Month: November 2015

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY, FORD ECOBOOST 400

After a rain-soaked Phoenix race, we are now in the Championship Round of the Sprint Cup Series. The four remaining drivers have all seen a degree of success in Homestead and should be a competitive race between the contenders. For the final week of Fantasy NASCAR, my advice is to start three of the Championship drivers in your lineup. Not only will they have the most to gain from winning the race, but having them in your lineup should make the race more entertaining. If you are in a position to take risks, then take off-the-wall suggestions and hope that the chaos that is fantasy racing works in your favor.

Of the remaining drivers, I feel that Kevin Harvick offers the best chance for victory. Harvick barely had the opportunity to be in this stage and needed a controversial finish at Talladega to help advance to the final round. Harvick was in the same position in 2014 and needed to win for the championship. Over the last five races at this track, Harvick has finished in the top-10 in every race with a 6th place average finish position. At similarly configured tracks, Harvick has two wins and five top-5 finishes. His 816 laps led on steep tracks in 2015 is 564 more laps led than the 2nd best driver. With 22 top-5 finishes in 2015, Harvick has found the consistency to be a contender all season and is a great choice for your lineup this week.

Another championship favorite this week comes from a one-car team. Though they appear to be underdogs to the more established teams, Martin Truex Jr. will be racing at one of his best tracks this weekend. Over the last five Homestead races, Truex Jr. has an 8th place average finish position. During the same time span, he has spent 84% of his laps inside the top-15. This figure is 2nd best in the series. My biggest concern with Truex Jr. is that he only has a 14th place average in similar track types. With a championship on the line, I expect the team with 23 top-10 finishes in 2015 to be a useful addition to your fantasy lineup.

The next roster spot was a close pick between Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch. My pick may come down to qualifying. For now, I am going with the retiring driver because he has found more consistency at the track. Kyle Busch has not been as consistent and narrowly misses my lineup. With the 2nd most laps led over the last five Homestead races and three top-10 finishes, Gordon has seen success at Homestead. I had written this team off in all occasions only a couple of months ago, but they have found consistency once the Chase started. Like Truex, Gordon has been underwhelming in similarly configured tracks and only has a 13th place average. Gordon will be a fan favorite to bow out of the NASCAR series with a championship in his last race. He is the less risky pick, but should be helpful to your lineup as well.

With three Championship eligible drivers eating up the majority of my budget, I need to go with budget options for the last two roster spots. Justin Allgaier has a great chance to outperform his salary cap figure this week. Allgaier finished in 15th place last year with 18% of his laps inside the top-15 during the race. His average finish of 25th on steep tracks in 2015 is not overly impressive, but even that should provide some value from his roster spot. Ty Dillon has a 22nd place average finish in limited action this season and has provided adequate fantasy value. He will be the final roster spot unless something stands out in qualifying.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Homestead races. Next, we divide that number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure. The end result is a number that predicts which drivers have a good chance to provide value this week. Since Kyle Busch is the odd man out of the championship drivers this week, we will use his numbers to further illustrate this formula.

KYLE BUSCH AT MIAMI-HOMESTEAD

  • Average finish position last five Homestead races: 21st equals 23 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 5.4 equals negative 5.4 Fantasy Live points
  • Laps led: 207 equals 20.7 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast laps: 100 equals 10 Fantasy Live points
  • Average Fantasy Live points per race: 48.3
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.75
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 48.3 divided by $27.75 equals 1.74 points per dollar

Below you will see the Fantasy Live points per salary cap dollar for each driver this week. We will use the 2015 numbers for rookies with no track history. I hope that your teams found success in the 2015 season. Daytona will be around the corner before we know it!

