The last three laps of the Windows 10 400 at Pocono Raceway made significant changes to our NASCAR standings as we waited to see who would have enough gas to finish the race. My lineup followed the path of Kevin Harvick, as a rare misfortune buried me in the standings. Matt Kenseth’s team found a way to victory much to Logano, Busch, and Truex’s misfortune.
Congratulations to the Pavement Pounders out of the Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet league, who is now up to second overall in the Fantasy Live standings.
NASCAR stays in the north this week for the second road course of the season. You should not expect to earn many points from laps led and fast laps. Your best chance is to earn your points through average finish position and start-to-finish differential. There are some drivers who over-achieve and should provide value for your roster. If you look at the points per dollar numbers below, the results clearly point to leaning toward middle-tier drivers. As a result, I would recommend balancing your lineup with some of these overachieving drivers instead of the usual front-loading strategy. This may be the last chance for several teams to make the Chase, and I expect the closing laps to be as competitive as last season’s race.
My last Fantasy Live recommendations at a road course turned out to be a disaster, and we are rolling with a similar team this week. My first recommendation for your lineup is AJ Allmendinger. Allmendinger had a top-car in Sonoma before a mechanical issue shot him to the back of the field. He has a moderate price tag, and his 2014 victory at Watkins Glen qualified him to make the Chase. Over the last five Watkins Glen races, Allmendinger has an average finish position of 5.8 and 81% of his laps in the top-15. Over his career, AJ has four top-10 finishes in six races. He only has an average finish position of 23rd place in 2015, and that is keeping his salary cap low. He should provide great value this week in New York. Let us hope the results are more prosperous than the last time he was recommended.
Kyle Busch has had an amazing recovery from a broken leg. At the time of Sonoma, I held him out of my lineup due to the risk with his leg. After winning Sonoma and three other races, the worry over his leg has subsided. Kyle Busch has the most laps led at Watkins Glen over the last five races. He has four top-10 finishes in his last five races and an average finish position of 11.8. Historically, he has eight top-10 finishes in 10 races since 2005. Kyle Busch has collected three wins in his first eight races since returning. His lap-to-lap performance is good for fourth-best in the series. His recent string of finishes gives him great potential this week.
After watching Keselowski drive in Watkins Glen last year, I was surprised to see that he has not yet won at the track. He seems to be near the top when the race comes to a close, as evidenced by his three top-5 finishes in his last five races. Although he has not been as successful in the summer months, Keselowski has earned 11 top-10 finishes through the first 19 races in 2015. He is sixth in laps led this season. Keselowski is due to break his slump, and Watkins Glen is a great track for him to find his groove.
Casey Mears is another driver who was a disappointing Sonoma recommendations. He drove a little too hard, resulting in his entire brake assembly ripping off his car at the end of the race. He is back in my recommendations at Sonoma due to an average finish position of 15.8 over the last five Watkins Glen races. Mears has four straight top-20 finishes at Watkins Glen. Traditionally, Mears has worked his way through the field. On many tracks, I tend to ignore this number. At a track like Watkins Glen, you want someone who has proven the ability to pass. He only has an average finish position of 21.6 in 2015, which should translate to a valuable option this week.
With a few moderately-priced drivers in my lineup, I had more budget than usual for the final roster spot. My choice came down to Austin Dillon or Danica Patrick. In the end, I went with Austin Dillon because he is improving in the standings throughout the summer. He only has one run at the track, finishing 16th. He also passed 15 cars in the race, and he has shown the ability to pass in a limited sample. His average finish position in 2015 is a modest 21.3 and should be a value this week.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to keep us from starting the top five drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Watkins Glen races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap number to determine how much value each driver is expected to provide for your lineup. Danica Patrick missed out on the fifth spot of my lineup, and we will use her Watkins Glen numbers to further illustrate the formula.
DANICA PATRICK AT WATKINS GLEN
- Average finish position last five Watkins Glen races: 20.5 equals 22.5 Fantasy Live points
- Start-to-finish differential: Plus 18.5 equals 18.5 Fantasy Live Points per race
- Laps Led: 0
- Fast Led: 0
- Fantasy Live points per race: 41
- Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $12.50
- Fantasy Live points per dollar: 41 divided by $12.50 equals 3.28 points per race
Below you will find the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver this week. Recommended picks are in bold. We will use the 2015 history for rookie drivers with no history at the track.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Kyle Busch 1.63
- Martin Truex Jr. 1.58
- Brad Keselowski 1.50
- Kevin Harvick 1.45
- Matt Kenseth 1.37
- Kurt Busch 0.95
- Joey Logano 0.83
- Jimmie Johnson 0.81
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.80
- Jamie McMurray 0.72
- Jeff Gordon 0.71
- Denny Hamlin 0.24
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Kyle Larson 2.60
- Carl Edwards 1.85
- Clint Bowyer 1.22
- Kasey Kahne 1.19
- Aric Almirola 1.19
- Paul Menard 0.92
- Ryan Newman 0.72
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Casey Mears 2.86
- Austin Dillon 2.80
- AJ Allmendinger 2.68
- Greg Biffle 1.46
- Tony Stewart 0.91
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- Danica Patrick 3.28
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.84
- Sam Hornish Jr. 2.75
- David Gilliland 2.66
- David Ragan 2.39
- Cole Whitt (-2.27)
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Chris Buescher 4.00 *
- Michael Annett 3.83
- Alex Kennedy 3.36
- Landon Cassill 3.09
- Matt DiBenedetto 2.67 *
- Justin Allgaier 2.46
- Timmy Hill 2.20 *
- Jeb Burton 1.40 *
- Boris Said 1.30 (Currently not listed in Fantasy Live, based on $10 cap)
- Alex Bowman 0.90
- JJ Yeley (-1.10)
- Michael McDowell (-1.87)
* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.