NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 DOVER, FEDEX 400

The last time that we had a short track with drivers with consistent histories, I made the mistake of calling the track predictable. All four of my Yahoo drivers for the week proceeded to wreck in the race, and the fantasy gods had their day. Two months later, we have Dover International Speedway, where a few drivers are typically dominant. This time, I will not go as far as to call the track predictable in order to keep luck on my side.

Based on the amount of laps at the short track and the consistency of some drivers, my best suggestion is to front-load your lineup with the top three spots and fill the remaining two spots with the best budget driver possible.

My first choice as a recommended driver has not finished outside the top-20 in the last 20 races at Dover. With 2,581 laps led since 2005 at Dover, Jimmie Johnson is over 1,500 laps higher than the second driver in this categories (Kyle Busch 1,011). Over the last five races at the track, Johnson has led the most laps of any driver and has the most fast laps. During the same time span, he has spent 95% of his laps running in the top-15 and an average finish position of 5.0. Unless there is an unforeseen circumstance, Jimmie Johnson is an obvious choice for your lineup this week.

Kevin Harvick is going to continue to stay in my lineup until he cools off. He has provided the most fantasy live points per dollar of any driver in 2015. His Dover numbers are strong enough to continue to have him on your team. Since 2005, Harvick has led the third-most laps of any driver in the series and has a decent average finish position of 11.4. While there are other drivers with better numbers who will be off my roster this week, Harvick has spent 75% of his laps in the top-15. His long-term numbers should not scare you off either. While he has not been a dominant car, he has eight top-10 finishes and 17 top-20 finishes since 2005 at Dover. Keep Harvick in your lineup this week.

There are four drivers with dominant track numbers who are fighting for the third roster spot on my rosters. Two are recent fathers, and one is retiring at the end of the season. With the numbers being close, I am going to leave Kyle Busch off my team. Kyle Busch has the second-most laps led over the last five years and is a consistent driver at the track. With the numbers being close, Kyle Busch has a slightly higher risk associated with his leg injury. Matt Kenseth, with 12 top-5 finishes at Dover since 2005 can also be considered for your roster. Keselowski has been better in 2015 and runs strong at Dover, but Jeff Gordon’s numbers are too tempting to pass up. Early in the week, I will lean towards Jeff Gordon for the third roster spot while keeping a close eye on qualifying.

Gordon has been one of the least valuable drivers for Fantasy Live in 2015. He has not necessarily struggled, but he has not been rewarding fantasy owners even when the track numbers are in his favor. Over the past five races at Dover, Gordon has the best average finish position in the series (5.0). Also, he has spent 97% of his laps running in the top-15. His drawback is that he has only spent 98 of these laps at the front of the lineup. Over the long-term, Gordon has nine top-10 and 17 top-20 finishes since 2005. He has a high probability for success this week.

The drawback for a race where the top drivers are dominant is that finding budget options at the bottom of your roster proves to be more challenging. Cole Whitt has a 28th place average in three races at the track and has provided enough value to be functional at the bottom of your roster. With 3.33 fantasy points per dollar throughout 2015, Matt DiBenedetto has been the most valuable driver with a salary cap figure under $10.00 in 2015. Although he has no track history, he does not need to do a lot to provide value with such a low salary cap hit. I will keep an eye after qualifying and may tweak my lineup based on who is at the back of the field.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, start-to-finish differential, and finish position. In order to prevent us from starting the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula determines the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Dover races. Next, we divide that number by their salary cap figure to unveil which drivers are expected to provide the most value for your lineup each week. Kyle Busch is a slight risk with his leg injury, but I may regret leaving him off my roster for a safer option. As a consolation prize, we will use his Dover numbers to further illustrate our formula.

KYLE BUSCH AT DOVER

• Laps led last five Dover races: 563 equals 56.3 fantasy live points
• Fast laps last five Dover races: 187 equals 18.7 fantasy live points
• Average finish position last five Dover races: 13.6 equals 30.4 fantasy live points
• Start-to-finish differential last five Dover races: Negative 8.4 equals (-8.4) fantasy live points
• Average number of points last five Dover races: 97
• Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $25.25
• Points per Fantasy Dollar: 3.84

Below you will find the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver over the last five Dover races. Recommended drivers are in bold. We will use the 2015 numbers for all drivers with no history in Delaware. Good luck with your lineups as the summer series kicks off.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

• Jimmie Johnson 5.14
• Kyle Busch 3.84
• Jeff Gordon 2.67
• Kevin Harvick 2.25
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.00
• Brad Keselowski 1.92
• Joey Logano 1.62
• Matt Kenseth 1.39
• Kurt Busch 1.33
• Denny Hamlin 1.32
• Jamie McMurray 0.69

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

• Clint Bowyer 2.10
• Kyle Larson 1.49
• Carl Edwards 1.44
• Martin Truex Jr. 1.43
• Kasey Kahne 1.37
• Paul Menard 1.37
• Aric Almirola 1.37
• Greg Biffle 1.13
• Ryan Newman 0.67

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

• Tony Stewart 2.55
• Austin Dillon 0.97
• Sam Hornish Jr. 0.23

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.00
• Justin Allgaier 1.77
• David Ragan 1.69
• Danica Patrick 1.66
• Casey Mears 1.60
• David Gilliland 1.33
• AJ Allmendinger 1.20

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

• Matt DiBenedetto 3.33*
• Brett Moffitt 2.41
• JJ Yeley 2.09
• Cole Whitt 1.98
• Josh Wise 1.35
• Jeb Burton 1.27*
• Brian Scott 1.16*
• Alex Bowman 0.89
• Michael Annett 0.88
• Brendan Gaughan 0.71*
• Landon Cassill 0.60
• Mike Bliss 0.50
• Jeff Green: n/a
• Travis Kvapil: n/a

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.