Jimmie Johnson punched his ticket to the championship race by virtue of his win at Martinsville last weekend. Carl Edwards, Kurt Busch, and Kevin Harvick had troubles and find themselves in a hole once again at the beginning of this round of the Chase. These drivers probably need to win one of the next two races if they want to move on to the championship race at Homestead.
AAA TEXAS 500
The series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the second race in this round of the Chase. This track is another of the mile-and-a-half tracks that make up the Chase. We will look at all of the drivers left in the Chase and decide which ones have a legitimate chance to win this race. We will also look at the drivers who have been eliminated or never made the Chase and see if any of these drivers can win this race.
Jimmie Johnson: I think Jimmie will win the race once again this weekend. Jimmie has won five of the last eight races he has started at this track and by winning more races he can eliminate some of the drivers who need a win to continue on and make sure he doesn’t have to race them at Homestead. We have seen this team win multiple races in a row in the past and they very well could do that again.
Kyle Busch: Kyle won the race here this spring and has finished in the top five in six of his last seven starts here including two wins. Kyle is the defending champion in this series and wants to win a race to guarantee himself a chance to defend his title when the series goes to Homestead in a few weeks. He also showed me his maturity in the past two years by racing smarter instead of harder and that can go a long way to winning a championship.
Kevin Harvick: Kevin almost needs to win one of the next two races to make it to the championship race once again. There is still a chance he can make it on points if someone ahead of him has some major problems on the track in the next two races and he is also the favorite at Phoenix next weekend. However, even though he hasn’t won a race at Texas yet, he has finished in the top three in three of his last four starts here.
Joey Logano: Joey currently sits in fifth place and is only four points out of the fourth position. He has run very well at Texas the past few years coming away with one win and five top five finishes in his last seven starts. This team always seems to have a good car and qualifies well every week and if they can keep up with the changing track conditions during the race they have a chance to win every race they start.
Carl Edwards: Carl is another driver who really needs to win one of the next two races if he wants to have a shot at winning the championship and with three wins at Texas in his career he has shown that he knows how to get the job done here. He has also finished in the top ten in his last four starts here. I think this team might take some chances this weekend if they need to because they really need to win this race.
Kurt Busch: Kurt is another driver that needs to win a race if he wants to make the championship race. He has one career win at Texas, but he has struggled a bit this year on this type of track. I don’t see this team flipping a switch and winning one of the next two races or making it into the championship race with a chance at the championship. They have some work to do.
Matt Kenseth: Matt always runs well at Texas and has two wins and thirteen top five finishes in twenty-seven starts. Any time a driver can finish in the top five in half of the races he starts at any track you have to consider having him on your team. I keep saying that Matt is great at staying calm during races and that is what could get him into the championship round.
Denny Hamlin: Denny won back to back races here back in 2010. Since that time he has only finished in the top ten twice in ten races. I think Denny just needs to come away with a top ten this week and I think he will be able to make it on points because he always runs well at Phoenix. He needs to look at the big picture this week and try not to put himself in a position where he finishes a lap down. He had another speeding penalty on pit road last week that he battled back from, but he can’t continue to do that.
Martin Truex Jr.: Even though he has been eliminated from the Chase, Martin came back and sat on the pole once again last weekend at Martinsville and we know how good he has been on the intermediate tracks this season. HE is still looking for his first win at this track, but he has finished in the top ten in his last three starts here and with the way he has run all year he might be able to pick up that first win this week.
Brad Keselowski: Another driver who was eliminated from contention, Brad is still looking for his first win at this track also. He has finished in the top ten here in six of his last eight starts and has the same speed as his teammate, Joey Logano, and could easily find himself winning another race this weekend and spoiling the party for another championship hopeful.
YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY
Yahoo Driver Group A
- Jimmie Johnson
- Kyle Busch
Yahoo Driver Group B
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Carl Edwards
- Kasey Kahne
- Jamie McMurray
Yahoo Driver Group C
- Chase Elliott
- Alex Bowman
MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY
- Jimmie Johnson
- Kyle Busch
- Kevin Harvick
- Matt Kenseth
- Martin Truex Jr.
Dark Horse: Chase Elliott
Stay Away From: Kurt Busch
Big 18: Kasey Kahne
30 replies on “2016 Texas Motor Speedway, AAA Texas 500”
Since Johnson won at Martinsville would I be better off starting someone else at Texas? Will they become too conservative?
