Month: September 2018

The first round of the playoffs are in the book and Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, Austin Dillon, and Erik Jomes were eliminated with Johnson eliminating himself by going into the final chicayne as he was trying to pass Martin Truex Jr. for the win. If he would have been happy to finish second he would still be in contention, but I guess that isn’t how he wants to win championships, by backing his way in.

GANDER OUTDOORS 400

The second round of the playoffs will start at the Dover International Speedway, otherwise known as The Monster Mile. Just as this name suggests, it is a one-mile track that has a lot of banking in the corners which makes for some fast laps and multiple racing grooves. This is one of my favorite tracks on the circuit, because you normally see some great racing here.

Kevin Harvick: I am going to go with Kevin to win the first race of the second round and get himself qualified for the third round. He won the race here in May when he led over two-hundred laps in that race. He has been fast all season and this is the time to get himself back on track and back to the win column.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has three career wins here and has finished in the top two in his last three fall races at Dover. He also has finished in the top five in twelve of his twenty-seven starts at this track. I still think it is going to be difficult to knock out the top three in this round no matter if they win or not, but they don’t want to be taking that chance.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin has two wins at this track and is on a streak of four straight top five finishes here. In fact he hasn’t finished worse than eleventh in his last nine races at Dover. I really think we’re going to see each of the Big Three finish in the top five once again this weekend.

Chase Elliott: Chase is still very much in contention for the championship. This is one of his best tracks in the whole series. He has only run five races here, but in those five races he has four top five finishes and his worst finish here was a twelfth place finish which he pulled off earlier this year before they found some more speed, so I look for him to improve on that finishing position this weekend.

Kyle Larson: Kyle had one of the best if not the best car last week on the Roval at Charlotte before he was involved in a wreck on a late race restart. After that he needed help to advance and he got that help and now he needs to see if he can capitalize on the gift. In his nine starts at Dover he has seven top ten finishes and only one of those was outside the top eleven.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has been the hottest driver over the past month or so and could very easily have won the race last weekend in Charlotte. In his last five starts at Dover, Brad has finished in the top ten four times. A win in the first race of this round would be huge for this team by propelling them into the third round of the playoffs.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has an astounding eleven wins at this track in thirty-three starts. He is no longer in the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t want to win the rest of the races this year. I don’t know if they have found the speed they need yet or if they are going to try some different things with their setups as they prepare for next season, but you can’t count Jimmie out at this track.

Clint Bowyer: Clint finished second in the spring race here and has finished in the top ten fourteen times in his twenty-five starts here. He hasn’t always been on one of the top funded teams for his entire career, so that makes those stats a little more impressive. He hasn’t necessarily been running at his most consistent lately, but it only takes one win to make it to the next round.

Daniel Suarez: Once again, Daniel doesn’t have a lot of starts at Dover. In fact he only has three starts here, but in those three starts he has always finished in the top ten and started in the top ten. I thought he would run a little more consistently on the short flat tracks this season and he never really did much on those, but this might be the place where he shows us what he has.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has four top ten finishes in his last five starts here, but I’m not sure if he has what it takes at this point. Almost every week I thought he had a chance to win a race he never really ran well at all even if he qualified well and practiced well. I don’t think this team knows what they need to do with their adjustments as the race goes on and that takes them out of contention early in races.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Kevin Harvick
• Kyle Busch

Driver Group Game Group B

• Chase Elliott
• Clint Bowyer
• Aric Almirola
• Daniel Suarez

Driver Group Game Group C

• William Byron
• Chris Buescher

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Kyle Busch
3. Martin Truex Jr.
4. Chase Elliott
5. Kyle Larson

Dark Horse: Daniel Suarez

Stay Away From: Ryan Blaney

Big 18: Chase Elliott

Once again I have to write this before the second race as I will be out of internet range again early next week. I want to apologize to those of you who submit questions to me while I am away that I can’t answer for you. Hopefully I can make it home early enough next week to help you all out. I should be available off and on again for the rest of the season to try and hand out any advice you might need during the week, but I know there will be some weekends where I am not going to be able to help again in early October.

BANK OF AMERICA ROVAL 400

For the last race of the first stage of the playoffs the series heads to the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course for the running of the Bank of America Roval 400. The Roval is a road course that has never been used in a NASCAR race until this weekend. There was testing done by the drivers, so they at least have seen the course and been able to make some laps on it. The thing is no one knows what to expect under race conditions. This is going to be a 109-lap race on a 2.28 mile track which comes out to about 400 kilometers.

