David Ragan 2.17
  • Josh Wish 1.91
  • Brian Scott 0.87
  • David Gilliland 0.53

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  • LEAGUE NAME: Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet
  • LEAGUE PASSWORD: nascar
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

HOW TO PLAY NASCAR FANTASY LIVE TO WIN

Welcome to the 2015 NASCAR season!

As Fantasy NASCAR players, we begin another year of deciding which drivers will carry us to victory. This season, we will have a weekly article posted on Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet committed specifically to finding the best bargain drivers on Fantasy Live. The goal of this article is to provide an overview of how to play Fantasy Live and some basic strategies that are used in this format.

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NASCAR FANTASY LIVE SCORING METHOD

The scoring system on NASCAR Fantasy Live combines 1) Finish Position, 2) Start-to-finish differential, 3) Laps led, 4) Fast laps.

The benefit to this format is that the statistics reward drivers based on how they drive throughout the race. I love the Yahoo Fantasy Racing format, but get frustrated when I pick a team that dominates the race only to blow a tire in the last ten laps and ruin my week. In Fantasy Live, you will at least be rewarded for Fast Laps and Laps Led for the race.

Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format to prevent you from simply starting the best drivers every week. You have to choose five drivers ever week and are limited a $100 salary cap.

The top drivers in the series typically carry a salary cap figure of $28. Every week, you also need to select a pit crew and manufacturer for additional bonus points. Last season, Chevrolet won the most consistent manufacturer. Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth were two of the more consistent pit crews last season. My suggestion would be to pick one of these crews for the first few weeks until we find out which pit crews are having success in 2015.

There are a few different strategies that you can use when selecting a roster for Fantasy Live. Every strategy has strengths and weaknesses.

MY TOP-4 STRATEGY TIPS FOR NASCAR FANTASY LIVE

#1 : FRONT-LOAD YOUR LINEUP

This is my suggested strategy for most weeks.

Because Fantasy Live rewards drivers for Laps Led and Fast Laps, your team can win your league if you can pick a dominant car. This strategy is especially recommended on short tracks like Dover and Martinsville. With 500 laps at these tracks, dominant cars have the opportunity to rack up several hundred points. If you pick the top-3 drivers at a track, you usually have about $20 remaining for the other two drivers in your lineup.

I do not recommend this strategy for Daytona and Talladega because there is rarely a dominant team due to the nature of the restrictor plate tracks.

#2 : CHOOSE THE POOR QUALIFIERS

Another common strategy is to start drivers who qualify near the back of the field. This way you can gain points as your driver charges through the field.

Usually, I do not solely lean on this strategy. However, if I see a driver I ranked near the top qualify at the back of the field, I may consider switching my driver. The drawback to this strategy is that drivers often qualify at the back of the field for a reason. Sometimes, they stay at the back of the field all race and provide no value to your team.

This strategy is recommended at Daytona and Talladega.

#3 : STICK WITH A BARGAIN DRIVER

Sometimes, a driver is undervalued at the beginning of the season (see Kyle Larson 2014). If you can lock up a driver early in the year and keep him on your roster, you can have more overall value than the other players in your league as the season progresses.

Driver values change throughout the year based on their performance. Drivers to keep an eye on early in the season include Sam Hornish Jr. and Trevor Bayne. Generally, I avoid this strategy because I prefer to choose drivers on a race-to-race basis. If you are a casual player and do not obsess over your roster on a week-to-week basis, sticking with a bargain driver may be the best option for your team.

#4 : MY WEEKLY NASCAR FANTASY LIVE ARTICLE

Watch for my weekly NASCAR Fantasy Live article posted on our website that is specific to the Fantasy Live scoring format.

In the article, we look at the average points earned by each driver over the last five races at a particular track. Then, we divide the point value by the salary cap figure to determine how many points to expect from each driver. The final number can show where to find value for your roster.

The Accupredict Method, Fantasy Statistics Wizard, and weekly articles on this site are a valuable resource to help with your lineup decisions. We look forward to seeing you throughout the season, and good luck with your 2015 Fantasy Racing season!

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  • LEAGUE NAME: Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet
  • LEAGUE PASSWORD: nascar
Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Homestead-Miami, EcoBoost 400

This week’s championship race at Homestead will have a difficult time matching the excitement generated by the Phoenix race. When the dust settled in Arizona, we are left with four drivers who could win the title this week.

