Author: Bill Hnat

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 POCONO, WINDOWS 10 400

As we begin the month of August, the summer months are beginning to end and kids are getting ready to go back to school. In the NASCAR series, this means that drivers are running out of opportunities to qualify for the Chase.

We are back at Pocono Raceway this week, and all of the top drivers at the track are likely to make the Chase. There will probably not be any surprises. Since the Pocono race in June was not too long ago, I like to see the results from the June race as the best indicator for results this week. You will not get a ton of points out of laps led or fast laps this week, but I would still recommend front-loading your lineup with your three top choices and rounding out your lineup with budget options.

For those of you who read my article on a weekly basis, you already have a good idea who the first choice for my lineup will be. Kevin Harvick led 39 laps en route to a second place finish earlier this summer at Pocono. He has three top-10 finishes in his last five races at the track and an average finish position of 8.8. His 86 fast laps over the same time span is second among racers. Harvick’s 2015 numbers continue to be strong. He has 12 top-5 finishes and 16 top-10 finishes through 18 races. He has the most laps led and the most fast laps of any driver this season. With 91% of his laps within the top-15, he shows a consistency on a lap-to-lap basis. Harvick will continue to stay in my lineup as long as he continues to run near the top.

While leading 97 laps, Martin Truex Jr. won the June race at Pocono. Since the race dates are, the previous race results have a good chance to be duplicated. The only reason to avoid Truex is that his historical track numbers only show an average finish position of 15.1 and only seven top-10 finishes since 2005. Despite his track numbers, Truex has 14 top-10 finishes and an average finish position of 11.7 in 2015. His 486 Laps Led is third in the Series, and he has run 83% of his laps in the top-15. The #78 Furniture Row team has cooled down a bit as the summer months have progressed, but this appears to be more due to bad luck than a slow car. Expect a strong effort from Martin Truex Jr. this week.

I cannot have a recommended driver list from Pocono without including Dale Earnhardt Jr. Junior finished 11th in the last Pocono race, but won both races in 2014. His numbers at the track over the last five races is impressive. Dale Jr. has four top-5 finishes, an average finish position of 4.2, and 91% of his laps in the top-15. In 2015, Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s average finish position is 10.6, good for fifth in the series. He is also top-10 in laps led and fast laps.

With limited salary cap resources available, the bottom two drivers will not be as successful. Justin Allgaier finished in 20th place earlier this season and has a 21st place average finish position at the track. I have been expecting the #51 car to exceed his budget salary cap number for a few weeks. His team is always risky, but he has upside for his low salary cap number. In 2015, Allgaier has two top-20 finishes and an average finish position of 27.1. Michael Annett disappointed me earlier this season with a 34th place finish at Pocono. Over three races, he has a 25th place average finish position. Considering his low salary cap number, Michael Annett is a great budget option for your team. There are other budget options who provide incredible value this week. I am half-tempted to roster Brendan Gaughan at $4.50 to provide more versatility to my other roster spots for the rest of the season.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the five best drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned over the last five Pocono races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine which drivers provide the most salary cap value. Jimmie Johnson finished 3rd earlier in 2015, but narrowly missed my lineup recommendations. To make it up to him, we will use his numbers from the last five Pocono races to further illustrate the formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT POCONO

  • Average finish position last five Pocono races: 12.4 equals 30.6 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 2.8 equals negative 2.8 points per race
  • Laps Led: 176 laps led equals 17.6 points per race
  • Fast Laps: 52 fast laps equals 5.2 points per race
  • Fantasy Live points per race: 50.6
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $27.50
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 50.6 divided by 27.50 equals 1.84 points per dollar

Below you will see the Fantasy Live points per dollar for all the drivers in the series. Highlighted picks are in bold. Because we already ran at Pocono two months ago, all drivers in the race have a track history this week.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.05
  • Jeff Gordon 1.91
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.84
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.65
  • Kurt Busch 1.61
  • Brad Keselowski 1.60
  • Kevin Harvick 1.56
  • Jamie McMurray 1.44
  • Joey Logano 1.13
  • Denny Hamlin 0.91
  • Kyle Busch 0.74
  • Matt Kenseth 0.63

