Author: Bill Hnat

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 TEXAS, DUCK COMMANDER 500

After taking a week off for Easter, we return to racing in Texas. With a few top drivers struggling in Martinsville, some of us had an extra week to brood about the lackluster effort of our fantasy roster. The extra week off allowed me to research data points specific to Fantasy Live for each driver in relation to the first six races in 2015. This data helped me to point to drivers I have not yet considered this season. The conclusion is that you should start drivers with a salary cap figure above $25 and below $10. There were few drivers who provided adequate value in the middle, but generally the best value is at the top and bottom. As a result, my suggested strategy is to front-load your lineup and fill the remaining spots with value choices.

For one reason or another, Joey Logano has avoided my lineups so far this season. For the top drivers in 2015, Logano has the second-most Fantasy Live points per dollar after six races. Also, Logano has the best average finish position in Texas over the last five races. The only track where Logano has enjoyed better lap-to-lap performance over the last five races is at Michigan. When a top driver in the current season is on a top track, he should find your lineup. Joey Logano should provide value for your team this week.

The next pick for my roster is due to his 2015 success as opposed to success in Texas. Kevin Harvick is average 134 laps led per race so far in 2015. Success in laps led and average finish position has translated to a series-best 4.62 fantasy points per dollar this season. While Texas is not his best track in the series, he has averaged a respectable average finish position of 14.8. Also, he has 11 Top Ten finishes since 2005. Harvick gets a slight nod over Keselowski and Johnson due to his historical start in 2015. He will cool off, but I will keep him on my roster until he falls back to earth.

The most surprising success of 2015 is my third pick for my roster. Martin Truex Jr. is one of the few middle-priced driving providing value with 2.43 fantasy points per dollar in 2015. With worse teams, Truex has averaged a 13.2 finish position at Texas. Intermediate tracks are the most friendly to Truex, and he is a top five driver this season. With 15 Top 20 finishes in his last 19 races, Truex has a good change to outperform his value for a seventh week.

Truex’s addition to my roster provides me with a little more flexibility than I am used to for the final two roster spots. The battle for the fourth spot is a toss-up between Casey Mears and David Ragan. Mears has provided slightly higher points per fantasy dollar in 2015, but I feel that Ragan provides more upside. Ragan finally earned a top ten finish in Martinsville. While he has only averaged a 32nd place finish at Texas over the last five races, even an average finish will provide value for his salary cap figure.

I was surprised that the fifth roster pick provided the most value for regular drivers with a salary cap figure below $10. Cole Whitt has quietly been rewarding fantasy owners with 2.72 fantasy points per dollar after six races in 2015. He has a 28.5 average finish position in two Texas races. I like his chances to provide my team with value this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Texas races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how many points to expect per fantasy dollar for each fantasy driver. I am ticked off at Jimmie Johnson after Martinsville. Emotion should be left out of fantasy sports, but he will be off my lineup. His Texas numbers over the last five races are dominating, and I will use these numbers to illustrate our formula. Good luck bouncing back in Texas!

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT TEXAS

  • Average finish position last five Texas races: 6.8 equals 37.2 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential last five Texas races: Negative 0.8 equals negative 0.8 points per race
  • Laps led last five Texas races: 614 equals 61.4 points per race
  • Fast laps last five Texas races: 283 equals 28.3 points per race
  • Average points per race: 126.1

Below is the Fantasy Points per dollar for each driver over the past five Texas races. For drivers with no track history, we will use their numbers for 2015. This week’s suggested are in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 4.63
  • Brad Keselowski 2.64
  • Joey Logano 2.09
  • Matt Kenseth 1.86
  • Kyle Larson 1.81
  • Denny Hamlin 1.43
  • Jamie McMurray 1.24
  • Kevin Harvick 1.20
  • Jeff Gordon 1.07
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.00

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Greg Biffle 2.06
  • Clint Bowyer 1.90
  • Ryan Newman 1.82
  • Kasey Kahne 1.20
  • Paul Menard 1.20
  • Carl Edwards 1.18
  • Kurt Busch 0.72

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.43
  • Tony Stewart 2.30
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.97
  • Aric Almirola 1.30
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.30
  • Trevor Bayne 1.11
  • Austin Dillon 1.03