While he has been out of my Fantasy Live lineup most of the season, Carl Edwards has a track history that makes him a front-runner this week. Edwards has 5 Top Five finishes in his last 9 Homestead races. His lap-to-lap performance is the best in the series as evidenced by 86% of his laps in the Top 15 and an average running position of 7.9 since 2005. He is also on top of the series in laps led and fast laps. Over his last five Homestead races, Edwards has the best average finish position in the series and will be a contributor in my lineup.

The second choice for my lineup is one of the four drivers vying for a championship. Kevin Harvick has 4 Top Five finishes in his last 9 Homestead races. With 75% of his laps in the Top 15 and an average running position of 10.9 since 2005, Harvick is the fourth-best driver in lap-to-lap performance. Considering his dominant effort at Phoenix, Harvick is a great choice for your roster this week.

I had a difficult time deciding between Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin for the third roster spot. While Kenseth has better numbers at the track, Hamlin will be my pick due to his chance to win the season title. Picking contenders will make the race more exciting to watch from a fantasy perspective. Hamlin has a ninth place average finish position over the last five races and the fourth-most laps led. With 4 Top Five finishes in his last 9 races, Hamlin could easily find a way to win the championship. Cases can also be made to start Martin Truex Jr. if you need to gain points on the leaders. He has excellent track data.

For Fantasy Racing, your strategy should reflect your position in the standings. Leaders should take a conservative approach and start the drivers with the highest probability for success. Those of us behind in the standings should take risks with drivers in order to gain points on the other players. Your level of risk should coincide with how many points you are behind the leaders. Whatever your strategy, we will have champions this time next week in NASCAR and in our fantasy leagues. Good luck as you try to capture your league title.

There was not a ton of salary cap room available after selecting the top three drivers. Hamlin and Edwards have a salary cap figure that is a little lower than some of the top drivers I have been recommending. As a result of the extra space, I had enough cap room to afford Justin Allgaier this week. While Allgaier does not have any track data, he has a 26th place average finish position in 2014. He was a slightly better option than some of the other budget options. With the remaining salary cap, the fifth selection will be Brian Scott. While Scott only has a 33rd place average in 2014 races, he should provide decent value at a $7.25 salary cap figure.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com uses a scoring system that combines laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start to finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula simply calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points accumulated by each driver over the last five Homestead races and divides that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number that indicates how many points to expect from each salary cap figure. Matt Kenseth has some of the best track data at Homestead and is one of the best drivers in the series in 2014, but he missed the cut for my lineup. As a consolation prize, we will use his Homestead data to illustrate the formula.

MATT KENSETH AT HOMESTEAD-MIAMI

  • Average finish position last five Homestead races: 9th place equals 35 points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 4 equals 4 points
  • Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Laps Led: 162 laps equals 16.2 points
  • Average Fantasy Live points per race: 55.20
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.75
  • Fantasy Points per dollar: 55.20 divided by 27.75 equals 1.99

Since this is the first race at Homestead this season, several rookies have not raced at the track. For these rookies, we will use their 2014 data to give you an idea how many points to expect from them. See the Fantasy Live points per dollar figures below with this week’s suggestions in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Carl Edwards 2.82
  • Kevin Harvick 1.99
  • Matt Kenseth 1.99
  • Clint Bowyer 1.75
  • Ryan Newman 1.37
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.36
  • Jeff Gordon 1.33
  • Brad Keselowski 0.97
  • Jimmie Johnson 0.88
  • Joey Logano 0.73

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Denny Hamlin 2.65
  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.44
  • Tony Stewart 2.36
  • Aric Almirola 2.05
  • Brian Vickers 1.66
  • Kyle Larson 1.48
  • Austin Dillon 1.41
  • Kasey Kahne 1.33
  • Greg Biffle 1.04
  • Paul Menard 0.94
  • Jamie McMurray 0.84
  • Marcus Ambrose 0.69
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.10

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Danica Patrick 1.78
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.53
  • Justin Allgaier 1.20
  • Casey Mears 1.12