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kyle Larson 1.71
  • Ryan Newman 1.57
  • Kasey Kahne 1.54
  • Clint Bowyer 1.36
  • Carl Edwards 0.46
  • Aric Almirola 0.30
  • Paul Menard 0.09

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Greg Biffle 2.30
  • Tony Stewart 2.09
  • Austin Dillon 1.32
  • AJ Allmendinger (-0.01)

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Ragan 2.47
  • David Gilliland 2.27
  • Casey Mears 2.14
  • Trevor Bayne 2.11
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.82
  • Danica Patrick (-0.14)
  • Sam Hornish Jr. (-1.05)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 4.23
  • Jeb Burton 3.58
  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.08
  • Justin Allgaier 2.91
  • Brett Moffitt 2.53
  • Alex Bowman 2.40
  • Josh Wise 2.27
  • Alex Kennedy 2.16
  • JJ Yeley 2.10
  • Brendan Gaughan 1.33
  • Landon Cassill 1.18
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 INDIANAPOLIS, JEFF KYLE 400 AT THE BRICKYARD

With another victory at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Kyle Busch continues his improbable return from a broken leg to get closer to Chase eligibility. As our summer series continues, we move on to one of the oldest race tracks. Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a race where the top-drivers are typically running in the front of the field. As a result, my recommendation this week is to front-load your lineup with three drivers with a high probability of running out front. The final two roster spots should be the best available budget options.

Although he has not been as dominant as early in this season, Kevin Harvick is still the most consistent driver in the series. The first selection for my lineup has seen recent success in Indianapolis. In his last five races at the track, Harvick has enjoyed two top-10 finishes and an average finish position of 10.6. All of his races have been inside the top-20. During the same time span, Harvick has spent 65% of his laps running in the top-15. Through 17 races in 2015, Harvick has an average finish position of 6.9. With 12 top-5 finishes and the most laps led and fast laps in the Series this season, Harvick is worth keeping in your lineup.

The second recommendation for my starting lineup is as predictable as the first. Jimmie Johnson has led the most laps over the past five races at the Brickyard. He has a couple of top-10 finishes and 81% of his laps in the top-15. With four wins at the track and the most laps led over the last 10 years, Johnson has seen success. He is also one of the top-drivers in the Series. Johnson has 10 top-5 finishes in 2015. He is in the top-5 in the Series in laps led and fast laps in 2015.

Jeff Gordon has been underwhelming in his final season in the Series. He is completely off my radar in my Yahoo leagues. If he ever turns the corner this season, this is the race where he will. Gordon has earned four top-10 finishes in his last five races. His seventh place average finish position in the last five Indianapolis races is 2nd in the Series. Over the long-term, Gordon has eight top-10 finishes in 10 races, and an 8th place average finish position. With only two top-5 finishes in 2015, Gordon’s spot in my lineup may be replaced by Kyle Busch or Dale Earnhardt Jr. However, ignoring his successful history at the track is challenging.

Since our lineup is front-loaded, there will be little budget for the remaining two roster spots. Chase Elliot is expected to race and has a 24th place average in limited action this season. I think he will exceed expectations at the historical track and build on his 2-point per fantasy dollar number. Michael Annett finished 31st in Indy last season and has a 32nd place average finish in 2015. This should be enough to get some value out of this spot.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines laps led, fast led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting to best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the past five Indianapolis races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine which drivers provide value for your budget. In the theme of underachievers in 2015, Tony Stewart could be a dark horse this week with an average finish position of 8.4 in his last five Indianapolis races. He is a little risky for a roster spot. As a consolation prize, we will use his Indianapolis numbers to further illustrate the formula.

