Author: Bill Hnat

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY, FORD ECOBOOST 400

After a rain-soaked Phoenix race, we are now in the Championship Round of the Sprint Cup Series. The four remaining drivers have all seen a degree of success in Homestead and should be a competitive race between the contenders. For the final week of Fantasy NASCAR, my advice is to start three of the Championship drivers in your lineup. Not only will they have the most to gain from winning the race, but having them in your lineup should make the race more entertaining. If you are in a position to take risks, then take off-the-wall suggestions and hope that the chaos that is fantasy racing works in your favor.

Of the remaining drivers, I feel that Kevin Harvick offers the best chance for victory. Harvick barely had the opportunity to be in this stage and needed a controversial finish at Talladega to help advance to the final round. Harvick was in the same position in 2014 and needed to win for the championship. Over the last five races at this track, Harvick has finished in the top-10 in every race with a 6th place average finish position. At similarly configured tracks, Harvick has two wins and five top-5 finishes. His 816 laps led on steep tracks in 2015 is 564 more laps led than the 2nd best driver. With 22 top-5 finishes in 2015, Harvick has found the consistency to be a contender all season and is a great choice for your lineup this week.

Another championship favorite this week comes from a one-car team. Though they appear to be underdogs to the more established teams, Martin Truex Jr. will be racing at one of his best tracks this weekend. Over the last five Homestead races, Truex Jr. has an 8th place average finish position. During the same time span, he has spent 84% of his laps inside the top-15. This figure is 2nd best in the series. My biggest concern with Truex Jr. is that he only has a 14th place average in similar track types. With a championship on the line, I expect the team with 23 top-10 finishes in 2015 to be a useful addition to your fantasy lineup.

The next roster spot was a close pick between Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch. My pick may come down to qualifying. For now, I am going with the retiring driver because he has found more consistency at the track. Kyle Busch has not been as consistent and narrowly misses my lineup. With the 2nd most laps led over the last five Homestead races and three top-10 finishes, Gordon has seen success at Homestead. I had written this team off in all occasions only a couple of months ago, but they have found consistency once the Chase started. Like Truex, Gordon has been underwhelming in similarly configured tracks and only has a 13th place average. Gordon will be a fan favorite to bow out of the NASCAR series with a championship in his last race. He is the less risky pick, but should be helpful to your lineup as well.

With three Championship eligible drivers eating up the majority of my budget, I need to go with budget options for the last two roster spots. Justin Allgaier has a great chance to outperform his salary cap figure this week. Allgaier finished in 15th place last year with 18% of his laps inside the top-15 during the race. His average finish of 25th on steep tracks in 2015 is not overly impressive, but even that should provide some value from his roster spot. Ty Dillon has a 22nd place average finish in limited action this season and has provided adequate fantasy value. He will be the final roster spot unless something stands out in qualifying.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Homestead races. Next, we divide that number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure. The end result is a number that predicts which drivers have a good chance to provide value this week. Since Kyle Busch is the odd man out of the championship drivers this week, we will use his numbers to further illustrate this formula.

KYLE BUSCH AT MIAMI-HOMESTEAD

  • Average finish position last five Homestead races: 21st equals 23 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 5.4 equals negative 5.4 Fantasy Live points
  • Laps led: 207 equals 20.7 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast laps: 100 equals 10 Fantasy Live points
  • Average Fantasy Live points per race: 48.3
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.75
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 48.3 divided by $27.75 equals 1.74 points per dollar

Below you will see the Fantasy Live points per salary cap dollar for each driver this week. We will use the 2015 numbers for rookies with no track history. I hope that your teams found success in the 2015 season. Daytona will be around the corner before we know it!