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Justin Allgaier 2.54
  • Danica Patrick 1.62
  • David Gilliland 1.59
  • Casey Mears 1.44
  • David Ragan 1.08
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.85
  • Ryan Blaney 0.53 *

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Brian Scott 3.53 *
  • Michael Annett 3.28
  • Cole Whitt 3.08
  • DiBenedetto 2.40 *
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.10 *
  • JJ Yeley 2.00
  • Landon Cassill 1.83
  • Josh Wise 1.14
  • Brett Moffitt 0.61
  • Michael McDowell 0.56
  • Alex Bowman 0.34

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 MARTINSVILLE, STP 500

After three races on the west coast, NASCAR moves back east to the short track of Martinsville Speedway. There are no sure things in racing, but we have a better chance of being right at Martinsville than most weeks. Due to 500 laps at this race, laps led and fast laps are at a premium. I would suggest front-loading your lineup this week in an effort to capture these numbers.

Fantasy analysts and players love Martinsville because generally the drivers perform as expected. The predictable nature of the track usually make us all feel smarter for one week.

CREAM OF THE CROP

Two drivers who will find their way to the top two roster spots are Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Over the past five races at Martinsville, Johnson has averaged 195 laps led per race. Over the same time span, he has an average finish position of 8.2. His historical data is also impressive. In his last 20 races at the track, 15 have resulted in a top-5 finish. Since 2005, Jimmie Johnson has spent 89% of his laps in the top-15 and had a series-best 2,576 laps led. Johnson is a safe bet to be an asset to your fantasy lineup this week.

Jeff Gordon has numbers that are equally impressive. He has a 5th place average over his past five Martinsville races. Since 2005, Gordon has 16 top-5 finishes in 20 races. He also has a 5th place average finish and 88% of his laps in the top-15 during the same time span. With 1,869 laps led, Gordon is second to Johnson in this category. Gordon is a dependable driver to choose this week for your lineup.

REMAINING ROSTER SPOTS

The choice for the third driver for your lineup is not as clear of a choice. One can choose a driver with recent success in the series like Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, or Brad Keselowski. The other strategy would be to choose a driver with historical track data like Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, or Clint Bowyer. Since Martinsville is generally a track with predictable outcomes, I am leaning towards choosing a driver with a successful track history.

Denny Hamlin has excellent long-term numbers at the track. His 16th place average finish position over the last five races is enough to scare me away from adding him to my roster. Kenseth has an 8th place average finish over his last five Martinsville races, but I am going to lean towards Clint Bowyer this week because of his lower salary cap figure.

While his 2015 effort has been mediocre, Clint Bowyer has enough recent success at the paperclip track to be worth the risk. If he makes his way into your lineup, keep an eye on the qualifying sessions and practice times to make sure he is fast. Bowyer has an average finish position of 5.2 over the past five races and the third-best lap-to-lap performance in the series. Since 2005, Bowyer has the fifth-best average finish position at the track (behind Gordon, Johnson, Hamlin, and Dale Jr.) With 12 top-10 finishes in his last 18 races, Bowyer should be an option in your lineup that will give your lineup additional flexibility for the final two spots.

While consistency is beneficial for the top of your lineup, consistency can be an enemy when attempting to select budget options at the bottom of your roster. Bowyer’s cap value is low enough to provide the salary cap room to add Justin Allgaier onto my roster. He has a 20th place average in two races last year. In a race where budget options are at a premium, I expect Allgaier to be a valuable addition to my roster if he matches his track average. He is slightly better than last year and specializes on short tracks.

The fifth choice for my roster was originally for David Ragan’s team, but I went a different direction with the pick. With Chase Elliot starting his NASCAR career at a $9.00 salary cap value, I will take the risk on the rookie. The expectations are low because he will be driving the #25 car. A $9.00 cap is a low risk, and there is a high reward. If he looks suspect in qualifying, then I will switch my pick back to David Ragan.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on www.nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply choosing the top driver, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver for the last five Martinsville races. Then, we divide that number by the salary cap figure on Fantasy Live. The end result is a number that will indicate which drivers provide the most value for each fantasy dollar. Since Denny Hamlin was a near miss on my roster, we will use his numbers to further illustrate the points per dollar formula.

