Month: September 2016

Congratulations to Kevin Harvick who battled hard and came away with the victory at Loudon last weekend. This gives Kevin an automatic bid to the second round of the Chase and takes the pressure off of him this coming week. Anything can still happen to the rest of the qualified drivers next week to help them advance or eliminate them from the Chase all together. Some teams need to win this race to advance, while others will be fighting for every point they can get to make it to the next round.

CITIZEN SOLDIER 400

The series heads to Dover International Speedway this week for the last race in the first leg of the Chase. Dover is a high banked, one-mile oval speedway that allows great racing with multiple grooves on the track as it rubbers in. Expect to see teams being able to come from the middle of the pack towards the front if they have their cars setup correctly because of the multiple grooves we should see. Drivers will be able to pass other cars on the high or low side and that makes for great racing.

Jimmie Johnson: I think this is the week Jimmie breaks out of his mini-slump this weekend and goes to victory lane for the eleventh time at this track. That’s right, Jimmie has ten wins here already in only twenty-nine starts. When you can win at any track once every three times you race there you wish you could run on this track every weekend and that is why I am making Jimmie my pick this weekend.

Matt Kenseth: Matt came close to picking up the win last week at New Hampshire and is sitting in a pretty good position points wise as we head into the third race of the Chase this weekend. Matt won the spring race here and has finished in the top ten in five of his last six starts here. Matt stays calm throughout the races and knows exactly what he needs to do to advance and won’t take any unnecessary risks that might eliminate him from contention.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won this race and finished second in the spring race last year. Now that he has grabbed one of the automatic bids to the next round this team has nothing to lose by trying to win another race here. They can take a few chances if they want to, but I don’t think they will need to. Solid pit strategy should keep them in contention, but mistakes by the crew on pit road could force them into making some decisions to get them back into contention to win this race.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin has one win at this track and has finished in the top ten in seven of his last eleven starts here. Martin is already qualified for the next round of the Chase and has been running very well every week on all of the tracks he has visited. Once again they have nothing to lose by taking chances to win this race and I think they are going to come to this track with a great handling race car once again. Momentum means a lot to these drivers and they don’t want things to change when they are going good.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has one win and two runner-up finishes in thirteen starts at this track. This team is sitting pretty good points wise heading into this elimination race. I look for them to be aggressive like always and be in contention late in this race. The championship is still a wide open race this year and the teams that are aggressive and don’t make mistakes will be the ones vying for the championship when we get to Homestead in November.

Kyle Busch: Kyle came close to picking up his fifth win of the year and also sits good points wise heading into this weekend’s race. When Kyle stays out of early trouble on the track here he comes away with great finishes. He needs to have a little bit of patience early and wait until they get the car adjusted to his liking before he takes to many chances and gets too aggressive. He needs to remember that you can’t win the race in the first half.

Chase Elliott: Chase started out very well this season and has done nothing but improve as the year has progressed. In his only start here earlier this year, Chase came away with a third place finish. This team could win a race before the end of the season and even if they don’t win one this year I think they will win multiple races next season. He has a lot of potential and right now is the most consistent driver in the Hendrick stable.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey had a great run at Loudon last weekend and is probably the most consistent driver at Dover who is not in the Chase. All they really have to shoot for is to try and pick up a win or two before the end of the season and hope to use any information and momentum they can obtain for next year. Kasey has finished in the top six in his last three starts here and could compete for the win this weekend.

Kyle Larson: Kyle has run five races at this track and his worst finish in eleventh. This team has really come on strong the second half of the season and needs another good run this weekend to move on to the next round of the Chase. He sits on the bubble right now with a five point lead over two other drives which means he can’t afford to have a bad finish if he wants to keep his hopes alive for a championship this season.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff will be back in the #88 car once again this weekend, subbing for Dale Earnhardt Jr. Jeff has always been very good at this track and has only finished outside of the top twenty once in his last nineteen starts here. When he has been subbing this year he has been okay, but this team just doesn’t seem to have the chemistry needed to win races between driver and crew chief, but he is still Jeff Gordon and can win a race at this track yet.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

• Jimmie Johnson
• Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Driver Group B

• Kyle Larson
• Martin Truex Jr.
• Kasey Kahne
• Carl Edwards

Yahoo Driver Group C

• Chase Elliott
• Jeff Gordon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Matt Kenseth
3. Chase Elliott
4. Martin Truex Jr.
5. Kyle Busch

Dark Horse: Kasey Kahne

Stay Away From: Austin Dillon

Big 18: Jimmie Johnson

Congratulations to Martin Truex Jr. who won the first race of this year’s Chase and is now qualified for the second round of the playoffs. Chase Elliott came close to winning the first race of his career once again, but was foiled by a late race caution where he came out of the pits just behind Truex and couldn’t make up the gap in the final laps. Joey Logano came in second, Elliott third, non-Chaser Ryan Blaney was fourth, and Brad Keselowski rounds out the top five.