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Carl Edwards 2.79
  • Jeff Gordon 2.32
  • Kevin Harvick 2.21
  • Matt Kenseth 2.21
  • Denny Hamlin 2.16
  • Kyle Busch 1.74
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.61
  • Brad Keselowski 1.24
  • Joey Logano 0.69
  • Kurt Busch 0.67

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.29
  • Clint Bowyer 2.16
  • Ryan Newman 2.05
  • Kyle Larson 1.94
  • Aric Almirola 1.85
  • Paul Menard 1.24
  • Jamie McMurray 1.11
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.07

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Kasey Kahne 1.86
  • Austin Dillon 1.16
  • Greg Biffle 0.85

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Tony Stewart 3.99
  • Justin Allgaier 2.73
  • Danica Patrick 2.72
  • Casey Mears 1.68
  • Cole Whitt 1.43
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.33
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.67
  • Ryan Blaney 0.28 *
  • Trevor Bayne 0.23

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Reed Sorenson 6.74
  • Ty Dillon 3.20 *
  • Alex Bowman 3.04
  • Michael Annett 2.57
  • David Gilliland 2.34
  • Brett Moffitt 2.22
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.07 *
  • Jeb Buron 2.00 *
  • Ryan Preece 2.00 *
  • Landon Cassill 1.63
  • David Ragan 0.98
  • Josh Wise 0.88
  • Michael McDowell 0.40
  • JJ Yeley 0.27

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 PHOENIX, QUICKEN LOANS RACE FOR HEROES 500

After the tire issues at Texas, you were left feeling very happy or not satisfied with the results last week. Those who went with the pole sitter Brad Keselowski had a shot in the arm in the standings. We now move back west to Phoenix, and seven Chase eligible drivers will be fighting for the final three spots. Phoenix is a track that benefits the top drivers, as the top five active drivers in average finish position over the past five Phoenix races are Chase eligible. My recommendation would be to front-load your lineup with Chase drivers unless you are in a desperate situation in your standings.

Even though the numbers show a high probability of success from the top drivers, you can take under-the-radar options if you need to gain points in the standings. Harvick should dominate the race. If you have been playing fantasy racing a while, you know to expect the unexpected. The season is almost over so there is little risk to swing for the fences if you need to gain ground.

Kevin Harvick has better numbers at Phoenix than any driver at any track. He should find his way onto most Fantasy lineups this week due to his dominating numbers. Harvick has won four of the last five races at Phoenix. Over this same stretch, Harvick has led 782 laps. To put that number into perspective, the 2nd best driver is Brad Keselowski with 159. In the 2015 race, Harvick led 224 laps on this way to victory. If those numbers are not convincing enough, Harvick has led the most laps of any driver in 2015 and has 20 top-5 finishes through 32 races. Harvick has also led the most laps on flat tracks in 2015 with an average finish position of 10.7 on this track type. You will likely not gain too much ground on your competition by inserting Harvick into your lineup, but you will not lose ground either. Harvick is on the bubble to advance, and this should keep his team from taking unnecessary risks.

There are four other drivers that will need to find your roster. By comparison, no other driver’s number will be close to Harvick’s. Joey Logano has the best average finish position of any driver in 2015 and has decent numbers at Phoenix. Over the past five races at the track, Logano has an average finish position of 10.6 and has four top-10 finishes. Earlier this season, Logano led 35 laps on his way to a 7th place finish. Logano has the best numbers on flat tracks this season. In nine races, Logano has eight top-10 finishes on flat tracks and an average finish position. Logano is closing strong as the season comes to a close and is expected to be a valuable fantasy contributor this week. It is all or nothing this week for Logano, and this could make him a surprise win this week.

Even though I can make arguments for a few non-Chase drivers, I want to have Chase-eligible drivers for the top three roster spots. Brad Keselowski, Carl Edwards, and Jeff Gordon all have impressive track data. Unless there is a convincing effort in practice or qualifying to change my mind, the 3rd roster spot will go to Brad Keselowski. The #2 car finished 6th at the track earlier this season and led 52 laps. Over the last five Phoenix races, Keselowski has four top-10 finishes and has spent 97% of his laps inside the top-15. He has been solid, but unspectacular for much of the season and maintains an 11th place average. Narrowly, Keselowski is a choice for my roster this week. I regret missing out of Keselowski last week. Like Logano, he will be going to broke this week.