TONY STEWART AT INDIANAPOLIS

  • Average finish position last five Indianapolis races: 8.4 AFP equals 35.6 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 7.2 equals 7.2 fantasy live points per race
  • Laps led: 10 equals 1 Fantasy live point per race
  • Fast laps: 13 equals 1.3 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Total points earned last five Indianapolis races: 44.1 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Salary cap figure: $16.25
  • Fantasy Points per dollar: 44.1 divided by 16.25 equals 2.71 points per dollar

Below are the point per Fantasy Live dollar for each driver in Indianapolis. For drivers with no track history, we will use their numbers from all 2015. Suggested picks this week are in bold. Good luck with your Fantasy Live picks this week.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jeff Gordon 2.19
  • Kyle Busch 2.07
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.86
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.49
  • Jamie McMurray 1.44
  • Kevin Harvick 1.40
  • Denny Hamlin 1.34
  • Brad Keselowski 1.26
  • Matt Kenseth 1.25
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.20
  • Joey Logano 1.08
  • Kurt Busch 0.33

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kasey Kahne 2.25
  • Kyle Larson 2.02
  • Ryan Newman 1.73
  • Paul Menard 1.62
  • Clint Bowyer 1.58
  • Aric Almirola 1.30
  • Carl Edwards 1.09

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Tony Stewart 2.71
  • Greg Biffle 2.48
  • Austin Dillon 1.74
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.47

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Chase Elliott 2.00 *
  • Cole Whitt 1.67
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.50
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.48
  • David Ragan 1.42
  • David Gilliland 1.31
  • Trevor Bayne 0.53
  • Casey Mears 0.34
  • Ryan Blaney 0.15 *
  • Danica Patrick (-0.35)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.67 *
  • Michael Annett 2.42
  • Brett Moffitt 2.32 *
  • Justin Allgaier 2.05
  • Landon Cassill 1.81
  • Reed Sorenson 1.22
  • Jeb Burton 1.20 *
  • Michael McDowell 1.02
  • JJ Yeley 1.00
  • Josh Wise 0.60
  • Timmy Hill 0.40
  • Brian Scott 0.13 *
  • Alex Bowman (-0.25)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 NEW HAMPSHIRE, 5-HOUR ENERGY 301

Last week at Kentucky Speedway, our fantasy live standings became divided into those who started Kyle Busch and those who did not start Kyle Busch. The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series kicks off the second-half of the season by moving north for their first installment at Louden. Over the past five years at New Hampshire, the top-drivers in the Series have a tendency to be successful at the track. There is not one team that is extremely dominating, and several teams have found success.

The key to victory in your NASCAR Fantasy Live league is to capture the drivers who will be out front this week. My suggestion is to front-load your roster with three of the top-drivers and fill your remaining roster spots with the best available value.

THE DRIVERS BELOW HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SUCCESS THIS WEEK

The first pick for my roster is the NASCAR leader in 2015 in laps led, average finish position, and lap-to-lap performance. With his success through the first-half of the season, Kevin Harvick will stay on my roster unless he hits an unexpected slump. His New Hampshire numbers are modest, but nothing to scare you away from keeping him in your lineup. Harvick has seen two top-10 finishes in his last five New Hampshire races and an average finish position of 14.2. Over the long-term, Harvick has enjoyed 10 top-10 finishes in his last 20 New Hampshire races and an average finish position of 13.8. I expect him to improve on his averages this week.

Brad Keselowski has seen recent success in New Hampshire. He has the best lap-to-lap performance of any driver and an average finish position of 5.8 in his last five New Hampshire races. His 236 laps led and 185 fast laps over the same time span are the best in the series. With four top-10 finishes in his last five starts and 92% of his laps in the top-15, you can expect positive results from the #2 Car. Over the long-term, Keselowski has seen seven top-10 finishes in 11 New Hampshire races and an 11th place average finish position. While he has not shown the consistency that you would like to see from a top-driver, Keselowski is in the top-10 in the Series in average finish position, laps led, and lap-to-lap performance.

Fan favorite Dale Earnhardt Jr. is my third roster spot recommendation this week. He has five straight top-15 finishes at the track and an average finish position of 10.4 over his last five races. This season, Junior is in the top-5 in average finish position and lap-to-lap performance. His laps led are not as strong, but Dale Earnhardt Jr. has a high probability for success in New Hampshire. I may swap him out for Kenseth or Hamlin after qualifying.