DENNY HAMLIN AT MARTINSVILLE

  • Average finish position last five Martinsville races: 16.8 equals 27.2 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 13.5 equals (-13.5) points per race
  • Laps Led last five Martinsville races: 94 equals 9.4 points per race
  • Fast Laps last five Martinsville races: 117 equals 11.7 points per race
  • Total points per race: 40.08
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap figure: $25.50
  • Points per Fantasy Live dollar: 40.08 / $25.50 equals 1.57 points per dollar

Below you will find the points per Fantasy Live dollar for each drivers. This week’s recommended picks are in bold. We will use the 2015 numbers for drivers who do not have a track history. Good luck in fantasy racing this week!

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 5.79
  • Jeff Gordon 3.73
  • Matt Kenseth 3.04
  • Denny Hamlin 1.57
  • Kasey Kahne 1.46
  • Joey Logano 1.43
  • Jamie McMurray 1.39
  • Kevin Harvick 1.16
  • Kyle Larson 0.09

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Clint Bowyer 3.78
  • Greg Biffle 2.25
  • Paul Menard 1.38
  • Carl Edwards 1.33
  • Kurt Busch 1.12
  • Ryan Newman 0.81

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Sam Hornish Jr. 2.97
  • Austin Dillon 2.42
  • Aric Almirola 2.01
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.96
  • Tony Stewart 1.39
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.56

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Justin Allgaier 2.96
  • David Gilliland 2.59
  • Danica Patrick 2.03
  • Casey Mears 1.78
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.87
  • David Ragan 0.86

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 3.67
  • JJ Yeley 3.52
  • Brett Moffitt 3.25 *
  • Landon Cassill 3.23
  • Cole Whitt 2.57
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.10 *
  • Mike Bliss 1.90 *
  • Alex Kennedy 1.80 *
  • Josh Wise 1.67
  • Jeb Burton 1.35 *
  • Mike DiBenedetto 0.95 *
  • Alex Bowman 0.70
  • Chase Elliot n/a

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 AUTO CLUB, AUTO CLUB 400

For your sake, I hope that Kevin Harvick found his way onto your fantasy lineups last week. After watching the #4 team dominate the 312 lap effort in Phoenix, NASCAR moves to the third track in the west coast swing. Although there are many drivers with favorable track data, Auto Club is a challenging track to choose as there are not too many standout drivers.

For those of you who have already dropped in the standings, there is an opportunity to gain points with riskier picks. Some of us have seen a positive start to the season and can settle on safer picks. My advice to you is to continue to front-load your lineup with the top drivers and fill your bottom two spots with budget picks.

The driver with the best numbers in California, Kyle Busch, is out indefinitely with a broken leg. As a result, I am going to lean towards drivers who have long-term success at the track. Kyle Larson and Brian Vickers have a successful history at the track, but I am going to choose other options because both drivers have limited race data. Either driver can help a lineup near the bottom of the standings. Although not my suggestion, there is value for several drivers in the $15.00 to $19.75 range, and five average drivers may prove to be an effective strategy.

The active driver with the best lap-to-lap performance at the track over the last five years is Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has ten top-5 finishes in the race in California. During the same time span, Johnson has spent 93% of his laps in the top-15 and has an average running position of 5.8. As a west coast driver, I like his chances in a track close to home. Since he has seen early success in 2015, the #48 team has a high probability for success this week.

My choice for the second roster spot is one of the safest drivers to pick in the series. For some reason, it seems to me that Matt Kenseth is consistently running in 8th place at all times this season. His numbers reflect this at Auto Club, where he has an average finish position of 8.8 since 2005. In the same time span, Kenseth has the third-most laps led. He has also seen recent success as evidenced by a 12.2 average finish position over his last five races in California. He has earned 12 top-10 finishes in his last 16 races. If you are at the top of your league in points, Kenseth is a dependable roster option.

