After taking a week off for Easter, we return to racing in Texas. With a few top drivers struggling in Martinsville, some of us had an extra week to brood about the lackluster effort of our fantasy roster. The extra week off allowed me to research data points specific to Fantasy Live for each driver in relation to the first six races in 2015. This data helped me to point to drivers I have not yet considered this season. The conclusion is that you should start drivers with a salary cap figure above $25 and below $10. There were few drivers who provided adequate value in the middle, but generally the best value is at the top and bottom. As a result, my suggested strategy is to front-load your lineup and fill the remaining spots with value choices.
For one reason or another, Joey Logano has avoided my lineups so far this season. For the top drivers in 2015, Logano has the second-most Fantasy Live points per dollar after six races. Also, Logano has the best average finish position in Texas over the last five races. The only track where Logano has enjoyed better lap-to-lap performance over the last five races is at Michigan. When a top driver in the current season is on a top track, he should find your lineup. Joey Logano should provide value for your team this week.
The next pick for my roster is due to his 2015 success as opposed to success in Texas. Kevin Harvick is average 134 laps led per race so far in 2015. Success in laps led and average finish position has translated to a series-best 4.62 fantasy points per dollar this season. While Texas is not his best track in the series, he has averaged a respectable average finish position of 14.8. Also, he has 11 Top Ten finishes since 2005. Harvick gets a slight nod over Keselowski and Johnson due to his historical start in 2015. He will cool off, but I will keep him on my roster until he falls back to earth.
The most surprising success of 2015 is my third pick for my roster. Martin Truex Jr. is one of the few middle-priced driving providing value with 2.43 fantasy points per dollar in 2015. With worse teams, Truex has averaged a 13.2 finish position at Texas. Intermediate tracks are the most friendly to Truex, and he is a top five driver this season. With 15 Top 20 finishes in his last 19 races, Truex has a good change to outperform his value for a seventh week.
Truex’s addition to my roster provides me with a little more flexibility than I am used to for the final two roster spots. The battle for the fourth spot is a toss-up between Casey Mears and David Ragan. Mears has provided slightly higher points per fantasy dollar in 2015, but I feel that Ragan provides more upside. Ragan finally earned a top ten finish in Martinsville. While he has only averaged a 32nd place finish at Texas over the last five races, even an average finish will provide value for his salary cap figure.
I was surprised that the fifth roster pick provided the most value for regular drivers with a salary cap figure below $10. Cole Whitt has quietly been rewarding fantasy owners with 2.72 fantasy points per dollar after six races in 2015. He has a 28.5 average finish position in two Texas races. I like his chances to provide my team with value this week.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Texas races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how many points to expect per fantasy dollar for each fantasy driver. I am ticked off at Jimmie Johnson after Martinsville. Emotion should be left out of fantasy sports, but he will be off my lineup. His Texas numbers over the last five races are dominating, and I will use these numbers to illustrate our formula. Good luck bouncing back in Texas!
JIMMIE JOHNSON AT TEXAS
- Average finish position last five Texas races: 6.8 equals 37.2 points per race
- Start-to-finish differential last five Texas races: Negative 0.8 equals negative 0.8 points per race
- Laps led last five Texas races: 614 equals 61.4 points per race
- Fast laps last five Texas races: 283 equals 28.3 points per race
- Average points per race: 126.1
Below is the Fantasy Points per dollar for each driver over the past five Texas races. For drivers with no track history, we will use their numbers for 2015. This week’s suggested are in bold.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Jimmie Johnson 4.63
- Brad Keselowski 2.64
- Joey Logano 2.09
- Matt Kenseth 1.86
- Kyle Larson 1.81
- Denny Hamlin 1.43
- Jamie McMurray 1.24
- Kevin Harvick 1.20
- Jeff Gordon 1.07
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.00
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Greg Biffle 2.06
- Clint Bowyer 1.90
- Ryan Newman 1.82
- Kasey Kahne 1.20
- Paul Menard 1.20
- Carl Edwards 1.18
- Kurt Busch 0.72
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Martin Truex Jr. 2.43
- Tony Stewart 2.30
- Sam Hornish Jr. 1.97
- Aric Almirola 1.30
- AJ Allmendinger 1.30
- Trevor Bayne 1.11
- Austin Dillon 1.03
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- Justin Allgaier 2.54
- Danica Patrick 1.62
- David Gilliland 1.59
- Casey Mears 1.44
- David Ragan 1.08
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.85
- Ryan Blaney 0.53 *
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Brian Scott 3.53 *
- Michael Annett 3.28
- Cole Whitt 3.08
- DiBenedetto 2.40 *
- Brendan Gaughan 2.10 *
- JJ Yeley 2.00
- Landon Cassill 1.83
- Josh Wise 1.14
- Brett Moffitt 0.61
- Michael McDowell 0.56
- Alex Bowman 0.34
* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.
One reply on “NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 TEXAS, DUCK COMMANDER 500”
After qualifying, I considered a 4-41-78-13-Whitt team, but decided to stick with Logano and Ragan. My yahoo lineup this week is 4-41-78-21 (Ryan Blaney).