The drawback of front-loading your lineup is that the pickings are slim for the rest of your roster. Justin Allgaier had a top-20 finish last year in New Hampshire. Although he is a risky pick on a week-to-week basis, his price tag is low enough to be worth the risk. Michael Annett averages around a 30th place finish in two starts last year. This translates to 3.88 Fantasy Live points per dollar and presents the best value for the budget drivers. He should do enough to be worth a roster spot.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to keep us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five New Hampshire races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number that shows how much value to expect from each driver at new Hampshire. For his last five New Hampshire races, Matt Kenseth has an average finish position of 9.8 and 90% of his laps in the top-15. While his numbers are impressive, he missed the cut for my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use his New Hampshire numbers to further illustrate the formula.

MATT KENSETH AT NEW HAMPSHIRE

  • Average finish position last five New Hampshire races: 9.8 equals 33.2 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 5.6 equals 5.6 points per race
  • Laps Led: 152 equals 15.2 points per race
  • Fast Laps: 70 equals 7 points per race
  • Total points earned per race: 62
  • Salary cap figure: $25.75
  • Points per dollar: 62 divided by $25.75 = 2.40 Fantasy Points per dollar

Below you will find the points per dollar for all of the drivers in the series. For rookies with no track history, we will use their numbers for all 2015 races to give you an idea of their value. This week’s suggestions are highlighted in bold. Feel free to share your rosters in the comments.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Brad Keselowski 3.17
  • Matt Kenseth 2.41
  • Denny Hamlin 2.40
  • Kyle Bush 2.27
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.78
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.61
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.56
  • Kevin Harvick 1.54
  • Jamie McMurray 1.38
  • Jeff Gordon 1.18
  • Joey Logano 1.08
  • Kurt Busch 0.80

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kyle Larson 2.50
  • Clint Bowyer 1.83
  • Carl Edwards 1.53
  • Aric Almirola 1.50
  • Kasey Kahne 1.24
  • Paul Menard 1.08
  • Ryan Newman 0.95

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 2.74
  • Tony Stewart 2.44
  • AJ Allmendinger 2.09
  • Greg Biffle 1.96

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Gilliland 1.81
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.63
  • Danica Patrick 1.30
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.30
  • David Ragan 1.17
  • Cole Whitt 1.02
  • Casey Mears 0.88

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 3.88
  • JJ Yeley 2.91
  • Alex Bowman 2.78
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.53 *
  • Timmy Hill 2.34
  • Jeb Burton 2.00 *
  • Landon Cassill 1.79
  • Reed Sorenson 1.67
  • Justin Allgaier 1.18
  • Timmy Hill n/a
  • Derek White n/a
  • Joey Gase n/a

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 KENTUCKY, QUAKER STATE 400

As we near the half-way point of the season, NASCAR moves back north to Kentucky Speedway. Let’s hope that this week’s race does not leave us holding our breath after a dangerous finish at 3:00AM in the morning. The track in Sparta is a newer one for the series, and there is no long-term data. Based on previous races at the track, my recommendation would be to front-load your lineup this week for the first three roster spots and fill the remaining roster spots with the best budget drivers available. Nine of the 10 top-drivers in Fantasy Live points per race at Kentucky have a salary cap figure of $24 or higher. I have a feeling one car will lead the majority of laps and our standing will be determined by who chooses the dominant car.

My first roster spot has the highest likelihood of success of any driver due to his success this season. Kevin Harvick has the most laps led of any driver in the series and has 10 top-10 finishes in the first 15 races in 2015. He also enjoys a series-best average finish position and 93% of his laps in the top-15. His track data is not as impressive, but is not bad enough to scare him off your roster. Harvick carries an 11th place average finish position, two top-10 finishes, and 83% of his laps in the top-15 in Kentucky races. At this point, the majority of Fantasy Live teams are starting Harvick week in and week out. There is no reason to make a change.

While the first driver was chosen due to his 2015 success, my second spot in my roster is a driver with track success and 2015 difficulties. Kyle Busch has three top-5 finishes and four top-10 finishes already in Kentucky. His 274 laps led and 139 fast laps are both second-best in the series. Also, Kyle Busch has spent 94% of his laps in the top-15. While he has not enjoyed the best luck since returning to the series from a broken leg, Kyle Busch is a high-risk choice who has a decent chance to become the dominant car in Kentucky.

