NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 NEW HAMPSHIRE, 5-HOUR ENERGY 301

Last week at Kentucky Speedway, our fantasy live standings became divided into those who started Kyle Busch and those who did not start Kyle Busch. The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series kicks off the second-half of the season by moving north for their first installment at Louden. Over the past five years at New Hampshire, the top-drivers in the Series have a tendency to be successful at the track. There is not one team that is extremely dominating, and several teams have found success.

The key to victory in your NASCAR Fantasy Live league is to capture the drivers who will be out front this week. My suggestion is to front-load your roster with three of the top-drivers and fill your remaining roster spots with the best available value.

THE DRIVERS BELOW HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SUCCESS THIS WEEK

The first pick for my roster is the NASCAR leader in 2015 in laps led, average finish position, and lap-to-lap performance. With his success through the first-half of the season, Kevin Harvick will stay on my roster unless he hits an unexpected slump. His New Hampshire numbers are modest, but nothing to scare you away from keeping him in your lineup. Harvick has seen two top-10 finishes in his last five New Hampshire races and an average finish position of 14.2. Over the long-term, Harvick has enjoyed 10 top-10 finishes in his last 20 New Hampshire races and an average finish position of 13.8. I expect him to improve on his averages this week.

Brad Keselowski has seen recent success in New Hampshire. He has the best lap-to-lap performance of any driver and an average finish position of 5.8 in his last five New Hampshire races. His 236 laps led and 185 fast laps over the same time span are the best in the series. With four top-10 finishes in his last five starts and 92% of his laps in the top-15, you can expect positive results from the #2 Car. Over the long-term, Keselowski has seen seven top-10 finishes in 11 New Hampshire races and an 11th place average finish position. While he has not shown the consistency that you would like to see from a top-driver, Keselowski is in the top-10 in the Series in average finish position, laps led, and lap-to-lap performance.

Fan favorite Dale Earnhardt Jr. is my third roster spot recommendation this week. He has five straight top-15 finishes at the track and an average finish position of 10.4 over his last five races. This season, Junior is in the top-5 in average finish position and lap-to-lap performance. His laps led are not as strong, but Dale Earnhardt Jr. has a high probability for success in New Hampshire. I may swap him out for Kenseth or Hamlin after qualifying.

The drawback of front-loading your lineup is that the pickings are slim for the rest of your roster. Justin Allgaier had a top-20 finish last year in New Hampshire. Although he is a risky pick on a week-to-week basis, his price tag is low enough to be worth the risk. Michael Annett averages around a 30th place finish in two starts last year. This translates to 3.88 Fantasy Live points per dollar and presents the best value for the budget drivers. He should do enough to be worth a roster spot.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to keep us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five New Hampshire races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number that shows how much value to expect from each driver at new Hampshire. For his last five New Hampshire races, Matt Kenseth has an average finish position of 9.8 and 90% of his laps in the top-15. While his numbers are impressive, he missed the cut for my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use his New Hampshire numbers to further illustrate the formula.

MATT KENSETH AT NEW HAMPSHIRE

• Average finish position last five New Hampshire races: 9.8 equals 33.2 points per race
• Start-to-finish differential: Plus 5.6 equals 5.6 points per race
• Laps Led: 152 equals 15.2 points per race
• Fast Laps: 70 equals 7 points per race
• Total points earned per race: 62
• Salary cap figure: $25.75
• Points per dollar: 62 divided by $25.75 = 2.40 Fantasy Points per dollar

Below you will find the points per dollar for all of the drivers in the series. For rookies with no track history, we will use their numbers for all 2015 races to give you an idea of their value. This week’s suggestions are highlighted in bold. Feel free to share your rosters in the comments.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

• Brad Keselowski 3.17
• Matt Kenseth 2.41
• Denny Hamlin 2.40
• Kyle Bush 2.27
• Martin Truex Jr. 1.78
• Jimmie Johnson 1.61
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.56
• Kevin Harvick 1.54
• Jamie McMurray 1.38
• Jeff Gordon 1.18
• Joey Logano 1.08
• Kurt Busch 0.80

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

• Kyle Larson 2.50
• Clint Bowyer 1.83
• Carl Edwards 1.53
• Aric Almirola 1.50
• Kasey Kahne 1.24
• Paul Menard 1.08
• Ryan Newman 0.95

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

• Austin Dillon 2.74
• Tony Stewart 2.44
• AJ Allmendinger 2.09
• Greg Biffle 1.96

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

• David Gilliland 1.81
• Sam Hornish Jr. 1.63
• Danica Patrick 1.30
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.30
• David Ragan 1.17
• Cole Whitt 1.02
• Casey Mears 0.88

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

• Michael Annett 3.88
• JJ Yeley 2.91
• Alex Bowman 2.78
• Matt DiBenedetto 2.53 *
• Timmy Hill 2.34
• Jeb Burton 2.00 *
• Landon Cassill 1.79
• Reed Sorenson 1.67
• Justin Allgaier 1.18
• Timmy Hill n/a
• Derek White n/a
• Joey Gase n/a

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.