There is little room for the remaining roster spots and no budget drivers I particularly like this week. Unfortunately, when a track favors top drivers as much as Phoenix, the flip side is that there are rarely good drivers at the bottom to pick from. Landon Cassill finished 22nd earlier this season and maintains a 31st average finish position in 2015. David Gilliland narrowly beats out David Ragan for the other budget spot. Gilliland finished 29th earlier this year and has been finishing in this range all season. I will likely switch these picks to low qualifiers in hope of gaining start-to-finish differential points because I do not like Cassill or Gilliland too much. I would be surprised to have the #38 car and #40 car on my roster when the race starts.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to keep us from starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the past five Phoenix races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how much value to expect from each driver. Jeff Gordon has been solid at Phoenix, but was beat out by Keselowski for the 3rd roster spot. As a consolation prize to the retiring driver, we will use his Phoenix numbers to further illustrate our formula. There is hope for the #24 team as last week’s consolation prize won the race in Texas.

JEFF GORDON AT PHOENIX

  • Average finish position last five Phoenix races: 7.8 equals 36.2 fantasy live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative One equals (-1) fantasy live points
  • Laps led: 53 equals 5.3 points per race
  • Fast laps: 75 equals 7.5 points per race
  • Fantasy Live points per race: 50
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $25.50
  • Fantasy Live points per salary cap dollar: 50 divided by $25.50 equals 1.96

Below you will find the numbers for each driver at Phoenix with my picks in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 5.69
  • Brad Keselowski 2.37
  • Carl Edwards 2.31
  • Jeff Gordon 1.96
  • Joey Logano 1.90
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.75
  • Kurt Busch 1.08
  • Denny Hamlin 1.00
  • Kyle Busch 0.52

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kasey Kahne 2.07
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.54
  • Ryan Newman 1.51
  • Jamie McMurray 1.49
  • Aric Almirola 1.41
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.19
  • Kyle Larson 1.16
  • Paul Menard 1.07
  • Clint Bowyer 0.90

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Greg Biffle 1.79
  • Austin Dillon 0.83
  • Erik Jones 0.16 *
  • Sam Hornish (-0.55)

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.59
  • AJ Allmendinger 2.56
  • Casey Mears 1.82
  • Tony Stewart 1.68
  • Trevor Bayne 1.66
  • Danica Patrick 1.07
  • Cole Whitt 1.04

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Joey Gase 4.00
  • JJ Yeley 3.64
  • Jeb Burton 3.40
  • Timmy Hill 2.80
  • Landon Cassill 2.60
  • Brett Moffitt 2.57
  • David Gilliland 2.10
  • Michael Annett 2.03
  • Justin Allgaier 1.68
  • David Ragan 1.47
  • Alex Bowman 1.25
  • Matt DiBenedetto 1.20

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 TEXAS, AAA TEXAS 500

Matching the headlines for the last three weeks in the Chase will be difficult.

I am stuck somewhere between thinking Kenseth was justified to wreck Logano and upset because Logano was in every one of my fantasy lineups last week. We will see what else can happen this week in Texas, and Homestead will be interesting between the #22 and #20 if Logano fails to advance to the final round.

With only three races remaining in the NASCAR season, there is little opportunity to gain in your standings. Texas, Phoenix, and Homestead are all races that favor the frontrunners. Your best hope, if you are behind in the standings, is to select drivers who are under-the-radar and hope that you get lucky. My suggestion in Texas, like most weeks, is to front-load your lineup with the top-3 drivers and fill out your roster with two budget options. The next few weeks will be tense for Fantasy owners who are close in the standings, and choosing wisely will be critical as the season comes to a close.