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Carl Edwards 2.79
  • Jeff Gordon 2.32
  • Kevin Harvick 2.21
  • Matt Kenseth 2.21
  • Denny Hamlin 2.16
  • Kyle Busch 1.74
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.61
  • Brad Keselowski 1.24
  • Joey Logano 0.69
  • Kurt Busch 0.67

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.29
  • Clint Bowyer 2.16
  • Ryan Newman 2.05
  • Kyle Larson 1.94
  • Aric Almirola 1.85
  • Paul Menard 1.24
  • Jamie McMurray 1.11
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.07

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Kasey Kahne 1.86
  • Austin Dillon 1.16
  • Greg Biffle 0.85

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Tony Stewart 3.99
  • Justin Allgaier 2.73
  • Danica Patrick 2.72
  • Casey Mears 1.68
  • Cole Whitt 1.43
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.33
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.67
  • Ryan Blaney 0.28 *
  • Trevor Bayne 0.23

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Reed Sorenson 6.74
  • Ty Dillon 3.20 *
  • Alex Bowman 3.04
  • Michael Annett 2.57
  • David Gilliland 2.34
  • Brett Moffitt 2.22
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.07 *
  • Jeb Buron 2.00 *
  • Ryan Preece 2.00 *
  • Landon Cassill 1.63
  • David Ragan 0.98
  • Josh Wise 0.88
  • Michael McDowell 0.40
  • JJ Yeley 0.27

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Homestead-Miami Speedway, Ford EcoBoost 400

The stage is set for the final race of the season. Four drivers will have a chance to proclaim themselves NASCAR Sprint Cup champion after this week’s race. Two of these drivers have won a championship before, while the other two are looking for their first championship. One of these drivers is the defending champion from last season. One of these drivers is going to start the final race of his career.

FORD ECOBOOST 400

If this race goes the scheduled distance, the four drivers who have a shot at winning this season’s championship will have approximately 400-miles to be in front of their three challengers. The other 39 cars on the track don’t mean much, leading a lap doesn’t mean anything unless it is the last lap and teammates won’t really be able to help.

I think this week, the other 39 drivers will race for the win, but they won’t do anything that can jeopardize someone’s chance to win a championship. They will race the qualifiers clean and they might not take chances around these four drivers like they might have at any other time of the year.

You could possibly see a teammate give up the preferred line on a restart to one of their teammates, but I don’t think you will see them blocking the competition for their teammates. If it comes down to the end of the race and you have a couple of challengers close to each other you might even see the other drivers just try to get out of their way.

The fireworks between competitors is over for this year. There will be no retaliation this weekend. There will be no wrecking of qualifiers on pit road by a non-challenger trying to get into or out of their box at the expense of one of the qualifiers. This is about four drivers and everyone else on the track knows it.

Kevin Harvick: I am going to pick Kevin to repeat as champion this year. Kevin has been the cream of the crop the entire season, he won this race last year when he had to along with winning races he needed to win to qualify for the next round of the Chase in each of the past two seasons. Kevin also has the best average finish at Homestead-Miami and I think this team has everything you need to be a repeat champion. The driver and the crew-chief communicate very well together and Kevin conveys the handling of his car so Rodney Childers knows what adjustments to make to the car to keep up with the changing track conditions. The pit crew is always consistent, Kevin does great in qualifying which lets him select a preferred pit stall and nobody gets excited early in the race. This is why Kevin will repeat.

Jeff Gordon: A four-time champion, Jeff would love to go out at the top of his game and be a champion once again. I think Jeff is the sentimental favorite this weekend. Jeff has finished in the top ten at Homestead in three-quarters of his starts here. However, I don’t think just a top ten is going to be good enough this weekend. A driver is going to have to finish in the top three to have a chance. He won this race three seasons ago so he has the confidence that he can get the job done. I think this team is going to be in contention from the get go this weekend and they will have the rest of the qualifiers nervous throughout the weekend. With Hendrick power under the hood, Jeff could get his fifth championship.

Kyle Busch: Kyle was my pick to win the championship when the Chase started. If my prediction is going to come true, Kyle is going to have to pick it up this weekend. After missing the first eleven races of the year with a broken leg and foot, Kyle won four races in five weeks during June and July and then fought his way into the top thirty in points to qualify for the Chase. He has run good enough to make it this far, but he is going to have to race at the level he was at during his winning streak earlier this year. I think Kyle will be the best driver on the track this weekend. The question will be will his car handle the way he needs it to for him to make the moves he needs to make to get to the front of the pack and win his first ever championship in the Sprint Cup Series.

Martin Truex Jr.: The final big story of this year’s Chase is Martin Truex Jr. Running on a single car team with a much smaller budget than all of the other Chase qualifiers. It is phenomenal to see a team like this that can compete with the high budget teams and I think they will have a good chance to win a championship this year. Martin always runs very good on this type of track. This team just needs to keep up with the changing track conditions and not fall too far behind during the race. No mistakes on pit-road for any of these teams if they want to be in contention at the end of the race.