Also do you like Truex more at Texas or Honestead? I have one start left.
Johnson will do everything he can to win this race. That way he might be able to keep a guy like Harvick from making the final by taking the chance for a win away from him. He would rather not have to race a guy like Harvick at Homestead. I would hold on to Truex for the last start at Homestead also, but have him on your team this week because he could get you qualifying points.
I can’t decide for my Fox sports fantasy. Either Kyle Busch, Keselowski, Kenseth, Edwards, Stewart —– OR —– Kyle Bush, Keselowski, Harvick, Stewart, Ty Dillon.
Play it safe or play big? lol And Ty dillon could change depending on qualifying obviously but Harvick is so dang expensive!
I don’t like Stewart in either scenario. He hasn’t run well on the mile and a half tracks for the past two years. Who else can you find? Stenhouse Jr., Almirola, Elliott, Bowman? I think Bowman might be a good inexpensive driver. Much better than Stewart.
Allmendinger or Biffle, keep going back and forth. 47 has had 3 top 10’s and finished no worse than 23rd at Texas in last 5 races, but has only been inside the top 20 in 2 of last 5 races. Biffle, is a former winner and has been in top 20 in 4 of last 5 races, finished 39th earlier this year after qualifying 14th. Biffle has finished higher Allmendinger in 7 of the last 10 races. Biffle and Allmendiger has both been hot/cold this year, with A.J. having a little streak going lately of 3 in a row top tens. So should I lean towards past averages/finishes or lean towards momentum heading into Sunday’s race at Texas?
Biffle hasn’t run well on this size track for the past two seasons. I would take my shot with Allmendinger.
I’m currently in third place looking for some points from someone surprising that most people won’t use. Are there anyone surprising coming up in the next three weeks? Biffle,Bowyer or anyone like them?
Newman, Biffle and Allmendinger might be okay at Phoenix. On the intermediates you should probably stick with Larson, Dillon, or take chances on Menard, McMurray, Kahne, Almirola, Stenhouse
Hey Jeff – I am in a league where you start one driver per week – I have Jimmie, Carl and Danica left – where would you use each one? I know Johnson is great at Texas
Take Carl at Phoenix. Jimmie will run well at both Texas and Homestead. I would probable take him at Homestead because we already know he will be racing for the championship.
Jeff, I can only have 1 driver per race….Thanks to you I won with Johnson, can’t take the same driver 2 weeks in a row. So Kyle Busch or Harvick, or is there another driver you would suggest.
If you can’t take Jimmie, I would go with Kyle. Can’t really go wrong with Harvick either, although his pit crew hasn’t been the best this year.
Kyle hit the wall during practice, has to go to a back up car. Do you still think he’s a better pick that Harvick. I know they both probably need to get a win to get in the last 4.
At this point of the weekend I would rather have Harvick. He was the fastest in the first practice session. I would wait until after practice tomorrow and see how they all do.
Still not sure after todays practice, Kyle or Harvick…..both need a win today or next week. Kyle looked better today than Harvick…
I agree with your assessment, but…. Isn’t there always a but? Harvick has really done well the past few years even if he doesn’t qualify or practice well. Then again, I picked Kyle as my second to Johnson this week and I would probably go with that intuition if it was me.
I agree with you…..
Who would u drop in your top 5 to gamble on chase
That’s a tough question. With Kyle hitting the wall and Jimmie running very slow I would drop one of them. However, hardly any of my top five ran more than 7 laps in practice.
Nobody left..desperate 3 races left..landon cassill,regan Smith or Chris buecher?
Out of those three I would take my chances with Buescher.
Three week left I’m in 3rd down 100pts For Texas Ky. Busch or Harvick for A list then which 2 of Truex Jr.,Edwards or Dillon for B list using Elliott last 3 races
My gut says go for Busch over Harvick. Start Dillon because he is on the pole and should lead some laps in this race.
I have Edwads, Truex, McMurray, and Kahne. I only have Edwards and Truex once more and was hoping to start Kahne and McMurray, but after practice I am not sure now. Who would you start?
19 and 78!
Tough call. I would like to keep Edwards for Phoenix and run Truex at Homestead. If Edwards makes the final use him there also. With that being said I would start Kahne and McMurray this week and hope for the best.
When will u post your phoenix preview
I will have it posted sometime Monday night.
My article has been posted for the Phoenix race!
Thank u I got a 9 pt lead with 2 wks to go didn’t wanna miss one thank u