Brad Keselowski has nine top-10 finishes through the first 15 races in 2015. He is in the top-10 in average finish position, laps led, and lap-to-lap performance data. With two victories at Kentucky, Keselowski is a solid option for your roster. His 346 laps led and 171 fast laps are the most in the series in Sparta. I like Keselowski’s chances for success this week. With a front-loaded lineup, there is little room for the final two budget drivers. Michael Annett finish 18th last year in Kentucky. With his low salary cap mark, he will provide value if he finishes anywhere near last year’s race (6.67 points per dollar!) There is nothing I like about Landon Cassill. He has a pedestrian 29th place average in Kentucky and an average finish position of 31.7 in 2015. He is my recommendation for now, but the fifth spot may change after qualifying.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned over the past five Kentucky race by each driver. Next, we divide this number by the salary cap figure to determine which driver provides the most salary cap driver. Martin Truex Jr. has been one of the top-3 drivers this season and has success at intermediate-sized tracks. With 14 top-10 finishes in the first 15 races this season, he could easily bump Kyle Busch or Keselowski in my lineup. For now, he if off my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use his Kentucky numbers to further illustrate the formulas.

MARTIN TRUEX JR AT KANSAS

  • Average finish position at Kentucky: 13th place equals 31 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus three equals 3 points per race
  • Laps led: 1 lap equals 0.1 points per race
  • Fast laps: 6 laps equals 0.6 points per race
  • Total points earned by race: 34.7 points per race
  • Salary cap figure: $25.00
  • Points per dollar: 34.7 points divided by $25.00 equals 1.40 points per dollar

Below you will find the Fantasy points per dollar for each driver at Kentucky. For rookies with no track history, we will use their 2015 numbers. As always, feel free to post your lineup in the comments. Good luck this week as we hit the half-way point of another great NASCAR season.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kyle Busch 3.68
  • Brad Keselowski 3.53
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.87
  • Matt Kenseth 2.54
  • Jeff Gordon 1.67
  • Kurt Busch 1.52
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.46
  • Joey Logano 1.41
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.40
  • Kevin Harvick 1.26
  • Jamie McMurray 0.80
  • Denny Hamlin 0.78

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kasey Kahne 2.13
  • Carl Edwards 1.64
  • Ryan Newman 1.16
  • Paul Menard 0.91
  • Clint Bowyer 0.85
  • Aric Almirola 0.41
  • Kyle Larson (-1.28)

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 1.58
  • Tony Stewart 1.56
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.40
  • Greg Biffle 1.11

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Ragan 2.54
  • Casey Mears 2.32
  • David Gilliland 2.14
  • Cole Whitt 1.67
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.65
  • Danica Patrick 1.44

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 6.67
  • Alex Kennedy 3.21*
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.96*
  • Justin Allgaier 2.53
  • Brett Moffitt 2.38*
  • Jeb Burton 2.20*
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.00*
  • Landon Cassill 1.91
  • JJ Yeley 1.48
  • Josh Wise 1.18
  • Alex Bowman 0.63
  • Michael McDowll 0.16

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 DAYTONA, COKE ZERO 400

As the NASCAR summer series continues for the 17th race of the season in Daytona, we are already nearing the half-way point of the NASCAR season. Restrictor plate tracks are the most difficult to predict in the season, but provides an opportunity to gain points on your competition.

The nature of the restrictor plates makes passing easy, and also darts drivers from the front to the back of the field. My lineup early in the week will be a number of drivers who are typically successful at Daytona, but who I choose will be strongly influenced by qualifying position. My suggestion would be to find drivers in the back of the field and take advantage of start-to-finish differential. Generally, you will not benefit greatly from laps led or fast laps this week.

Usually track history is one of the most important statistics to determine my lineup on a week-to-week basis. My first lineup choice this week has nothing to do with track success, but Kevin Harvick has found success almost everywhere this year. His numbers are adequate in Daytona, but not overly impressive. He has two top-5 finishes in his last five Daytona races, including a second-place finish earlier this season. Since 2005, Harvick has the sixth-best average finish position for active drivers in the series. He has also seen nine top-10 finishes in his last 21 Daytona races. All these numbers are not enough evidence to start Harvick. Combining decent track numbers with dominant 2015 numbers, Harvick is a good choice for your lineup this week.