I want to wish these four drivers the best of luck. Whichever one of them wins this year’s championship deserves it and will make a great ambassador for NASCAR!

For those of you who are leading your leagues, I suggest you stick with the four remaining Chase drivers this weekend if you can. For those of you who need to make up some points, don’t be afraid to take a chance on drivers no longer in the Chase field. You can’t catch those ahead of you if you have the same drivers.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Jeff Gordon

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Kyle Larson
  • Jamie McMurray
  • Kasey Kahne

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Ryan Blaney
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Jeff Gordon
  3. Kyle Busch
  4. Martin Truex Jr.
  5. Denny Hamlin

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 PHOENIX, QUICKEN LOANS RACE FOR HEROES 500

After the tire issues at Texas, you were left feeling very happy or not satisfied with the results last week. Those who went with the pole sitter Brad Keselowski had a shot in the arm in the standings. We now move back west to Phoenix, and seven Chase eligible drivers will be fighting for the final three spots. Phoenix is a track that benefits the top drivers, as the top five active drivers in average finish position over the past five Phoenix races are Chase eligible. My recommendation would be to front-load your lineup with Chase drivers unless you are in a desperate situation in your standings.

Even though the numbers show a high probability of success from the top drivers, you can take under-the-radar options if you need to gain points in the standings. Harvick should dominate the race. If you have been playing fantasy racing a while, you know to expect the unexpected. The season is almost over so there is little risk to swing for the fences if you need to gain ground.

Kevin Harvick has better numbers at Phoenix than any driver at any track. He should find his way onto most Fantasy lineups this week due to his dominating numbers. Harvick has won four of the last five races at Phoenix. Over this same stretch, Harvick has led 782 laps. To put that number into perspective, the 2nd best driver is Brad Keselowski with 159. In the 2015 race, Harvick led 224 laps on this way to victory. If those numbers are not convincing enough, Harvick has led the most laps of any driver in 2015 and has 20 top-5 finishes through 32 races. Harvick has also led the most laps on flat tracks in 2015 with an average finish position of 10.7 on this track type. You will likely not gain too much ground on your competition by inserting Harvick into your lineup, but you will not lose ground either. Harvick is on the bubble to advance, and this should keep his team from taking unnecessary risks.

There are four other drivers that will need to find your roster. By comparison, no other driver’s number will be close to Harvick’s. Joey Logano has the best average finish position of any driver in 2015 and has decent numbers at Phoenix. Over the past five races at the track, Logano has an average finish position of 10.6 and has four top-10 finishes. Earlier this season, Logano led 35 laps on his way to a 7th place finish. Logano has the best numbers on flat tracks this season. In nine races, Logano has eight top-10 finishes on flat tracks and an average finish position. Logano is closing strong as the season comes to a close and is expected to be a valuable fantasy contributor this week. It is all or nothing this week for Logano, and this could make him a surprise win this week.

Even though I can make arguments for a few non-Chase drivers, I want to have Chase-eligible drivers for the top three roster spots. Brad Keselowski, Carl Edwards, and Jeff Gordon all have impressive track data. Unless there is a convincing effort in practice or qualifying to change my mind, the 3rd roster spot will go to Brad Keselowski. The #2 car finished 6th at the track earlier this season and led 52 laps. Over the last five Phoenix races, Keselowski has four top-10 finishes and has spent 97% of his laps inside the top-15. He has been solid, but unspectacular for much of the season and maintains an 11th place average. Narrowly, Keselowski is a choice for my roster this week. I regret missing out of Keselowski last week. Like Logano, he will be going to broke this week.

There is little room for the remaining roster spots and no budget drivers I particularly like this week. Unfortunately, when a track favors top drivers as much as Phoenix, the flip side is that there are rarely good drivers at the bottom to pick from. Landon Cassill finished 22nd earlier this season and maintains a 31st average finish position in 2015. David Gilliland narrowly beats out David Ragan for the other budget spot. Gilliland finished 29th earlier this year and has been finishing in this range all season. I will likely switch these picks to low qualifiers in hope of gaining start-to-finish differential points because I do not like Cassill or Gilliland too much. I would be surprised to have the #38 car and #40 car on my roster when the race starts.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to keep us from starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the past five Phoenix races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how much value to expect from each driver. Jeff Gordon has been solid at Phoenix, but was beat out by Keselowski for the 3rd roster spot. As a consolation prize to the retiring driver, we will use his Phoenix numbers to further illustrate our formula. There is hope for the #24 team as last week’s consolation prize won the race in Texas.