For the top-3 spots, I am leaning towards drivers who are still in Chase contention. There are non-Chase drivers who can certainly find success, but I like to pick drivers who are racing for a Championship. Even with the events from last week, keeping Joey Logano out of your lineup is risky. Not only is he on a hot streak, but he also finds success in Texas. Over the last five Texas races, Logano for four top-5 finishes and maintains a 5th place average. He has only led 129 laps in this stretch, so he has seen consistent efforts that are not dominating. Early this year, Logano finished in 4th while staying in the top-15 for all of his laps. For large oval tracks, Logano has a 5th place average finish and has led the most laps in the series. Logano’s 7th place average finish position in 2015 is best in the series.

The combination of track success, season success, and track type success provides Logano with a high probability of success this week. The only risk with Logano this week’s is that the Martinsville drama carries over into Texas, and his performance is somehow affected. I do not anticipate this will be the case and am comfortable with Logano in my lineup.

For the second roster spot, I am going to lean on the driver who has helped my roster this entire season. Kevin Harvick does not have consistent success at Texas, but he did finish 2nd earlier in 2015. Over the last five Texas races, Harvick has two top-5 finishes and a 13th place average finish position. These numbers are not enough to convince you to roster him, but enough to show that Harvick is competitive in Texas. On large oval tracks this season, Harvick has led the most laps of any driver. Even though Logano now has a better average finish position now in 2015, Harvick has still led the most laps of any driver in 2015. Harvick is on the bubble to advance in the chase right now. Harvick is dominant on next week’s race in Phoenix, and I would expect a more conservative approach towards this week.

Jimmie Johnson was strongly considered for my 3rd roster recommendation due to his victory earlier this season. Down the stretch, the #48 team has finished worse than their average on a consistent basis so I am staying away from the team unless I see something in qualifying to change my mind. Of the Chase eligible driver, the one who finds the most consistency in Texas is Kyle Busch. Over the last five Texas races, Kyle Busch finish has three top-5 finishes and has a 5th place average finish. Busch missed the race earlier this season due to a broken leg. His numbers at large oval tracks and 2015 are not enough to warrant a start. Due to these number, Busch carries more risk than the other drivers suggested, but I feel he is the best option of the Chase eligible drivers. This is his best chance for an automatic qualifier and expect Kyle Busch to be aggressive this week.

Selecting three Chase eligible drivers uses the majority of my salary cap. As a result, the final two roster spots will be the best available budget options. David Ragan has not seen consistent success in Texas, with a 29th place average finish position over the last five races. With Kyle Busch’s team, Ragan finished 13th earlier in 2015. He is hovering around a 25th average finish position in 2015, and should provide enough value for his salary cap figure. There is not another budget driver I love, but will tentatively suggest Matt DiBenedetto until at least qualifying. DiBenedetto finished in 34th place earlier in 2015. This finish will only be value if he qualifies in the back of the field. I will keep an eye on qualifying and may start the 43rd driver in an effort to find value in start-to-finish differential.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format to manage the talent on our rosters. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Texas races. Next, we divide the average points earned by the salary cap figure to determine which drivers provide the best value in Texas. Jimmie Johnson narrowly missed my roster because I am keeping non-Chase eligible drivers off my roster. As a consolation prize, I will use Johnson’s impressive Texas numbers to further illustrate the formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT TEXAS

  • Average finish position last five Texas races: 6.8 equals 37.2 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Zero equals zero points per race
  • Laps led: 574 equals 57.4 points per race
  • Fast laps: 254 equals 25.4 points per race
  • Total Fantasy Live points per race: 120
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $24.50
  • Fantasy Live points divided by salary cap figure: 120 divided by $24.50 equals 4.9 points

Below you see the Fantasy Live rankings for each driver over the last five races at Texas. If you are wanting to take risks, you can take a driver with the 5th or 6th best numbers in hope that the unexpected happens. We are talking Fantasy racing, so there is always the possibility of getting lucky.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 4.90
  • Kyle Busch 3.01
  • Brad Keselowski 2.33
  • Joey Logano 2.24
  • Kevin Harvick 1.69
  • Denny Hamlin 1.55
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.23
  • Jeff Gordon 1.16
  • Kurt Busch 0.64