As we continue the theme of safe drivers, Kevin Harvick has been on fire since late last year. While this race is not one of his best, his numbers are favorable enough to justify his roster spot. With only 10 laps led and a 12th place average finish, Harvick has finished near the top. Also, he has eight top-10 finishes in 16 races. Based on his string of 1st and 2nd place finishes, Harvick has to be considered as a lock in your lineup as long as he stays hot.

With a front-loaded lineup, there is not much wiggle room for the last two roster spots. Cole Whitt finished in 18th place last year. While, I am not anticipating a repeat finish, there is enough potential reward for his bargain price. For the same reason, the 5th roster spot will go to Michael Annett. Annett finished in 19th place last year. Like Whitt, the sample size is small, but worth the risk at a low dollar value.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five races at a given track. Then, we divide this number by the salary cap number in Fantasy Live. The end result is a number that shows which drivers should provide value for your salary cap budget each week. Carl Edwards has decent numbers at Auto Club, and we will use his numbers at the track to illustrate the formula.

CARL EDWARDS AT AUTO CLUB

  • Average finish position last five Auto Club races: 11.8 equals 32.2 points per race
  • Start-to-finish position last five Auto Club races: Plus 4.8 equals 4.8 points per race
  • Total laps led last five Auto Club races: 0 laps equals 0 points per race
  • Fast laps led last five Auto Club races: 11 laps equals 1.1 points per race
  • Total points per race: 38.1 points
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $22.00
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 38.1/ 22 = 1.73

The points per race for each driver this week is listed below. Suggested drivers are highlighted in bold. Good luck in the fifth week of the Fantasy NASCAR season.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 2.10
  • Kyle Larson 2.00
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.59
  • Jeff Gordon 1.57
  • Kevin Harvick 1.39
  • Matt Kenseth 1.30
  • Kasey Kahne 1.15
  • Jamie McMurray 0.86
  • Denny Hamlin 0.65
  • Joey Logano 0.61
  • Brad Keselowski 0.54

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kurt Busch 2.00
  • Paul Menard 1.81
  • Ryan Newman 1.75
  • Carl Edwards 1.73
  • Clint Bowyer 1.52

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Tony Stewart 2.85
  • Brian Vickers 2.61
  • Austin Dillon 2.37
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 2.21
  • AJ Allmendinger 2.18
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.32
  • Aric Almirola 0.69

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Danica Patrick 3.00
  • Casey Mears 1.99
  • David Gilliland 1.93
  • David Ragan 1.71
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.43
  • Trevor Bayne 0.97

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Alex Bowman 5.33
  • Cole Whitt 4.80
  • Michael Annett 3.74
  • Brett Moffitt 3.50*
  • Mike Bliss 2.29*
  • Landon Cassill 2.18
  • Matt DiBenedetto 1.71*
  • Josh Wise 1.52*
  • JJ Yeley 1.49
  • Brian Scott 1.42
  • JJ Yeley 1.35*
  • Reed Sorenson (-0.88)*
  • Brandan Gaughan (-0.95)
  • Mike Wallace (-2.08)*

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 PHOENIX, CAMPING WORLD 500

kevin harvick victory lane phoenix 2014

The first three weeks of the NASCAR season have been devastating to some fantasy rosters. The unpredictable nature of racing will make us tear our hair out, but is the beauty of playing fantasy NASCAR racing. For those of you with Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards on your roster last week, the race at Phoenix offers an opportunity to gain back some of your points. Phoenix has some drivers who stand out statistically. My advice to you is to front-load your roster and fill the final spots with budget drivers.

There is an obvious choice who should make his way onto your fantasy NASCAR rosters. Over the past five races at Phoenix, Kevin Harvick has an average finish position of 3.4. With 573 laps led in the same time span, Harvick has more than double the second-best driver in this statistical category. Since 2005, Harvick has spent 78% of his laps in the top-15 and has eight top-5 finishes in his last 20 Phoenix races. The combination of early success in 2015 with the track data makes the #4 team a must-own this week.

Although he has stayed quiet so far by his standards, Brad Keselowski is a great candidate for your roster this week. His 5.6 average finish position over the past five Phoenix races is second to Kevin Harvick. His lap-to-lap performance is also second to the #4 team over the same time span. With only five top-10 finishes in his last 11 races at the track, Keselowski does not have long-term track success, but I think he is due for a top-5 finish.

