NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 ATLANTA, FOLDS OF HONOR QUIKTRIP 500

This week’s race in Atlanta will be hard-pressed to have a better racing stretch than the final twenty laps at Daytona. Congratulations to Joey Logano on earning the first win of the season. The NASCAR series moves north for a newly-scheduled March race in Atlanta. For Fantasy Live, the strategy changes from the restrictor plate tracks. This week, my suggested strategy is to front-load your lineup with the top drivers and fill in your final two roster spots with budget drivers.

The first pick on my team dominated the majority of the race last year. Kevin Harvick was in front of the race until a late wreck sent him to an average finish. With 296 laps led and 179 fast laps, Harvick is the best in the series in both categories over the last five races. His lap-to-lap performance over the same time span is second to Jeff Gordon. His historical numbers are not as impressive, with only seven Top 10 finishes in his last 16 Atlanta starts, but I feel his recent success overcomes his historical data.

Jeff Gordon has the best number in the series at Hampton. He was on my team last year when he wrecked early in the race. He was running some of the fastest laps in the field, but there were not enough cautions in the race for Gordon to get back on the lead lap. Over the last five races, Gordon has an average finish position of 7.8 and has the best lap-to-lap performance in the series. Since 2005, Gordon has finished in the Top Ten eleven times and the Top Twenty fifteen times. Gordon has an excellent chance for success this weekend.

By a narrow margin, Jimmie Johnson beat out Matt Kenseth for the third roster spot. Kenseth has more recent success, but Johnson has better long-term numbers at the track. Also, I think the Hendrick cars will have a slight advantage with the new setup rules. Johnson has a 14th place average over the last five races. Historically, he boasts eight Top Five finishes in sixteen races. I like his chances on my team this weekend.

With three of the top drivers in the series on my roster, there is little room for the final two roster spots. Regan Smith’s value climbed to $7.50 this week. With Kurt Busch’s equipment, he should provide great value at that price. Keep an eye on his status towards the end of the week, as he is expecting a child anytime. Michael Annett finished 21st in last year’s race. If he comes close to that number, he will be be a valuable choice.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers ever week, Fantasy Live uses a Salary Cap format. Our formula uses the number from the last five races at a given track. We calculate the average number of points earned by each driver. Then, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to identify the driver with the best value. Matt Kenseth is one of the most consistent drivers in the series, but is being left off my roster in favor of Jimmie Johnson. As a consolation prize, we will use his numbers to illustrate our formula.

MATT KENSETH AT ATLANTA

• Average finish position last five Atlanta races: 8.6 average equals 35.4 Fantasy Live Points
• Start to finish differential: Plus 1.6 = 1.6 Fantasy Live Points
• Laps led: 117 laps led = 11.7 Fantasy Live Points
• Fast laps: 63 fast laps = 6.3 Fantasy Live Points
• Total Fantasy Live points per race: 55 points per race
• Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $26
• Fantasy Points Per Race: 55 points / $26 = 2.11 points per dollar

Please review the numbers below for each driver’s points per fantasy dollar. Suggested picks are in bold and good luck building on your early success in the 2015.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

• Kevin Harvick 3.02
• Jeff Gordon 2.44
• Matt Kenseth 2.11
• Denny Hamlin 1.92
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.53
• Joey Logano 1.53
• Jimmie Johnson 1.35
• Jamie McMurray 1.24
• Kyle Larson 1.20
• Brad Keselowski 0.97
• Kasey Kahne 0.53

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

• Tony Stewart 2.46
• Carl Edwards 1.96
• Paul Menard 1.22
• Ryan Newman 1.21
• Greg Biffle 1.13
• Clint Bowyer 0.39

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

• Martin Truex 2.38
• Sam Hornish Jr. 1.55
• AJ Allmendinger 1.34
• Aric Almirola 1.17
• Austin Dillon 1.15

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

• Trevor Bayne 4.09
• Danica Patrick 2.52
• Justin Allgaier 2.30
• Casey Mears 1.80
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.71

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

• Regan Smith 4.53
• Landon Cassill 3.88
• Reed Sorenson 3.62
• Michael Annett 3.37
• JJ Yeley 2.95
• Ty Dillon 2.87
• Brett Moffitt 2.83
• Cole Whitt 2.82
• David Gilliland 2.62
• David Ragan 1.23
• Alex Bowman 0.60
• Josh Wise 0.60