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Gilliland 1.42
  • David Ragan 0.89
  • Trevor Bayne 0.43
  • Cole Whitt (-0.09)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Reed Sorensen 2.18
  • Michael Annett 2.10
  • Alex Bowman 1.33
  • Michael McDowell 1.33
  • Brett Moffitt 1.17
  • Landon Cassill 1.09
  • JJ Yeley 0.18
  • Blake Koch 0.00
  • Josh Wise (-0.15)
  • Brian Scott (-0.41)
Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Phoenix, Quicken Loans Race For Heroes 500

Drivers in the championship hunt are not down to their last chance to qualify for the finale at Homestead. Fistfights at the end of last week’s race are a reflection of the high stakes that are occurring in the playoffs. This week, we return to Phoenix International Raceway and the track should favor the top drivers. In Fantasy Racing, we are at the point in the season where we need to be very close to the top of the standings to have a chance to win our league. For tracks that favor the top drivers, I recommend selecting your three favorite drivers and choosing budget drivers with the final two roster spots.

The first two choices for my roster are contenders for the championship with a successful history at Phoenix. Jeff Gordon has 6 Top Ten finishes in his last 19 Phoenix races. With an average running position of 10.4 since 2003, Gordon is the third-best in the series in lap-to-lap performance. Although there are a couple of drivers with better track data, Gordon has been a top driver all season. Combining his 2014 numbers with decent track data makes Jeff Gordon a good choice for your starting lineup.

The second-best driver in the series in most statistical categories, Kevin Harvick, is another great choice for your roster. Over the past five races at Phoenix, Harvick has the best average finish position and the most laps led in the series. He has 7 Top Five finishes in his last 19 races. Harvick has a high probability for success and should find his way onto your roster.

Jimmie Johnson has the best historical numbers at Phoenix with 13 Top Five finishes in his last 19 races. Although he won last week, his inconsistency in 2014 scares me away. Instead, I am recommending a driver who is still in the playoffs without the dominant track data at Phoenix. Brad Keselowski is ninth in the series in lap-to-lap performance since 2005. I am more intrigued by his recent success where his average finish position is second in the series over the last five races. With championship implications, I expect this team to finish near the top. To summarize, if the driver got into an altercation last week, I am recommending them for your roster this week.

With the lineup front-loaded, we are left with little cap room for the final two spots. Ty Dillon is only a $5.00 salary cap hit. He looked okay at Atlanta earlier this season and has more upside than the other drivers with a low salary cap numbers. David Ragan has a 31st place average finish position over his last five Phoenix races. His lap-to-lap data is acceptable enough to warrant starting.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com uses a scoring system that combines laps led, fast laps, finish position and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us form starting the best five drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each drives and divides that number by the alary cap figure. Then end result is a number that indicates how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. Jimmie Johnson has the track data to consider starting him this week, but his Martinsville debacle has scared me from adding him to my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use his Phoenix numbers over his last five races to illustrate the formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT PHOENIX

  • Total laps led last five Phoenix races: 57 laps equals 5.70 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Average finish position: 9th place equals 35 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative equals (-2.00) Fantasy Live Points
  • Total Fantasy Live points per race: 38.70

See this week’s fantasy live points per dollar numbers below with highlighted picks in bold. Good luck with your picks for Phoenix.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 3.17
  • Kyle Busch 2.30
  • Carl Edwards 2.21
  • Brad Keselowski 1.91
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.79
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.43
  • Matt Kenseth 1.31
  • Joey Logano 1.31
  • Jeff Gordon 1.30
  • Ryan Newman 1.11
  • Clint Bowyer 0.73

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Denny Hamlin 1.79
  • Greg Biffle 1.70
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.70
  • Aric Almirola 1.37
  • Kasey Kahne 1.09
  • Tony Stewart 0.98
  • Paul Menard 0.93
  • Austin Dillon 0.93
  • Kurt Busch 0.89
  • Marcus Ambrose 0.85
  • Jamie McMurray 0.81
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.76
  • Kyle Larson 0.52
  • Brian Vickers 0.45

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 1.61
  • Casey Mears 1.42
  • Justin Allgaier 1.18
  • Danica Patrick 1.08

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Ragan 1.21
  • David Gilliland 1.20
  • Cole Whitt 0.71

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • JJ Yeley 3.52
  • Michael Annett 1.84
  • Landon Cassill 1.09
  • Reed Sorensen 0.88
  • Alex Bowman (-0.36)
  • Ty Dillon