JEFF GORDON AT PHOENIX

  • Average finish position last five Phoenix races: 7.8 equals 36.2 fantasy live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative One equals (-1) fantasy live points
  • Laps led: 53 equals 5.3 points per race
  • Fast laps: 75 equals 7.5 points per race
  • Fantasy Live points per race: 50
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $25.50
  • Fantasy Live points per salary cap dollar: 50 divided by $25.50 equals 1.96

Below you will find the numbers for each driver at Phoenix with my picks in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 5.69
  • Brad Keselowski 2.37
  • Carl Edwards 2.31
  • Jeff Gordon 1.96
  • Joey Logano 1.90
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.75
  • Kurt Busch 1.08
  • Denny Hamlin 1.00
  • Kyle Busch 0.52

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kasey Kahne 2.07
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.54
  • Ryan Newman 1.51
  • Jamie McMurray 1.49
  • Aric Almirola 1.41
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.19
  • Kyle Larson 1.16
  • Paul Menard 1.07
  • Clint Bowyer 0.90

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Greg Biffle 1.79
  • Austin Dillon 0.83
  • Erik Jones 0.16 *
  • Sam Hornish (-0.55)

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.59
  • AJ Allmendinger 2.56
  • Casey Mears 1.82
  • Tony Stewart 1.68
  • Trevor Bayne 1.66
  • Danica Patrick 1.07
  • Cole Whitt 1.04

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Joey Gase 4.00
  • JJ Yeley 3.64
  • Jeb Burton 3.40
  • Timmy Hill 2.80
  • Landon Cassill 2.60
  • Brett Moffitt 2.57
  • David Gilliland 2.10
  • Michael Annett 2.03
  • Justin Allgaier 1.68
  • David Ragan 1.47
  • Alex Bowman 1.25
  • Matt DiBenedetto 1.20

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Phoenix International Raceway, Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500

After a dominating performance at Texas this past weekend, Brad Keselowski still needs to win the race at Phoenix this week to move into the championship round of the Chase. That’s because Jimmie Johnson passed Brad towards the end of the race and took the win away from the driver who led 312 of the 334 laps run in that race. Brad remains nineteen points out of contention in sixth place in the standings.

QUICKEN LOANS RACE FOR HEROES 500

The final race in the Eliminator round will be held this coming weekend at Phoenix International Raceway. Phoenix is a one-mile flat oval track that was reconfigured in 2011. This year the track announced it will rename the track to the ‘Jeff Gordon’ Raceway for this weekends race in honor of the retiring driver. Jeff is the only Chase driver already qualified for the Championship round of the Chase so he can relax this weekend.

Kevin Harvick: I have to pick Kevin to win this weekend and move on to the final round of the Chase. The reason is simple. Kevin has won the last four races at Phoenix and five of the last six. Ever since this track was reconfigured it seems like no one has an answer for Kevin here and I don’t see that changing this weekend. If Kevin can stay out of trouble on the track and on pit-road and doesn’t have any mechanical issues, he will be able to defend his title at Homestead.

Brad Keselowski: As I stated earlier, Brad almost has to win this race to move on. He could get in on points if quite a few of the other Chase drivers have major problems during the race, but that isn’t likely. Brad has yet to win at this track, but he has finished in the top six in six of his last seven starts here. Look for him to push it to the edge of his limits late in the race to try and pull out his first win here.

Kurt Busch: Kurt is another driver who needs to win to move on. Kurt currently sits in seventh position, twenty-eight points out of the top four in the standings. The only thing Kurt has going for him this weekend is that he has won a race here during his career. However, that win came way back in 2005. Kevin could help Kurt out a little bit with his setup and some advice on how he gets around the track, but I’m not sure Kevin wants to give to much away as he needs to qualify for the final round himself.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie finally won another race this season and is always a threat to win multiple races in a row. He has always been good at Phoenix also with four career wins and fourteen to five finishes in his twenty-four starts at this track. Even though this team was eliminated from the Chase already, they still want to win races and get ready for next season. Jimmie won’t just give a race away to help anyone else out.