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.11
  • Clint Bowyer 1.86
  • Kasey Kahne 1.84
  • Kyle Larson 1.64
  • Ryan Newman 1.51
  • Jamie McMurray 1.45
  • Aric Almirola 1.29
  • Carl Edwards 1.12
  • Paul Menard 0.81

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Greg Biffle 2.33
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.38
  • Austin Dillon 1.20

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 2.68
  • Tony Stewart 2.35
  • Cole Whitt 1.84
  • Danica Patrick 1.69
  • Justin Allgaier 1.39
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.30
  • Trevor Bayne 1.17
  • Casey Mears 1.16
  • Ryan Blaney (-1.83)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Reed Sorenson 2.65
  • Michael Annett 2.64
  • Joey Gase 2.57
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.32
  • David Gilliland 2.24
  • JJ Yeley 2.20
  • Brett Moffitt 1.93
  • David Ragan 1.93
  • Landon Cassill 1.61
  • Michael McDowell 0.98
  • Alex Bowman 0.83
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 MARTINSVILLE, GOODY’S HEADACHE RELIEF SHOT 500

Now that the stress and excitement of a playoff restrictor plate track race is over, NASCAR has its last short track of the season at Martinsville Speedway. From a Fantasy Live perspective, your goal should be to capture the laps led statistic this week due to the extra laps. My recommendation would be to front-load your lineup with the three drivers who are still Chase eligible. The bottom two spots should be the two best available budget options.

If you are behind in the standings, this is a good opportunity to swing for the fences. If an under-the-radar driver dominates the race, then you can shoot up the standings. If you are near the top of the standings, I would recommend taking the more conservative lineup below.

Since the playoffs have started, there is no driver with more momentum than Joey Logano. Through 31 races in 2015, Logano’s average finish position of 7.9 is the best of any driver. Earlier this season at Martinsville, Logano led 108 laps on his way to a 3rd place finish. With three top-10 finishes over the last five races at the track, the #22 team will likely stay competitive this week. Logano has seen success on flat tracks this season. In nine races for this track type, Logano has enjoyed seven top-5 finishes and the 2nd most laps led of any driver on flat tracks this season. My only concern with Logano is that he may have lost some friends after spinning Kenseth at Kansas, but this is not enough of a reason to keep him off of my roster.

The next roster recommendation has been a consistent choice on my roster this season. Kevin Harvick has 20 top-5 finishes already in 2015. Over the recent weeks, he seems to be running in the top-5, but is not claiming the same laps led and fast lap points that he earned earlier this season. In the March race, Harvick led 154 laps on his way to a 7th place finish. Over the last five Martinsville races, Harvick has three top-10 finishes and a 13th place average finish position. Harvick has led 772 laps in nine flat track races this season, good for the most in the series. I do not know if Harvick will be the driver who takes the checker this week, but I think he will be near the front and not harm my roster. After a controversial Talladega finish, I expect the #4 team to be have a high chance for fantasy relevance this week.

Originally, I had Denny Hamlin as the third option due to his victory earlier this year. Instead, I want a Chase eligible driver for the third spot. About half-way through the season, I decided not to put Jeff Gordon on my roster in every circumstance. Now, he has advanced to the playoffs, and Martinsville is one of his best tracks. Gordon has a 5th place average finish position over his last five races at the tracking, including earning one grandfather clock during this time span. Earlier this year, he finished a modest 9th place. Although he only maintains a 15th place average in 2015 races, Gordon has an excellent chance for success this week.