Originally, I had Jimmie Johnson as the third member on my roster. His challenges at Las Vegas scared me enough to switch to his teammate. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been competitive each week this season and has an eighth place average over the last five Phoenix races. His nine top-10 finishes in twenty races is not overly impressive, but he has displayed consistency at the track. I expect Dale Earnhardt Jr. to remain competitive this week, and is worth a roster spot.

With a front-loaded lineup, there is little salary cap room for the final roster spots. The #18 car is historically one of the best cars in the series. Because of this, one of the budget drivers for your lineup should be David Ragan. While he only has a 31st place average, even average numbers should provide value for your lineup. The final pick performs better than his average at Phoenix. JJ Yeley has an average finish position of 29th place and should provide great value for your lineup. If he comes close to the 3.41 points per fantasy dollar, you will be glad to use him this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply picking the top five drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. First, our points per dollar formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five races at a given track. Then, we divide that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number that can be used to predict how many points to expect from each driver. Since I chickened out of putting Jimmie Johnson in my lineup this week, I will use his numbers to further illustrate the formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT PHOENIX

  • Average finish position last five years: 16.4 equals 27.6 fantasy points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative seven equals -7 fantasy points per race
  • Laps Led: Two laps equals 0.2 fantasy points per race
  • Fast Laps: 103 laps equals 10.3 fantasy points per race
  • Average number of points per race last five years: 31.1
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.25
  • Points per Fantasy Live dollar: 31.1 / 27.25 equals 1.14 points per dollar

Below you will see the Points per Fantasy Live dollar for each drivers. This week’s recommendations are highlighted in bold. Good luck in your lineups in Phoenix.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 4.78
  • Brad Keselowski 2.26
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.06
  • Joey Logano 1.56
  • Jeff Gordon 1.54
  • Denny Hamlin 1.44
  • Matt Kenseth 1.36
  • Jamie McMurray 1.19
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.14
  • Kyle Larson 0.75

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Carl Edwards 2.84
  • Greg Biffle 1.86
  • Kasey Kahne 1.76
  • Ryan Newman 1.56
  • Tony Stewart 1.47
  • Paul Menard 1.03
  • Clint Bowyer 0.65
  • Brian Vickers 0.63

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 1.84
  • Aric Almirola 1.37
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.62
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.48
  • Austin Dillon 0.37

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.67
  • Casey Mears 2.00
  • David Gilliland 1.65
  • Danica Patrick 1.60
  • David Ragan 1.08
  • Regan Smith 0.55

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • JJ Yeley 3.27
  • Michael Annett 2.47
  • Landon Cassill 2.12
  • Reed Sorenson 1.78
  • Justin Allgaier 1.05
  • Alex Bowman 0.93
  • Cole Whitt 0.55
  • Josh Wise 0.53
  • Jeb Burton * 1.24
  • Brett Moffitt* 3.86
  • Brendan Gaughan * 2.86

* No Phoenix statistics available. This number represents the points per dollar for all 2015 races.

Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 LAS VEGAS, KOBALT 400

NASCAR Fantasy Live commercial

Last week’s race took a toll on many of our Fantasy NASCAR rosters. We hope for more consistent finishes from the top drivers during the first leg of the west coast swing in Las Vegas. This week’s recommended strategy is to pick your three top drivers and fill the final two spots with value picks.

NOT PLAYING FAVORITES

There is not a team that is a clear-cut favorite statistically this week.

Because of this, my first pick this week is one of the consistent drivers in the series coming off his first win of the season. Over the last five races at Las Vegas, Jimmie Johnson has a sixth-place average finish and the best lap-to-lap performance in the series. Half of his starts since 2005 have resulted in a top-5 finish at the track. Johnson has an excellent chance of a top-5 finish and is a low-risk option on your roster.

Carl Edwards, with a 5.6 average finish position over the past five races, has the best average finish numbers in the series. His salary cap number took a dive after Daytona and can be on your roster at a better price. Like Johnson, Edwards has finished in the top-5 in half of his races since 2005. Historically, Edwards spends 70% of his laps in the top-15, which is third-best in the series behind Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon.