Joey Logano: Joey absolutely has no other choice than to win this week’s race if he wants to make the Chase. Even though he has finished in the top ten in his last four starts here, he is still looking for his first win. I’m not going to count him out, but I think he has a huge mountain to climb because there are so many other drivers that are in the Chase that have shown they are more consistent at this track and those drivers need the best finishes they can get too.

Carl Edwards: Carl is seven points out of the last championship round qualifying position right now. He needs to make up that many points on on fourth place Martin Truex Jr. if he wants to move on. That is if someone below him in the standings doesn’t win this race. Carl has two wins at this track and will be shooting for his third and hoping to fall no further than a fifth place finish at the least which will give him a chance.

Kyle Busch: Kyle won his only race at this track back in 2005 also. He currently sits second in the standings which gives him a very small cushion heading into this weekend. However, I don’t think any of these drivers will feel comfortable with the position they are in the standings until the checkered flag waves. Any small problem anywhere during this race can knock any of these drivers out of a chance to win a championship.

Martin Truex Jr.: This week is going to be really nerve wracking for Martin. He has started nineteen races at this track and his results haven’t been that great. He only has one top five and seven top ten finishes in those nineteen starts. While he doesn’t need to win this race to move on, he can’t afford to finish outside of the top fifteen. This team needs to do what they have been doing all year. Take what the track gives them early in the race and try to stay out of trouble and see what you need to do towards the end to move to the next round.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff will be the only Chase driver relaxed this weekend at Phoenix. His finishing position doesn’t really matter as he is already qualified for the Chase. He has won two races at this track during his career and has finished in the top ten here an astounding twenty-three times in thirty-three starts. Jeff has shown his consistency at this track throughout his career and he might pick up another win here this weekend.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale also has two wins at this track, but he hasn’t won here since 2004. This team has shown that they can race on any type of track this season and has also shown that even if they get behind for some reason during a race they won’t quit and they can fight their way back into contention. This team should be happy with the progress they have made this year and try to improve on that next season. A win this weekend would be a huge step for this team.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Kurt Busch
  • Carl Edwards
  • Jamie McMurray
  • Kyle Larson

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Erik Jones
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  5. Denny Hamlin

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Martin Truex Jr.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 TEXAS, AAA TEXAS 500

Matching the headlines for the last three weeks in the Chase will be difficult.

I am stuck somewhere between thinking Kenseth was justified to wreck Logano and upset because Logano was in every one of my fantasy lineups last week. We will see what else can happen this week in Texas, and Homestead will be interesting between the #22 and #20 if Logano fails to advance to the final round.

With only three races remaining in the NASCAR season, there is little opportunity to gain in your standings. Texas, Phoenix, and Homestead are all races that favor the frontrunners. Your best hope, if you are behind in the standings, is to select drivers who are under-the-radar and hope that you get lucky. My suggestion in Texas, like most weeks, is to front-load your lineup with the top-3 drivers and fill out your roster with two budget options. The next few weeks will be tense for Fantasy owners who are close in the standings, and choosing wisely will be critical as the season comes to a close.

For the top-3 spots, I am leaning towards drivers who are still in Chase contention. There are non-Chase drivers who can certainly find success, but I like to pick drivers who are racing for a Championship. Even with the events from last week, keeping Joey Logano out of your lineup is risky. Not only is he on a hot streak, but he also finds success in Texas. Over the last five Texas races, Logano for four top-5 finishes and maintains a 5th place average. He has only led 129 laps in this stretch, so he has seen consistent efforts that are not dominating. Early this year, Logano finished in 4th while staying in the top-15 for all of his laps. For large oval tracks, Logano has a 5th place average finish and has led the most laps in the series. Logano’s 7th place average finish position in 2015 is best in the series.

The combination of track success, season success, and track type success provides Logano with a high probability of success this week. The only risk with Logano this week’s is that the Martinsville drama carries over into Texas, and his performance is somehow affected. I do not anticipate this will be the case and am comfortable with Logano in my lineup.