With a front-loaded lineup, there was limited cap space for the final two spots. David Ragan finished 5th in the March race with Kyle Busch’s equipment. He maintains a 23rd place average finish position over the last five Martinsville races. His average finish position at flat racks is better than other track types. Ragan should outperform his value this week. Tentatively, the 5th roster spot is set for Matt DiBenedetto. Although he only finished in 31st earlier this season, his team usually performs adequately enough not to damage your roster spot. In the 28 races he started in 2015, DiBenedetto has a 31st place average. As always, make sure to watch qualifying to determine which budget options to use. I would recommend chasing after a driver who can get start-to-finish differential. There should be some close racing this week. A driver who qualifies 43rd can benefit from the DNFs that are likely to accommodate the race.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the five best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five Martinsville races. Next, we divide that number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure to determine which drivers provide value. I have a tendency to avoid drivers who are eliminated from the Chase. For this reason, I will not have Jimmie Johnson on my roster. However, he has the most Fantasy Live points of any driver at Martinsville. We will use his numbers to further illustrate our formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT MARTINSVILLE

  • Average finish position last five Martinsville races: 15th equals 29 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 11.2 equals (-11.2) Fantasy Live points
  • Laps led: 765 equals 76.5 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast laps: 239 equals 23.9 Fantasy Live points
  • Total Fantasy Live points earned by race: 118.2
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $24.75
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 118.2 divided by $24.75 equals 4.78 points per dollar

Below you will find the Fantasy Live points per driver for each driver in Martinsville. Make sure to front-load your lineup this week and set your lineups after qualifying.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 4.78
  • Jeff Gordon 3.36
  • Matt Kenseth 3.24
  • Denny Hamlin 2.57
  • Kevin Harvick 2.26
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.03
  • Joey Logano 1.99
  • Kyle Busch 1.71
  • Carl Edwards 1.15
  • Kurt Busch 1.14
  • Brad Keselowski 1.10

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Clint Bowyer 3.10
  • Aric Almirola 1.76
  • Jamie McMurray 1.57
  • Kasey Kahne 1.54
  • Paul Menard 1.28
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.76
  • Ryan Newman 0.40
  • Kyle Larson 0.11

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Greg Biffle 2.31
  • Austin Dillon 1.58
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.16

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Trevor Bayne 3.02
  • Tony Stewart 2.47
  • Danica Patrick 2.50
  • Cole Whitt 2.30
  • Casey Mears 1.94
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.53
  • Justin Allgaier 1.43
  • Ricky Stenhouse 0.49

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Kyle Fowler 6.00
  • JJ Yeley 3.89
  • Jeb Burton 3.60
  • Landon Cassill 3.46
  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.33
  • Michael Annett 3.31
  • Alex Kennedy 3.17
  • Brett Moffitt 3.00
  • David Gilliland 2.97
  • David Ragan 2.01
  • Alex Bowman 1.13
  • Timmy Hill 0.21
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 TALLADEGA, CAMPINGWORLD500.COM

With one more race remaining in the second round of the Chase, NASCAR returns to eastern Alabama for the second time this season. Restrictor plate tracks are a challenge at this time in the season because there is so much on the line. This track type requires vehicles to be close to each other and usually results in a major wreck involving half of the field. Determining who will lead laps is challenging, and it is rare that one driver will stay out front for very long.

Because moving forward and backwards through the field is constant, the best advice for Fantasy Live is to start drivers who qualify at the back of the field and take advantage of pass differential.

One look at the value totals for the budget drivers will show the value available with budget options. This is the best opportunity to gain on the competition, so take chances this week. The suggested drivers below are the preliminary roster suggestions until qualifying. Check back in the comments after qualifying for additional roster advice and hope your team misses “the big one”.

The driver who is a clear choice for restrictor plate tracks in Dale Earnhardt Jr. Junior won the May race and led 67 laps. In three restrictor plate races in 2015, Earnhardt Jr. has a 1.7 average finish position and two wins. In these three races, the 88 car has led the most laps and has spend 98% of his laps in the top-15. His history of staying at the front of the field may keep him in front of the inevitable big wreck during the race. In his last five Talladega races, Junior has an average finish position of 15.4 and has led the 3rd most laps of any driver. Expect Dale Earnhardt Jr. to find his way on many lineups; he is not a great options for those needing to gain points in their leagues. My biggest concern is that he needs to win to advance and may take unnecessary risks to try to earn an automatic qualifier.