Maybe as a NASCAR Fantasy Live writer, I can be too technical when I am annoyed that the Fantasy Live commercial airing during races boasts a lineup that is significantly over the Fantasy Live salary cap. Random misgivings aside, NASCAR moves west for the next three weeks after a cold weekend in Georgia.

Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon have led the most laps over the last five races, and have some of the best points-per-dollar rates of any drivers. Both drivers will stay off my roster this week. For Gordon, his car has been competitive. Luck has not been on his side so far in 2015. This may not be fair, but luck plays an important role in Fantasy NASCAR. Tony Stewart is off to a slow start this season, which is not unusual for him. I need to see more from his team before I consider rostering him.

The third roster spot is a toss-up between Logano and Harvick. Their numbers are very close with a slight edge going to Logano. In the last five years, Logano has an average finish position of 12.2. His team has started the season hot and this pick has more to do with the start of the season. Since 2005, Logano has spent 62% of his laps in the top-15. My biggest concern with Logano is that he only has one top-5 finish at Las Vegas. Given his early success, he is worth the risk. Qualifying position may determine if I go with Harvick or Logano when I officially set my roster late in the week.

With the top drivers absorbing a high percentage of the salary cap, the remaining two spots will be filled by budget drivers. David Ragan has averaged a 25th place finish over the last five years. With Kyle Busch’s equipment, he has a good chance for a top-20 finish. Trevor Bayne has an 18th place average in his last four races at Las Vegas. He also has three top-20 finishes in four attempts. Though I am not expecting points from fast laps and laps led from either driver, a middle-of-the-pack finish will make both drivers valuable.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average points earned per race for each driver. Then, we divide the average points by the Fantasy Live salary cap number. The end result is a number that shows how many points to expect for each fantasy dollar. Since I narrowly kept Kevin Harvick off my roster, I will use his numbers to illustrate the points-per-dollar formula.

KEVIN HARVICK AT LAS VEGAS

Average finish position last five Las Vegas races: 16th place equals 28 fantasy points per race. Start-to-finish differential: Plus 1 equals 1 fantasy point per race. Laps Led: 29 equals 2.9 points per race.

  • Fast Laps: 72 equals 7.2 points per race
  • Total points per race last five Las Vegas races: 39.1
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $28.00
  • Points per Dollar: 39.1 / 28 equals 1.41 Fantasy Points Per Dollar

Below you will find the fantasy points-per-dollar for each driver. Suggested picks are in bold. Brian Scott and Matt DiBenedetto have no 2015 or track data and are not included on this list. Good luck having a successful third week of the Fantasy NASCAR season. Feel free to share your roster decisions in the comment section at the end of the article.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 2.62
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.17
  • Kasey Kahne 2.17
  • Matt Kenseth 2.16
  • Jeff Gordon 1.88
  • Kevin Harvick 1.41
  • Denny Hamlin 1.33
  • Joey Logano 1.27
  • Brad Keselowski 1.21
  • Kyle Larson 1.03
  • Jamie McMurray 0.89

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Tony Stewart 3.84
  • Carl Edwards 2.61
  • Paul Menard 2.33
  • Brian Vickers 1.41
  • Greg Biffle 1.31
  • Ryan Newman 1.15
  • Clint Bowyer 1.00

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.03
  • Austin Dillon 1.28
  • AJ Allmendinger 0.88
  • Aric Almirola 0.79
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.15

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Trevor Bayne 3.23
  • David Ragan 2.19
  • Justin Allgaier 1.90
  • Danica Patrick 1.60
  • Casey Mears 1.56
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.66
  • Ryan Blaney (-1.58) *

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 3.00
  • Reed Sorenson 2.29
  • Jeb Burton 2.00 *
  • Regan Smith 1.94
  • Travis Kvapil 1.60
  • David Gilliland 1.57
  • Alex Bowman 0.80
  • Josh Wise 0.23
  • Brendan Gaughan 0.00
  • Cole Whitt 0.00
  • Landon Cassill (-0.12)
  • Michael McDowell (-0.13)
  • JJ Yeley (-0.18)

* Jeb Burton and Ryan Blaney are using their 2015 totals from all races since they have no track history.