For the second roster spot, I am going to lean on the driver who has helped my roster this entire season. Kevin Harvick does not have consistent success at Texas, but he did finish 2nd earlier in 2015. Over the last five Texas races, Harvick has two top-5 finishes and a 13th place average finish position. These numbers are not enough to convince you to roster him, but enough to show that Harvick is competitive in Texas. On large oval tracks this season, Harvick has led the most laps of any driver. Even though Logano now has a better average finish position now in 2015, Harvick has still led the most laps of any driver in 2015. Harvick is on the bubble to advance in the chase right now. Harvick is dominant on next week’s race in Phoenix, and I would expect a more conservative approach towards this week.

Jimmie Johnson was strongly considered for my 3rd roster recommendation due to his victory earlier this season. Down the stretch, the #48 team has finished worse than their average on a consistent basis so I am staying away from the team unless I see something in qualifying to change my mind. Of the Chase eligible driver, the one who finds the most consistency in Texas is Kyle Busch. Over the last five Texas races, Kyle Busch finish has three top-5 finishes and has a 5th place average finish. Busch missed the race earlier this season due to a broken leg. His numbers at large oval tracks and 2015 are not enough to warrant a start. Due to these number, Busch carries more risk than the other drivers suggested, but I feel he is the best option of the Chase eligible drivers. This is his best chance for an automatic qualifier and expect Kyle Busch to be aggressive this week.

Selecting three Chase eligible drivers uses the majority of my salary cap. As a result, the final two roster spots will be the best available budget options. David Ragan has not seen consistent success in Texas, with a 29th place average finish position over the last five races. With Kyle Busch’s team, Ragan finished 13th earlier in 2015. He is hovering around a 25th average finish position in 2015, and should provide enough value for his salary cap figure. There is not another budget driver I love, but will tentatively suggest Matt DiBenedetto until at least qualifying. DiBenedetto finished in 34th place earlier in 2015. This finish will only be value if he qualifies in the back of the field. I will keep an eye on qualifying and may start the 43rd driver in an effort to find value in start-to-finish differential.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format to manage the talent on our rosters. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Texas races. Next, we divide the average points earned by the salary cap figure to determine which drivers provide the best value in Texas. Jimmie Johnson narrowly missed my roster because I am keeping non-Chase eligible drivers off my roster. As a consolation prize, I will use Johnson’s impressive Texas numbers to further illustrate the formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT TEXAS

  • Average finish position last five Texas races: 6.8 equals 37.2 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Zero equals zero points per race
  • Laps led: 574 equals 57.4 points per race
  • Fast laps: 254 equals 25.4 points per race
  • Total Fantasy Live points per race: 120
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $24.50
  • Fantasy Live points divided by salary cap figure: 120 divided by $24.50 equals 4.9 points

Below you see the Fantasy Live rankings for each driver over the last five races at Texas. If you are wanting to take risks, you can take a driver with the 5th or 6th best numbers in hope that the unexpected happens. We are talking Fantasy racing, so there is always the possibility of getting lucky.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 4.90
  • Kyle Busch 3.01
  • Brad Keselowski 2.33
  • Joey Logano 2.24
  • Kevin Harvick 1.69
  • Denny Hamlin 1.55
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.23
  • Jeff Gordon 1.16
  • Kurt Busch 0.64

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.11
  • Clint Bowyer 1.86
  • Kasey Kahne 1.84
  • Kyle Larson 1.64
  • Ryan Newman 1.51
  • Jamie McMurray 1.45
  • Aric Almirola 1.29
  • Carl Edwards 1.12
  • Paul Menard 0.81

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Greg Biffle 2.33
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.38
  • Austin Dillon 1.20

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 2.68
  • Tony Stewart 2.35
  • Cole Whitt 1.84
  • Danica Patrick 1.69
  • Justin Allgaier 1.39
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.30
  • Trevor Bayne 1.17
  • Casey Mears 1.16
  • Ryan Blaney (-1.83)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Reed Sorenson 2.65
  • Michael Annett 2.64
  • Joey Gase 2.57
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.32
  • David Gilliland 2.24
  • JJ Yeley 2.20
  • Brett Moffitt 1.93
  • David Ragan 1.93
  • Landon Cassill 1.61
  • Michael McDowell 0.98
  • Alex Bowman 0.83