I think the thing to do here is go with those who have always performed well on the road course tracks and probably lean towards those who have more patience as they will learn as they go and the only way to learn is to make sure you stay on the track and keep your car in one piece.

Kyle Busch: I am going to contradict myself a little bit here and say Kyle wins the race this weekend. He might not have the most patience of the drivers, but he is by far the most consistent driver when it comes to racing on the road courses. With four wins, ten top five and eighteen top ten finishes in his twenty-eight starts he has shown that he can get the job done on both of the tracks that he has run on in the Monster Energy Cup Series.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin has won two of the last six road course races and could have possible won a couple more of them. This includes both of his wins and a runner-up finish in his last three road course starts. Martin is also one of the more patient drivers on the track and has a great crew chief that knows how to settle him down if he does get excited. I think he could come away with another top five finish here this week.

Denny Hamlin: Denny only has one win at this type of track and that came in the last three years as he was on a four race streak of finishing in the top five at the road course tracks. This team is hit and miss this season, but I still think they can come away with a win yet this year. It might not be a sure thing this weekend, but I think he could be another top five driver.

AJ Allmendinger: AJ knows how to drive on these tracks, but his finishing position doesn’t always show that. I think that if he can stay patient and keep his car on the track he will have a shot here this week. There could be a lot of drivers who are pushing too hard on a track they know nothing about that are going to get in big trouble and take themselves out of the race which means there won’t be quite so much competition.

Kurt Busch: Another driver that needs to have some patience early and he could be a contender at the end. Kurt has not finished worse than twelfth in his last twelve road course starts. Those are phenomenal numbers when you consider any little mistake can cost you any number of positions and the wear and tear on a car as it hops around all over the track. He is another driver you will want on your team this weekend.

Clint Bowyer: Clint has three top five finishes in his four starts at this type of track since joining Stewart-Haas Racing last season. Clint likes to beat and bang with the rest of the drivers on these tracks and usually comes out not too much worse for wear. He seems to know how to position his car and where the best places to pass on these tracks are and takes advantage of that knowledge.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has finished in the top ten in seven of his last nine road course starts including a win and a runner-up finish in his last two Sonoma starts. Seeing I haven’t seen a race at this track, I don’t know if it conforms closer to Sonoma or Watkins Glen, but I have a sneaking suspicion that it is going to be its own unique configuration. Yet, as good as he has been all season, I think he will fair well here this weekend too.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is still looking for his first career win at a road course, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t run well at these tracks. He is also another one of those drivers who will trade paint all during the race, get beat, and then say something to the effect of how much fun he had and praise the other drivers who finished better than him. That is the right attitude to have when you are going into the unknown.

Chase Elliott: Let’s not forget that Chase won his first ever Cup race at Watkins Glen earlier this year. He has only run six road course races in this series and came away with three top ten finishes in his last four starts including that win. It seems he really likes to run on this type of track and learns a little more every time he goes out there. Now that he has one win, others could easily follow on the road courses.

Joey Logano: Joey is another of those drivers who always seems to have a pretty good car at these tracks and then runs into some type of problem that takes him out of contention. He is someone you might want to take a chance on this weekend because he does know how to get around these tracks and he has the same amount of experience as the rest of the field at this track.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY ROVAL

Driver Group Game Group A

• Kyle Busch
• Martin Truex Jr.

Driver Group Game Group B

• Clint Bowyer
• Kurt Busch
• AJ Allmendinger
• Ryan Newman

Driver Group Game Group C

• Michael McDowell
• David Ragan

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY ROVAL

1. Kyle Busch
2. Martin Truex Jr.
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Kurt Busch
5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Daniel Suarez

Stay Away From: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Big 18: Kurt Busch

The playoff field has been set after a rain delayed finally of the regular season on Monday. NASCAR didn’t need this to happen as they are losing fans at an alarming rate and to have one of the biggest races of the season get postponed by rain was a disaster. Most people attending race weekends have an itinerary that sends them home after the race on Sunday or early Monday morning. A lot of fans have to be back to work on Monday or Tuesday and can’t attend a race that has been postponed. This could have a huge affect with people buying tickets to the final race of the regular season next year.