NEW ENGLAND 300

For the second race in this round of the Chase we will travel back to the New Hampshire Motor Speedway. NHMS is a slightly longer than one-mile oval speedway. This track, also known as “The Magic Mile”, hosts two races each season and used to be the opening race of the Chase until a few years ago. It is a fairly flat track in comparison to most other tracks on the circuit, so we will look at the drivers who run well on this type of track.

Matt Kenseth: Matt is my pick to win the race this weekend. He has won the last two races at this track, so this team has something figured out with the setup and adjustments that need to be made to keep up with changing track conditions. Matt has three wins overall at this track and eighteen top ten finishes in thirty-three starts here. I think his patience and calm demeanor really help him at this track.
Denny Hamlin: Denny always seems to run very well at this track and has two wins and thirteen top ten finishes in his twenty-one starts here to show for it. After winning the race at Richmond just before the Chase started you have to consider putting him on your team as that is a similar though slightly shorter track than Loudon. As I said last week, Denny’s pit crew has been spot on lately and that will get you a lot of spots on the track.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie is another driver with three wins to his credit at NHMS and nineteen top ten finishes in twenty-nine starts here. This team looked very good last week at Chicago and maybe that will turn their fortunes around as the Chase progresses. I think that with the amount of intermediate tracks on the Chase schedule this team will have a shot at winning another championship if they can avoid any hiccups on the way to Homestead.

Tony Stewart: Tony finished second in the race here earlier this season and has won three times. Winning a race would go a long way in ensuring Tony doesn’t get eliminated in the first round as this team hasn’t been very consistent this year and if you have one bad race out of three it might be enough to knock you out. Getting the win gets you the automatic pass to the next round.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has one win here during his short career and always seems to run well on this type of track. After coming away with a top five finish at Chicago this team is positioned to move on with another good run this weekend. Brad just needs to stay out of trouble on the track and he will get the adjustments he needs to make his car competitive at the end of the race.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin got caught on pit road at Chicago under a green flag stop when the caution came out and trapped him a lap down. He never got to make that lap up and it cost him all of the bonus points he entered the Chase with. There is a little pressure on this team now as they can’t afford to have another poor finish and the pit crew hasn’t been at the top of their game this year.

Joey Logano: Joey has two win at this track and eight top ten finishes in his sixteen starts. He has also finished in the top four in his last four races here. After coming away with a second place finish at Chicago last weekend this is another team that is sitting in the driver seat so to speak as they try to move on to the second round of the Chase.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has finished first or second in four of his last seven starts here. Those are impressive stats at any track and this team needs to get back to their winning ways. They came back from a pit road speeding penalty to pick up a top ten finish last weekend and avoided putting a lot of pressure on themselves in the first round of the Chase.

Kyle Larson: Kyle has two top five finishes in only five starts at this track. They stumbled a little bit last week at Chicago when a tire problem took them out of contention for a top ten finish and now they need to come back with a great finish to keep the pressure off. It is hard to fathom how much pressure is on these teams when they only have three races to move on to the next round and one slip up can knock you out.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has won three times at this track and this team needs another good run or a win to get themselves back on track. Kurt has struggled here a bit over the past twelve races here with only two top ten finishes and those were both tenth. They can’t afford to let an opportunity at a short track pass them by as this is where they usually make hay.

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Yahoo Driver Group A

• Matt Kenseth
• Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

• Kyle Larson
• Tony Stewart
• Ryan Newman
• Greg Biffle

Yahoo Driver Group C

• Chase Elliott
• Ryan Blaney

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

1. Matt Kenseth
2. Kyle Busch
3. Joey Logano
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Kevin Harvick

Dark Horse: Greg Biffle

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Big 18: Ryan Newman

The field for the Chase is set now that the Richmond race is in the books with nobody getting knocked out that was in before the race started. Made for a bit of a boring race when no one was even close to bumping someone else out of the Chase, but that’s the way it goes some years. Congratulations to Denny Hamlin on winning his third race of the year and kudos to his pit crew for being on top of their game all season.

TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES 400

The Chase starts at Chicagoland Speedway this weekend and the next ten races will determine which of the sixteen qualifiers will win the 2016 Sprint Cup Championship. This is the first of many mile-and-a-half tracks on the schedule for the remainder of the season. Win and you automatically move on to the next round. After the next three races four drivers will be eliminated from contention and this continues until the final race at Homestead, where four drivers will vie for the championship in a best finish is champion scenario.

Kevin Harvick: I am going to pick Kevin to win the race this weekend and be the first automatic qualifier for the second round of the Chase. Kevin won the first two races run at this track and has finished in the top five in eight of his fifteen starts here. Last year he finished 42nd and that put him in a precarious position that he wants to avoid at all costs this year as he looks to reclaim his title of NASCAR champion.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has won two races at this track during his career which has only spanned seven races here. Right now there is a little bad blood between this Penske driver and Matt Kenseth who always seems to have an issue with either Brad or Joey Logano as we enter the Chase and during it. If Brad can stay clean and avoid the ire of other drivers he is racing close to on the track, he will be in contention to win this race.

Kyle Busch: The defending NASCAR champion won a race here back in 2008 and has finished in the top ten in his last four starts here. He has also led more laps than any of the other drivers here in the last two races. Running in the Xfinity series helps Kyle figure out the tracks and tire wear a little better than drivers who don’t get all of that seat time on Saturday and can be the difference between winning and losing a Cup race.

Denny Hamlin: Denny won this race last year and has momentum on his side as we enter the Chase. His pit crew has been outstanding lately and that helps Denny pass a lot of cars in the pits. If he can get a good pit stall selection and his crew continues to perform the way it has been, Denny will be a serious contender for his first NASCAR championship.

Kyle Larson: Kyle has only run two races at Chicagoland Speedway and he has finished no worse than seventh here while leading laps in both of those races. This is another team that has run very well every week for the past month and has had shots at winning the last three races. All of the Chip Ganassi teams have really been running well lately and showing speed on the track and that is a great sign for Kyle.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has run fifteen races at this track and has one win to show for it. The really impressive things about him here are that he has only failed to finish three laps in all of those races and he has led laps in ten of those fifteen races. Matt has his emotions under control when it comes to relaying information to his crew chief early in the race so their car is handling the way they want it to at the end of the race and giving them a shot at a win.

Joey Logano: Joey is looking for his first win at this track and he has improved with every race he has run here. He sat on the front row in two of his last three starts here and finished in the top ten in three of his last four starts. The Penske teams have been a close second to the Joe Gibbs teams all season with the speed and power of their cars and that show in the five races the two drivers have won so far this season.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has finished in the top ten in nine of his fifteen starts here. Although he is looking for his first win at this track, this team has the capability of winning on any track configuration at any time. I think he is better on the flatter tracks, but he has won on the mile-and-a-half tracks during his career and needs to do that if he wants to win his second championship.

Jimmie Johnson: The six time Sprint Cup Champion has struggled the past few years leading up to and through the Chase. They won their championships by being great at this type of track and need to get that magic back if they want to claim number seven. I think they are missing something with the new rules package that causes them to spin out more often now and once they figure out what that reason is they will go on another tear. The problem is they don’t have any more time to figure out what the problem is.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin is one of the favorites to win the championship this year as we head into the Chase. He has struggled at Chicagoland in the past having finished in the top ten only twice in the ten races he has run here. I think we can throw those statistics out the window because Martin has shown he can run on any track this season regardless of how he has run on them in the past. Barring any major catastrophes, this team will be one of the four teams still in when we get to Homestead.

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Yahoo Driver Group A

• Kevin Harvick
• Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

• Martin Truex Jr.
• Kyle Larson
• Ryan Newman
• Jamie McMurray

Yahoo Driver Group C

• Chase Elliott
• Ryan Blaney

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT INSERT TRACK NAME

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Kyle Busch
3. Martin Truex Jr.
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Matt Kenseth

Dark Horse: Chase Elliott

Stay Away From: Greg Biffle

Big 18: Chase Elliott

There is now only one race left before the start of the Chase and there are still a few unanswered questions. Can Chris Buescher remain in the top thirty in points and make the Chase? He currently holds an eleven point lead over David Ragan for that spot. Will a driver who hasn’t won a race yet this season win at Richmond and knock another driver out who would have made it on points? It can happen. Can Ryan Newman make up a seven point deficit on Jamie McMurray and take the final Chase spot away from him? We will find out the answers to all of these question on Saturday night!

FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400

Richmond International Raceway is a short-track. At just 3/4 of a mile and with only fourteen degrees of banking in the corners, starting towards the end of the field can lead to poor finishes in a hurry. Qualifying will be very important for all drivers, but especially important for those with Chase aspirations on the line. A poor qualifying effort or any reason a driver has to start at the rear of the field spells almost certain doom for a driver at this track.

Kyle Busch: Kyle is my pick to win the race this weekend at RIR. Kyle has won four times here in his career, which leads all active drivers. He also has finished in the top five in fifteen of his twenty-two starts and had led over one-thousand laps at this track. This is the perfect chance for him to win his fifth race of the season and be the number one ranked driver when he starts defending his Sprint Cup Championship from last year.
Kevin Harvick: Kevin probably would have won the race last week at Darlington if his team wouldn’t have had so many problems in the pits. There were three or four times where they had horrible stops and Kevin would lose a lot of spots that he had to make up on the track after dominating much of the early part of the race. With three wins and nineteen top ten finishes in thirty-one starts here, Kevin will give Kyle a run for his money this weekend.
Denny Hamlin: Denny had a great race last weekend and will try and build on that momentum this week at Richmond. He has led over fourteen-hundred laps at this track on his way to two wins and eleven top ten finishes in twenty starts here. This team looks to be improving and the right time of the year and just needs to stay consistent now. They have been one of the fastest teams on pit road all season and that in itself is a huge advantage for a driver.

Jeff Gordon: With Dale Earnhardt Jr. announcing he will not race again this season, Jeff and Alex Bowman will pilot the #88 for the rest of the season. This is one of Jeff’s weeks to drive the car once again. Though he hasn’t had the Jeff Gordon finishes we have come to expect throughout his career while subbing this year, you just never know when he is going to put another win in the books. With two wins, over sixteen-hundred laps led and thirty top ten finishes in his forty-six starts here, Jeff is someone you can use on your team.

Tony Stewart: Tony has won three times at this track and needs to get back to running well if he wants to make any noise once the Chase starts. I don’t expect NASCAR to issue any points penalties to Tony after he wrecked Brian Scott last weekend at Darlington, but he might get put on probation for the rest of the season which really doesn’t mean anything. His nineteen top ten finishes and 950 laps led here in thirty-four starts are reason enough to have him on your team this weekend.

Carl Edwards: Carl won the race here in April of this year for his second win at this track. This team really needs to become more consistent with the handling of their race car if they want to have a chance to win the championship this year. They have been terrible lately after qualifying well and we all know what happens to drivers who end up in the middle of the pack on restarts.

Jimmie Johnson: Speaking of a driver who needs to step up his game, Jimmie has really been struggling lately. They seem to have found some speed that they were lacking for a while, but they don’t seem to be getting the handling of the car right for Jimmie. This leads to spins and crashes when he tries to push the car harder than it is willing to go to make up time on the track. Still, he has won three times at this track so we know he can get the job done here.

Ryan Newman: Ryan’s lone win here came back in 2003. However, he hasn’t finished outside the top twenty since 2008 and has finished in the top ten in eight of the last fifteen races he has run here. He really needs to have another top ten and probably top five finish if he wants to make the Chase. I think he can do it, but there is going to be a lot of pressure on every single member of this team.

Kyle Larson: This is a team that has run very well the past two weeks while they won a race and had a chance at making it two. Kyle has only run five races at Richmond, but he has run them consistently well. He has never qualified worse than fifteenth here and has never finished worse than sixteenth. He has also completed every lap of every race he has run here. Another dark horse week for this team.

Chase Elliott: Chase has only run two races at this track and both of them have been in the spring. He has a twelfth and a sixteenth place finish in both of those races and just needs to stay out of trouble in this race and he will make the Chase. They can’t afford to wreck early and finish at the bottom of the pylon in this race or they could still miss out on making the Chase.

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Yahoo Driver Group A

• Kyle Busch
• Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

• Carl Edwards
• Kyle Larson
• Ryan Newman
• Tony Stewart

Yahoo Driver Group C

• Jeff Gordon
• Chase Elliott

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

1. Kyle Busch
2. Kevin Harvick
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Kyle Larson
5. Carl Edwards

Dark Horse: Tony Stewart

Stay Away From: Austin Dillon

Big 18: Tony Stewart