Due to having the 10th best average finish position of drivers in 2015, I debated the next roster decision. The numbers were too much in the driver’s favor at the track, and I decided to recommend Jimmie Johnson based on track numbers. Jimmie Johnson finished 2nd in the May race and has a 3rd place average in three restrictor plate tracks this year. He has led the most laps of any driver over the last five Talladega races. He has also stayed at the front of the field with 90% of his laps in the top-15. Johnson is not as clear of a roster pick as Junior, and he may be a key to gaining on your competition as he stays under the radar. Johnson is not Chase eligible, but he will still make every effort to win this week’s race. His restrictor plate success is enough to consider him for your roster.

Paul Menard finished in 3rd during the May race and is a sneaky pick for your roster. Although no long Chase eligible, the 27 car has a 15th place average finish position in three restrictor plate races in 2015. Seventy-eight percent of his laps has been in the top-15. Like other drivers, I am hoping that will keep him in front of the big wreck. Over the last five Talladega races, Menard has a 15th place average finish position and three top-10 finishes. With only an 18th place average finish position in 2015, Menard will stay under the radar of many rosters and could be a good play.

Adding Menard to the roster enables additional salary cap to be allocated to the final two roster spots. Casey Mears has a 15th place average finish position for three restrictor plate races in 2015. He did not find much success earlier this year in Talladega and finished 28th. Mears has a 22nd place average so far in 2015, and his salary cap figure is low. David Gilliland finished 20th in the May race. I am slightly fantasy biased against Gilliland because he has a tendency of finishing poorly whenever he has found my roster. Nonetheless, Gilliland has two top-10 finishes in his last five Talladega races and outperforms his average finish position on this track. He will probably be bumped, however, for the lowest qualifier.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Talladega races. Next, we divide that number by the driver’s salary cap figure to determine which drivers provide value at a track. For the first time since early in the season, Kevin Harvick is off my roster. We will use his numbers over the past five Talladega races to further illustrate the formula.

KEVIN HARVICK AT TALLADEGA

  • Average finish position last five Talladega races: 15.2 equals 28.8 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 10.4 equals 10.4 Fantasy Live points
  • Laps led: 19 equals 1.9 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast laps: 17 equals 1.7 Fantasy Live points
  • Fantasy Live points per race: 42.8
  • Salary Cap figure: $28.75
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 42.8 divided by $28.75 equals 1.49 points per dollar

It is important to check on qualifying before setting your roster this week. Once again, this is a week to take risks as the upcoming tracks may not provide you with the same opportunities to gain points on your competition. Below are the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver in the series:

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 1.87
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.75
  • Kevin Harvick 1.49
  • Matt Kenseth 1.43
  • Denny Hamlin 1.08
  • Kurt Busch 1.04
  • Kyle Busch 0.91
  • Carl Edwards 0.67
  • Joey Logano 0.64
  • Brad Keselowski 0.61

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Clint Bowyer 1.97
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.65
  • Paul Menard 1.60
  • Jamie McMurray 1.43
  • Ryan Newman 1.30
  • Kyle Larson 1.25
  • Aric Almirola 1.08
  • Jeff Gordon 0.80
  • Kasey Kahne 0.60

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Sam Hornish Jr. 2.98
  • Greg Biffle 1.46

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 3.62
  • Justin Allgaier 3.26
  • Cole Whitt 3.17
  • Bobby Labonte 2.65
  • Michael Waltrip 2.55
  • AJ Allmendinger 2.31
  • Ryan Blaney 1.49
  • Danica Patrick 1.30
  • Casey Mears 1.28
  • Austin Dillon 1.19
  • Tony Stewart 0.41
  • Trevor Bayne (-0.34)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Matt DiBenedetto 7.13
  • Travis Kvapil 6.38
  • Josh Wise 6.10
  • Landon Cassill 5.14
  • JJ Yeley 4.63
  • David Gilliland 4.36
  • Michael Annett 2.57
  • Alex Bowman 2.44
  • David Ragan 2.40
  • Michael McDowell 1.75
  • Timmy Hill 0.84