NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 KENTUCKY, QUAKER STATE 400

As we near the half-way point of the season, NASCAR moves back north to Kentucky Speedway. Let’s hope that this week’s race does not leave us holding our breath after a dangerous finish at 3:00AM in the morning. The track in Sparta is a newer one for the series, and there is no long-term data. Based on previous races at the track, my recommendation would be to front-load your lineup this week for the first three roster spots and fill the remaining roster spots with the best budget drivers available. Nine of the 10 top-drivers in Fantasy Live points per race at Kentucky have a salary cap figure of $24 or higher. I have a feeling one car will lead the majority of laps and our standing will be determined by who chooses the dominant car.

My first roster spot has the highest likelihood of success of any driver due to his success this season. Kevin Harvick has the most laps led of any driver in the series and has 10 top-10 finishes in the first 15 races in 2015. He also enjoys a series-best average finish position and 93% of his laps in the top-15. His track data is not as impressive, but is not bad enough to scare him off your roster. Harvick carries an 11th place average finish position, two top-10 finishes, and 83% of his laps in the top-15 in Kentucky races. At this point, the majority of Fantasy Live teams are starting Harvick week in and week out. There is no reason to make a change.

While the first driver was chosen due to his 2015 success, my second spot in my roster is a driver with track success and 2015 difficulties. Kyle Busch has three top-5 finishes and four top-10 finishes already in Kentucky. His 274 laps led and 139 fast laps are both second-best in the series. Also, Kyle Busch has spent 94% of his laps in the top-15. While he has not enjoyed the best luck since returning to the series from a broken leg, Kyle Busch is a high-risk choice who has a decent chance to become the dominant car in Kentucky.

Brad Keselowski has nine top-10 finishes through the first 15 races in 2015. He is in the top-10 in average finish position, laps led, and lap-to-lap performance data. With two victories at Kentucky, Keselowski is a solid option for your roster. His 346 laps led and 171 fast laps are the most in the series in Sparta. I like Keselowski’s chances for success this week. With a front-loaded lineup, there is little room for the final two budget drivers. Michael Annett finish 18th last year in Kentucky. With his low salary cap mark, he will provide value if he finishes anywhere near last year’s race (6.67 points per dollar!) There is nothing I like about Landon Cassill. He has a pedestrian 29th place average in Kentucky and an average finish position of 31.7 in 2015. He is my recommendation for now, but the fifth spot may change after qualifying.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned over the past five Kentucky race by each driver. Next, we divide this number by the salary cap figure to determine which driver provides the most salary cap driver. Martin Truex Jr. has been one of the top-3 drivers this season and has success at intermediate-sized tracks. With 14 top-10 finishes in the first 15 races this season, he could easily bump Kyle Busch or Keselowski in my lineup. For now, he if off my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use his Kentucky numbers to further illustrate the formulas.

MARTIN TRUEX JR AT KANSAS

• Average finish position at Kentucky: 13th place equals 31 points per race
• Start-to-finish differential: Plus three equals 3 points per race
• Laps led: 1 lap equals 0.1 points per race
• Fast laps: 6 laps equals 0.6 points per race
• Total points earned by race: 34.7 points per race
• Salary cap figure: $25.00
• Points per dollar: 34.7 points divided by $25.00 equals 1.40 points per dollar

Below you will find the Fantasy points per dollar for each driver at Kentucky. For rookies with no track history, we will use their 2015 numbers. As always, feel free to post your lineup in the comments. Good luck this week as we hit the half-way point of another great NASCAR season.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

• Kyle Busch 3.68
• Brad Keselowski 3.53
• Jimmie Johnson 2.87
• Matt Kenseth 2.54
• Jeff Gordon 1.67
• Kurt Busch 1.52
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.46
• Joey Logano 1.41
• Martin Truex Jr. 1.40
• Kevin Harvick 1.26
• Jamie McMurray 0.80
• Denny Hamlin 0.78

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

• Kasey Kahne 2.13
• Carl Edwards 1.64
• Ryan Newman 1.16
• Paul Menard 0.91
• Clint Bowyer 0.85
• Aric Almirola 0.41
• Kyle Larson (-1.28)

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

• Austin Dillon 1.58
• Tony Stewart 1.56
• AJ Allmendinger 1.40
• Greg Biffle 1.11

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

• David Ragan 2.54
• Casey Mears 2.32
• David Gilliland 2.14
• Cole Whitt 1.67
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.65
• Danica Patrick 1.44

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

• Michael Annett 6.67
• Alex Kennedy 3.21*
• Matt DiBenedetto 2.96*
• Justin Allgaier 2.53
• Brett Moffitt 2.38*
• Jeb Burton 2.20*
• Brendan Gaughan 2.00*
• Landon Cassill 1.91
• JJ Yeley 1.48
• Josh Wise 1.18
• Alex Bowman 0.63
• Michael McDowll 0.16

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.