This is a good week to save a roster spot for Dale Earnhardt Jr. Junior has found success at restrictor plate tracks. Over his last five races at Daytona, Junior has an average finish position of 5.6. With three top-5 finishes in five races and 73% of his laps running in the top-15, Junior has proven to be a dependable option on a track where finding dependable drivers is a challenge. Since 2005, the #88 team has eight top-5 finishes at Daytona, the third-most laps led of any active driver, and the best average finish position of any driver. The only thing to keep Junior from my lineup this week would be a high qualifying position.

Most weeks I suggest to front-load your lineup with the three best drivers and fill the remaining spots with value picks. Because there is a low likelihood of a driver dominating in fast laps and laps led this week, I am only choosing two top-tier drivers in order to have higher quality drivers at the bottom of my roster. For the early-week suggestions, I am advising mid-tier drivers who have seen decent success at the track. Casey Mears has an average finish position of 11.6 in his last five Daytona races including four top-10 finishes. His lap-to-lap numbers are not as impressive, but he is worth the risk. Austin Dillon has enjoyed two top-10 finishes in four attempts at the track and a 16th place average finish position. Danica Patrick has two top-10 finishes and an average finish position of 18.2. This strategy enables my lineup to have five drivers who have seen success in Daytona. This lineup is subject to change based on where the drivers qualify. There are many drivers under $10 who provide excellent value.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, average finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format to encourage us to strategically arrange our lineup. Our formula calculates the number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Daytona races. Next, we calculate that number by the driver’s salary cap figure to show which drivers are expected to provide value this week. Although he does not get the restrictor plate attention of his teammate, Jimmie Johnson has led the most Daytona laps of any driver over the last five Daytona races. He missed my lineup, but we will use his Daytona statistics to further illustrate the formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT DAYTONA

  • Average finish position last five Daytona races: 10.8 equals 33.2 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: 0.4 equals 0.4 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Laps Led: 165 laps equals 16.5 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Fast laps: 13 equals 1.3 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Total points per race: 51.40
  • Salary cap figure: $27.75
  • Fantasy Live points per salary cap dollar: 51.4 divided by 27.75 = 1.85 Points per dollar

Below you will find the figures for all drivers this week. For rookie drivers with no Daytona history, we will use their 2015 numbers. We had three DNFs with last week’s suggested Sonoma lineup. All drivers were running well, but mechanical issues and Gilliland’s wreck made for a bad week for my team. I am hoping my suggestions see better success this week. Keep a close eye on qualifying this week and try to find the top drivers who qualify at the back of the field. Feel free to include your roster in the comments below and good luck navigating the restrictor plate track this week.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Denny Hamlin 2.21
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.98
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.85
  • Kurt Busch 1.57
  • Brad Keselowski 1.52
  • Joey Logano 1.32
  • Kyle Busch 1.00
  • Jeff Gordon 0.93
  • Kevin Harvick 0.82
  • Matt Kenseth 0.54
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.28

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Clint Bowyer 1.39
  • Aric Almirola 1.35
  • Ryan Newman 1.26
  • Carl Edwards 0.50
  • Paul Menard 0.38
  • Kyle Larson 0.02
  • Kasey Kahne (-0.05)

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 2.09
  • Greg Biffle 1.64
  • Aj Allmendinger 0.70
  • Tony Stewart (-0.33)

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Sam Hornish Jr. 4.17
  • Casey Mears 3.93
  • Bobby Labonte 2.91
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.58
  • David Ragan 2.10
  • Danica Patrick 1.98
  • David Gilliland 1.05
  • Trevor Bayne 1.00
  • Cole Whitt 0.77
  • Ryan Blaney (-1.58)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • JJ Yeley 6.70
  • Alex Bowman 5.87
  • Michael Annett 5.19
  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.23*
  • Josh Wise 2.83
  • Brett Moffitt 2.18*
  • Jeb Burton 2.00*
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.00*
  • Justin Allgaier 1.86
  • Landon Cassill 1.33
  • Brian Scott 1.06

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.