SOUTH POINT 400

Kyle Busch won the regular season championship and he and Kevin Harvick will enter the playoffs in a virtual tie with the same amount of playoff points which is fifty for each. Martin Truex Jr. will start fifteen points behind those two drivers and Brad Keselowski is seeded fourth already thirty-one points behind the leaders. Points are reset after each three race stage for those advancing, so you can see the advantage the top two drivers have in their quest to make the championship race in Miami at the end of the year.

So, the playoff start at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway with the running of the South Point 400. This is the first of many intermediate tracks on the circuit that have all been won by drivers in a Ford or a Toyota this season. I see this trend continuing through the playoffs unless someone in a Chevrolet wins on fuel mileage or some great pit strategy that plays out well for them. Drives who are in a Chevy that I think have a chance of winning on one of these tracks are Chase Elliott or Kyle Larson.

Kevin Harvick: I am picking Kevin to win the first race of the playoffs and get himself qualified for the second round right away and gain at least another five playoff points going forward. He has won two of the last four races here while leading over 350-laps in those two wins. This team has been fast every week with no exceptions. The only thing that can stop them this week if trouble on pit road which has plagued them quite a bit this season.

Kyle Busch: Not to be outdone by too much, Kyle has three top five finishes in his last five starts here including a runner-up finish this spring. He considers this his hometown track and hasn’t won here since the 2009 season. Kyle knows how important it is to gain more playoff points to get him through every round as he sets his sights on Miami in November.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin won the race at Las Vegas last year and has three top five finishes in his last four starts here. This is where Martin made his bread and butter when he won the championship last season. He has quite a few playoff points which should help him get through the first round, but after that one bad race could cost him. I look for him to contend here once again this week.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is on a roll with back to back wins in the two races leading up to the playoffs. He has finished in the top seven in his last six starts at Las Vegas including two wins in that stretch. It means a lot to know you have the speed and handling to win races at this point of the season, so this team will come into the playoffs with a lot of confidence. I look for them to run towards the front of the field again this week.

Ryan Blaney: Ryan has had a fast car for most of the year and sat on the pole for the spring race here and finished fifth. He has only run four races here and has finished in the top seven in his last three. Ryan could be one of the surprises of the playoffs because he has been so close to winning races all year and if those wins start coming now he will have a shot to win the championship this year.

Joey Logano: The third Penske driver to be mentioned by me, Joey has five straight top ten finishes here with three of those starts coming on the front row. In ten starts at this track Joey has never finished worse than twenty-third and has only failed to complete one lap in those ten races. Anyone who can stay on the lead lap in nine out of ten races anywhere and only lose one lap has to be on your radar.

Erik Jones: Erik has really come on in the second half of the season after winning at Daytona in July. This is his type of track and in his two starts at Las Vegas he has come away with a fifteenth and an eighth place finish. I think he improves on those numbers this week and will finish somewhere in the top ten again and could possibly come away with another top five finish. He is another driver who could be a surprise during the next ten races.

Kyle Larson: Kyle has finished in the top three in his last two starts at this track. Everyone thought he would run up high all year long and he has surprised us by running down low more often than not. I think learning to do that earlier this season can only help him in the playoffs when he will need to search around the track to find speed to keep himself in the mix throughout the races.

Aric Almirola: He has come close a number of times only to have something unfortunate happen to him late in races. Yet, he has shown that he has the same speed as the rest of the Stewart-Haas drivers and the intermediate tracks are where he is usually at his best. He has only finished in the top ten here once in ten starts, but that finish came this spring. I am throwing out those stats and picking him as my dark horse this week.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie hasn’t shown us much of anything this season. He hasn’t won a race or even a stage as we enter the playoffs and that puts his at a major disadvantage. Can he and Chad Knaus find that magic once again and can they find enough to get them to Miami? Doubtful in my opinion. However, he has only finished outside of the top sixteen once in his last nine starts here. He has led laps in six of his last seven starts here and won three straight at this track from 2005-2007. He needs to have a great finish right off the bat if he has any inkling of making noise this year.

DRIVER GROUP GAME FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Driver Group Game Group A

• Kevin Harvick
• Brad Keselowski

Driver Group Game Group B

• Ryan Blaney
• Erik Jones
• Aric Almirola
• Austin Dillon

Driver Group Game Group C

• Alex Bowman
• Chris Buescher

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Brad Keselowski
3. Kyle Busch
4. Martin Truex Jr.
5. Ryan Blaney

Dark Horse: Aric Almirola

Stay Away From: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Big 18: Ryan Blaney